Universal Basic Income (UBI) - Life After Automation

the rise of the machines as automation spreads through the American economy experts say it's impacts will be uneven in the world that we are creating very quickly we're going to see more and more things that look like science fiction and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs how does society companies and employees adapt to this acceleration of technology in both governments across the world need a narrative that helps people to feel that they do belong that they are being heard that's one way that they can start to rebuild trust hi welcome to another cold fusion video the Industrial Revolution has brought about a change of seismic proportions no time in human history has seen such an acceleration of the economy and people's standards of living while it created many jobs it also displaced some today another revolution is taking place this time in software and hardware however this revolution is different compared to anything that has come before technology is catching up to the workforce faster and more widespread than ever before where I live a lot of supermarket checkout staff have already been replaced and in the United States truck drivers seem to be next even radiologists accountants and lawyers are being threatened by AI that can better perform aspects of their jobs basically with newer AI technologies like deep learning as said by Google co-founder Sergey Brin there is currently no clear limit to what can be automated so the question is if millions of people start to lose their jobs through automation and AI what impact will this have on the modern economy and society it may not be a guaranteed result but the risks make it worth thinking about one of the most general solutions to this problem is a universal basic income or ubi so what is ubi and what are the arguments around it and what will the future of work look like you are watching ColdFusion TV [Music] Universal basic income is an idea that dates back centuries sixteenth century philosophers wrote about a utopia where each citizen is relieved of the burden of worry over ensuring their essential needs some of the earliest pilot tests were conducted in the United States during the 1960s and 70s Milton Friedman the famous Nobel prize-winning economist is known for his ideas on free market economics and he was one of the main supporters of a so-called negative income tax but in recent times ubi has been gathering momentum as technology began to replace people from their jobs the idea of guaranteeing every person with a minimum living wage income is becoming popular and regain a 2020 presidential candidate is even basing most of his campaign around the idea of ubi the idea is simple give every citizen a monthly payout to cover their basic living needs in the modern world with the implementation and the question of why we need ubi as you'll see is more complex remember going to Blockbuster there are a few staff there and many other people behind the scenes delivering the videos to the store and so on or thanks to human ingenuity we can now stream movies and TVs online in the comfort of our own homes one could argue that the Internet and Netflix killed the video store clerk the same has largely happened to supermart checkout workers they've been replaced by self-serve machines researchers estimate between 20 and 30 percent of all jobs will be lost by automation by 2030 here's a breakdown of those jobs that will be lost by this time so right now repetitive low-skilled work is most at-risk of automation skilled jobs may be at risk to a recent study put lawyers and AI against each other their task was to review non-disclosure agreements it took the lawyers an average of 92 minutes to complete the task and they achieved 85% accuracy the AI well it just took 26 seconds and it achieved 94% accuracy Babylon is a company he claims that their AI can pass a medical exam with a higher average grade than a human they've been providing health care services to Rwanda since 2016 a study found that hedge funds using AI made a return of about eight percent this is significantly better than the ones that are managed by humans which made a return of about two percent in the same time frame in military use an AI developed at the University of Cincinnati was able to defeat an experienced Air Force colonel every time in a simulated air battle another AI has also been developed which can in some instances outperform radiologists when determining diseases based off x-rays it can detect shades that the human eye can't sure we're still going to need lawyers and doctors in the future there are some key things such as complex decision-making and empathy that may never be automated away and also just because an AI performs well in test settings doesn't mean it's ready for the market just yet but the point remains if technology keeps advancing we may need less humans to do the same amount of work and it's not just AI that we should be concerned about over the last few decades the top percentiles of many countries have gotten wealthier while the rest of the population stagnate wealth inequality in America is especially skewed with the top one percent of American households owning 40% of the country's wealth for those curious as to why wealth inequality is happening in the first place it's largely because of central bank monetary policy if you've watched some of my older financial videos this should be of no surprise but now I'm not just saying it the Dutch central bank recently