WHAT’s the Issue NOW?!

earlier this year Boeing's CEO went out publicly and said that they would potentially cancel the 737 Max 10 model altogether now why would he say that about an aircraft which had already accumulated many hundreds of orders from several Airlines is there a possibility that Boeing could be better off without it and if that's the case why stay tuned [Music] it has now been almost two years since the Boeing 737 Max was ungrounded in the United States the type had spent about a year and a half on the ground after the two terrible crashes that took place in Indonesia and Ethiopia back in 2018 and 2019. during the groundings Boeing put in a huge effort and they did several modifications of aircraft systems new pilot training and extensive testing before the aircraft made a successful comeback almost everywhere in the worlds about two years ago this summer even Russia ungrounded Max however they likely did that only to allow one single yet from bellavia the Belarusian flag carrier to fly into the country so right now China is the only major Market left to return the Jets to its service even though China's Aviation regulator technically approved the max back in December last year it's returned to service in China largely depends on how the lockdown policies affect China's travel demand and there has been some recent indications that things might happen soon on that front when you're watching this the max is might actually already be flying over there I don't know however what might not be obvious for everyone is that this comeback for the 77 Max only involved the two variants of the jet that had already been in service before the grounding happened that was the max 8 and the larger Max 9. this means that there are still two variants who haven't entered service yet and those are the max 7 which is the smallest of the line and the max 10 the longer variant originally Boeing's plan was that the max 7 would enter service in 2019 and the max 10 in 2020 but those plans were already delayed before the grounding happened after that obviously even more delays came into play but both of these Max variants have already flown the max 7 did its first flag back in 2018 and the max 10 early in the summer of 2021 so what's actually going on well when the fa ungrounded the existing 737 Max variants late in 2020. everyone expected that the max 7 would get certified within a few months and that the max 10 would follow a bit later sometime early in 2022 however that didn't happen that was partly because of the pandemic which affected the engineering work for both Boeing and the FEA but that wasn't really the full story another important reason was that one of the discoveries made in the investigation following the 77 Max grounding was that the FAA had relied on a lot of Boeing's own internal Engineers for significant portions of the aircraft certification process that fact has changed dramatically since then now the fva itself has to do a lot of this certification work and obviously this puts a much more workload on their own personnel which slows down the process also with more key work now being done by the FAA the way that the agency and Boeing communicate with each other has changed and that introduced more speed bumps and misunderstandings between the two as they work towards the new certifications went on and of course after the groundings happened other Aviation authorities around the world started looking over faa's shoulders very closely so at the moment no one wants to hurry things up and that's fundamentally a good thing in any case the latest information we have indicates that the max 7 will be certified either in December this year or early in 2023 and the max 10 won't get certified until earliest next summer in 2023 and that spelled serious problems for Boeing because under current regulations if they can't certify both of these types in 2022 they will struggle to get them certified at all why is that well I'm going to tell you all about that after this short message from my sponsor do you know what else is worth watching the show is over on curiosity stream today's sponsor curiosity stream is a subscription streaming service with thousands of documentaries and non-fiction titles from some of the best filmmakers in the world curiosity stream is the entertainment brand for people who want to know more and they offer content for everyone including topics like science nature history technology music and sports right now I am watching an original series called oddly satisfying science hosted by Nick uhas as the name suggests each episode introduces satisfying experiments designed to blow your mind from explaining how forensic teams extract DNA to how hot air balloons actually work what I like most about curiosity's dream is that it adds new shows every single week and it's available worldwide on almost every possible device and now they're offering a fantastic deal for you guys my subscribers that will save you 25 off the normal price meaning only 14.99 dollars a year or 1.25 cents per month which is insanely good value so go to curiositystream.com Mentor now that's curiositystream.com Mentor now or click on the link here below and use the promo code Mentor now for unlimited access to your new favorite shows now back to the video when the FAA ungrounded the existing 77 Max models day along with other government bodies like the NTSB recommended that certain changes had to be made in the way that aircraft was being certified these changes was very far-reaching involving things like what type of work the FBA can or cannot delegate