EARLIER THIS YEAR IN JANUARY, THE UNITED STATES DESIGNATED THE WAGNER GROUP AS A, QUOTE TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION. IMPOSING NEW SANCTIONS ON THAT GROUP. THE WAGNER GROUP WHICH NOW CLAIMS CONTROL OF THE RUSSIAN CITY OF RAS OF ON DON IS AN ENTITY YOU'VE LIKELY HEARD ABOUT THE RUSSIA'S WAR EFFORT IN UKRAINE BUT YOU MAY NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IT IS. THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS THE WAGNER GROUP IS IN PART A, QUOTE CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION THAT IS COMMITTING WIDESPREAD HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES. THE WAGNER GROUP IS ALSO LINKED TO RUSSIA. IT HAS, ESSENTIALLY, BEEN A PRIVATE MERCENARY MILITANT FOREST FOR HIGHER UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL. BUT TECHNICALLY IT OPERATES OUTSIDE OF RUSSIAN LAW. THE GROUP'S FOUNDER IS A GUY, THIS GUY, NAMED YOU'VE GUINEA PRIGOZHIN. HE'S LEADING WHAT IS -- FOR A COUP, AGAINST THE KREMLIN. HE'S GOT CLOSE TIES TO VLADIMIR PUTIN. HE WAS ACTUALLY NICKNAME PUTIN'S CHEF, NOT REALLY A SHIFT, HE WAS A CATERER. THEY FIRST CAME ABOUT BACK IN 2014, HE PLAYED A ROLE IN RUSSIA'S INVASION OF THE DON BOSS IN EASTERN UKRAINE AND CRIMEA. HE ALSO HAS EXPERIENCE ON BEHALF OF RUSSIA AND CONFLICT IN SYRIA, LIBYA AND ELSEWHERE. THE WAGNER GROUP HAS A REPUTATION FOR BEING INHUMANE, COMMITTING HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSE AS AN ATROCITIES ACCORDING TO THE U.N., AND HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS. THAT'S CONTINUED IN THE WAR IN UKRAINE WHERE, ACCORDING TO THE WHITE HOUSE, WAGNER AT ONE POINT COMMANDED ROUGHLY 50,000 TROOPS, PLAYING A VITAL ROLE IN RUSSIA'S WAR EFFORT. ALSO, ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE FORCES ACTUALLY TRAINED AND ARE CONTRACTED AS MERCENARIES. THE REST REMAIN UP OF NEARLY RECRUITED RUSSIAN CONVICTS. THAT SAID, WAGNER HAS ALSO SUFFERED TREMENDOUS LOSSES FIGHTING IN UKRAINE, BUT WITH ALL THIS COMES POWER. AS WE ARE NOW SEEING PLAY OUT, PROVISION HAS BEEN RATHER BRAZEN IN PUBLICLY SPEAKING OUT ABOUT THE KREMLIN'S MILITARY FAILURES IN UKRAINE, OFFERING HARSH CRITICISMS FOR TOP RANKING OFFICIALS, INCLUDING THE DEFENSE MINISTER SERGEI SURELY DO, AND THE LEADER OF RUSSIA'S FORCES IN UKRAINE, THE CHIEF OF STAFF, GENERAL VALERIE GARAGE. BACK IN JANUARY, THE WHITE HOUSE SAID IT BELIEVED THEY WERE, QUOTE, MOUNTING TENSIONS BETWEEN WAGNER AND THE KREMLIN, AND THAT WAGNER HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF AS A, QUOTE, RIVAL POWER CENTER TO RUSSIA'S OWN MILITARY. JOINING ME NOW IS CALLING CARD, HE'S THE DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH FOR THE SEVEN GROUP, HE'S ALSO SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE CHAUVIN CENTER. HE'S AN ASSOCIATE FELLOW FOR INTERNATIONAL, AT THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR COUNTERTERRORISM -- HE'S AUTHOR OF NUMEROUS BOOKS, INCLUDING TERRORISM, AND THE FINANCING OF TERRORISM INSURGENCY AND IRREGULAR WARFARE. COLIN, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US, I BELIEVE THE STUFF ON GROUPS GOT A REPORT COMING OUT ON THE WAGNER GROUP THIS WEEK. I NEED YOU TO HELP ME UNDERSTAND THIS, UNTIL NOW, WE HAVE KNOWN