came out with a study of over the past hundred years including the 12 most advanced economies and they've come to the same conclusion loose central bank policy causes wealth inequality so what does this wealth inequality mean for a future where low-skilled labor is being replaced by high-tech machines well if things stay as they are it would be logical to assume that the wealth gap will keep increasing and perhaps even at a greater pace than before right now the problem has gotten so bad that in the United States a new term has been created the working poor the working poor are people who earn below the poverty line despite actively working factors such as low wages due to a lack of education contribute to this pitfall a person can be stuck in a feedback loop with little prospect of escaping perhaps they can't afford to go back to school because they need to work to survive or the lack of finances keeps them from securing a better paid job approximately 11% of US families are classed as working poor now ask yourself what happens to these people when the basic entry-level jobs become obsolete in the face of technology today the quantity of jobs lost and the time frame in which jobs could be lost is far greater and shorter than ever before we're essentially raising the bar of what is considered an entry-level unskilled job by making technology which is capable of that task we're pitting humans against machines and there seems to be a clear favorite humans can only work about eight hours a day they need lunch breaks and time off an algorithm or a robot can work basically 24/7 it doesn't need any of that other stuff if you're a CEO and just thinking about profits it's not a hard decision to make and this is where some people argue that the money for ubi should come from sometimes it's referred to as a robot tax basically the money save should go into other areas to help support society Bill Gates argues that a robot tax would be logical to insure a company is paying its fair share companies with lower automation wouldn't be taxed that much but a company that heavily uses automation would be taxed a bit higher it's unlikely to stifle the progression of automation simply the robot tax is a proposed method of ensuring that the increased productivity of automation is captured by society and not just a singular company so as said this money could go towards the ubi system though all of this is just a very rough idea of ubi but there's one man that's taking a very detailed look at the issue if you accept that were the greatest economic transformation we've already gotten rid of five million manufacturing jobs four million due to automation and 30 percent of malls and stores are closing and being a retail clerks the number one job in the economy how do you solve that problem 2020 American presidential candidate Andrew yang is perhaps one of the only politicians in the world thinking seriously about this problem in fact as mentioned he's based most of his campaign around the issue yen proposes $1,000 per month for a starting amount for ubi let's use it as an example people both rich and poor would be entitled to receive this payment you can opt out if you feel that you don't need it with this thousand dollars basically every single person can be insured a minimum standard so why is this better than the current welfare solution well there's people on both sides of the argument firstly let's look at someone living on welfare if that person was paid $1,000 per month by the state for being unemployed it may incentivize them to not seek employment as their welfare payment would decrease or be taken away completely once they've started earning money from the job say they found a job paying $2,000 a month depending on the program and the country they may lose their $1,000 welfare payment entirely and hence might only be $1,000 better off than they were on welfare now let's suppose that this same person was receiving $1,000 under EBI well if they accepted that $2,000 job this person would now be exactly $2,000 better off than when they were unemployed and on welfare of course there are different and more complex examples of welfare systems that attempt to curb this disincentive but overall this is one argument for ubi it may help incentivize the lowest income groups to work improving their situation and the economy as a whole however the argument then follows that people who are inherently lazy and unmotivated to work will be given an excuse to keep being the way that they are but it can also be said that this is negligible compared to the increase in productivity that we'll have from automation and AI but then again it's in people's human nature to not just survive but live comfortably maybe a better education for their kids a bigger car or a bigger house there are more motivations to work than simply covering the necessities and this is what ubi aims to address people might also decrease their time at work in order to spend more time doing what they love and less of what they have to do but in the face of increasing automation and AI this may not be their choice and we'll get to that in a bit so where is all of this money magically going to come from well as mentioned before that's where taxes and companies join the conversation with increases in overall productivity and lower cost due to automation companies may be more profitable and hence pay more taxes taking a look at the current welfare system and Rianne believes that the economics of EB I can work according to yang the u.s. currently