Turkey’s Centennial Election: What Is at Stake?

welcome welcome everybody to the Cato Institute I'm Ian Vasquez vice president for international studies here turkey is at a Crossroads both literally and figuratively the country sits in between Europe Asia and the Middle East and it is also about to hold in just two days consequential elections both for the country and for the world two weeks ago The Economist magazine came out with the cover uh titled the most important election of 2023 it was of course referring to the Turkish elections this is a vote which will determine uh whether president erdogan who has been ruling turkey for 21 years in an increasingly autocratic style and in an increasingly erratic fashion will stay do more of the same or go if he loses The Economist magazine noted quote it would be a stunning political reversal with global consequences the Turkish people would be more free less fearful and in time more prosper also in an era when strong man rule is on the rise from Hungary to India the peaceful rejection of Mr erdogan would show Democrats everywhere that strong men can be beaten unquote a loss for erdogan would also change turkey's foreign policy with regard to Syria NATO the war in Ukraine and relations with Europe the United States and Russia but would erdogan who has accumulated so much power really accept defeat who are the opposition forces and what are their chances and what are the lessons to be drawn from turkey's turbulent democracy I'm very pleased that we're going to be able to discuss those questions with two preeminent Turkish experts and by Turkish experts I mean experts from turkey and experts on turkey that is Colonel toll and Mustafa Akio is the founding director of the Middle East institute's turkey program and a senior fellow with the Black Sea program she is the author of the recent book erdogan's War a strong man's struggle at home and in Syria and she's taught courses at George Washington University's Institute for Middle East studies and at the College of International Security Affairs at the National Defense University where she's been focusing on Turkey on Islamic movements in in Europe and World politics and on the Middle East she's written extensively on Turkey U.S relations domestic policies and foreign the foreign policy of of turkey my colleague Mustafa Akio is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute Center for Global liberty and prosperity where he focuses on the intersection of Islam and modernity since 2013 he's also been a frequent contributor to the opinion pages of the New York Times covering all sorts of topics from politics to religion and the Muslim world he is the author of numerous books including reopening Muslim Minds a return to reason freedom and tolerance why as a Muslim I defend Liberty and Islam without extremes a Muslim case for Liberty the thinking Muslim which is a popular podcast defined Akil as quote probably the most notable Muslim modernist and reformer I agree with that and in July of 2021 Prospect magazine in the UK listed him among the world's top 50 thinkers so welcome to both of you and let's begin with you Mustafa there's been a big deterioration of freedom in Turkey over the past decade or more and in fact in our own human Freedom index turkey ranks among the top uh 10 countries that have seen the biggest losses in Freedom over the past 10 or 15 years putting it alongside countries like Venezuela Hungary Egypt Hong Kong and so on so my question is can we really talk about turkey today as being a democracy I mean what kind of regime is it it's clearly been shifting towards authoritarianism and whatever name we give the regime what does it mean to hold elections under that kind of political setting uh thank you Ian that's very good question and uh I think turkey has been testing the uh example of how oppressive you can be while still remaining as an electoral democracy in the past 10 years um in other words it's an example of what some Scholars intellectuals call ill liberal democracy an extreme maybe version of that is that term rightly so I think in the 90s and it because when we speak of democracy we often in in the western at least tradition think of Elections combined with individual freedoms rule of law freedom of speech freedom of religion checks and balances now when you take all those liberal elements out and if you only leave ballots and in a divided Society where they're populous what happens well turkey is an interesting case of that and to give you a sense of like how Freedom like went down in Turkey in the past 10 years I'll just share a few things there's a law in Turkey which bends insulting the president the law was always there but it was not used too much because presidents were never very controversial people uh they were non-partisan when erdogan became president in 2014 he he soon switched it into a partisanship like part like a partisan predecess he he himself is very divisive so this law which penalizes insulting the president from one to four years has been used in an unbelievably you know uh aggressive way more than 160 000 people have been prosecuted in the past 10 years for insulting the president these are official figures like how does it go like I mean on Twitter you say something against the president a little bit you know too critical the police shows up at your door and you go there and you detained a little bit or maybe not but you know you get a legal case the most recently a 13 year old was taken to court for insulting the president on a WhatsApp chat in another famous case two men were chatting on the bus and one of them insulted the president and one of the responsible citizens heard that and called the police and when he got off the bus a few minutes later he was arrested by the police and you know taken there and so on so forth now is