and also various changes that needed to be implemented in some aircraft systems in December of 2020 a bit over a month after the FAA ungrounded the 737 Max the United States Congress voted for a lower called the aircraft certification safety and accountability Act this law formalized these changes which included among other things a requirement for newly certified aircraft to have an engine indicating and crew alerting system or acas fitted to them acas is a system that presents all alerts and warnings to pilots in a centralized way in one display in the cockpit and this system has evolved and changed over time and the way it's implemented and used in different aircraft types can vary a little bit for example in some aircraft acast will help direct Pilots to the correct checklist in their quick reference handbook while in others acas can display the correct checklist directly on the screen and even show the pilots which Step they have to do and which steps they have already completed it's a very handy system the obvious advantages of acres is that it helps Pilots identify problems quicker it reduces the possibility for confusion and provided it is designed correctly it helps Pilots to prioritize when they're dealing with multiple system failures at the same time none of the current 737 Max variants have a cast and that's because no Boeing 737s before it were fitted with the maida obviously the 737 still presents alerts and warnings to the pilots but that's done through an older system called the master caution system and that puts much more emphasis on the Pilot's troubleshooting skills as well as their technical knowledge now it is important to note here that the purpose of acas is not to change what systems is sending warnings it is all about how to alert and present this information to the pilots trying to make it as clear and streamlined as possible the new requirement for acas in all new aircraft types certified by the FAA comes into effect on December the 28th 2022. that's just a few weeks away from now and the reason that the start of this law was delayed from 2020 until now had to do specifically with the certification of the remaining 737 Max variants so it's important to point out here that it was not the intention of the lawmakers to create a certification difference between the different Max models remember the FEA had already returned to Max 8 and Max 9 models to service when the law was voted through in 2020 and these aircrafts have the same crew alerting systems as the new Max 7 and Max 10 is supposed to have but as it stands right now unless Boeing can get them certified this year the new variants could end up having to follow this new certification path since the lower is now coming into effect and that's a huge problem and I'll tell you why most Airline customers of the new Max 7 or 10 might also have one or both of the older Max models in their Fleet not only that they might also have some 77 NGS with the same crew alerting system as the max 8 and 9 models and using the same typewriting if a new standard is subtly introduced for these two newer variants it could potentially be a major obstacle for any operator wanting to use these new models in their Fleet and the reason for that is that complying with the new crew alerting requirements wouldn't only change the layout of these Warning Systems it could also require changes in other elements of the cockpits like the colors of various lights but more importantly the change could require a complete overall of the pilot training and standard operating procedures needed for these aircraft Boeing documents that have recently become public shows that Boeing originally thought that introducing a cast to the 77 Max family would represent a major certification risk even if it was applied to all of the max variants they stated that this was in part because it would strain demands on pilot training in Pilot currency translation well we haven't been able to confirm this but it is quite possible that these changes could require Pilots to have to go through a new type rating for the max 7 and Max 10 variant if this were to happen and that would likely be a complete show stopper for these two aircraft just imagine having to retrain all pilots who are flying on the other Max variants for two months or more just so that they could fly these two new variants of the same aircraft so what options does Boeing actually have here well the most obvious answer is that Boeing will seek to extend the deadline to certify its two remaining 737 Maxes to avoid having to implement this new crew alerting system Dominic gates in the Seattle Times revealed that Boeing was already working on trying to achieve this back in March this year to make this happen American legislators would need to approve or change in this law from 2020 but that's the backup plan the primary target for Boeing is still to try to get the certification done as soon as it's humanly possible and in order to do this they have for example during this summer almost stopped the development of its triple 7x aircraft to divert engineers and other resources over to the certification of the 77 Max 7 and 10. the triple 7x faces its own multi-year delays and with that obviously dissatisfied customers so to take that decision and potentially set the triple 7x back at least another year possibly two couldn't have been an easy decision for Boeing to take and even after having done this it is highly unlikely that they will actually succeed to get these certifications done in time but there are some good news for boring here though it has recently