spends 1.5 trillion dollars on various welfare programs a national 1.8 trillion would have to be necessary to introduce his EBI speaking on various podcasts including Joe Rogan's and Sam Harris's young outlines that the size of the US economy is approximately 20 trillion with about 4 billion of that being the federal budget he claims according to several studies giving the average American an additional $1,000 per month would result in 40 billion dollars in new tax due to increased spending this is because the money in the hands of the average American would flow right back into the economy as they would spend it on food car repairs childcare and so on yang cites studies which projects 2 million new jobs and an 8 to 10 percent growth in the economy do Tevi spending a further 100 to 200 billion dollars will be saved on incarceration and emergency services as crime would be expected to marginally decrease this is all educated speculation on Yang's part but it's still very interesting to think about in total yang claims that about a trillion of the 1.8 trillion required can be claimed back by various net positives there ubi creates the economy the remaining eight hundred billion yang attributes to tax and companies that are profiting from the automation of jobs much like the robot tax he argues that much of the world already has something called a value-added tax and if the united states introduced this that even at half the rent europe has it would be able to claim that last 800 billion he also goes on to say that alaska has effectively had a type of ubi for decades residents received $2,000 per year from the state funded taxes from oil companies essentially ubi is meant to make sure everyone gets a slice of the pie and not just the big oil or tech companies as yang puts it technology is the oil of the 21st century we do start need to be thinking about this fast for the sake of 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States with the rise of driverless cars companies are beginning to realize the potential of driverless trucks for the people affected it's not a matter of if but when [Music] during the history of humanity from time to time we experienced these massive shifts however they have happened over decades or longer allowing people to get retrained into new jobs to be created from this technology the current changes though are much faster and aside from finding new jobs for masses of people its said that historically government-funded retraining programs of displaced workers have had success rates from 0% to 15% so not only do we need to create jobs as quickly as the technology is displacing it we would have to find a way to become amazing at retraining and that's not been the case historically while jobs may be created from all this disruption the question is how many jobs and will these jobs be accessible to unskilled workers who were displaced or will be as newly created jobs require skilled workers such as programmers and data analysts early results from a recent pilot program in Finland found that ubi didn't help in getting people who were unemployed into jobs but it did make them happier and less stressed about 50% of participants reported being healthier and having a better overall well-being while the rest remained the same Y Combinator the startup accelerator which funded air B&B will be launching a ubi study in the United States in 2019 after three years of regulatory obstacles other experiments are ongoing or a set to kick off soon in Germany the Netherlands Italy and Uganda many other governments are seemingly interested in exploring the idea but we may not know the success or failure of ubi for a few more years after more research is conducted on the backs of these trial programs despite trials of EBI being conducted as early as the 1960s there's still a lot we don't know when it comes to the practical implementations of the idea one of the main arguments against TBI is that it would subsidize people to be lazy giving them an excuse not to work this may be true to some extent former vice journalist Tim Poole argues that ubi will simply allow people to do nothing while at the same time demanding higher wages from jobs hence increasing the cost of goods and services Tim however does agree that in the face of increasing automation something like this would be necessary probably one of the least discussed but potentially devastating consequences of ubi is that some economists think that such a measure could collapse the entire global economy so if you understand and can recognize the data and math behind these indicators then you don't have to so much guess what's gonna happen you could follow the data and this way you could try to be on the right side of the trade I believe that bond market will absolutely implode in the near future but you have them say that dynamic behind that to prepare for the bond market food from bond prices to implode meaning crash and yield to skyrocket you're gonna need the money multiplier on m2 to skyrocket Lac that happened you're gonna need things like modern monetary theory universal basic income your new you need to go around and circumnavigate the banking system and send cash directly to people that's all coming in the wake of the next recession it's just not gonna happen now as they state the measure such as EBI could cause the United States bond market to crash a bond market crash is much worse than a stock market crash or a recession because this indicates a lack of confidence in the fundamental fiat currency