COHEN GROUP, SERVING UNDER
PRESIDENT CLINTON AND AS A SENATOR FROM MAINE.
THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS, AS
FAR AS WHAT WE KNOW ON WHAT IS GOING ON, HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE
THESE ADVANCEMENTS? >> I THINK IT IS QUITE
SIGNIFICANT THAT YOU HAVE THESE TERRITORIES REGAINED BY THE
UKRAINIANS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THEY ALMOST DOUBLED OVERNIGHT THE TERRITORY THEY SEIZED.
THIS HAS SOMETHING A LOT ABOUT THE RUSSIANS, NUMBER ONE, AND
THEY ARE NOT 10 FEET TALL. THEY ARE POORLY TRAINED,
EQUIPPED, LEAD, AND FED. ALL OF THOSE THINGS ARE BEING
REFLECTED IN THE WAY THEY WERE ROUTED AND THEY DID NOT RETREAT
OR REGROUP, THEY HAD A ROUTE, THEY WERE ROUTED.
I THINK IT SAYS A LOT ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY
AND WHERE THEY ARE, SAYS A LOT MORE ABOUT THE UKRAINIANS
BECAUSE UKRAINIANS ARE NOW FIRED UP.
THEY HAVE SAID TO US, YOU GIVE US THE MEANS, WE WILL PROVIDE
THE MUSCLE. WHAT WE NEED IS MORE EQUIPMENT.
MORE EQUIPMENT WE CAN MORE EASILY TARGET THE RUSSIANS,
THAT WE CAN SHOOT AND SCOOT SO TO SPEAK IN TERMS OF MOBILITY
BEHIND OTHER EQUIPMENT. SO THEY'RE ASKING FOR MORE
EQUIPMENT, ASKING FOR MORE HELP ON THE RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES
OR HELPING PEOPLE TO STAY IN UKRAINE BECAUSE THE LONGER THE
REFUGEES STAY IN POLAND AND OTHER COUNTRIES, THE HARDER IT
WILL BE FOR THEM TO GO BACK. ANY SHORT-TERM HELP ON THE
REFUGEES AND THEY NEED SHORT-TERM HELP ON
RECONSTRUCTION TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE POWER, LIGHTS, FOOD,
WATER, ALL OF THE THINGS BEING ATTACKED BY PUTIN AT THIS POINT.
DAVID: MR. SECRETARY, YOU HAVE HAD
EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE WITH RUSSIA AND BEFORE THAT THE
SOVIET UNION, YOU OBSERVED PRESIDENT PUTIN FOR A GOOD LONG
TIME. MY IMPRESSION IS HE DID NOT
LIKE TO BACK DOWN. WHAT SHOULD WE BE PREPARED TO
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ABOUT HIS RESPONSE.
THUS FAR HE IS NOT SAYING HE WILL TAKE HIS FORCES AND GO
HOME. SEC. COHEN: I DON'T THINK HE IS HEADED FOR
THE ISLAND THAT NAPOLEON DID THAT WAS EXILED THERE.
I DO NOT THINK HE WILL GO GENTLY INTO THE GOOD NIGHT.
I DON'T THINK THE FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT FOR HIM IF HE CONTINUES
TO SUFFER THIS KIND OF LOSS WHETHER THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN AGAINST HIM. THERE IS TALK HE MAY START A
DRAFT AND HAVE A CALL UP OF FORCES.
PERHAPS HE COULD DO THAT IN THE SHORT TERM, PEOPLE SAY IT IS
NOW A WAR AND NOT A SPECIAL MISSION.
THAT COULD HAVE ITS OWN DYNAMIC TO UNDERMINE HIM AT HOME.
ON THE OTHER HAND, EGG IS A NOW WE HAVE A BIGGER FIGHTING FORCE
AND THEY WON'T BE WELL-TRAINED AND WELL LED IN THE SHORT-TERM,
BUT IN THE LONG TERM, RUSSIA IS STILL BIG.
