What’s at stake for the Liberals in the upcoming Toronto byelection? | Power & Politics

voters in the Ontario riding of Toronto St Paul's will head to the polls for a byelection in less than three weeks holding the seat could prove to be a challenge for Justin Trudeau's liberals former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett won the writing in 2021 with nearly 50% of the vote 24 points ahead of the Conservative candidate but that result may change in a summer byelection 338 candidate poll aggregator Philipe Fier has been crunching the numbers and he joins me now welcome to the show sir good evening Mr Tasker thanks for having me thanks for being here so what are the polls suggesting how do things stand for the Liberals and the conservatives in Ontario well here's the thing when we look at the Ontario wide numbers The Province wide numbers we see that compared to 2021 election the Liberals have lost 10 points in Ontario on average and the conservatives have gained 10 points so if we apply this swing and obviously writing projections don't uh work as linear as this but if we apply this swing this 24 point lead that the Liberals had in Toronto s Paul suddenly evaporates and it's a handful of points that would separate the two now of obviously the demographics of Toronto s Paul's really is an advantage to the Liberals however will they be able to get their vote out I think is the main question so I think right now as we stand only what 10 days before the the byelection uh we should consider this writing as a tossup with a slight lean liberal yeah so what are the actual numbers then what what are you what can we expect the results will be in Toronto St Paul's if we extrapolate those provincial numbers what are the actual figures you're working with well here's the thing of course there is an uncertainty in the numbers but we expect the Liberals to win by a margin of between four and eight points now this is if the voters show up to the byelection and as you know Mr Tasker in a summer byelection uh there could be turnout problems that could be very difficult to predict but the Liberals again should get the advantage here they should be considered the favorite but not the by the margins that we saw in past years and decades yeah turn out always an issue with byelections Federal byelections the last batch we had the numbers weren't all that great what does history tell us about turnout in a summer byelection in particular do you have any data on that that is correct now so we had byelections last summer in June four byelections one in Quebec two in Ontario and one in Manitoba the turnout was somewhere between 25 and 40% I think we have to be careful here we have to look at comparables so if we look at the Moga Lakeshore byelection that occurred in December of 2022 uh the turnout was did not break 30% it was 27% so do voters will voters feel engaged in this byelection the answer here is I'm not too sure uh the politicians on ground will tell you that it's going very well for the campaign but if only a quarter or below uh the fraction of Voters show up uh this could prove very difficult for the Liberals to hold they have to show that their voters that this election matters it's a fairly wealthy writing so maybe a lot of people have Cottages too they might not be actually around in June to go vote um you wrote today the Liberals have a very good track record in the city uh in the city of Toronto with seats there how significant would a byelection loss be in Toronto St Paul's for the party well this is interesting because we know the last three general elections in 2015 2019 and 2021 the Liberals no cleaned out they won all 25 writings so that's 75 wins add to this in the last 10 years since justo has been leader of the Liberals five byelections so basically under justo the Liberals are 80 for 80 a perfect score so losing Toronto St Pauls would be very significant it would be the first time that the trudo Liberals lose a 416 seat and we saw the poll numbers Countrywide in Quebec in Atlantic Canada in BC in Ontario everywhere the Liberals are training if they are now not able to hold on to the 416 base uh it could spell a lot of trouble for the leadership of the Liberals and it would be very difficult to see M trudo being able to stay on as leader if they lose Toronto yeah and the conservatives haven't won a seat in the 416 since what 2011 it would be quite remarkable to win this that's right Steph Harper majority that's right yeah okay thank you so much to the 338 candid is phip Fier I appreciate you coming on sir thank you thank you have a great evening the liberal front bench is pulling out all the stops to support the candidate in Toronto St Paul's lots of red shirts in these photos you can see there a variety of ministers have swung by the campaign office to rally the troops and so has the Prime Minister we have faced difficult challenging times as the country and every step of the way we solve them by rolling up our sleeves by pulling together and getting things done for ourselves and for future generations and that's the choice Canadians get to make right here in say PA the Friday power panel has been listening to all this and joins me now neon Sinclair is a columnist for the Winnipeg Free Press Tonda mccharles is the Ottawa bureau chief for the Toronto Star Marie vastel is an editorial writer for Le devvo and the cbc's Jason marcroft joins us from Calgary hey guys hi there hi Tonda I got to start with a Toronto Star reporter on a Toronto writing uh what do you make what do you make of this Toronto St Paul's has been a ruby red seat for about 30 years now what are you hearing are the Liberals nervous about this byelection I mean I think suddenly they are uh to be honest um about five or six weeks ago when I was kind of testing the waters on that writing and talking to senior party operatives in both the liberal and conservative uh campaigns it seemed to me that they both kind of landed on on the same number roughly for where the conservatives would be happy with support at 20 but the Liberals thought that they were well they were very confident I would say about that writing and since Monday that's changed um I definitely detect a little bit more concern and in the liberal Camp while yes they've held it really you know quite solidly for the last three decades and largely because of the popularity of Carolyn Bennett I think suddenly now there's a bit of messaging that you know oh well byelections are always a time to send a message to the government you can't always count on it look I don't I don't draw too much from those