Translator: Rik Delaet
Reviewer: Peter van de Ven What if false beliefs make us happy? We all know that sometimes
the truth can be unsettling, or hurtful, or disturbing. So does that mean that we should prefer to believe
in some comfortable falsehoods, if it makes us feel better? I want to make a plea
for the truth, today, for the cold and unvarnished truth. I want to try to persuade you that, no matter what,
truth is always better. Of course I know that in a lot of respects,
you already believe this. We care a lot about truth. For example, we are very much upset
about the spread of fake news, about the popularity
of conspiracy theories. We balk at the notion of alternative facts because of course, we realize
that there's only one truth. And we can be disturbed when politicians, for example,
try to tell us blatant lies. The word 'post-truth'
was even voted Word of the Year by Oxford Dictionaries, and this shows that many people
want to restore the value of truth to its rightful place in society - which of course is a good thing,
and I applaud that. But do we really cherish the truth
in our everyday lives? Or are we living in our own post-truth worlds,
our own post-truth universe? Sometimes, when I give
talks about this topic, I do a little survey
by way of a show of hands. I’m not going to do it today
because the surprising thing about this is that regardless of the age
and background of the audience, I always get more or less
the same results; so it's pretty predictable. So I present this dilemma to people: do you think that we all need
illusions to get by? That we all need illusions
in life to be happy? Or do you think that the truth
is always better no matter what? And as it turns out, a comfortable majority of people,
though not an overwhelming majority, thinks that we all
need illusions to get by, that in order to be happy, all of us need some sort of small,
little follies to sugar-coat reality, because in its full weight,
reality is just unbearable. People have this kind
of pragmatic attitude about truth. Of course, they say, true beliefs are often useful
to accomplish goals in life, but why do we have to be
so insistent upon the truth? I mean, what's so great
about reality anyway? And also, if it is true
that the truth can sometimes hurt, why should we want to expose
the illusions of other people? Why should we want to spoil it for them? This is a matter
of personal interest to me because I've been involved
in the skeptical movement, here in Flanders. Skeptics investigate all sorts
of irrational and weird beliefs, pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, etc. And I've even written a book
about this with my supervisor, where we play the role
of the doubting Thomas, and we demand evidence
for all sorts of beliefs. And every time
we arrive at the conclusion that there really isn't any good
scientific evidence for all these beliefs, and I listed a couple of them: creationism, telepathy,
conspiracy theories, homeopathy, belief in the afterlife. Now, even if we are right, that these beliefs are irrational, I mean, shouldn't it give us pause that perhaps these illusions
were actually beneficial for people? And if this is true, wasn’t it some sort of a reckless
and wanton act on our part to take away these illusions from people? Were we some sort of party poopers? Well ... I did a little bit of soul-searching
after realizing this, that perhaps we had caused harm by just dispelling
the illusions of people, and I took comfort in the wisdom
of the playwright George Bernard Shaw, who wrote, "The fact that a believer
is happier than a sceptic is no more to the point than the fact that the drunken man
is happier than a sober one." Phew! Well, that's all folks.