IT IS A BIG, STRONG COUNTRY IN TERMS OF ITS OIL, IN TERMS OF
ITS GUNS AND MILITARY EQUIPMENT. I SUSPECT PUTIN IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO MAKE A LONG-TERM CAMPAIGN TO SEE IF HE CAN
CONTINUE TO TREAD THE FORCES IN UKRAINE BECAUSE THEY HAVE SO
MANY MORE PEOPLE TO OVERWHELM THEM.
THAT IS WHAT I EXPECT HE WILL TRY TO DO.
I ALSO THINK YOU WILL CONTINUE TO COMMIT WAR CRIMES.
HE COMMITTED MULTIPLE WAR CRIMES , NUMBER ONE BY INVADING
A NEUTRAL COUNTRY, NUMBER TWO, BY ATTACKING CIVILIANS AND
SLAUGHTERING THEM. NOW GOING AFTER THEIR FOOD
SUPPLIES, ELECTRICITY, AND POWER , THAT IS ANOTHER WAR
CRIME WAGED BY HIM. NOW WE ARE WORRIED -- NOT
WORRIED, CONCERNED I SHOULD SAY THAT HE MAY GO EVEN FURTHER.
THIS WAS TRUE WHEN THE CAMPAIGN INITIALLY WAS FOILED, WHEN THEY DID NOT TAKE KIEV, BUT WOULD HE
USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS I THINK THE WESTERN WORLD HAS TO GET
TOGETHER AND NOT WAIT THAT IF HE DOES THIS, THESE ARE THE
THINGS WE ARE PREPARED TO DO. WE CANNOT LET THIS GO AS JUST
ANOTHER FORM OF FIGHTING. CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAVE BEEN
OUTLAWED FOR DECADES NOW. NUCLEAR WEAPONS, NOT ALLOWED TO
BE USED ON THE BATTLEFIELD. IF HE DOES ANY OF THESE, WE
HAVE TO HAVE A PLAN. THE WORLD HAS TO HAVE A PLAN TO
SAY IF YOU DO THIS, THESE ARE THE CONSEQUENCES.
I WOULD NOT BE ANXIOUS TO SPELL THEM OUT BUT I WOULD BE
PREPARED TO INVOKE THEM IMMEDIATELY AND THE DEVASTATING
IMPACT UPON RUSSIA ITSELF, DOES NOT HAVE TO BE MILITARY BUT
CERTAINLY HAS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL. DAVID: YOU MENTIONED ADVANCED WEAPONRY
WE HAVE BEEN PROVIDED, NATO AS WELL AS THE UNITED STATES, TO
THE UKRAINIANS. IS THIS A TIME GIVEN THE
SUCCESS THAT WE SHOULD RECONSIDER THE AIRCRAFT ISSUE?
SEC. COHEN: I THINK THERE IS ALWAYS TIME TO
THINK ABOUT THAT. IN THE BEGINNING, WE WERE
WORRIED IF WE PROVIDED THAT EQUIPMENT AND CAPABILITIES THAT
WOULD SEND PUTIN -- SET HIM OFF ON A MORE AGGRESSIVE ATTACK
UPON UKRAINE. I THINK THE MORE HE ENGAGES IN
WHAT IS CLEARLY HEINOUS ACTIVITY, THEN IT IS MORE
LIKELY OTHER COUNTRIES INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES
WILL BE MORE WILLING TO PROVIDE THAT EQUIPMENT AND CAPABILITY
TO THE UKRAINIANS. WE HAVE SEEN, WHEN WE GIVE THEM
WHAT THEY NEED, THEY ARE ABLE TO HOLD THEIR OWN, ABLE TO
INFLICT A SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE UPON THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, EVEN
THOUGH THEY ARE HEAVILY OUTNUMBERED.
MY ONLY WAY OF THINKING, YOU COULD TAKE A WELL FRAMED, WELL
MUSCLED MIDDLEWEIGHT GOING UP AGAINST AN OBESE HEAVYWEIGHT.
CAN THE MIDDLEWEIGHT HOLD ITS OWN UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES
IF YOU GIVE HIM THAT'S MUSCLE IN TERMS OF EQUIPMENT?
