>> Steve: YOU'VE PROBABLY HEARD
ECONOMICS REFERRED TO AS "THE
DISMAL SCIENCE." IT'S ALSO WIDELY SAID THAT, YOU
CAN MAKE "THE NUMBERS" SAY
WHATEVER YOU WANT. STILL, IN POLICY, IN ELECTIONS,
IN EVERYDAY LIFE, WHAT "THE
NUMBERS" SAY HAS CONSEQUENCES. WHETHER IT'S GDP OR EMPLOYMENT
RATES OR INFLATION OR WHAT HAVE
YOU, ECONOMISTS WEIGH IN, POLICYMAKERS ACT, AND THE REST
OF US WONDER WHAT'S WHAT. SO, HOW ABOUT WE ASK SOME
ECONOMISTS TO TELL US: WHAT DO
THOSE STATISTICS ACTUALLY MEAN? LET'S GET INTO THIS. IN THE NATION'S CAPITAL:
THERE'S ARMINE YALNIZYAN,
ECONOMIST, ATKINSON FELLOW ON THE FUTURE OF WORKERS; WITH THE
WORLD'S BEST RECORD COLLECTION
IN THE BACKGROUND. ALSO, TREVIN STRATTON, NATIONAL
LEADER AND PARTNER, ECONOMIC
ADVISORY AT DELOITTE CANADA; AND HERE IN OUR STUDIO:
BENJAMIN TAL, DEPUTY CHIEF
ECONOMIST AT CIBC WORLD MARKETS; AND KAYLIE TIESSEN, ECONOMIST
AND POLICY ANALYST AT UNIFOR,
CANADA'S LARGEST PRIVATE SECTOR UNION. AND HERE'S WHERE WE DO THE FULL
DISCLOSURE THING. SOME OF THE PEOPLE WORKING ON
THIS PROGRAM, KAYLIE, ARE IN THE
SAME UNION AS YOU. PEOPLE TAKING OUR PICTURES, THE
PEOPLE IN THE CONTROL ROOM. SO WE PUT THAT OUT THERE IN THE
INTEREST OF FULL DISCLOSURE. Great to see you two again. To our friends in Ottawa, we're
glad you could spare some time
for us on TVO tonight as well. I want to start by showing two
charts and then we're going to
have some discussion about it because these charts purport to
talk about the same thing but
they actually show pretty different results, and this is
what we need to get our heads
around. Let's start with whether wages
are stagnant or robust. And for those listening on
podcast, I'm going to just
describe the chart we're seeing here a little bit. This is a graph. It's a line graph from the years
2013 to now. It's about wages and costs. And it looks at a number of
factors, you know, wages, labour
force survey, accounts, payrolls, hours, productivity
and so on. And what we see in this chart,
that with the exception of a big
blip when COVID started -- up -- and then a big blip down as we
got about a year into COVID,
it's a pretty flat line. Wages basically haven't done
anything for the last decade. But then we saw this tweet from
the University of Waterloo
economist Mikal Skuterud who said the following: "Claim was
real hourly wage growth has been
stagnant." His chart shows 22% growth over
23 years. That's a .9% annual growth rate
over 23 years. Real GDP per capita grew by 27%
over same period. And he concludes: "I don't think
this is what people have in mind
when they hear 'stagnant'." And this graph shows the same
line, but it's not flat. It looks more, well, it looks
like kind of a short mountain,
but it's going up from sort of bottom to top. It suggests wages are certainly
more robust than the previous
chart, and again, this chart goes back to 1998 to present
day. So it goes further back and it
shows a longer period of time. So, we ask ourselves: what does
all this mean? Who's right? Armine, start us off. >> Armine: OH. OKAY. FIRST THING'S FIRST. WAGES WERE STAGNANT FOR ABOUT 20
YEARS IN THE WAKE OF THE '81-'82
RECESSION AND THE '90,-'91 RECESSION. ALMOST ZERO WAGE GROWTH. THE FIRST CHART YOU SHOWED SHOWS
ROUGHLY 3% WAGE GROWTH EVERY
YEAR, ROUGHLY, UNTIL THE PANDEMIC HIT. AND THAT CHART COMES FROM THE
BANK OF CANADA, WHICH IS REALLY
WORRIED ABOUT WAGE PRICE SPIRALS TAKING OFF. IN OTHER WORDS, PEOPLE TRYING TO
CATCH UP THEIR WAGES TO HIGHER
PRICES, WHICH IS THE FIRST TIME WE'VE SEEN IT SINCE THE 1980s,
AND WE'RE NOT SEEING ANY
EVIDENCE, AS YET, THAT WAGES ARE STARTING TO SPIKE IN THEIR PACE
OF GROWTH. HIS CHART STARTS IN 1998. THAT'S ROUGHLY WHEN WAGE
STAGNATION ENDED. AND HE'S RIGHT, IT'S THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS CHART, WHICH THE
BANK OF CANADA WAS JUST MEASURING ANNUAL GROWTH, YEAR
OVER YEAR GROWTH EVERY YEAR, AND
IT REALLY DIDN'T BUDGE. BUT HE'S ALSO RIGHT. EVERY YEAR, AS WAGES GROW ABOUT
3% ON AVERAGE, THEN YOU ARE
GOING TO SEE A FAIRLY INTERESTING GROWTH OVER TIME. YOU HAVE TO COMPARE THAT, OF
COURSE, TO INFLATION, AND YOU
ALSO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT WHOSE WAGES ARE GROWING OVER
TIME. I GUESS THAT'S WHAT I HAVE TO
CONTRIBUTE IN THIS OPENING
VOLLEY. >> Steve: TREVIN, PICK THAT
UP, IF YOU WILL. THE CHARTS SAY THE SAME THING. I LOOK AT ONE GRAPH AND IT HAS A
FLAT LINE AND THE OTHER HAS A
SKI HILL. HOW CAN THEY BE SAYING THE SAME
THING? >> Trevin: I WOULD AGREE BOTH
GRAPHS GENERALLY SHOW THE SAME
THING, EVEN THOUGH IN THE FIRST GRAPH THE LINE MAY LOOK FLAT,
IT'S ACTUALLY ABOVE ZERO. AND SO IT'S SHOWING THE GROWTH
RATE EACH YEAR BEING AROUND 2 TO
3%, MEANING WAGES ARE GROWING EACH YEAR AT A RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT RATE BEFORE THE
