What’s happening with the war in Ukraine? | Start Here

let's talk about the war in Ukraine because there's been a big shift you've got Russia claiming to have annexed four regions in Ukraine some impressive games by the Ukrainian Army we understand that they are firing at Russian positions about three kilometers from here the tanks operating here are part of a wider counter-offensive in the East that has seen great success in recent weeks and then there's what's been going on inside Russia [Music] what's up plus the whole issue of nuclear weapons but let's start with the annexations President Vladimir Putin has declared that these four regions in eastern Ukraine now belong to Russia how did that happen will pro-russian officials in those regions organize referendums and told people they had to vote on whether they wanted to join Russia when the results were announced they appeared to show that an overwhelming number had voted yes but no one was surprised Ukraine and his Western allies say the whole thing was staged and illegal under international law say foreign an absolute sham we have multiple accounts of people with guns Russian soldiers or local pro-russian militia going door to door and forcing those who didn't flee to vote [Music] Putin went ahead and put on a Big Show in Moscow to formalize it all [Music] this is him with the four pro-russian leaders of those Ukrainian regions [Music] but the thing is Russia doesn't have full military control over those regions actually it's been losing ground fast Ukrainian forces have made major gains in the last few weeks the Kremlin Now controls less of those regions than it did when the votes were held the ukrainians as you say are on a roll and they think that they are pretty much Unstoppable at the moment it's what people mean when they talk about Ukraine's counter-offensive they essentially tricked the Russians into thinking they were focusing on the South but instead they attacked in the Northeast so Ukraine's counter-offensive is definitely a turning point this heavy equipment that the the West has sent that the Washington and the British government in particular have sent has been a game changer and there's been an element of surprise that's benefited them as well this kind of offense was extremely important it raised Ukrainian morale it showed that Western Arms are working that ukrainians know how to use them and that Ukraine is actually able to win this war so there's a real sense right now that military momentum is on the Ukrainian side and they're still pushing [Music] so here's where we need to look at what's going on in Russia and President Putin's response to all this he announced a partial mobilization that basically means the government calling up more men to join the war in Ukraine another 300 000 of them but it didn't exactly pan out that way and when the draft orders were sent out there were all sorts of issues including men without military experience being told to go and fight protests sprang up across the country flights out of Russia were all booked up and long lines started to form at the international border crossings one estimate suggests 260 000 men have left Russia to avoid being sent to war and yeah regime even some commentators on state TV who are usually very supportive of pugu have been openly critical of how the mobilization is being handled and how the war has been going because so what could this mean for Putin well it's hard to say but we do need to be careful not to overstate the level of criticism inside Russia anti-oh products are very low all in all in two weeks there were something like four four and a half thousand people only that took part in auntie warrellis and at the same time nearly two and a half thousand of them were arrested what we see much more is what we call Kitchen products so beautiful sitting on the kitchen and discussing between themselves our blood situation is look regime stability comes down to who has the guns and Putin and his guys still have the guns he controls the security apparatus and he's not gonna let that go but the fact that more Russians are asking more questions and people on state TV are arguing the Russian military needs to do better well that is a shift and it only adds to the pressure on Putin in the beginning absolute majority of our population were thinking that this war will last two three weeks the country of psychologically was not prepared for a long War and this is the key factor now because people don't understand why why they are no Victory why there is no Russian flag over here now hanging over all of this is the huge question of nuclear weapons and whether President Putin might use them since the beginning of the war he's been hinting that the option is on the table and he did it again when he signed off on the annexation of those four Ukrainian regions and those annexations have really ramped things up because from Putin's point of view any attack there is now considered an attack on Russian territory and according to the Russian law and to according to Russian you create a print attack on Russian territory should be with a heavy Strike Back In other words it could be met with a nuclear strike at least in theory and in that scenario most experts think we'd be talking about a tactical nuclear weapon and more likely the lower end of the explosive range for those weapons to give you an idea it could be similar to what we saw in the 2020 Beirut blast only with radiation but for the West this is the ultimate Red Line we have communicated directly privately at very high levels to the Kremlin that any use of nuclear weapons will be met with catastrophic consequences for Russia that the United States and our allies will respond decisively and we have been clear and specific about what that will entail we are conveying the clear message that this will have severe consequences for Russia and that the nuclear war must never be fought so would Putin even go there I think he's going to face so much discontent at home that he's going to be he's going to force himself in a corner and he's going to become increasingly erratic and emotional which we're seeing already and he's going to seriously consider using a nuclear weapon I think that's where we're going I cannot exclude Congress that kind of situation when um nuclear tactic only tactical of course developments can be used because if for victory that kind of Step will believe that it might have the problem for cooking that he needs only military or Ukraine defeat in this war will be defeated not of all of him to be defeat and the crash of the whole political system so any kind of negotiated end to this war seems completely out of the question right now in fact we're expecting things to step up before winter sets in the weather temperatures are getting quite cold and it's going to slow down men in tanks and supply lines so most analysts and people on the ground say uh you know the next two weeks are are quite crucial uh in in terms of where things stand on the battlefield we're Ukraine right now the goal is to uh gain as much land as possible till somewhere around mid-november maybe late November and then for the next three months is going to be a war of attrition uh just troops standing uh next to each other waiting for combat to resume somewhere in late March in case you missed it check out our last episode about the elections in Brazil and don't forget to subscribe to Al jazeera's YouTube channel so you don't miss our next one see you next week [Music]

Channel: Al Jazeera English

Views: 1,030,518

Keywords: Ukraine counter offensive, Russia-Ukraine war, Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine army, Ukraine war, al jazeera, al jazeera english, aljazeera, aljazeera english, aljazeera live, aljazeera news, kharkiv, ukraine latest news, Russian setbacks in Ukraine, kherson, ukraine advances, ukraine liberated cities, start here

Id: zoE-GSjlW9k

Length: 9min 44sec (584 seconds)

Published: Thu Oct 06 2022