this a democracy well it sounds soyetic or very authoritarian in many ways well there are three elections competitive elections at least right I mean how free it is that's debatable but competitive elections also for example erdogan uh I'm saying these things because like why freedom of speech is important like here's a case also another thing that has happened in Turkey in the past 10 years is that all the major newspapers that Turkish people knew and read like miliet hurried these are papers everybody like New York Times or Wall Street Journal uh suddenly they all changed hands their owners felt a pleasure to sell these newspapers some people bought these newspapers these new businessmen turn out to be the best friends of the president surprisingly and all they all fired all the journalists who are critical of the government's line and replaced them were propagandists basically like imagine this as like New York Times Wall Street Journal Boston Globe all of them becoming Breitbart like in 10 years for some Curious reason of you know and this is happening because Judiciary has become a handmaiden of the government so by looking at all this it's my country Turkey it's really sad I mean what has happened in turkey and I think it's a lesson for really being strong about defense of Freedom which should not be reduced to Mere ballots because in in that case it can go down to the 30 of the majority which is what turkey is looking like however despite all this elections in Turkey have been genuine real like not rigged people say you know tall I mean I had these conversations in Washington oh you said people remind Stalin's code I mean it's not important who votes it's important who counts well turkey's not that for a few reasons one is since 1950 turkey has competitive elections that are not rigged and there's a system of doing that well established there's open vote everybody opposition parties are there open count there's a elector there's a Judicial body everyone has been packing that body with his people but still there are signs that they're not totally apparatics of the ruling party it's not easy to cheat in a system like that that's why erdogan's ruling party AKP lost Ankara and Istanbul to opposition in 2019 which was a major blow for them they actually were unhappy with the results so they recasted in Istanbul but it turned out worse so it shows that elections still matter that's why these elections have been very interesting because there is now there are certain signs that oh my God the opposition is stronger than ever before uh and one is the big economic downfall in Turkey because of erdogan's irrational policies mostly uh that has brought in poverty to society that has been more prosperous before when Aaron was doing the right reforms in the early 2000s and the opposition block is this time more united than ever you have Turkish Nationals and Kurdish you know left and even some uh religious conservatives who are disillusioned with adelon I call them the never arduanists they are now in the opposition block they they change the religion versus secularism dilemma which has been very they at least complicated to some extent so uh that brings us to a very interesting reality where oh my God it's a very authoritarian system in many ways but it can change change hands but what are the chances exactly I think Guru knows better than me and I don't want to take more much for our time but yeah I'll stop there okay thanks um gonna you recently wrote that if president erdogan wins another term turkey will degenerate further into authoritarianism in which elections will not matter um can you tell us what is at stake with these elections and maybe also uh possible scenarios sure and before that thank you Ian uh thank you Mustafa and Cato Institute for putting this this together it's a pleasure to be with you today a few things about uh what Mustafa has just said um he described turkey as an illiberal democracy and I disagree with that I think uh We've long passed that point because arduan managed to dismantle a democratic institutions to such an extent that we can safely call turkey and a competitive authoritarian regime where elections are still there and they are real but they are not free or fair so and Mustafa mentioned several instances well basically said that elections do matter and I uh and I agree with that but the anxiety around election security particularly among the country's opposition is not really unfounded erdogan has built a track record in 2015 for instance his ruling party lost the Parliamentary majority he didn't do anything illegal he just told Coalition talks to be able to call for a rerun of Elections and he did in a few months he managed to I recaptured the majority in 2017 turkey held a very controversial referendum that switched the country's parliamentary system to an executive presidency that granted unprecedented powers to erdogan and international observers raised a lot of concern about um how free those elections were they were widespread allegations of Fraud and on the day of the referendum the country's top electoral body made a decision to accept 2.5 million unstamped votes and in 2019 too when turkey held a Municipal elections erdogan didn't accept the election result in Istanbul so there is a those who are really worried about what might happen on Sunday um they are right in some ways but in others I think uh we are excited about it about the elections mainly because I do think elections still matter and and several reasons for that I think uh obviously all and I I said this in a recent piece that I wrote for foreign policy not all autocracies are created equal especially in this town when we talk about autocracies we have this tendency to uh to put together Russia China and and turkey in the same back but there are wide differences among those