PANDEMIC. WHAT WE'VE SEEN SINCE THE
PANDEMIC, PARTICULARLY IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, IS THAT EVEN THOUGH WAGES THEMSELVES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING STILL, THEY
HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH INFLATION AND PRICE
INCREASES. SO WAGES ARE GOING UP BUT YOU
CAN'T BUY WHAT YOU USED TO BE
ABLE TO BUY FOR THAT PRICE AND PROBABLY WHERE A NUMBER OF
ECONOMISTS WOULD DISAGREE IS
WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE, WHETHER WE GO TO THE PRE-PANDEMIC TREND
OR WHETHER THINGS CHANGE GOING
FORWARD. >> Steve: BENJAMIN, YOU'VE
SEEN THE TWO GRAPHS. WHAT DO YOU PULL FROM THIS? >> Benjamin: YES, SO LET ME
SHARE WITH YOU SOME TRADE
SECRETS. YOU KNOW WHEN YOU WANT TO FOCUS
ON SOMETHING, YOU LOWER THE
SCALE AND THE SCALE IS VERY NARROW AND THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN
YOU SEE THIS MOUNTAIN. AND VICE VERSA: YOU CAN ZOOM
OUT, AND THEN YOU DON'T SEE A
FLOOD. THOSE TWO CHARTS ARE BASICALLY
TELLING YOU EXACTLY THE SAME
THING. >> Steve: BUT THEY DON'T LOOK
ANYTHING ALIKE. >> Benjamin: I KNOW. AND THAT'S WHY YOU HAVE TO PAY
ATTENTION, WHAT IT IS. ONE OF THEM IS YEAR OVER YEAR
RATE OF CHANGE. IT'S RATE OF CHANGE. THE OTHER ONE IS THE LEVEL. THE RATE OF CHANGE, AS LONG AS
IT IS HIGHER THAN ZERO, THE
LEVEL GOES UP. SO FOCUS ON WHAT THEY ARE GIVING
YOU. YEAR OVER YEAR CHANGE OR THE
LEVEL. IT'S BASICALLY THE SAME CHART,
THE SAME INFORMATION. EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND WHAT'S
NOT IN THESE CHARTS IS WHO IS
GETTING THESE INCREASING WAGES OR NOT. AND WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT
THIS IS AVERAGE WAGE NOW. THE MINUTE YOU HEAR THE WORD
"AVERAGE," BE CAREFUL. >> Steve: BECAUSE WHY? >> Benjamin: BECAUSE "AVERAGE"
IS VERY CONFUSING. BECAUSE IT'S THE COMPOSITION OF
LABOUR AS WELL. IF YOU HAVE LESS PEOPLE WORKING
IN LOW PAYING INDUSTRIES, AS WE
HAVE SEEN DURING THE PANDEMIC, ACTUALLY THE AVERAGE WAGE IS
GOING UP BECAUSE YOU REMOVE LOW
WAGE/LOW PRODUCTIVITY PEOPLE FROM THE EQUATION. ALL OF A SUDDEN WE WERE MORE
PRODUCTIVE DURING THE PANDEMIC. NO, WE WERE NOT. BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT
UNFORTUNATELY THE PEOPLE THAT
LOST THEIR JOBS WERE LOW PRODUCTIVITY/LOW WAGE, ALL OF A
SUDDEN IT WAS ACTUALLY HIGH
WAGE/HIGH PRODUCTIVITY. BE CAREFUL. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
COMPOSITION. AND THEN, OKAY, WHO IS GETTING
THE INCREASE? LOW WAGE? HIGH WAGE? THE AVERAGE IS VERY MISLEADING. >> Steve: WE REALLY HAVE TO
DRILL DOWN DEEPER TO THAT NEXT
LEVEL DOWN TO REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON HERE THEN. >> Benjamin: AND THAT'S WHY
THERE'S NO CLEAR SIMPLE ANSWER. THE CHART TELLS YOU ONLY PART OF
THE STORY. >> Steve: OKAY. KAYLIE, YOU WEIGH IN. WHAT DO YOU SEE? >> Kaylie: I MEAN, I THINK WE
ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE
IN TERMS OF WHAT THESE TWO CHARTS ARE SAYING. ONE THING I THINK I WOULD ADD IN
TERMS OF WHAT'S MISSING IS NOT
ONLY WHO IS GETTING THE RAISES AND WHO IS NOT, WHICH IS REALLY
IMPORTANT. ANOTHER PIECE OF THIS PUZZLE IS
HOW MANY HOURS ARE WE WORKING. THIS SHOWS AN HOURLY WAGE. YOUR INCOME MAY HAVE GONE UP OR
DOWN BASED ON HOW MANY HOURS
YOU'RE WORKING AS WELL. AND IF YOU NEED MORE HOURS AND
HIGHER WAGES IN ORDER TO PAY
YOUR BILLS AND YOU'RE PERHAPS GETTING THE SAME WAGE AND
LOWER HOURS, THAT AFFECTS YOUR
ABILITY TO PAY AS WELL. >> Steve: ARMINE, LET ME
FOLLOW UP WITH YOU THEN. IF JEFF BEZOS, DURING THE SPIKE
OF THE PANDEMIC, MADE A FORTUNE
AND A LOT OF LOWER PAID WORKERS GOT LAID OFF BUT THE AVERAGE
SHOWS THEREFORE THAT EVERYBODY'S
WAGES WENT UP 3%, I GUESS THAT'S CLEARLY PART OF WHAT'S
MISLEADING ABOUT THESE
STATISTICS; IS THAT FAIR TO SAY? >> Armine: DING, DING, DING,
WINNER, GAGNEZ, YOU ACTUALLY GOT
IT RIGHT. >> Steve: Well, there's a first
for everything on this program,
okay? So what do we do with that? If you're a policymaker and want
to make policy based on what the
charts are showing but they look very different but they're
essentially saying the same
thing, what do we do with that information? >> Armine: I THINK RIGHT NOW
WE ARE JUST TRACKING TO SEE HOW
TIGHT LABOUR MARKETS, THE TIGHTEST IN HALF A CENTURY, ARE
TRANSLATING TO WAGE GROWTH. AND WHAT THOSE CHARTS SHOW US IS
NOTHING BIG IS HAPPENING AS YET. BUT WE OBVIOUSLY WANT TO KEEP
OUR EYE ON THIS BECAUSE NOBODY
WANTS THAT DREADED WAGE PRICE SPIRAL THAT THE BANK OF CANADA
IS SO WORRIED ABOUT. FRANKLY WE'RE PAYING THE PRICE
FOR THAT BEFORE WE'RE EVEN
SEEING IT, WHICH IS WHY IT'S PROBLEMATIC FOR ME, TO WATCH
WAGES GROW AT THE SAME PACE
THEY'VE BEEN GROWING FOR BASICALLY THE LAST 20 YEARS, NOT