THEN THEY ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN. I THING WE HAVE TO GIVE THEM
WHATEVER THEY NEED AND TRY NOT TO CROSS A LINE THAT WILL SET
IN MOTION A COUNTERATTACK THAT WILL BE SIMPLY DESIGNED TO
DESTROY UKRAINE. HE IS CAPABLE OF THAT AND THAT
IS WHY THE WESTERN WORLD HAS TO BE WILLING TO STAND UP AND SAY
THESE ARE UNACCEPTABLE. YOU STARTED A WAR, YOU ARE
LOSING A WAR, THAT IS UP TO YOU TO FIND A PATHWAY OFF.
BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO TOLERATE ANYONE USING CHEMICAL,
BIOLOGICAL, OR NUCLEAR WEAPONS. DAVID:
FINALLY, TO PUT IT IN A BROADER CONTEXT, WE HAVE TOMORROW,
PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA, MEETING PRESIDENT PUTIN A SECOND TIME,
TO REDOUBLE THEIR FRIENDSHIP AND COMMITMENT TO ONE ANOTHER.
HOW IMPORTANT IS THAT TO US, THE UNITED STATES, AND TO
UKRAINE AND NATO? SEC. COHEN: I THINK IT IS VERY IMPORTANT.
OVER THE YEARS WE TRIED TO MAKE SURE WE DID NOT PUSH RUSSIA
INTO THE ARMS OF THE CHINESE. THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING IN THAT
DIRECTION EVER SINCE WE HAVE BEEN MOVING AWAY CERTAINLY FROM
RUSSIA BUT ALSO FROM CHINA. A NUMBER OF US HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO SAY IS THERE ANYWAY WE CAN LOOK TO CHINA, THE
SECOND-BIGGEST ECONOMY IN THE WORLD, A MILITARY POWER? I WOULD PUT THEM IN THE
COMPETITOR CATEGORY IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY HAVE INVESTED IN
THEIR MILITARY. ARE THERE AREAS WE CAN EITHER
COOPERATE, COLLABORATE, OR CONFRONT IF WE HAVE TO?
I WOULD WANT TO EXPLORE WHAT CAN WE DO TOGETHER?
CAN WE DO SOMETHING TOGETHER ON FOOD SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY,
PANDEMIC COOPERATION, THE HEALTH NEEDS OF THE CHINESE
PEOPLE AND THE UNITED STATES? THOSE ARE AREAS WE CAN CONTINUE
TO WORK WITH THEM. THE OTHER CHOICE WOULD BE TO
DISENGAGE, DECOUPLE OUR ECONOMIES AND I DO NOT THINK
THAT IS A GOOD IDEA. BUT I THINK IT IS WORTH US
PURSUING. I THINK THE PRESIDENT, BITING,
WILL TRY TO PURSUE THOSE AREAS WE FEEL WE CAN COOPERATE AND
COLLABORATE RATHER THAN SAY YOU ARE AN ADVERSARY AND WE WILL
CONFRONT YOU ON EACH AND EVERY ISSUE AND MAY THE BEST COUNTRY
WIN. I DO NOT THINK THAT IS SOMETHING WE WANT TO DO.
I DO NOTHING WE WILL HAVE ALLIES IN THE END OF PACIFIC
REGION THAT WILL SUPPORT THAT. THEY WOULD WANT US TO BE A
FORCE IN THE REGION, THEY DO NOT WANT US TO FORCE THEM TO
MAKE A CHOICE. DO THEY DEAL WITH CHINA AS A
FRIEND OR UNITED STATES? THEY LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES
AS A FRIEND BUT THEY DO NOT WANT US TO START ACTIONS THAT
WILL PUT THEM IN A POSITION OF HAVING TO CHOOSE.
THEY ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND WE ARE NOT.
IT IS ALWAYS A CONCERN ON THEIR PART. DAVID:
MR. SECRETARY, THANK YOU FOR SPENDING YOUR TIME TODAY WITH
US.
