WEHISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN AND SO IF THERE'S A PULLBACK ON THAT, WE'RE GOING TO FEEL IT IN THE ECONOMY PRETTY MEANINGFULLY. >> THE JAPANESE YEN HITTING A NEW 34 YEAR LOW AGAINST THE DOLLAR THE COUNTRY'S CENTRAL BANK SIGNALING IT INTENDS TO KEEP POLICY EASY. LET'S BRING IN JIM BIANCO, HE RUNS BIANCO RESEARCH DO YOU THINK THERE'S INTERVENTION ON THE -- I FEEL LIKE I ASK THIS EVERY WEEK, BUT DO YOU THINK THE BOJ WILL DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS AND THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SORT OF SNAP RALLY? >> I DON'T THINK THEY WILL I MEAN, THEY OBVIOUSLY CAN, AND I THINK THAT THE REASON THAT THEY WON'T INTERVENE AND WHY THEY'VE ALLOWED IT TO GO TO A 34-YEAR EXTREME IS THEY KNOW IT DOESN'T WORK, AND THEY'VE TRIED IT IN THE PAST, AND NOW IT'S BEEN 20 YEARS SINCE THEY'VE TRIED IT, BUT EVERY TIME THEY'VE TRIED TO INTERVENE, IT WORKS FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF, AND THEN THEY STOP INTERVENING AND THE MARKET GOES RIGHT BACK TO WHERE IT IS. BESIDES, IF YOU'RE GOING TO INTERVENE AND TRY AND FORCE A MARKET THE SIZE OF THE YEN DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE TO A LEVEL, IT'S NOT GOING TO WORK IT SHOULDN'T WORK. YOU NEED TO CHANGE YOUR POLICIES YOU NEED TO CHANGE YOUR ECONOMICS IF YOU WANT TO STOP THIS DECLINE IN THE YEN. >> SO THE $4.5 TRILLION CARRY TRADE ESTIMATE ROUND ABOUT IN STOCKS AND BONDS, THAT'S SAFE IN YOUR VIEW? >> YEAH, I THINK IT IS IF THAT IS STILL THE EXTENT OF THE TRADE. I THINK THE TRADE IS PROBABLY A LOT LESS THAN IT WAS, YOU KNOW, SAY THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO, ESPECIALLY PRE-COVID BECAUSE BEFORE THIS PERIOD, THERE WAS A LOT OF YOUNG STRENGTH, AND THEN THAT SHOULD HAVE PROBABLY SHOOK A LOT OF THOSE PEOPLE OUT. IF YOU'RE IN THAT TRADE NOW, THE WEAK YEN IS GOING TO DEFINITELY MAKE IT WORK FOR YOU, AND THERE'S NO REASON TO BE FEARFUL OF IT. >> HEY, JIM, IT'S TIM. LET'S TAKE THE NEXT STEP OUTSIDE OF THE BUYING POWER FOR THE JAPANESE CONSUMER, ABROAD, ET CETERA, ET CETERA, AND BALANCE OF PAYMENT DYNAMICS FOR JAPAN THAT ARE SIGNIFICANT ON A GLOBAL STAGE WHAT DOES THIS MEAN IN YOUR VIEW >> KEEP IN MIND THAT THE JAPANESE ARE THE LARGEST BUYERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES IN THE WORLD, NOT THE CHINESE THE JAPANESE ARE, AND IF THEIR CURRENCY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN LIKE IT HAS BEEN, YOU ALWAYS WANT TO BE INVESTED IN THE STRONGER CURRENCY, SO THAT WOULD ON BALANCE BE PUSHING MONEY TOWARDS U.S. DOLLAR AND OF COURSE THEN INTO U.S. TREASURIES AND EVEN THOUGH THAT'S HAPPENING, YIELDS ARE CONTINUING TO GO UP, SO IT REALLY TELLS YOU ABOUT THE UNDERLYING WEAKNESS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE BOND MARKET YOU'VE GOT THE LARGEST FOREIGN BUYER IN THE WORLD WITH AN EXCUSE TO BE BUYING IT, AND YET, WE'RE STILL SEEING BONDS SELL OFF, AND WE'RE STILL SEEING YIELDS GO HIGHER. >> JIM, I WANT TO PIVOT YOU TO NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF QRA ON MONDAY, AND THEN ALSO THE FED MEETING, YOU KNOW, HOW DO YOU SEE THIS ALL PLAYING OUT I MEAN, IN TERMS OF THE POSITIONING FOR QRA AND ALSO FOR THE FED MEETING. >> THERE'S A LOT OF NEWS NEXT WEEK MONDAY IS THE QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT WE ALL REMEMBER NOVEMBER IT PRODUCED, YOU KNOW, WHEN THE TREASURY CAME OUT AND SAID WE'RE GOING TO BUY LESS NOTES AND BONDS SKPSHAND MORE BILLS AND I SPARKED A HUGE RALLY IN BONDS. THEY'VE PLAYED THAT CARD I DON'T KNOW IF THEY CAN PLAY THAT CARD AGAIN BECAUSE NOW AT LEAST EVERYBODY'S LOOKING FOR THAT, AND IT'S GOING TO BE REALLY HARD TO REALLY SURPRISE EVERYBODY. THEY STILL HAVE TO FUND THE DEF DEFICIT. THEY CAN'T COME OUT AND SAY WE'RE GOING TO SELL AS MANY BONDS AS EVERYBODY THOUGHT THE QRA MIGHT BE A VOLATILITY EVENT. WEDNESDAY'S THE FED MEETING. THEY'RE NOT GOING TO DO ANYTHING THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE FED, WHAT THE FED DOES IS GOING TO BE A NON-EVENT. IT'S GOING TO BE ABOUT THE PRESS CONFERENCE AND WHETHER OR NOT POWELL SAYS ANYTHING ABOUT BEING MORE HAWKISH, AND DON'T FORGET FRIDAY IS PAYROLLS, PAYROLLS FOR 250,000 IS WHAT THE GUESS IS DOWN FRO
