OUR EMPLOYEES WINTERSCHEIDT
AND HEUFER-UMLAUF WON YESTERDAY'S SHOW
"JOKO AND KLAAS VS. PROSIEBEN", SO PROSIEBEN AGREED TO GIVE THEM
15 MINUTES OF AIRTIME. PROSIEBEN HAS NO SAY
IN WHAT THEY DO WITH THAT TIME. LET'S HOPE FOR THE BEST.
PROSIEBEN IDEA, EDITING, GRAPHICS:
JOKO & KLAAS 15 MINUTES OF PREMIUM ENTERTAINMENT ENTERTAINMENT WITH CLASS HAVE FUN WATCHING
JOKO & KLAAS LIVE Today we're talking about
the European Union, the EU. This European community was founded after the world wars, the Cold War
and increased economic globalization to give comparatively small states
something they urgently needed, strength in community. The idea was
that once that was established it'd be easier and possible
to ensure prosperity on our continent, prosperity and peace. Lots of people are questioning
the idea of Europe. Some want autarkic states again,
their own currency, closed borders or isolation
from the globalized world economy. But the question
we have to ask ourselves is: What would happen
if the EU as we know it fell apart? We posed that question to people who know about this issue
and spend a lot of time exploring it. Economists, scholars and futurologists. And... we took their statements
and had AI put images to them. The images are very surrealistic,
but also very drastic at times. Not everything we see pictured here
has to happen this way, but the important
and alarming information is: It could happen this way,
if we don't take care. JUNE 10, 2024 BRUSSELS Good morning,
ladies and gentlemen. Entirely unexpectedly, in all EU countries Eurosceptics have won the day. All 27 member states have voted to disband the union of states at once. That means the EU alliance is now history
31 years after its founding. That means all EU-wide laws, norms and funding are now invalid. Each nation must now decide how it will deal
with the unforeseeable consequences. Experts are stunned and very worried
about the future. #WHATWOULDHAPPENIF People often associate the EU with rules, but it actually makes life
in Europe much easier because instead of 27 regulations
we often have just one. We saw that with Brexit. Things got a lot more complex and harder
for lots of companies and families. In the mid-term Germany, too,
would have big problems because we could no longer sustain
our industries and manufacturing. That would lead to severe impoverishment. #WHATWOULDHAPPENIF
...THE EU CEASED TO EXIST TOMORROW? One of Brexit's main aims, curbing immigration, didn't work. On the contrary, the refugee figures
in Great Britain have ballooned. That's because it's gotten much harder
to work with France and other EU nations. Brexit gives us a foretaste. Although, for the 27 EU countries, that will be many times worse. #WHATWOULDHAPPENIF On the first day
the borders will be closed. There will be great uneasiness. 25 million people in Europe
live in border regions. They won't know if they can visit family across the border,
or if they can commute to work. And what about day care and school? There will be long traffic jams
and vehicle inspections. If the EU ceased to be
from one day to the next there would very quickly be chaos
on the financial markets, within minutes. Speculators would immediately
pull their money out of less stable countries
like Cypress, Greece and Portugal. Everything we've gotten used to,
the freedom of movement that allows me as a European
to live and work anywhere in Europe without major bureaucratic issues, would all change drastically. For example, the Spanish waiter in Berlin the French exchange student in Portugal, they would all be wondering if they can stay in the country or not. Europe's open borders keep it going. The entire economic structure
is geared towards the free flow of trade and people
at all times. There will be a huge buildup
of security forces on the borders. The EU's external border will become
an internal border. Every country will try to protect
its own borders. Firstly, that is very expensive, and, secondly, it'll lead to dwindling exchange between people
and of goods. There will be supply bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions. It'll probably be difficult to get groceries, at least fresh foods, shipped to supermarkets. Here in Germany we import
lots of fruit and vegetables from countries like Spain and Italy. The moment
there are no longer shared rules border inspections will be required,
there'll be new forms to fill out. Tests may have to be carried out
to check if products are safe. And customs fees will have to be paid. Right now, Europe
is very tightly linked economically. Supply chains
are organized across borders. The model we have of being able
to produce things all over Europe and then to assemble them in one place
would be far more complicated. For big industries like the car industry that would be yet another blow. The just-in-time production,
so the very fast delivery of components from neighbouring European countries would collapse. Unlike Brexit, the collapse of the EU
would call the Euro into question, the currency we've been using
for more than 20 years. In one fell swoop 20 European countries
would have to introduce a new currency. Reintroducing the D-mark, or scrapping
the Euro, would have dire consequences, 3specially for business in Germany because the D-mark would be
a very strong currency. That would mean it would be very expensive
for us to export things. If there were appreciation pressure
of, say, 30 percent that would mean that our export goods such as cars, machinery
and chemical and pharmaceutical products would be 30 percent more expensive
in foreign currencies almost overnight. And that would mean
that sales would plummet, profits would plummet. The export industry would immediately have
considerable problems. Germany is a very big exporting nation. Half of the goods
go to other European countries and one in four jobs in Germany
depends on exports. People underestimate it,
the four Visegrád states alone, Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia,
trade more with Germany than China. And that'd be directly threatened
with the breakup of the EU. In the course of streamlining
companies would try to lower wages, and/or try to let workers go. And it is conceivable that the unemployment rate would quite quickly rise from six percent
to maybe 12 percent in a few years. That would ultimately lead to
companies having to shut down and jobs being lost. In the long-term that would mean
less prosperity overall, less budget revenue
and fewer jobs. It wouldn't just be bad for the company, it would have consequences
for society as a whole. The more at odds Europe is after an exit,
after the demise of the European Union, the easier it would be
for powers like China and Russia to gain influence here. Germany and all the other EU states are economic dwarfs compared to
the United States and China. And it will be very difficult to renegotiate trade relationships
that reflect our interests because we're economically irrelevant. Yes, about a year or two
after the end of the EU the remaining money that went
into the EU budget would be used up. That'd mean the agricultural subsidies, financial support for farmers,
would be discontinued. That would probably lead
to huge protests by farmers. Funding for research would end. Discontinuation
of the EU Structural Funds would lead to impoverishment,
especially in underdeveloped areas. There wouldn't be
infrastructure available. The gap between the city
and the country would grow in areas where we already have problems,
like doctors and pharmacies. Our health care system
is already dependent on immigrants. Lots of health care workers
and professionals in hospitals are immigrants. That will end.