THEM TO BE A MERCENARY GROUP, SOLDIERS FOR HIGHER, GENERALLY SPEAKING, HIGHER CALIBER SOLDIERS IN THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS BEEN ABLE TO RECRUIT FOR ITSELF DURING THIS WAR. BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED NOW? IS THIS, IN YOUR OPINION, SOME SORT OF AN ARMED REBELLION OR A COUP. ? YEAH OR CO UP >> THANKS FOR HAVING, ME ALI. ITALY APPEARS TO BE A CRUSADER MOTION BY THIS GROWING STREAK BETWEEN GOSHEN AND -- MILITARY LEADERS. UP UNTIL NOW, PRIGOZHIN HAS BEEN CAREFUL NOT TO THREATEN PUTIN DIRECTLY, NOW IT SEEMS HE'S CROSSED THAT LINE. WE'RE IN A FULL SCALE CIVIL CONFLICT, WE'VE GOT UNITS COMING IN TO FIGHT AGAINST PRIGOZHIN'S FORCES. IT'S A TOTAL MESS, BUT THERE'S SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IN UKRAINE, BECAUSE WAGNER HAS BEEN THE MUSCLE BEHIND A LOT OF THE TERRITORIAL GAINS, INCLUDING IN DOCUMENTS. BUT FURTHER AFIELD, AS YOU MENTIONED EARLIER, WAGNER'S ACTIVE AND PRESENT IN SYRIA, LIBYA. MOLLY, THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC SUDAN, VENEZUELA, AND MANY OTHER PLACES. WITH THIS CONFLICT, WHAT HAPPENS TO RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN THOSE COUNTRIES IF WAGNER IS NO LONGER A VIABLE ENTITY THERE? >> ONE OF THE THINGS THERE THAT BRING -- A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, HE WAS THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC, DEMONSTRATING HOW WAGNER ACTUALLY PREFERS TO WORK IN SOME OF THESE OTHER PLACES. THE SEEM TO LIKE TO WORK CLEAR OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY THEY SEEM TO LIKE TO GET PAID THE WAY THEY GET PAID. IS HALF PROMOTIONS BEEF WITH PUTIN ABOUT THE WAR IN UKRAINE IS IT ABOUT NOT GETTING THE EQUIPMENT THAT HE THOUGHT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO GET. IS IT ABOUT THE FACT THAT HE HAD TO DEAL WITH OR ANSWER TO PEOPLE IN THE RUSSIAN MILITARY WHO THINKS ARE INCOMPETENT? DO WE KNOW WHAT THE BEEF IS HERE? >> I THINK IT'S ALL THE ABOVE AND PRIGOZHIN HASN'T BEEN DRY BUT RELEASING THIS KIND OF INVECTIVES ON TELEGRAM WHERE HE'S SCREAMING AT SHOIGU AND MAKING COMPLAINTS ABOUT AMMUNITION. HE DOES WANT MORE CREDITS. HE SEES HIS FIGHTERS AS A SEPARATE VANGUARD, AND ELITE VANGUARD FROM THE RUSSIAN MILITARY. IT FEELS LIKE HE'S NOT GETTING THE SUPPORT THAT HE NEEDS, AND THIS IS ALL COMING TO A HEAD. FRANKLY, I'M SURPRISED IT TOOK THIS LONG. I DID SEE THAT REALLY EXCELLENT SUPPORT FOR RICHARD -- WHICH REMINDS US THAT WAGNER IS JUST MORE THAN A MERCENARY GROUP. I LIKEN WAGNER TO A SWISS ARMY KNIFE. THEY CAN DO A LOT OF THINGS. YES, THEY CAN DO OFFENSIVE COMBAT OPERATIONS, THEY CAN GUARD, PROVIDE SECURITY TO -- , BUT THEY ALSO HAVE THEIR HANDS IN EXTRA ACTIVE RESOURCES. THEY CAN HELP -- THEY ALSO RUN DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGNS FOR VARIOUS DICTATORS, SO THIS ISN'T A ONE TRICK PONY, THIS IS A REALLY USEFUL TOOL OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY, WHICH MOSCOW MAY NO LONGER HAVE. >> COLIN, LET'S TALK A BIT ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD HERE. WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR YOU PRIGOZHIN TO SUCCEED? WE HAVE UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT THEY MAY BE MOVING ON FROM