countries in Russia for instance before Russian elections we don't just um have to make a guess about the outcome in turkey that's not the case there is still a lot of uncertain T people call it a very it's going to be a very tight race so that uncertainty itself around the the outcome of the election makes Turkish case different than others like Russia and and China um and and one more thing about my expectations I think um again in autocracies you ask Mustafa how um erdogan managed to how we got here basically turkey was never a perfect democracy it was an aspiring democracy and yet here we are uh turkey ended up being an an autocracy and I think erdogan autocross they don't really need majorities to dismantle and Destroy democracy all they need is a divided opposition and arduan has always relied on alliances to take incremental steps to dismantle Democratic institutions he has done that and the opposition really has been a blessing for him because it's been very divided so here we are and and I'll tell you why I'm optimistic about the prospects of of turkey Turkish opposition in this upcoming vote and that is because arduan has nowhere else to turn he I think ran out of options in terms of Alliance making he in the past allied with the Kurds liberals social Democrats but right now Islam is and right now he doesn't have that many options he is still a popular leader don't get me wrong he still commends 40 to 45 percent but that is not enough to capture a clear majority on on Sunday and the second reason why I'm optimistic about about the opposition is that as Mustafa mentioned they are very unified now in 2018 when turkey held presidential elections for instance arduan captured 52 percent and that was that was his peak of popularity that was the most votes he could be able to capture in 2018 I think the political context was radically different than the political context that we're facing now in 2018 there were several opposition candidates five of them running separately against erdogan and today we have uh two and kalistarolu he is the candidate of the main opposition block and we have another uh marginal figures running from the far right um used to be a member of the far-right party and now he has a nationalist Coalition but pollsters put him his support somewhere between two to six seven percent so I think on Sunday the oppositions cliched are all those prospects of a win in the first round is strong uh but there is also a possibility that the vote could go go to a runoff but I don't see a scenario where erdogan secures a victory on on Sunday I think it's very Grim but you've said that uh you don't think that there are actual fair and free elections so suppose that the opposition does uh win at least in the first round what do you think the scenario would be under that uh unfair system that's right so let's imagine a scenario on Sunday uh opposition wins but only by a narrow margin right so what are ardons options he could easily pull at Trump and say that elections were stolen and that he doesn't accept election results he could do that but for him to be able to change the result he needs the backing of of Turkish bureaucracy and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Turkish bureaucracy a major bureaucratic institutions the security forces the military and the the country's electoral body are going to be backing and are the one who has just lost an election no matter how narrow that loss was so that gives me hope uh that he does control the top level bureaucracy but there are others in in turkey's institutions who first fear that they might face legal repercussions if the opposition ends up winning the vote becoming the government and second many of them truly think that another arduan term would be devastating for the country you recently wrote Mustafa that the scenarios are The Good The Bad and The Scary it sounds kind of like what uh saying um thank you and yes and good I think we don't disagree much on illiberal Democracy I mean electoral authoritarianism or competitive is maybe an advanced form of illiberal democracy yes turkey is on that slope like how far did it go and ultimately does democracy totally die within so I mean that's actually what you 4C not happily but I mean if this election add-on gets it maybe after that even elections will not matter much because everything is steadily going towards a very you know dark end so we are are seeing that but but coming back to Ian's question uh yeah I mean I just wrote this piece what are the people ask me like what are the options and uh one thing I want to say is this it's actually remarkable that despite the economic collapse despite earthquake in the government's terrible reaction to it and and the the corruption that actually led to so many people dying in in in this earthquake despite all that I don't want still is very popular right still I mean all other opposition parties coming together hoping to win him so I mean that's a political phenomenon and I think and it's very interesting that his narrative has changed over the years in the earlier years he was making reasonable reforms I was supportive I mean most people that I know are supportive uh he was heading towards the European union he was speaking of Freedom he was free market reforms Turkish economy did really well now that's all gone now he's building warships and warplanes and and greatness and he's making turkey Muslim and great again and he's defying the imperialists he applies changed I mean his his allies include now Turkish maoists headed by doll parenting beijing's men and Ankara who supports erdogan because he's anti-American and that's great so very interesting political phenomenon but I think one thing is that he's been cashing on this religion versus secularism thing in Turkey successfully and I think it's a warning for every society