MUCH CHANGING NOTWITHSTANDING
THE FACT THAT WE'RE AT 50-YEAR LOWS IN UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THEN
SAY, WE WANT TO COOL THE ECONOMY
'CAUSE WE DON'T WANT WAGES TO GO UP SEEMS BRUTAL, ACTUALLY, IN AN
ERA OF INFLATION THAT IS FASTER
THAN ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN IN 40 YEARS. >> Steve: TREVIN, WOULD YOU
AGREE WITH THAT ASSESSMENT? >> Trevin: WELL, CERTAINLY,
YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN SOME
CHANGES DURING THE PANDEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO WAGES, YOU KNOW, AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC WE
OBVIOUSLY SAW WAGES GO UP AND THAT WAS PARTIALLY BECAUSE A
NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT WERE IN
LOWER WAGE OCCUPATIONS LEFT THE LABOUR FORCE AND AS BEN WAS
TALKING ABOUT THAT KIND OF
SKEWED SOME OF THE DATA. WHAT'S BEEN SEEING SINCE THEN,
WE'VE SEEN WAGES GO UP FROM 2021
GOING FORWARD. ONE OF THE BIG QUESTIONS IS WHAT
HAPPENS NOW BECAUSE COMPARED TO
INFLATION, WAGES HAVE NOT BEEN KEEPING PACE. AND SO GOING FORWARD, THIS IS
GOING TO BE A BIG QUESTION, OF
COURSE, IS WHETHER WE ACTUALLY ARE ABLE TO GO BACK TO OUR
PRE-PANDEMIC TREND, OR WHETHER
GOING FORWARD IF THERE'S A DECOUPLING OF WAGES AND
PRODUCTIVITY, WHICH WE SAW MUCH
IN LINE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC AND WHETHER THAT CHANGES GOING
FORWARD. >> Steve: LET'S SEE IF WE CAN
FIGURE THAT OUT. SHELDON, IF YOU WOULD, CAN YOU
BRING UP THAT FIRST GRAPHIC
AGAIN, THE ONE ON PAGE 1 WHICH IS A PRETTY FLAT LINE AT WAGE
INCREASES GOING UP ABOUT 3% --
AGAIN, FOR PEOPLE LISTENING ON PODCAST, THERE'S A BIG SPIKE
AFTER COVID HIT WHERE WAGES GO
UP MORE THAN 20%. BUT THEN, KAYLIE, I SEE IN THE
FOLLOWING YEAR THEY DROP 10%. SO PEOPLE BASICALLY GAVE BACK
HALF OF WHAT THEY GOT. SO ARE WAGES IN FACT INEXORABLY
GOING UP IN A WAY THAT WE WOULD
WANT TO SEE OR NO? >> Kaylie: SO THE CHART IS
SHOWING -- THE DIP THERE IS
SHOWING WHEN PEOPLE STARTED BEING HIRED BACK AFTER THEY HAD
BEEN LAID OFF FOR THE LOCKDOWN,
SO IF WE'RE THINKING ABOUT PEOPLE WITH LOWER WAGE JOBS
BEING HIRED BACK, THAT MEANS THE
AVERAGE WAGE WAS GOING DOWN, NOT BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE TAKING LOWER
WAGES BUT BECAUSE LOWER-WAGE
PEOPLE, LOWER-WAGE WORKERS WERE GOING BACK INTO THE LABOUR
MARKET. THIS IS AN ANOMALY THAT WE'RE
GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT FOR
THE REST OF HISTORY WHEN IT COMES TO -- WHEN IT COMES TO
TALKING ABOUT WAGES AND LABOUR
MARKETS AND WHAT'S GOING ON. THERE'S ALWAYS GOING TO BE A
CIRCLE AROUND THAT. ONE THING THAT WE HAVE SEEN,
THOUGH, IS THAT WAGES ARE GOING
UP, LIKE TREVIN WAS SAYING, THEY WENT UP ABOUT 5.1% YEAR OVER
YEAR IN DECEMBER. PART OF THAT IS THE RESULT OF
PEOPLE BARGAINING HIGHER WAGES
AND PART OF THAT IS THE RESULT OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY MOVING TO
HIGHER-WAGE JOBS. SO DURING THE PANDEMIC, WE SAW
SOME PEOPLE LOSE THEIR JOB, SAY
IN HOSPITALITY, AND TAKE A JOB IN A HIGHER WAGE -- A HIGHER
WAGE JOB AND REALIZE THAT
PERHAPS THEY LIKED THAT JOB A LITTLE BIT BETTER, IT WAS MORE
STABLE, THEY HAVE A BETTER
SCHEDULE FOR THEIR FAMILY, AND SO THEY STAYED THERE. PART OF THE INCREASE THEN IS
MOVING FROM A LOWER WAGE
INDUSTRY TO A HIGHER WAGE INDUSTRY, AND SOME IS PEOPLE
WITH LOWER WAGES COMING BACK
INTO THE MARKET. >> Steve: BENJAMIN, WHEN
ECONOMISTS LOOK AT ALL THESE
NUMBERS, DO THEY ALL SEE THE SAME NUMBERS, OR IS THERE ROOM
FOR INTERPRETATION HERE IN THE
WAY THAT YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY? >> Benjamin: WELL, YOU HAVE TO
LOOK AT THE NUMBERS AND YOU HAVE
TO SEE WHAT MAKES SENSE AND WHAT DOESN'T, ASSUMING YOU DON'T HAVE
AN AGENDA, AND I THINK THAT'S
EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. NOW, LET'S LOOK BEYOND THE
AVERAGE. DON'T LOOK AT THE AVERAGE. SO WHAT WE DID, WE LOOK AT THE
QUINTILE, WAGE INCREASE BY
QUINTILE, YOU KNOW, 20, 20 TO 40, AND WE KNOW THAT MOST OF THE
INCREASE IN VACANCY RATES IS
AMONG LOW WAGE INDIVIDUALS. THAT'S WHERE THE VACANCY
INCREASES. AND PEOPLE SAY, "WHERE IS
EVERYBODY?" PEOPLE SAY THEY ARE ALL AT HOME
WATCHING NETFLIX. THEY'RE NOT. THEY'RE ACTUALLY IN THE MARKET. SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING. SO WHERE HAVE WE SEEN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE? BECAUSE ECONOMICS 101 TELLS YOU,
IF YOU HAVE A SHORTAGE OF
SOMETHING, THE RELATIVE PRICE OF THIS SOMETHING WILL GO UP. THE RELATIVE PRICE OF LOW WAGE
INDIVIDUALS SHOULD GO UP HIGHER,
STRONGER THAN OTHER CATEGORIES. AND IT'S NOT HAPPENING. WE'VE SEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE
SECOND QUINTILE, WHICH IS ABOUT