become clear that even though some American lawmakers were not in favor of granting a deadline extension other lawmakers are and many more are willing to go along with it if the FAA agrees that it's the best way to go remember the original intent of that law was not to impact any of the 737 Max variants that's why the introduction of acas and the rest of the crew alerting requirements was postponed until the end of 2022 uh the lay that the lawmakers assumed would give ample time for Boeing to get the two remaining models certified this is a really important point that many are making today including Robert sumwalt who was the chairman of the ntsp when the board's recommendation for the law came in 2020 someone who before joining the NTSB flew the 7-7 and other Jets as an airline pilot stated that having a common alerting systems for all 737s is actually quite important for safety acas might help Pilots avoid confusion in an emergency but a mixed aircraft Fleet with different Warning Systems in otherwise very similar aircraft might potentially introduce confusion if Boeing can't get an extension its other option would likely be to cancel the 737x10 and if the max 7 doesn't get certified in December the same would go for that variant as well the max 7 has relatively few orders in the pipeline but Max 10 is a completely different matter Boeing has around 900 orders and provisional agreements for the max 10 and the real number might even be higher than that because the exact number of orders is unclear Boeing doesn't always break down its orders by specific variants of each model family including the 77 Max so knowing for sure is a little bit complicated in any case Boeing has so many orders for this aircraft that canceling all of them would seem utterly impossible wouldn't it well the thing is like I mentioned in the beginning of the video that back in July Boeing's CEO David Calhoun actually did say that Boeing could cancel the max 10 if it doesn't get this deadline extension that they're asking for they also restated that in a recent filing and confirmed that it will also apply to the max 7. if that would happen many Boeing customers would likely be allowed to switch their orders over to other 77 Max variants instead in the United States Southwest has already done this by partially switching some existing orders from the max 7 over towards the larger Max 8. similarly customers for the max 10 could change their orders to Max 9 but obviously not everyone would be satisfied by this solution since they ordered that particular variant for a reason this could potentially cost a lot of money for Boeing in customer compensations on top of the already huge investment costs that they have plowed down into these variants now completely in vain but a potential Silver Lining might be that if Boeing does cancel the larger 737 Max 10 it could potentially make Boeing accelerate the development of its next all-new aircraft let's call it the Boeing 797 who would sit in the size range between the 737 and the 787 previously many analysts have pointed out that the max 10 was possibly a bit too close to the size of that next aircraft to make sense so without the max 10 there is a hole in the Boeing lineup That Boeing might have the urge to fill but sadly this is where the theory that Boeing would actually want to cancel the max 10 starts to fall apart last week Boeing CEO said that the next Boeing aircraft will not enter service before the middle of the next decade and since Boeing is right now focusing most of its engineering efforts on the 77 Max it strongly suggests that Boeing expects to get that deadline extension that it wants in the past few weeks there have been reports of American lawmakers working on draft bills that will grant Boeing this wish but before we end this I just want to mention that Boeing is already using the max 10 variant to introduce some other cockpit changes as well one example is the possibility to cancel a spurious stick Shaker warning which could reduce confusion in the cockpit if the warning goes off due to an unreliable AirSpeed event and they are also introducing a third synthetic angle of attack sensor to use as a check against the existing two physical ones these upgrades would likely find a way into the other models of the max as well in later deliveries or as system upgrades during major maintenance checks whatever happens the FAA did learn a lot of lessons from the max crisis and these delays that we're seeing shows that they will take their sweet time to complete the necessary work to certify these aircrafts properly so I have complete confidence in the safety of the final product whatever the outcome of this delay and certification debacle eventually is I am so looking forward to fly the actual aircraft now check out this awesome video next or binge on this playlist make sure that you have subscribed to this Channel and consider becoming a patreon if you want to support my work and also participate in weekly Hangouts have an absolutely fantastic day and I'll see you next time bye

Channel: Mentour Now!

Views: 506,556

Keywords: Boeing, Boeing 737MAX, MAX 10, MAX 7, Boeing 777X, Mentour Pilot, Mentour Explains, Mentour crash, Mentour Crash MAX, Fear of flying, Nervous flyer, Nervous flyer help, Business news, Breaking aviation news, The Air current, Dominic Gates, Seattle times, Flying explained, aviation explained, Boeing CEO, MAX trouble, MAX issue, Ethiopean airlines, EICAS, How to become a pilot, pilot life

Id: dVus_ePZ9lM

Length: 17min 22sec (1042 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 10 2022