if you divide the country rather versus Blue on cultural lines you know populists may serve on that and to you know ultimately erode democracy so the the scenarios um yeah I see three scenarios basically here the bad the good scenario is that the opposition candidate wins and especially if it's a decisive clear Victory where you can't say stop the still I don't think erdogan can do anything but conceit he cannot say I'm abolishing democracy or something like that he can't because his whole narrative is based on the fact that he's elected the people are behind me the people being 50 plus you know 50 plus of the vote but that's the whole legitimacy so I don't think he can hold that um so that's a good salary okay sure all the wins and another one has to accept some people think that the economy is in such a bad shape that actually he will let the opposition try to manage it and things get bad and hope to come back that's the good scenario still the bad scenario is that everyone can still win I mean I I don't I mean I see a lot of a position uh people my friends saying oh yeah this is finished I don't know is losing it I'm not that sure I think he still has it's very tight um a third one is what the scary scenario so the the good one is what position wins the bad one is adwon wins the scary one is that the opposition wins with a very small margin an add-on might try to recast it and he can do something like the stop to steal moment here in January 6 in America I not going to happen that would be scary in Turkey worse than what has happened in in this town on January 6th if I could even say something about we're talking about scenarios here so I think the wisest option for arduan imagine if he's uh is lost by a narrow margin instead of not accepting defeat I think it would be wiser for him just to accept defeat and wait for the new government to fail because I mean the argument here is in personalist autocracies like turkey for instance autocrats they face worst Fates than autocrats in other types of autocracies right they might end up in jail they might end up in Exile or dead so that's why they do everything in their power not to let that happen so they they fight a good fight before accepting the result but in erdogan's case I see those options as not likely and that's because I think he's not going to flee the country if he loses the elections because he still has a very strong following as Mustafa mentioned it's like 40 45 percent it's really amazing for a man who has been around for 20 years so he still has a strong following so I think he's gonna stay in the country and if let's say he doesn't accept the result and that leads to Street violence that could really he he doesn't have the the the 100 support from from Turkish bureaucracy so he could face a more severe legal repercussions afterwards and instead he could just accept the result and just wait for the opposition to fail which is not unlikely given all the pressing and serious problems that the country face and we will have a new government if the opposition wins that's going to be ideologically very diverse and it's going to be difficult to keep them together right um use you said which I think is accurate that you don't need a majority in order to be in the position that erdogan has been in um you can flip a country and I've seen this in Latin America and Venezuela and other countries with the minority of the population and I think that seems to be what he's trying to do but the question I have for you is going back to this issue of how popular he is I mean the economy is doing terribly there's more than 40 percent uh inflation the the currency has devalued tremendously things aren't going well and yet he still has a big chunk of the population behind him why is that how come that persists it's not just I imagine it's not just because the opposition has traditionally been divided that's right well I think you you have to really look at um the people who are still on arduan's side I think some of them are tied to him ideologically so no matter what happens they're always going to back him because this is what they think they think they were talking about conservatives and islamists we're talking about people who fear and that fear has been fed by arduan they fear that if the opposition comes to power they're going to lose all the Privileges that they have secured under erdogan right because we're talking about a large middle class conservative middle class erdogan came to power and lifted them out of poverty so they now have privileges that they were denied by the previous the secularists in power the secularists to establishment save them from the hijab bands right that's exactly right liberal aspects of the previous regime that's exactly right so you can if you're a veiled woman you can wear your hijab if you're working for the police for State institutions so that is the legacy of Ardon for them so they're going to stick with him no matter what and you have another group of people who are not tied to him ideologically but they are tied to him because of common interests erdogan created a large client holistic Network so if you are a member of his Arc party for instance and if you have that ID card from Arc party that opens a lot of doors um so I think it's it's a it's a combination of of those things uh and that's uh and I'm gonna say something about what Mustafa said he's he's very popular and I think if he hadn't switched to a presidential system he would still secure a majority because when he first came to power in 2002 what was it he secured 37 percent 34 or 37. so he secured 37 percent of the vote and in Parliament that translated into almost 60 percent majority so under the parliamentary system uh his prospects of winning this election was much greater but he shot himself in the foot by switching to a