ROSTOV-ON-DON. MAYBE THEY'RE KEEPING SOME PEOPLE THERE, BUT THEY'RE MOVING TOWARDS MOSCOW. THEY MAY, OR MAY NOT. THEY CLAIM TO 25,000 TROOPS UNDER HIS CONTROL. THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE TRUE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS FOR HIS TO EXCEED -- RUSSIAN MILITARY, WHICH IS AMASSING IN MOSCOW AND MAJOR CITIES AROUND RUSSIA TO PROTECT THE HOMELAND. SOMETHING MORE HAS TO HAPPEN. THIS GUY AND HIS RAGTAG BUNCH OF MERCENARIES ARE NOT GOING TO OVER SO THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT UNLESS OTHER GENERALS ARE THERE POLITICIANS, WERE POPULAR SUPPORT JOIN SOME. >> YEAH, YOU'D HAVE TO SEE IT LARGE-SCALE DEFECTIONS FROM UPPER REACHES OF VARIOUS RUSSIAN ELITE SECURITY SERVICES. I THINK IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WE GET TO THAT POINT. FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN, FAILURE IN UKRAINE AND THE QUOTE UNQUOTE SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE IS MANAGEABLE. FAILURE IN RUSSIA ITSELF WOULD BE FATAL AND SO I EXPECT THE KREMLIN TO MARSHAL ALL RESOURCES AT THEIR DISPOSAL TO PUT DOWN THIS UPRISING AND TO REALLY TAKE A NO HOLDS BARRED APPROACH TO WATCHING THIS REBELLION AND THINGS GET VERY BLOODY VERY SOON IN RUSSIA, AND I THINK WE'RE ALL WAITING WITH BAITED BREATH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. >> WHAT SHOULD MY VIEW ARE, WHO PROBABLY REFLECTS SOME OF MY VIEWS ON THE FACT THAT RUSSIA SHOULDN'T HAVE INVADED AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY, THINK ABOUT HOW ANY OF THIS PLAYS IN TERMS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE? I'M TRYING TO UNDERSCORE THE POINT THAT PRIGOZHIN WE'RE PROSECUTE THE WAR IN UKRAINE AS WELL. >> YEAH, ABSOLUTELY, SO I THINK THERE IS VARIOUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE UKRAINIANS NOW TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT GAINS, TO PRESS THEIR COUNTEROFFENSIVE. TO RETAKE SEVEN -- MOSCOW IS DISTRACTED, TO SAY THE LEAST, AND I THINK THE UKRAINIANS HAVE PROVEN A DEATH THROUGHOUT THIS CONFLICT -- AND WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE THEM ATTEMPTING -- EVEN FURTHER. AND SO THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT GAMES COMING ON THE HEELS OF THIS. YOU KNOW, REALLY A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR KYIV TO RETAKE SOME OF THE TERRITORY THAT THE RUSSIANS HAVE GOBBLED UP OVER THIS COURSE. I'D ALSO LIKE TO SAY, THIS SHOULD BE AN INFLECTION POINT FOR THOSE IN THE WEST, IN THE U.S., IN NATO COUNTRIES THAT HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED THE WAR UP UNTIL THIS POINT. THAT HAVEN'T SUPPORTED THE UKRAINIANS. LOOK, IT'S WORKING. WE NEED TO HOLD THE LINE HERE, BECAUSE RUSSIA'S CRUMBLING. ALL THIS SUPPORT, BOTH IN TERMS OF MATERIAL SUPPORT, BUT ALSO MORAL SUPPORT, MAKES A DIFFERENCE. >> COLLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR YOUR EXPERTISE, WE ARE NOW GOING, I DON'T KNOW IF YOU GUYS CAN RUSH THIS REPORTER COMING UP WITH, BUT I KNOW YOU'VE GOT A REPORT COMING OUT ON THE WAGNER GROUP. PEOPLE WERE ALWAYS INTERESTED IN IT, AND NOW IT'S IMPERATIVE THAT WE UNDERSTAND WHO THEY ARE. COLIN CLARK IS THE DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH
