US-China conflict 'more likely' than five years ago, says Singapore PM - BBC News

[Music] just how badly has singapore been hit by the pandemic and by the larger forces against globalization well the pandemic has been an enormous upheaval for us economically last year we had minus five and a half percent gdp growth which is our worst ever in terms of cases we've had quite a lot of cases sixty 000 odd but fortunately most of them have not been severe cases so our fatalities have been very very low i think so far with 29 died of corvid but the social impact the disruption the anxieties over loss of pay loss of jobs over what will you do with your children at home and schools close that has been pervasive globalization is a longer term problem or deglobalization there have been trends underway for some time now not least because of u.s china but not just that and with the covet experience that may give it a further push i hope not over the edge but it will push it a little bit further because everybody will say i need to make my own masks i need to have my own supply chains and when everyone scrambles at the same time for something scarce it's not very good for the world globalization even in your own country hasn't always benefited everyone many people have felt left out here do we need a new economic model i think globalization has benefited everybody in singapore you may not feel it so but if there were not if we did not have the multinationals here if we did not have the international trade that we have if we did not we're not open as we are i have no doubt all of us would be worse off but what has generated tensions is when the interface is so stark people see the competition directly because they are in a global market now but at the same time they understand that our way forward cannot be to close ourselves up because if we do that we are all going to be worse off is that the way you see singapore growing in the future given the backlash against globalization that we're seeing now we will work very hard to do that it's not just a matter of good intentions but also whether or not we can make sure that people see that globalization is working out for them and for the people who feel that the competition is fierce and it's the future is unpredictable that in fact that they know that there's an extra help for them there's extra support for them that they are not alone in this and that in singapore we will make sure that they are well looked after provided they make the effort to continue to upgrade themselves and we're putting a lot of effort into this we are putting we've got skills future which is a comprehensive program to train and retrain people throughout their working lives after they have left school courses recognition schemes arrangements with employers government subsidies every country is trying to do this but we are doing it we're trying to do it more systematically and with our full resources behind it the u.s china relationship has deteriorated significantly over the last few years when the time comes which one will you choose i hope the time does not come i mean it is not possible for us to choose one or the other because we have very intense and extensive ties with both the us and with china economic as well as in other areas and so to do many other countries in the world so i don't think this is a dilemma only to singapore is a problem for many countries in the world which is why we are all hoping and encouraging the two large powers to think very carefully before embarking on deciding that the other one is an adversary and one which has to be kept down if not put down what would it take do you think to get to a point where we see real military conflict between china and the united states how likely is the possibility do you think it's more likely than it was five years ago but i think the odds of a military clash are not yet high but the risk of severe tensions which will raise the odds later on i think that's considerable because both sides take their domestic calculations as paramount what's their domestic position how can they secure it what must they do with their own populations and their external relations are based on that and therefore it's not so easy to say well the external logic compels you to work together because the internal logic may impel you to take a very hard line and then you may find yourself at an impasse and clash and that can easily happen do you think the us needs to accept that it's no longer number one i think the us is still number one but number two is not so far behind and that's what is difficult for the u.s to accept and when it comes to china you know it very well i know i wouldn't claim that what i wanted to ask you is how concerned you are with the direction that china is taking politically well i do not i we cannot judge the domestic pressures which lead china to make the decisions it makes but i think internationally the position which has taken it has won it some friends but at the same time it has led to tensions with major powers and there is significant uncertainty anxiety over which way china is going and will this be good for them and i don't think that is in china's interest so what do you think might be a better solution or a better way i i would hesitate to give advice to other countries leaders i think they all make their own calculations but what we would like to see is china being able to be a country where its prosperity and its development and its growing strength is welcomed by other countries in the world who see this as an opportunity for them to prosper together and to live in a stable world together and even now many many countries including singapore want very much to maintain good relations with china in order to benefit from china's development and to co-prosper with them so i think that that is a very important factor which china has had in its favor which it would be a pity to miss out with miss out on in the next phase if you look at america it used to be that the business people american businessmen mncs would be one of the strongest advocates for china and for good relations with china because they saw the opportunities there they saw how they could prosper there they were investing there they were trading walmart buys enormous amounts from china and it benefits americans not just walmart but benefits american housewives and ordinary people all over the country but in the last five seven years i think american business attitudes have shifted and they are now no longer as open in the support of china in fact there's quite a lot of pushback it's not that the opportunities are not there but they see that china has moved forward and they want to see a more open environment and one where they get a bigger bite of the cherry i think it's understandable china is a new position now and you have to make a different uh set a different balance in your relationship with the world and what the world was prepared to grant you in an earlier phase now has to be reworked and that's quite difficult for a country to accept indeed and it makes it quite difficult for a country like singapore that sits in the middle of all of this to navigate when you do try and navigate with these big economic and political powers what are some of your key considerations first what is in singapore's interest how do we make a rational assessment of that and make that judgment for ourselves and hold our people together persuade them that this is the right thing to do and generally it is that we want to be friends with both but we have to find our right way for our own way forward and from time to time there will be kerfuffles and we have had kerfuffles with china once in a while with america also once in a while and when that happens you have to understand it cannot be helped between countries this happens it doesn't mean we are your opponent but it does mean that we have problems which need to be worked through and meanwhile other areas where we can continue to work together and that is how we do it thank you prime minister for joining us on talking business asia thank you