There won't be any more immigration. Old people in particular,
people in need of care, won't get the care they need,
so the mortality rate will rise among the elderly. And then images
that are hard to stomach would appear in the media. The European Union set
lots of environmental standards. The EU hasn't existed for a while now
and the former member states are setting up regulations
for toxic waste disposal and how they deal sewage on their own. If every state does that on its own, then there won't be any common rules. Maybe Germany has emissions trading
but Poland no longer does. The dirty lignite power stations
are now there pumping filth into the air
well into the 2100s. Let's say there's a river
linking two countries. With no shared EU environmental standards,
other countries may have other standards that allow garbage to be dumped
into the river, thus contaminating it. The contamination
would flow across the border. There would no longer be
any recourse to stop that anymore. Living conditions always decline
with economic insecurity. Past economic crises have shown that. What worries me the most
is the uncertainty. We saw at the start of the COVID pandemic
that when people are uncertain they are susceptible to populism, to simple answers and to mistrust. Great uncertainty creates fertile ground for parties that propagate
quick and easy solutions. I could imagine there being a trend towards nationalism all over the place. Parties that say they want
a strong France, or a strong Germany or a strong Poland. Parties that would stress
the differences between countries and not the similarities. There would be way more mistrust. RESEARCH DIVISION HEAD (SWP) It's very likely that the disputes
that once took place in EU committees would suddenly erupt publicly
between states. I think it's unimaginable to us now,
but if you look at European history the last 80 years are an exception. We've lived in peace for so long, but that isn't immutable. And I think that a hate for "the other" is not inconceivable when you stop
meeting up and being in dialogue. If nationalistic parties aspire to lead this or that country
back to the greatness of yesteryear... If parties like that prevail, then I could imagine the thing
we can't imagine now could happen, war, military disputes between European states. There would be an immense threat of military buildup and uncertainty
on the whole. The loss of prosperity would very probably
lead to emigration, to a mass exodus. FUTUROLOGIST Especially
of well-educated skilled workers. That happened once before 150 years ago, when lots of Europeans emigrated to America, to the so-called New World. And all of that could repeat itself. Europe could become
a continent of out-migration that gets poorer even faster and ends up with unreliable governments
even more quickly. At the end of the day it's a question of how livable Europe will be in the future. If we live in a Europe
with barbed-wire fences where neighbours no longer exchange ideas, and tensions could arise. PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN MOVEMENT GERMANY We might find ourselves in a scenario
like the one 100, 120 years ago where people are more likely considering
leaving Europe. As a European out of conviction it is
an almost unimaginable horror scenario. The EU influences
so many things in our lives. It doesn't do everything right,
but in many realms it bolsters diversity, cooperation and teamwork. My grandma was a Pole, my mother was born
in Poland and came to Germany. My father has Italian roots. Europe is more to me
than an abstract bureaucratic project in Brussels. Europe is where I can live with my family. HEAD OF EUROPEAN COUNCIL
ON FOREIGN RELATIONS we can visit each other,
celebrate without barriers. I am a native-born Englishman. I grew up in Manchester. I now live in Germany,
I'm a dual citizen. I feel like a European. ECONOMICS PROFESSOR (DHBW KARLSRUHE) Just thinking about this project failing
makes me sad. I don't want the coming generation
to experience that, and I ardently hope
that doesn't come to pass. I think we all agree
15 minutes aren't enough to discuss what was, what is
and what has to be in terms of Europe
and the European Union. But we can take one thing away from this: we need people in this parliament who believe in Europe,
love democracy and are passionate about and committed to
ensuring this gigantic mosaic comes together step by step by step. We don't need people who want to be voted
into the European Parliament to destroy it and to ruin our shared vision. Things don't have to end up that way,
and it's up to us to ensure they don't. European elections are on June 9th, and we should all get out and vote. EUROPEAN ELECTIONS ARE ON JUNE 9TH