pictures you showed of all the ministers that showed up for Leslie Church I mean she's a very popular uh person among the Liberals she's been a high level staffer there for a number of years and the Prime Minister campaigns in all by-elections but it is nevertheless suddenly a little bit more in play than anyone thought a number of weeks ago and I agree with Philip's uh characterization that is this is really a crucible for Justin Trudeau right now I think that um you know I'm not sure whether it'll prompt him to quit uh that's the of some of my colleagues but it's I think one that they are watching with quite a a bit of tension shall we say Marie what are you hearing I mean 10 cabinet ministers in one writing the prime minister deployed as Tonda says though that's not nothing that's nothing new with the byelection but still he's been there you know helping out lesie Church used to be a former senior staffer in the government worked for chrisa freand chrisa freelin herself door knocking with church uh she's been there a lot what do you make of all this activity do you think there worried I'm hearing the same thing as Tonda they seemed quite confident a few weeks ago and now suddenly there's a lot of nuance around byelections and their meaning uh I agree with Tonda that you know Leslie Church has been a long time Staff first so it's not that surprising to see people rally and try to help her but 10 or 12 I think I counted ministers going in her writing is not unsignificant either so to me it certainly doesn't indicate that they think it's a done deal I I'll just put it that way um I think there might also be concern uh with what people are hearing at the door the fatigue for the Prime Minister that we've been talking about for for weeks now and St Paul's is also the writing with the fifth largest um Jewish community and I'm sure there's a concern around that because the ongoing war in Gaza has been to say the very least um an issue of concern for this government and you know there is a risk that this byelection is also um an opportunity to send a message by the Jewish Community to the government about their their sort of change and position or evolving position in relations to their traditional support to the state of Israel or at least the government uh of Israel and so it's around 11% of the writing population it's not huge but if there is voter fatigue with the Liberals if there is a willingness to send a message by the Jewish Community you know at some point things add up and then it becomes um something that came way into the results um what could help the Liberals is that the house isn't sitting on the day of the um byelection it's the start of the summer recess so a lot of people could go out and try and help get out the vote all the writings around there are liberals so they might have an advantage on the get out the vote effort but it sounds like it's not really um that confident that the Liberals aren't that confident that they'll you know knock it out of the park and there is a risk of a narrative with a byelection in Quebec in the Quebec Province a byelection was the first seat that the coal Quebec the C won and then they won government so there's always a risk of a narrative in people's minds as well um that could be detrimental to the Liberals if they do poorly and the py kek W just won a byelection right in the Quebec City area well not just few few weeks ago now and that's kind of given them a little pep in their step right um again you know a liberal loss in Toronto St Paul's would be a total shock ER and it obviously hasn't happened yet there's we still got ballots to count some weeks of campaign to go but if they lose in that riding do you think we have to start talking more seriously about Justin Trudeau keeping his job uh well there's two big forces that play there I think the first is the pressure on Trudeau and then of course Trudeau himself who's put all his chips in the middle he's committed to running this election I interviewed him only a couple weeks ago and he looked you know the one question that he took with absolute no brevity no humor absolute seriousness he says I'm going to run in this next L election period And I think he's put all of his all of his plans in that he certainly Stak his legacy on that election and he really believes that the issue that he faces are when Canan voters face him against pev as a one-on-one fight that they're going to pick him and what it means is that I think that regardless of the outcome of this it will be uh pressure immense pressure perhaps but it will not lead to a tro resignation I even though some have called for that uh I would just say that you know we've got an byelection byelections are byelections they are certainly barometers on the federal government and they certainly are in some may some ways statements but it's also early summer people are kind of political out they're tired uh particularly with the ranker of this blast session um while you know the conservatives nothing here conservatives have certainly nothing nothing to lose but I'll give just a bit of a barometer so here in Manitoba uh Heather Stephenson former Premier her seat is up for grabs and we've just started the bi election voting uh today on that particular election um and though so that when the barometer on that by the way that is an that is a byelection that's been all about Gaza uh it's by a Jewish lawyer who's being headed up by the conservatives and has cried anti-Semitism of the provincial NDP um that is really an election that is being really held on who will come out H who will take the time necessary in the early months of June when everybody's heading to the cottage and will they come out and support uh what has been a stalwart very firm conservative writing for decades going all the way back to the Gary Filman days back in the 1980s in Manitoba so I think this is going to be an issue of can the Liberals get out the vote can they get the amount of cement support that they're going to need to be able to drive forward and create some kind of momentum change but even if that were the case I still don't see Trudeau resigning as a result of this outcome good or yeah Jason what do you think I mean can Trudeau really keep his job if they lose Toronto St Paul's it's been liberal for 30 years it's hard to think of a safer liberal seat and if that goes down what seat is safe right well this is this is the issue I mean many liberals will think back to 2011 when the when they only won 33 seats and many liberal most most liberal MPS are in writings where which we not one of those 33 St Paul's was