AVERAGE WAGE OF $22 PER HOUR. THAT'S THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE. BUT IT SHOULD BE DOUBLE. SO SOMETHING IS HAPPENING HERE. THE MARKET IS NOT WORKING. ECONOMICS 101 IS NOT WORKING. THE QUESTION IS WHY. >> Steve: WHAT'S THE ANSWER? >> Benjamin: WELL, IF YOU ASK
SMALL BUSINESSES THAT EMPLOY
MANY, MANY OF THOSE, YOU KNOW, LOW WAGE INDIVIDUALS, WHAT THEY
ARE TELLING US, THEY'RE TELLING
US TWO THINGS. ONE IS THAT MINIMUM WAGE WENT UP
IN 2015. WE SIMPLY DON'T HAVE THE
MARGINS. THAT'S ONE THING. THE OTHER THING THEY ARE TELLING
US, ECONOMISTS LIKE YOURSELF ARE
TELLING US THAT A RECESSION IS COMING. I'M NOT GOING TO INCREASE WAGES
JUST BEFORE A RECESSION, SO I'M
GOING TO WAIT. THAT'S I THINK WHAT'S HAPPENING. THE MARKET IS NOT CLEARING. THE MARKET IS TELLING YOU PAY
MORE TO GET THE PEOPLE AND THEY
ARE NOT. AT LEAST NOT YET. >> Steve: ARMINE, IT MAKES ME
WANT TO COME BACK TO THIS NOTION
OF INTERPRETING THE NUMBERS, WHETHER INTERPRETATION IS AS
IMPORTANT IN THIS REGARD. I GET HOW THE CHARTS CAN SAY THE
SAME THING EVEN THOUGH THEY LOOK
DIFFERENT. I GET THAT NOW. BUT I HEAR YOU SAYING WAGES HAVE
BEEN STAGNANT OVER THE LAST MANY
YEARS, AND I SEE MIKAL FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO SAYING,
"IT DOESN'T LOOK STAGNANT TO ME. IT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD TO ME." SO YOU BOTH CAN'T BE RIGHT THERE
UNLESS THERE'S DIFFERENT
INTERPRETATIONS ON THIS STUFF. IS THAT WHAT'S HAPPENING? >> Armine: I'M SORRY IF I GAVE
THE IMPRESSION THAT I SAID THAT
WAGES WERE STAGNANT IN THE LAST 20 YEARS. THEY WERE STAGNANT IN THE '80s
AND THE '90s. THEY DID START GROWING AFTER THE
WORLD ENTERED A SUPER COMMODITY
CYCLE AND CHINA CAME ONSTREAM AS THE LOW WAGE FACTORY OF THE
WORLD. CANADA REALLY WAS THE CART THAT
GOT PULLED BY CHINA'S OX. AND WE DID REALLY WELL BECAUSE
OF THAT. LOTS MORE JOBS IN LOTS OF
SECTORS, INCLUDING HIGH PAID
MINING JOBS, HIGH PAID EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES THAT ALSO
DID WELL. SO WE DID REALLY WELL FROM 1998
TO 2008. A BLIP IN 2008 BECAUSE OF THE
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS. AND THEN INSTEAD OF IT BEING
COMMODITY-DRIVEN, WE SAW VERY
LOW INTEREST RATES DRIVE A HOUSING/FINANCE BOOM FOR JOBS AS
WELL AS GROWTH IN CANADA UNTIL
THE PANDEMIC. THAT'S WHAT WAS PULLING OUR
ECONOMY ALONG, WAS FINANCE AND
HOUSING. AS YOU ALL KNOW, THAT IS NOT THE
SECTOR YOU WANT DRIVING THE
ECONOMY. IT'S A DISASTER FOR BASIC COST
OF LIVING. SO I DON'T WANT TO GIVE THE
SENSE THAT WE HAVE HAD STAGNANT
WAGES IN THE LAST 20 YEARS, BUT I DO WANT TO GIVE THE SENSE THAT
GROWTH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY,
NOTWITHSTANDING EXACTLY WHAT BEN WAS TALKING ABOUT. THE LOWEST QUINTILE, THE LOWEST
20% OF WORKERS, DID SEE SOME
MAJOR INCREASES FOR A WHILE AS MINIMUM WAGES WERE RAISED BEFORE
THE PANDEMIC HIT. WE'VE SEEN THIS HUGE THING THAT
KAYLIE HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT,
THIS ENORMOUS KIND OF DISCOMBOBULATION OF THE
COMPOSITION OF THE LABOUR MARKET
WHICH SHOVES WAGES UP, AND THEN DOWN. DON'T FORGET, THESE MEASURES ARE
ALWAYS YEAR OVER YEAR. SO THE REASON WHY YOU SAW A DIP
IS NOT THAT YOU'RE GIVING MONEY
BACK. BUT COMPARED TO THE COMPOSITION
OF THE LABOUR MARKET IN 2020,
2021 HAD A LOT MORE LOW WAGE WORKERS SO IT LOOKED LIKE ON
AVERAGE THE MARKET WAS GIVING
MONEY BACK. IT WASN'T. WE WERE JUST ADDING A DIFFERENT
TYPE OF WORKER. SO THE COMPOSITION OF WORK IS
INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT, TO
BENJAMIN'S POINT. AND HERE KAYLIE MADE A REALLY
GOOD POINT EARLIER TOO. THAT SOME OF THE WAGE INCREASES
IS COMING FROM PEOPLE GETTING
MORE FOR DOING THE SAME THING, AND SOME OF IT IS COMING FROM
PEOPLE MOVING ALONG TO A
DIFFERENT JOB. AND THERE WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN
THE COMPOSITION OF THE LABOUR MARKET. IT'S BIGGER BUT IT'S NOT A LOT
DIFFERENT THAN IT WAS
PRE-PANDEMIC BECAUSE PEOPLE WANT TO GO OUT AND PARTY, THEY WANT
TO GO TO BARS AND RESTAURANTS,
THEY WANT TO GO OUT AND TRAVEL, AND THOSE SECTORS ARE SLOWER TO
HIRE BACK PEOPLE BECAUSE THERE
IS A LOT OF TIGHTNESS IN THE LABOUR MARKET. BUT TO BENJAMIN'S POINT, YOU
KNOW, WHEN YOU ASK FOR A NEW
WORKER, YOU HAVE TO RAISE THE BIDDING PRICE, AND SO IT'S THESE
OPENINGS THAT ARE HUGE IN
SECTORS LIKE BARS AND RESTAURANTS AND IN TRAVEL THAT
ARE REALLY DRIVING PRICES UP IN
THE PRIVATE SECTOR. IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR, THERE'S A
LID ON IT. THERE'S A LID ON HEALTH CARE,
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST VACANCIES
THAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW BY PUBLIC POLICY DESIGN. SO YOU'RE GETTING A LOT OF
DIFFERENT THINGS HAPPEN. YOU REALLY DO NEED TO LOOK AT IT