or the government controlling their currency and when that happens is very hard to recover from and since the US dollar is the world's global reserve currency this could have a follow-on effect much worse than the 2008 financial crisis but if I'm being honest nobody really knows if this will happen and no one really knows for a hundred percent what in terms of the economic consequences another argument is that inflation will be caused by the people demanding higher pay and businesses hiking up the prices as more people have money to spend however a free-market would mean that business competition would make sure that the prices are as low as possible and while prices may increase due to wage increases it may be negligible compared to the overall benefit of the economy Jordan Peterson clinical psychologist and now famed internet personality also argues against TBI but does agree that is trying to address a problem we will have in the future in a world and an economy where robots outperform humans however Peterson argues that money alone wouldn't be enough to make people live a happy life he notes that people need a differentiated and delineated purpose and simply giving people money without that purpose is a wrong solution and this may be the biggest issue that ubi cannot solve so in conclusion and to be clear when free market innovation goes so far then nobody has new work we have to start thinking about things a little differently it may be essential to curb civil unrest and poverty if companies begin to use robots as labour wealth inequality may widen as the poor and unskilled will no longer be able to find work while still needing food and the necessities that those companies produce without some kind of tax or wealth distribution system it might just be that the owners of these companies may be the only ones who reap the rewards the main idea of uPA is ensuring that people don't get left behind the market is still free it's just an idea and a solution to the process that we're in when we start to approach peak capitalism it will be a time we were so efficient at creating goods and services that we just no longer need large portions of people for these jobs under ubi people will have more free time to enjoy activities such as spending time with family and friends but human nature has an inherent desire to be productive and to contribute something meaningful to the world sure a lot of people do complain about their work and they dream of winning the lottery and never having to work again perhaps these people may be happy for the first few months of not working but a few years down the road they may get the feeling of a life without purpose when it comes to ubi people often flippantly say well now everyone is free to pursue their own passion but they forget the empathetic angle everyone isn't them there are also a lot of people in this world without passions or hobbies it can be said that curiosity is the start of passion follow the trail of what you're curious about and then develop that into a passion others still might even find that hard to do so what happens to them if technology does replace their jobs and they're unable to retrain then what meaning will they find in life that's personal to them and only they can solve that problem so automation is on the way advances in technology are too great to ignore the people at the bottom of the workforce are going to start being replaced ubi may be able to solve the issue of how everyone will be able to feed themselves in this future but what about that more burning question of purpose now that might be harder to solve so that wraps up our look at universal basic income I think this video is pretty important for people to fully understand what's going on in our world today if you did enjoy it it would mean a lot if you could share it so more people can learn if you want to see more videos like this or anything in the range of business science technology and history I cover a range of topics on this channel and there's some really good stuff coming up so feel free to subscribe there's also a new podcast version of these videos coming up and I'll leave a link for that below anyway this has been - gogo and you've been watching cold fusion and I'll see you again soon for the next video cheers guys have a good one [Music] cold fusion if you thinking [Music] [Applause] [Music]

Channel: undefined

Views: 612,509

Rating: 4.8367038 out of 5

Keywords: Coldfusion, TV, Dagogo, Altraide, Technology, Apple, Google, Samsung, Facebook, Tesla, Ubi, Andrew yang

Id: OQjrhIyaPyg

Length: 22min 38sec (1358 seconds)

Published: Mon Jul 01 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/AutoModerator]

Please remember we are here as a representation of Andrew Yang. Do your part by being kind, respectful, and considerate of the humanity of your fellow users.

If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.

Helpful Links: Policy Page - Media Library - State Subreddits - Donate

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/just_another_tard]

Nice, I love Coldfusion! One more excellent video we can spread around to raise awareness for the issue of automisation!

[u/Holos620]

The argument that you need to struggle to get a job, and that through this job you get meaning of life is pretentious as fuck.

Looking at the world and how humanity destroys it, we ought to be a little bit more philosophical and deliberate about what our meaning of life is.

[u/Mjekerrziu]

Everyone go to the comment section and do the thing.