Channel: BBC News

Views: 690,767

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Keywords: bbc, bbc news, news

Id: xeXdfG-Nbpw

Length: 9min 40sec (580 seconds)

Published: Sun Mar 14 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/MagicianMoo]

Bbc: Do you have any advice for China? Lhl: dies inside I don't think we should tell other countries how to run.

I love that.

[u/Inevitable_Regular_9]

just hope we not caught in the cross fire. Bless

[u/yrt97]

LHL might have got it right in the interview:" I think the US is still no.1 but no.2 is not far behind and that's what's difficult for the US to accept"

[u/echowxyz]

The whole interview just feels like the BBC trying to play gotcha

[u/skribe]

If there is a conflict it won't be just the US vs China, it will be the entire Anglosphere vs China. Beijing has burnt a lot of bridges (most unnecessarily) over the last few years.

[u/ned_stark97]

People have discussed the risks of US-China conflict, but there are also opportunities for gains amidst superpower competition. When elephants fight, the grass suffers. But when elephants make love, the grass also suffers. Collusion can be as uncomfortable as conflict. The thing is, when the big boys make grand bargains, it usually comes at the expense of lesser beings. When China and the USSR agreed at the 1954 Geneva Conference, North Vietnam paid the price by having to postpone reunification. When Germany and Russia (throughout the centuries) agreed on spheres of influence, Poland paid the price through its partition. When the US-China rapprochement occurred in the 1970s, the ROC/Taiwan paid the price by losing its international recognition and UN seat.

Under the Obama administration the US was very concerned with getting along with China and having a constructive relationship (not a bad thing). There was talk of a G2 and a New Model of Great Power relations. Japan and India were the ones that objected most fiercely to Obama’s acceptance of Chinese “core interests” e.g. US had to reassure Japan on the Senkakus. Remember the series of slaps China delivered to our face in 2016? The Terrex incident and LHL being disinvited to the Belt and Road Forum? It didn’t help that the Obama admin was hesitant about FONOPS in the SCS. But after the Trump admin took power in 2017 and announced that the kid gloves were off, the Chinese attitude softened - they need other countries “on their side” or at least neutral when they’re busy fending off US pressure. When LHL arranged a visit to the White House to sign the Boeing aircraft deal in Oct 2017, the Chinese practically fell over themselves to get him to visit Beijing first in Sept 2017. All of a sudden the tenor of their diplomacy changed. Li Keqiang said that China placed “great importance” on ties with Singapore. Just one year earlier they had been slapping our faces around with their dicks and suddenly we were a “valued partner”. Smile and wave, boys.

Just in case you think I’m only talking about China, this also applies to the US. As domineering as it is, China has no interest in exporting any “universal values”, and that is a good thing. Strategic competition with China for the hearts and minds (or wallets, bases, and UN votes) of non-democratic and authoritarian southeast Asian countries means that US will likely be restrained from any of that annoying liberal triumphalism and humanitarian interventionism we saw in the 1990s and early 2000s. Good. I hope this mutes their “values-based” diplomacy. Case in point, Myanmar now. Like a Thai diplomat said to the Americans in the 2010s, “if you are not nice to us, we have options”. In the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, southeast Asians were furious that the US more or less abandoned them to their economic woes. More recently, Laos was able to leverage on Chinese infrastructure investment to haggle with the World Bank for loans to build a dam.

My point is, Great Power competition imposes strategic discipline on both sides. We are headed for stormy waters because we will undoubtedly come under pressure from both powers to pick a side. But at the same time they will both be wary of forcing us into the arms of the other, and they will try to lure us with incentives. We will be coerced and courted simultaneously, and we must learn to flirt at the same time as we stand firm.

[u/SecretTwo7329]

Yeah, China young man are also influenced by us culture

[u/Zxirf]

any idea where can j watch the full video??

[u/Alberqueque]

It wouldn't negatively affect Singapore since it's policy has always been to be neutral in conflicts, but that doesn't exclude them from working with both parties.