Ukraine could ‘certainly take Crimea’ as Putin loses grip | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

we know the Kirch bridge is is um is probably the Achilles Hill of Russia um it's it's so much in the SS for Ukraine to attack and so likely that it it will do at some stage that that would really cut the head off the Crimea snake now as you mentioned the Black Sea fleet has gone there is no um virtually no Naval pres presence in the Black Sea now which gives Ukraine freedom of maneuver wi which will be critical the the big question is could they break through the sovin line the defensive lines which have been so difficult at the moment um and if they can I think yes they certainly could take Crimea and and of what is included in the a package and we don't know the you know full shopping list as it were is it the attacks that you think will be the most crucial well the attacks are what we call a strategic weapon in other words they have the opportunity to hit strategic targets these are targets that can have a demonstrative effect on the way that the Russian wages war and particularly the sort of logistic support So attacking the rail hubs the roads Bridges I think it's it's no secret that Ukraine intends to take out the cers bridge the main Bridge from Russia into Crimea where a lot of um their military hardware flows so that is why the attacks is so crucial but also it's just the amount of artillery amunition and tank ammunition which Ukraine has been you know really suffering with not having I mean the Russians are firing 10 artillery rounds to every one Ukrainian at the moment and you know as we've discussed before and as we're seeing on the front you know Mass has a real quality of its own and you know although we thought this was sort of first world war type um uh uh usage rates actually the trench warfare in the dbass is virtually similar virtually no difference to the trench warfare in passionale and the S you know well over a 100 years ago so yeah just that weight of ammonition is key as well as well as the smart stuff I wanted to ask you homish about how realistic you think it is for Ukraine to one day recapture Crimea I was speaking yesterday on front line to Michael ban who's who's been with the times since 1972 as a foreign correspondent columnist leader writer he knows his stuff and he was quite pessimistic about Ukraine ever recapturing crime and I put the counterargument that if you look at the success that Ukraine has had at eliminating much of the Black Sea Fleet if you look at the way they've been targeting the kurur bridge that actually it may not necessarily be out of the question where do you stand on that well this is a really interesting point um I think what uh Ukraine has done is in in military terms we we call it preparing the battlefield so from a strategic perspective preparing the battlefield to attack Crimea has gone pretty well they have hit a lot of targets deep in Crimea a lot of airfields taken down a lot of um some of the Russians top fighter jets and bombers um they have made a lot of them move out of Crimea and they've interdicted a lot of um refineries ammunition dumps not only in Crimea but but also in Russia um we know the Kirch bridge is is um is probably the Achilles Hill of Russia um it's it's so much in the sight for Ukraine to attack and so likely that it it will do at some stage that that would really cut the head off the crier snake now as you mentioned the Black Sea fleet has gone there is no um virtually no Naval pres presence in the Blacky now which gives Ukraine freedom of maneuver W which will be critical the big question is could they break through the sovin line the defensive lines which have been so difficult at the moment um and if they can I think yes they certainly could take Crimea um and whether you know whether that will help Quicken the end of the war or not is a case to to to consider but I I don't think taking crime a is completely out of the question and um you know it it could be a very key sort of um element in the future uh to to to get some sort of meaningful piece so yeah I I would say crime a is is is up for grabs and if um Ukraine gets all the kit that it needs um that it's coming through now it might be a in a better position to do that and if it gets you know the Ukraine Iron Dome we've been talking about and gains their superiority then yeah again it's another bit of the jigsa making it more lightly so I wouldn't write off primier at this stage just to go back to to the issue of the West taking the threat posed by Russia increasingly serious ious ly obviously we we've seen last week for example the UK making a pledge to increase its defense spending by 2030 and there seems to be a general realization that European countries do need to spend more on defense now that doesn't necessarily help Ukraine that's more to do with their own defense but but do you think we are seeing a Tipping Point now heh where where there is more of a realization that actually Russia does need to be confronted well this is a really really interesting point I think until quite recently you know defense was not an election issue and you know the election in this country and the election in the states um in November is you know is the the big elephant in the room um you know if people don't see defense as an issue then you know it could go very badly wrong and I think both both the main parties have now realized that actually um you know and I think I I've written recently you instead of going to the polling booths in November we could all be going to the recruitment centers to pick up our kit to go and fight uh in Europe so there hopefully and you know it's great thing that the Frontline uh pushes this and keeps it in the news hopefully people in the country are realizing that that war in Europe is is not a distant possibility I wouldn't say it's the most likely possibility but it it is possible and the the more we ignore it the more likelihood it will happen um as people are talking we're in a pre-war phase at the moment the way in a pre-war phase to prevent war is to show to your enemy that you are preparing for it you are stronger than them and you will you know follow through your actions until very recently I think Putin has looked at us and looked at our conventional deterrence and has not been deterred and we've got a catch up to do um you know we we have paid lip service to our conventional deterrence since the end of the Cold War whereas Putin has done absolutely the opposite now we we have been caught mapping um what on Earth and and it's a political thing I'm afraid you know it's one sees and I'm sure you discuss it all the time people are generally more concerned about climate change they're more concerned about the clost of living crisis they're more concerned about what's happening uh in Gaza but they're not seeing what's happening on their doorstep that actually all those things if we get the defense wrong and don't have a a credible conventional deterrence those things could be horrifically irrelevant because we will we will be at War and what we must absolutely do and for somebody like myself who spent the last 35 years of my life on the battlefields of the world you know I've seen war and and you don't want it you've got to avoid it if at all possible and um we are only just waking up to it and let's hope we're not too late just finally hey we're having this conversation at the end of April what does a good may look like for Ukraine well a good May is is the front lines not moving anymore than than we're see at the moment a good May sees the f-16s arriving and creating with with all the other air defense and the long range missiles some sort of air superiority for Ukraine because once Ukraine has a superiority it can start maneuvering on the ground now I don't think that's going to start happening in May but I think the the psychological message that it will show send out to the Ukrainian people um who have felt for the last six months they felt on their own you know they say what you know why why why should young kids in Ukraine fight when America is and everybody else isn't giving them the hard way to do it so a good May is the rebuilding of morale in Ukraine and getting them back on the front foot rather than purely on the defensive and uh a bad May would be a significant Russian incursion and offensive and a bad May would would have us all really uh looking at the potential to fight um the Russians ourselves so let let's hope that the good May happens and not the bad May you've been watching Frontline for times radio my thanks to Lou Sykes our producer to support the work of Frontline hit the Subscribe button you can also listen to times radio throughout the day or read it at times.co.uk thanks for watching bye-bye

Channel: Times Radio

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Id: LwCkpZ7EELg

Length: 9min 24sec (564 seconds)

Published: Wed May 01 2024