um it's been for for for for decades now um that will very much be the clamor that if they lose this seat uh they will say if St Paul's isn't safe what is safe um the other reality is that winning that merely by 4% uh percentage points even in a byelection does not make it safe either so those those tensions will be those anxieties will be there there will be you know Trudeau has been a stalwart in his demand in his insistence that he's going to stay on um but uh you know so far we haven't heard a loud clamor for him to uh leave except for some pundits some observers um nobody in his caucus is getting noisy about it yet um does that change if uh on June 24th uh the conservatives are smiling broadly and uh declaring Victory or even coming nearly you know close to it um that's the sort of thing that's going to bear on him look this you know for all the for all this years now that the conservatives have been ahead they have yet to take a byelection theyve yet to steal a seat unless I'm mistaken from the uh from the Liberals um if this is their first one W Nelly yeah that would be a and I would even say to to Jason's Point even if it's very tight um that's that that also sends a message right because that 2011 election where the Liberals barely kept any seats Carolyn Ben Bennett sorry Carolyn Bennett still won with uh 12 points over the conservatives she still got 40% that's a pretty high bar think probably hoping to reach uh in yeah Tonda to Jason's point about can I just interject here for a second tond to um to Jason's point about caucus infighting you know we're not really seeing creten Martin style knife no one's out to knife Trudeau really at least publicly we we we've asked the question we're up on parlament Hill we're trying to get feedback and nobody's really all that interested in getting rid of Trudeau although he's been I'll give him this he's been very successful he's won you know three elections he's he's been he's been a strong Federal politician but at this point the polls aren't great Toronto St Paul's looking a little iffy like there's no movement of foot to really get rid of him that I've heard of what about you there's a there's a few factors here right like I the Prime Minister did spectacularly lose some some caucus colleagues Bill morno Jane Philpot Jody Wilson rold but since all of those crises of confidence you know with those people leaving um he has been able to maintain caucus discipline and yeah you're right people may have some private grumblings and may cower in front of the polls right now but you're right you don't hear anyone out outrightly expressly saying it's time for him to go what they say however is it's his decision to make many of them only got elected on his coattails but none of them feel that that is now what's going to get them back in power the next time round is not that's not my sense anyway and just I would say look we're talking about this particular writing but I think that the Liberals uh are looking at also they've had a few wakeup calls like the recent by-election in Durham where Aron oul once represented the conservatives now the conservatives did take that um it didn't change hands but the Liberals did terribly there uh the conservatives wed them and I believe that those are the kinds of things that are giving this uh party a wakeup call the the the polls showing massive sort of fleeing of vote support in Atlantic Canada of all places and now just this week we've seen another poll out of Quebec that shows them within striking range of you know a good chunk of seats tied with the Liberals in Quebec the block is still ahead but suddenly it's a much different picture and race in that Province um yeah so I think you know there's a lot of alarm Bells out there but you just don't see people at this point uh sticking a knife in Trudeau's back and maybe it's because they suffered also the sort of you know the slings and arrows of those divisions within their party in the Paul Martin cretan years before that in the Turner cretan years it you know it it had been a long time where that party convulsed with internal dissent and I think they learned at least that discipline Marie let's talk about that Quebec poll I think the control room can put up some of the numbers from this Le poll that was just released today we have some insights into how the party is doing in La provance the blacka still ahead 31% the Liberals and the conservatives are tied at 26% as Tonda said the NDP 11% the greens 4% and the PPC in single digits Marie what do you make of these numbers I mean the conservatives pretty strong position there yeah it's interesting that they're they finally seem to be gaining some momentum uh in kbec which has been resisting quite to longer than other provinces it was like the last Lan Province uh I would say though that in kbec you really need to look at frankophone numbers just because it's 77% of of the population so usually you have to look at the breakdown of frankophone votes to really get a better sense and when you look at that the block is quite ahead they're at 39 and then the Liberals and the conservatives are still pretty much tied at 23 for the Liberals and 22 for the conservatives so I would say the block is still look still looks quite um ahead of them um but those are are big numbers for the conservatives it's just usually harder for them to get more seats because their support is usually quite concentrated around Quebec City it's almost like Regional within the province um and even in 2006 when the conservatives got 24% of the vote or in 2008 when they got 22 is% of the vote they had 10 seats they now have nine so they don't necessarily get a huge bump in seats and the other thing I would point out in the Le poll is that when people were asked what is the most worrying scenario to you is it Justin Trudeau winning another mandate or Pier becoming prime minister 34% uh are worried well say the most worrying scenario is that the Prime Minister remains prime minister but 44% think that it's p becoming prime minister so that's a big hurdle still for the conservative leader in Quebec that he seems to still be having trouble convincing people to I guess take that leap uh of faith and tried change so yeah they're getting momentum but when you kind of break it down it's it's unclear that it would actually translate into seats or a lot of seats

Channel: CBC News

Views: 12,126

Keywords: cbc, cbc news, toronto-st. Paul, federal byelection, canada, poll aggregator, canadian politics

Id: AXhPCZcrR_I

Length: 19min 38sec (1178 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 07 2024