We can all go home now. Everything is fine. So I shouldn't have to worry about having dispelled
other people's beliefs. Well, OK, let's not be overhasty. We could of course make this shortcut,
but I think it's a little bit too easy. I think, of course it is relevant
that drunken people are happy. It's just that this is not the only thing
that we should take into account when we talk about alcohol. We know that alcohol
has both benefits and downsides, or as the great philosopher
Homer Simpson once put it, "To alcohol! The cause of - and
solution to - all of life's problems!" Now, I think we should apply
the same sort of utility calculus to positive illusions as well,
to beneficial misbeliefs. So, is the truth always better? And you can construe the word truth here
in the broadest possible sense. So this can be the truth about the fact
that the universe is expanding and that everything
will go to smithereens, or that we're all mortal and that we're all
going to die at some point; or very homely personal truths
about our individual lives. Now, if you ask people, the group of people who are convinced that we all need some sort of illusions
to survive and to be happy, if you ask them what sorts of beliefs
might be beneficial for people, even though they are false, these are the sorts of things
that they come up with: Belief in God? Might alleviate
our existential anxieties, let's say. Or what about belief in reincarnation? Perhaps it works even better
than belief in the ordinary afterlife. Or for that matter,
belief in a communist utopia. That might make us happy as well,
or it might be beneficial to society. Not sure about that. Belief in homeopathy? It may be completely
pseudo-scientific and false, but perhaps you can benefit
from the placebo effects, if you believe that it works. Or believe in yourself? The so-called positive illusions. Actually, I'm going to focus
a little bit on those positive illusions because I think that they make
for the best and most likely candidate for the thing that we're looking for,
namely beneficial illusions. There's actually some good
solid scientific evidence backing up the claim
that positive illusions are beneficial. Psychologists have found that all of us
are susceptible to self-enhancement. We all overestimate
our own skills and talents. Up to 90% of people, for example, think that they are
better drivers than average. In my own field at the university,
it's even worse. A full 94% of professors think that they are better teachers
than their average colleague. And to top it all, a full quarter
of the population thinks that when it comes to social skills,
they belong up there, in the top 1%. Everyone is above average,
isn't that great? Of course it's also statistically
very improbable. Well, I don't doubt that these beliefs
make you feel happy. I mean, who wouldn't want to believe that you're smarter,
and funnier, and more talented than the average person? And besides, modest. The problem of course
is that beliefs are not innocuous. They have consequences. They ramify in our worldview,
and they can have downstream effects. And these effects may be unexpected. In unforeseen ways,
your false beliefs about reality might collide with the world,
sooner or later. Now, applied to positive illusions, if self-esteem came in a bottle, it should probably
carry this sort of warning, "Guaranteed to make you feel better. Caution: unexpected
side effects may occur." Now, here's a question:
have you ever texted while driving? You don't have to confess it. Just ponder the question
for a little while. Well, if you have done so,
it might be because of overconfidence, as it turns out. And this is true, a true scientific fact. People who are overconfident
about their driving skills - remember the 90% of people from back a minute ago - take greater risks. For example, they will text while driving
or will even drive under influence because they think, "Well, this would be
a problem for a lesser driver, but of course, I can handle this;
no problem at all." This might bring your own life in danger
and also the life of other people. One of the most impressive examples of the havoc that positive illusions
can wreak is the First World War. On the eve of the First World War in 1914,
nobody was expecting a world war. Everyone was convinced that the war
would be over in a matter of weeks, everyone would be home by Christmas. And of course, everyone was convinced
that they were going to win. There was this very complacent belief in the superiority
of each nation and country. Of course, the result was
the terrible trench warfare that is now written in our history books. Overconfident CEOs
make worse deals, as it turns out, and actually, lower the stock value
of their company. So, if you're in a company,
and your CEO is elected CEO of the year, be careful because that's the moment
where things will start to go downhill, because then, the CEO
will really develop an oversized ego. The financial crisis, to a large extent,
was caused by positive illusions, by this false sense of security that these financial experts
had lulled us into, this idea that you shouldn't
worry about anything, all risks are under control because we have
sophisticated mathematical tools, etc., "Don't worry." And of course,
the king of self-confidence, the one who trumps everyone else
when it comes to inflated self-esteem, is the guy who heralded
the post-truth era in the first place: Donald Trump. Now, don't get me wrong,
I'm not against positive thinking, I'm not against setting your minds on a positive outcome
and making the best out of life. Of course, I'm also not against optimism. I wouldn't be standing here to give
a TEDx talk if I were against optimism. I think sometimes there are very good
and rational reasons to be optimistic, and I think that positive illusions,
so-called positive illusions, might actually hamper our success. So not only can we do
without false beliefs but false beliefs can actually be harmful. So to conclude, I do think
that the truth is always better, because illusions
are potentially dangerous. Even though they may seem
innocuous at first, sooner or later,
they can collide with reality. Positive illusions, of course, feel nice; I mean, who wouldn't want to have
the self-esteem of Donald Trump? Of course, it must feel great. But inevitably, they will lead
to disappointment sooner or later because reality doesn't care a damn about our wishes,
and desires, and illusions. Even worse, positive illusions
might inspire reckless kinds of behavior. So I do think that truth
is your best friend, and I can't put it any better than in the words
of Gloria Steinem, who said, "The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off." Thank you. (Applause)