INDUSTRY BY INDUSTRY. WAGES AREN'T STAGNANT. OPENING BIDS FOR VACANCIES ARE
HIGHER THAN THEY USED TO BE. WAGES DID GO UP BY 5% IN
DECEMBER OF 2022. AS OTHERS HAVE SAID, IT'S STILL
BEHIND INFLATION. THE QUESTION IS: WILL THEY KEEP
ESCALATING AS COLLECTIVE
AGREEMENTS COME OPEN FOR REBIDDING. THAT'S REALLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
YOUR EYE ON. >> Steve: BENJAMIN, YOU WANTED
TO RESPOND. >> Benjamin: TWO THINGS. FIRST, WHEN IT COMES TO LABOUR,
I THINK WE HAVE TO REALIZE THAT
IN A NORMAL RECESSION, LET'S ASSUME THAT YOU WERE WORKING FOR
LET'S SAY AIR CANADA. YOU LOST YOUR JOB. YOU WENT ON EMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
FOR SIX MONTHS. THE RECESSION IS OVER. YOU GO BACK TO AIR CANADA AND
EVERYTHING IS OKAY. TODAY, AFTER THREE YEARS, YOU
MOVED ON. YOU'RE IN A TOTALLY DIFFERENT
INDUSTRY. WE HAVE A MEASURE LOOKING AT
PEOPLE MOVING FROM ONE INDUSTRY
TO ANOTHER. IT'S RECORD HIGH. SO IF YOU'RE AIR CANADA, YOU
BASICALLY HAVE TO START FRESH,
AND THAT'S WHY IT TAKES SO LONG. THAT'S ONE THING. THE OTHER IS THAT WE DISCUSSED
WAGES NOW FOR 20 MINUTES. WE HAVEN'T MENTIONED
PRODUCTIVITY EVEN ONCE. >> Steve: I HAVE THAT CHART
RIGHT HERE. >> Benjamin: PERFECT. PRODUCTIVITY IS THE KEY. PRODUCTIVITY IS THE KEY. BECAUSE IF I GIVE YOU A 10% WAGE
INCREASE AND YOU'RE 10% MORE
PRODUCTIVE, THAT'S NOT INFLATIONARY. AND THE BANK OF CANADA IS NOT
WORRIED ABOUT IT. SO WE NEED TO SEE PRODUCTIVITY
RISING. AND IN THIS SENSE I'M ACTUALLY
VERY OPTIMISTIC. I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE
A WAVE OF INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS. I HOPE I'M RIGHT AND WE CAN
DISCUSS THIS FURTHER IF YOU
WISH. >> Steve: LET'S PUT THIS NEXT
CHART UP. SHELDON, IF YOU WOULD, MIDDLE OF
PAGE 3. BECAUSE WE ACTUALLY HAD A
CONVERSATION ON THIS PROGRAM
ABOUT THIS VERY ISSUE RECENTLY AND SOMEONE MADE THE POINT THERE
HAS BEEN A DECOUPLING BETWEEN
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY, WHICH WAS OF CONCERN, AND YET THIS
CHART, AND AGAIN FOR THOSE
LISTENING ON PODCAST, I'LL DESCRIBE IT, WE HAVE GOT LABOUR
PRODUCTIVITY VERSUS REAL
COMPENSATION. YOU WOULD WANT, AS BENJAMIN JUST
DESCRIBED, YOU WOULD WANT WAGES
TO GO UP AS PRODUCTIVITY GOES UP, AND THAT LOOKS LIKE WHAT'S
HAPPENING HERE. I MEAN, IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE --
THE LINES ARE TOGETHER. IN 2020 THERE'S A BIG SPIKE IN
TOTAL COMPENSATION. BUT THERE'S A BIG SPIKE IN
PRODUCTIVITY AS WELL. IT COMES DOWN, AS COVID ENSUES. BUT BASICALLY THE LINES MIRROR
ONE ANOTHER. SO, KAYLIE, ISN'T THAT THE WAY
IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE? >> Kaylie: IT'S A GREAT
QUESTION. I THINK WHAT WE NEED TO DO IS
LOOK BACK QUITE A BIT FARTHER
THAN JUST TO 2018 TO TELL THE FULL STORY OF HOW WAGES
DECOUPLED FROM PRODUCTIVITY. THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED WAY BACK
IN THE '70s. THERE WAS A TIME WHEN WAGES AND
PRODUCTIVITY KIND OF MOVED IN
TANDEM ALONG AN INDEX, AND THAT CHANGED BACK IN THE '70s. IF WE WERE TO ADD IN TOTAL
COMPENSATION, THAT WOULD INCLUDE
BENEFITS AND OTHER THINGS, WE WOULD SEE IT MOVED A LITTLE BIT
MORE CLOSELY TOGETHER. BUT, WE KNOW THAT PEOPLE HAVE
BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE. WHAT WE LIKE THAT TO HAVE COME
ALONG A LITTLE BIT FASTER? YES. BUT OUR WAGES HAVEN'T KEPT UP. SO ONE OF THE QUESTIONS IS, IF
WE'RE ASKING PEOPLE TO WORK
HARDER, WORK ALONGSIDE TECHNOLOGY AND THEY'RE NOT BEING
PAID FOR THE NEW SKILLS THAT
THEY HAVE AND THE MORE EFFORT THEY'RE PUTTING INTO THEIR JOB,
THEN THAT'S A REAL PROBLEM. >> Steve: TREVIN, DO YOU WANT
TO WEIGH IN ON THIS ISSUE OF
WHETHER WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY HAVE GONE IN SYNC OR NOT? >> Trevin: I THINK THAT
THEY'RE STILL IN SYNC AND THEY
HAVE BEEN HISTORICALLY AS WELL. IF WE'RE LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS
FROM AROUND 2022 TO 2019, LET'S
FORGET ABOUT THE OUTLIER OF THE PANDEMIC FOR A SECOND, REAL
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY WERE
GENERALLY IN LINE AND REAL WAGES WERE ABOUT .75% INCREASE EACH
YEAR, PRODUCTIVITY ABOUT .77%. ABOUT 40% OF THE GAINS FROM
PRODUCTIVITY ENDED UP GOING TO
LABOUR AT THAT PERIOD AS WELL. CERTAINLY DURING THE PANDEMIC WE
SAW QUITE A FEW THINGS CHANGE. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC
WHEN WE SAW, YOU KNOW, THAT
SPIKE AS WELL, CERTAINLY SOME OF THAT CAN BE WITH A NUMBER OF
PEOPLE LEAVING THE LABOUR FORCE. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN IN LOWER
SKILLED OCCUPATIONS AND THAT
MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PRODUCTIVITY IN THE LABOUR FORCE
AS WELL. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE GENERAL
TREND LINE, IT GENERALLY REMAINS
IN LINE. AND ACTUALLY WHAT MIGHT BE OF
LARGER CONCERN IS THAT BECAUSE
PRODUCTIVITY REMAINS SO TIED TO REAL WAGES IS THE PRODUCTIVITY
CHALLENGES THAT WE HAVE IN
CANADA. YOU KNOW, CANADA'S PRODUCTIVITY
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY ANAEMIC FOR
THE PAST MANY YEARS. AND GOING FORWARD, THE OECD SAYS
THAT IT'S GOING TO REMAIN SO AND
WE'RE GOING TO BE NEAR THE BOTTOM OF OECD COUNTRIES TOO. THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY BE ONE OF
THE DOWNWARD PRESSURES ON WAGES
GOING FORWARD. >> Steve: WE HEAR THIS ALL THE
TIME, THAT WE'RE NOT AS
PRODUCTIVE AS WE NEED TO BE. SO, BENJAMIN, TELL ME THIS: HOW
ARE PRODUCTIVITY NUMBERS
CAPTURED IN THE FIRST PLACE? >> Benjamin: THAT'S A VERY
GOOD QUESTION. AND YOU KNOW WHAT? THE PEOPLE THAT PUT THOSE
NUMBERS TOGETHER WILL NOT BET
THEIR PAYCHEQUE HOW ACCURATE THOSE NUMBERS ARE. IT'S A VERY DIFFICULT THING TO
MEASURE. THE MEASUREMENT IS THE RESIDUAL
OF SOMETHING, THE RESIDUAL OF
SOMETHING, THE RESIDUAL OF SOMETHING. IT'S SO COMPLICATED. I DON'T BUY THOSE NUMBERS. I DON'T THINK THEY'RE CORRECT. BUT YOU KNOW WHAT? THAT'S THE ONLY THING WE HAVE TO
WORK WITH SO WE WORK WITH IT. NOW, I THINK THAT CLEARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO PRODUCTIVITY, WE ARE
LAGGING THE U.S. BECAUSE THEY MEASURE THE SAME WAY AND THEY
ARE BETTER THAN US. SO SOMETHING IS UP HERE. HOWEVER, AS I SAID, I'M
BEGINNING TO BE MORE
CONSTRUCTIVE ON PRODUCTIVITY FOR A FEW REASONS. BECAUSE I THINK THAT UNTIL NOW,
LET'S FACE IT, UNTIL COVID,
PROFIT -- PROFITABILITY FOR CORPORATIONS WAS EASY. THERE WAS GLOBALIZATION. THERE WAS JUST-IN-TIME
INVENTORIES AND LABOUR WAS
AVAILABLE IN CHEAP. NOW EVERYTHING IS UPSIDE DOWN. YOU HAVE DEGLOBALIZATION, YOU
HAVE JUST-IN-CASE INVENTORIES,
AND LABOUR IS NOT AVAILABLE -- THE BARGAINING POWER OF LABOUR
IS RISING, I HOPE. WAGES ARE STARTING TO RISE. WHICH MEANS THAT COMPANIES ARE
STARTING TO SEE DOWNWARD
PRESSURE ON THEIR PROFIT MARGINS. WHAT DO YOU DO? YOU PAY OR REPLACE LABOUR WITH
CAPITAL. YOU REPLACE LABOUR WITH CAPITAL. THAT'S PRODUCTIVITY. I BELIEVE PRODUCTIVITY WILL BE
RISING OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS. BASICALLY WHAT WE SAW DURING THE
1990s. I HOPE THAT'S THE CASE BECAUSE
CLEARLY PRODUCTIVITY IS NOT
RISING FAST ENOUGH. >> Steve: DID I HEAR YOU SAY
THAT YOU HOPE WAGES GO UP? YOU'RE A BANK ECONOMIST WHO SAID
YOU HOPE WAGES SHOULD GO UP? >> Benjamin: ABSOLUTELY. I THINK THAT WAGES SHOULD GO UP
AND THEY SHOULD GO UP ESPECIALLY
FOR LOWER WAGE INDIVIDUALS WHERE THE VACANCIES ARE RISING. >> Steve: OKAY. ARMINE, THE REASON I'M ASKING
ABOUT HOW PRODUCTIVITY NUMBERS
GET CAPTURED IS BECAUSE, AND, LOOK IT, I'LL ONLY TALK ABOUT
WHAT I KNOW WHICH IS THIS PLACE
HERE. I KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN
SOMEBODY IS SICK, AWAY ON
LONG-TERM DISABILITY OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, OR SOMEBODY
FOR WHATEVER REASON, YOU KNOW,
ISN'T IN TO WORK SOME DAY, THE REST OF US SORT OF PICK UP THE
SLACK, RIGHT? THERE'S NOT NECESSARILY A BODY
THAT IS HIRED TO COME IN AND
FILL THE PLACE OF THOSE WHO ARE PRODUCING SHOWS AND AS A RESULT
THOSE OF US PRODUCING SHOWS
PRODUCE MORE OF THEM FOR THE SAME WAGES. NOW, TO ME, THAT'S AN INCREASE
IN PRODUCTIVITY. RIGHT? WE'RE PUTTING OUT MORE SHOWS
WITH THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE. DOES THAT GET CAPTURED IN THE
NUMBERS? I DON'T KNOW THAT IT DOES. >> Armine: I WANT TO ECHO WHAT
BEN SAID, WHICH IS OUR MEASURE
OF PRODUCTIVITY SUCKS. AND IT ALWAYS HAS SUCKED. AND I THINK THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN
TALK ABOUT YOUR SECTOR, STEVE,
IS TO HAVE LESS SUCKY WAYS OF MEASURING PRODUCTIVITY. >> Steve: IS THAT A TECHNICAL
TERM, ARMINE? >> Armine: YEAH. TO BEN'S POINT, YOU CAN SEE THAT
WE HAVE A DIFFERENT TRAJECTORY
THAN THE UNITED STATES USING EXACTLY THE SAME MEASURE. AND THAT'S SOMETHING THAT A LOT
OF MAINSTREAM ECONOMISTS HAVE
COMPLAINED ABOUT FOR DECADES. WE'VE THROWN THE BOOK AT TRYING
TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY: TAX
CUTS, REGULATORY CUTS, WAGE SUPPRESSION. WE'VE INTRODUCED TEMPORARY
FOREIGN WORKERS. THAT'S AN ASPECT OF WHY THE VERY
BOTTOM OF THE LABOUR MARKET, THE
VERY BOTTOM 20% MAY NOT BE SEEING ANY PAY RAISES, BECAUSE
WE'RE POURING LOW-WAGE WORKERS
INTO THE MARKET THROUGH IMMIGRATION AND THROUGH
TEMPORARY FOREIGN WORKERS. WE BROUGHT IN 1.2 MILLION PEOPLE
IN 2021, A PANDEMIC YEAR. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WHEN YOU'RE FLOODING THE
MARKET WITH POTENTIALLY LOW PAID WORKERS? SO, YEAH, WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT
THE SUPPLY SIDE. AND THAT IS ACTUALLY WHAT THE
BANK OF CANADA IS SAYING WE
