Video Dispatch IV: America's Mid-East Partners in Disarray

hello once again from the trails of colorado this is part four in a series of the issues that will be facing the next american president it's the middle east the united states has been the dominant player and decision maker in the region for decades that doesn't mean it always gets its way but it certainly has the most economic and military force by a couple orders of magnitude that's allowed it to keep the sea lanes open so that oil can flow after all that was the whole basis of the global order keep the lights on keep everyone trading and then the united states in exchange gets to write everybody's security policies those days are over and the united states is stepping back and the only deployment of size that's left in the region is afghanistan and it is on its way down to zero troops so we'll just have a few rotating forces going through the region that means it's up to the local powers to figure out issues for themselves and some of that's going to get delightfully dicey if the issue is not iran iran's a known quantity iran has been against the regional order since 1979 and so the united states has intervened repeatedly to enforce that order but that is what is ending iran is stable the issue is what happens with all the other countries that the united states has protected because they are not powerless the first one and the one in the news right now is turkey turkey is waking up from roughly a century of being out of commission in the aftermath of world war one it had a revolution and from world war ii on the united states was allowed to write all its security policies well now it's making its own decisions and it has interests in the caucuses and the balkans and the black sea and the eastern med and the levant in mesopotamia right now it is being very aggressive in the eastern med keep in mind that iran has nato's second largest army and fourth largest air force and navy it is no joke and with the exception of the united states there is no other power in the region that can really stand up to it by themselves the french are trying they've managed to push the turks into negotiations don't expect success and don't expect this to be the end of the story the turks are going to push and push and push until they get what they what they feel they are due and they have the power to make that happen especially if the united states is not involved next up is israel israel has a very good mid-range power projection capacity and that allows it to change the situation on the ground what they lack is a large enough army to occupy or bolster anyone's position or really to overthrow anything except for one of their immediate neighbors that makes him an interesting player and a free agent but they can't really dominate the area but they can certainly prevent others from doing it the third and the one i'm most concerned about is saudi arabia in addition to having a really big checkbook and a really violent ideology they are being completely left to dry they are they are being completely hung out to dry they lack a military they're not going to get one because it might throw a coup which means that they really only have two options option one is to find a security guarantor to replace the united states israel might do in a pinch and if israel could have access to saudi air bases they could bomb iran without anyone's help a more likely outcome in the long term however is that they reach outside of region and try to find a partner who's also a major oil importer the leading candidates are the united kingdom france and especially japan and china if you thought this region was crazy when the united states had put boots on the ground can you imagine japanese or chinese boots on the ground competing for influence in this region with the saudis being the broker it's a very likely outcome the second option it's a little bit more direct get a nuke now the the saudis clearly have enough money to purchase one outright but they're also working with the chinese and other countries to develop a nuclear program on the sly behind the united states is back they've been doing that for a couple of years now uh it's not that i think that the saudis have the technical skill but they can certainly purchase it bottom line when the united states abdicates rulership of this region other powers local and otherwise are going to step into the void and that means they're looking at their own calculus their own interests and most of all they are not looking to washington for approval or permission things will go down here that we will not like whether that comes back to bite the united states on the ass a few years from now that remains to be determined

Channel: Zeihan on Geopolitics

Views: 12,037

Rating: 4.9821029 out of 5

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Id: m-VfJ2j6x-E

Length: 4min 31sec (271 seconds)

Published: Wed Sep 15 2021