SHOULD DO, IS FLOOD THE MARKET WITH MORE IMMIGRATION SO WE CAN
KEEP A LID ON WAGE GROWTH. TERRIFIC. BUT TO BEN'S POINT ABOUT
PRODUCTIVITY, WHAT THE PANDEMIC
ALSO TAUGHT US WAS THE ROLE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES. NOT EVERYBODY DOES REMOTE WORK. WORK FROM HOME WAS AVAILABLE FOR
40% OF THE WORKFORCE IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PANDEMIC. THAT MEANT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PEOPLE THAT WERE STILL WORKING
HAD TO BE IN A PLACE TO DO THEIR WORK. NOW IT'S AT BELOW 20%. BUT SOME OF THOSE 20% ARE SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PAID PEOPLE. SO IF YOU CAN DO THE WORK FROM
BARRIE, ONTARIO, WHY NOT FROM
BANGLADESH? I THINK WE HAVEN'T BEGUN TO SEE
THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL
TECHNOLOGIES ON DECOUPLING TASKS FROM JOBS AND DOING MORE
JUST-IN-TIME PLATFORM, YOU KNOW,
WORK, AUDITORS, ENGINEERS, ARCHITECTS, PEOPLE DOING
PARALEGAL, SEARCHING FOR
DEEDS -- ALL OF THESE THINGS CAN BE DONE FROM SOME PLACE ELSE
WITH THE EXACT SAME SKILLS BUT
AT MUCH LOWER COST, WHETHER THAT'S WITHIN CANADA OR OUTSIDE
OF CANADA. THAT WILL RAISE PRODUCTIVITY. I'M NOT SURE IT'S SO GREAT FOR
THE WORKERS THEMSELVES BECAUSE
THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT PAY THE BILLS FOR OUR HEALTH CARE
SYSTEM, FOR EXAMPLE, AND OUR
EDUCATION SYSTEM. AND THE OTHER PART I'LL SAY
ABOUT PRODUCTIVITY IS IF YOU'RE
LOOKING TO GOOSE PROFITABILITY, YOU JUST SIT BACK AND WAIT
BECAUSE YOU KNOW WHO'S GOT
HEALTH CARE IN THEIR CROSSHAIRS IS PRIVATE EQUITY AND INVESTORS. AND I'M NOT SURE WE WANT GREATER
PRODUCTIVITY AND PROFITABILITY
IN THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING PLAY
OUT IN REALTIME IN ONTARIO. AND SO THE HOLY GRAIL OF HIGHER
PRODUCTIVITY DEPENDS VERY MUCH
ON WHAT SECTOR YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT AND HOW ARE YOU GETTING IT
AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE
AVERAGE WORKER WHO IS GOING TO END UP SUPPORTING THE LARGEST
COHORT EVER OF OLD PEOPLE, YOUNG
PEOPLE, AND PEOPLE TOO SICK TO WORK. IT'S THE SMALLEST WORKING AGE
COHORT. YOU DO WANT WAGES TO GO UP. NOT JUST TO GOOSE PRODUCTIVITY
AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE BUT TO
PAY THE BILLS FOR WHAT WE NEED TO SURVIVE. >> Steve: BENJAMIN? >> Benjamin: Yes. I think that we have to put
things in perspective. I would like to share one number
with you. We created 600,000 new jobs
since the beginning of COVID, up
and down, about 600,000. All of them, basically all of
them, 100%, were University
educated individuals. All of them. That's amazing. I think that COVID opened up the
market for educated people with
skills. Before COVID we had a mismatch
in the labour market. We had people without jobs, jobs
without people. We had university educated
people serving coffee. We all know the story. Now, you are in Toronto, you
have skills, you cannot find a
job in Toronto. You can find it in Alberta, in
B.C., in New York -- zooming,
virtual. So COVID opened up the job
market for educated people. In this way I think that COVID
is an event as opposed to just a
condition. It's something that really led
to a significant change in the
way we think about the labour market. Now, this means that the income
inequality is widening. People with education getting
the ability to work everywhere,
while people in the services sector cannot do that. That's a major issue. >> Steve: ALL RIGHT. SO, TREVIN, HELP ME UNDERSTAND
THAT THEN. ON THE ONE HAND, IF WE'VE GOT
600,000 NEW JOBS SINCE COVID-19
HIT AND THEY'RE POSTSECONDARY EDUCATED PEOPLE, THAT SOUNDS
LIKE A GOOD NEWS STORY. BUT IF THE WAGE GAP IS WIDENING,
IF THE OPPORTUNITY GAP IS
WIDENING, THAT SURE DOESN'T. WHAT DO WE MAKE OF ALL THIS? >> Trevin: ABSOLUTELY. AND A LOT OF IT DEPENDS ON THE
SECTORS AND THE OCCUPATIONS THAT
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AS WELL. YOU KNOW, WE KIND OF DID A DEEP
DIVE INTO ONE OF THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS THAT WE GET ASKED FROM BUSINESSES AND OTHER
ORGANIZATIONS, WHERE DID THE
WORKERS GO DURING THE PANDEMIC? YOU KNOW, WE SAW QUITE A FEW
CANADIANS ACTUALLY END UP
LEAVING THE LABOUR FORCE AND RETIRING PERHAPS EARLIER THAN
THEY HAD INITIALLY PLANNED AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC. WE ACTUALLY SAW AN INCREASE IN
THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION
FOR RATE OF CORE AGE CANADIANS, PEOPLE 25 TO 54, BUT IT DIDN'T
OFFSET THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT
RETIRED. AND THEN, THIRD, WE SAW THIS
MISMATCH TAKING PLACE IN THE
LABOUR MARKET BETWEEN THE SKILLS THAT ARE BEING DEMANDED AND THE
SKILLS THAT ARE BEING SUPPLIED
WHEN IT COMES TO PEOPLE COMING OUT OF UNIVERSITY AND
EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS AS WELL. AND SO SOME OF THIS IS WHAT'S
KIND OF PUTTING THE UPWARD
PRESSURE ON WAGES WE'VE SEEN DURING THE PANDEMIC,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF YEARS AS WELL, WHICH HAS HAD AN IMPACT BUT IT'S ALSO
KIND OF STRADDLED BETWEEN
DIFFERENT OCCUPATIONS. SO A NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT LEFT
THE LABOUR FORCE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC WERE IN LOWER WAGE, LOWER SKILLED
OCCUPATIONS, AND MIGHT HAVE
TAKEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO RESKILL OR UPSKILL INTO NEW POSITIONS
GOING FORWARD AS WELL. AND SO THIS IS KIND OF THE NEW
DYNAMIC WE'RE SEEING TAKING
PLACE IN THE ECONOMY. >> Steve: OKAY. KAYLIE, THIS FEELS LIKE THE
RIGHT QUESTION FOR A LABOUR
ECONOMIST, OKAY? >> Kaylie: ALL RIGHT. >> Steve: POSTSECONDARY. WE'VE HEARD TALK NOW ABOUT
EDUCATION AND ABOUT THE GAP IN
EDUCATION. ALL OF THE JOBS SEEM TO BE GOING
TO PEOPLE WHO GOT BETTER AS
OPPOSED TO WORSE EDUCATION SINCE COVID-19 HIT. IF THERE IS A SKILLS GAP BETWEEN
WHAT WORKERS HAVE AND WHAT
EMPLOYERS WANT, WHOSE JOB IS IT TO FIX THAT GAP? >> Kaylie: IF WE COULD ANSWER
THAT QUESTION IN ONE SENTENCE. I THINK IT'S THE RESPONSIBILITY
OF ALL DIFFERENT SECTORS TO WORK
TOGETHER TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM, AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST
IS WORKERS, INDIVIDUALS, HAVE
BEEN ASKED TO FILL THE HOLE GAP THEMSELVES. WE HAVE THE HIGHEST, MOST
EDUCATED WORKFORCE IN THE WORLD,
AND WE'RE SEEING MORE PEOPLE GET JOBS IN THEIR FIELDS
POTENTIALLY, SO THAT'S GREAT. AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE GOING TO
BE GOING THROUGH A MAJOR
TRANSITION. WE'RE SEEING THE TRANSITION
RIGHT NOW IN THE AUTO SECTOR. WE'RE MOVING TO ELECTRIC
VEHICLES, FOR EXAMPLE. AND THAT MEANS THAT A LOT OF
PEOPLE NEED TO BE RETRAINED. NOW, ARE WE GOING TO SEND THEM
BACK TO UNIVERSITY IN ORDER TO
GET THIS NEW SKILL, OR ARE EMPLOYERS, WHO HAVE THE
WORKFORCE RIGHT THERE AND READY,
GOING TO PROVIDE THE TRAINING THAT IS NECESSARY TO BRING THEM
UP TO SPEED TO BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE THIS NEW CAR? SO THAT'S KIND OF AT THE MICRO
LEVEL. WE'VE SEEN INVESTMENT IN
TRAINING ON THE JOB DECLINE
QUITE A BIT IN THE LAST FEW DECADES, AND THAT'S ONE AREA
WHERE THE RESPONSIBILITY HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN ABDICATED. I ALSO HEAR PEOPLE SAY ALL THE
TIME THAT WORKERS AREN'T CAPABLE
OF LEARNING -- >> Steve: WHO SAID THAT? >> Kaylie: OR OLDER PEOPLE,
IT'S SO HARD FOR OLDER PEOPLE TO
LEARN. IT'S SOMETHING THAT COMES UP IN
PANELS AND DISCUSSIONS ALL THE
TIME. BUT I TOTALLY DISAGREE WITH
THAT. PEOPLE ARE CAPABLE OF LEARNING. WHERE YOU ARE ON THE SCALE OF
WHAT YOU KNOW AND WHAT YOU HAVE
TO LEARN MIGHT DIFFER DRAMATICALLY, AND ALSO HOW LONG
YOU'VE BEEN OUT OF SCHOOL AND
THE LAST TIME YOU LEARNED A NEW SKILL MIGHT DIFFER DRAMATICALLY. SO THERE'S A WHOLE KIND OF
CONVEYOR BELT THAT YOU NEED TO
FIGURE OUT WHERE YOU'RE JUMPING ONTO, AND IT'S OUR
RESPONSIBILITY AS POLICYMAKERS,
AS GOVERNMENT, AS EMPLOYERS TO GET TOGETHER AND ACTUALLY DESIGN
A PROGRAM THAT HELPS PEOPLE GET
ON THE TREADMILL SO THAT THEY CAN LEARN THESE NEW SKILLS. >> Steve: FAST FOLLOW-UP IN
OUR LAST 30 SECONDS HERE. IF YOU'VE BEEN LET'S SAY WORKING
ON THE ASSEMBLY LINE IN WINDSOR
FOR 30 YEARS BUILDING INTERNAL COMBUSTION CARS AND ALL OF A
SUDDEN YOU HAVE TO BUILD EV
CARS, DO YOU THINK THE EMPLOYER HAS THE CAPABILITY OF TEACHING
THE EMPLOYEE AND DOES THE
EMPLOYEE HAVE THE SKILL TO LEARN HOW TO BUILD A WHOLE NEW KIND OF
CAR AT THE AGE OF 57, LET'S SAY? >> Kaylie: 100 PERCENT YES,
100 PERCENT YES. AND THIS TRANSITION CERTAINLY IS
HAPPENING IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES,
BUT WE ALSO SEE IT IN SECTORS -- IN EVERY SECTOR, WHETHER YOU'RE
BEING ASKED TO WORK ALONGSIDE
NEW TECHNOLOGY, BIOMETRICS IN AIRPORTS IS SOMETHING THAT WE'RE
SEEING COME ONLINE QUITE A BIT
MORE NOW. ONE THING THAT WE TALK ABOUT AT
WORK ALL THE TIME IS KIND OF OUR
TAGLINE WHEN WE'RE THINKING ABOUT NEW TECHNOLOGY: HOW DO YOU
GET THE BEST OF TECHNOLOGY WHEN
YOU'RE AT WORK AND AVOID THE WORST OF TECHNOLOGY WHEN YOU'RE
AT WORK? BECAUSE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
SOMETHING NEW THAT WILL ENHANCE
PRODUCTIVITY CAN GO REALLY POORLY, AND THEN WE SEE ALL OF
THE INCREASE GO TO PROFIT AND
THAT'S WHEN INEQUALITY IS RISING. >> Steve: IF YOU FIGURE THAT
OUT, LET US KNOW. >> Kaylie: NO PROBLEM. >> Steve: THAT'S A KEY
QUESTION. NO PROBLEM. THANKS TO OUR GUESTS IN OTTAWA,
ARMINE YALNIZYAN AND TREVIN
STRATTON AND KAYLIE TIESSEN AND BENJAMIN TAL. GREAT TO HAVE YOU ON TVO
TONIGHT. MANY THANKS.