presidential system which requires a 50 plus majority to win surely the reason that um the middle class is better off today is because of his initial economic reforms in the early years of market-oriented that really boosted growth and then he has turned back on uh much of that certainly on in macroeconomic policy per capita income is down 15 percent just in the last uh few years that's a that's a big loss you mentioned that you think that his best bet if he loses is to just step aside and wait for the new government to fail so my question is to both of you what are the prospects of a new government actually turning things around economically what what are they proposing can they get inflation under control can they get growth back can they get investment back what's going on there um let me take this quickly um Ian you pointed out something very interesting adelons early years were a big success economically and politically as well and that had a lot to do with embracing free market reforms that was connected to the EU path but also there were competent people in addon's government like Alibaba John who was the economies are for almost 15 years maybe 14 years um and he's a he's a well-educated man who knows the economy and he believes in markets and you know against corruption and nepotism and all that arowan got rid of him at some point because he did not fit into this letter day erdogan which wanted to manipulate everything through nepotism just this morning I heard erdogan saying you know one of the discussions in Turkey is that the rising prices of everything including onions and potatoes and erdogan said today those who are raising the onion and potato prices we know what why they're doing this we'll take care of them after the elections like he's being showing now Rising prices as a conspiracy against him and he actually his followers have been saying the supermarkets are conspiring against the government I mean that sounds very communist and you know that that's the kind of a scary path that they're going so if erdogan goes down this path I would worry more command economy leading to more crash you know in the economy and shortages and so stuff like that but if the opposition comes um the head of the opposition he's not the most charismatic politician in Turkey but a lot of people love him because he's not erdogan right and he's and he's gentle and reasonable and likable person compared to some other figures there uh he's not very great maybe on the economy but he has Alibaba John in his team so some of the people who actually built akp's success are now in the opposition and they will be helping the government to make some reforms it will be difficult but I think if there's a new government with the opposition things will start to feel much better they have a lot of issues but there will be just optimism in the Turkish economy there will be more investment people are scared to invest because they don't know where this goes so I would expect to see a you know a kind of improvement some restoration as they're saying of Sanity rule of law and and hopefully economic progress as well be good no going back to the Charisma question I get that question a lot about Kmart and this is what I think right now turkey needs a surgeon because the the damage that Ardon has done to the country is so extensive that the new president will have to build a country almost from scratch and you really don't need your surgeon to be charismatic you just want him to get things done and now on that question will he be able to get things done that's I think it's going to be very tough because it's going to be tough for several reasons first the country's problems are really so dramatic especially in the post-earthquake context and he made the opposition made a lot of promises switching back to a reformed version of parliamentary system addressing the country's Kurdish problem rebuilding institutions and rebuilding trust in those institutions fixing the economic problems fixing uh the the 4 million Syrian refugee problems so that's a long list of problems that will require a considerable considerable amount of political Capital so the question is will the new president have that political Capital because he is his Coalition is a diverse Coalition so what happens if erdogan is not in the picture will that Coalition disintegrate will there be infighting and again my theory is that erdogan even if he loses he's not gonna be out of the picture he's going to be in the picture which will force these opposition parties to stick together to address the country's problems and I think in terms of being able to fix those provide a solution to those problems I think there's just we've seen um on the campaign trail that actually popular opposition demand for change is so strong that popular opposition is the driving force here so political parties they've made so many mistakes uh in the last year or so their internal squabbling internal fighting and yet every time Society just called the shots and asked them to get together get their act together so I think moving forward even if there is that drive or push from certain parties to go their own way I think that popular demand for change is so strong that they are gonna have to offer Solutions can you say something about the prospects of U.S turkey relations or Turkish EU relations under the different scenarios well I think um if opposition wins on Sunday we can expect a more constructive Turkish foreign policy in terms of turkey us ties I think there are several drivers there what the new government's Russia policy is going to be the key because from Washington's point of view Turkish Russia especially Putin's close ties with erdogan has been a major problem so how will the new government act there I think there will be continuity and change turkey and Russia are very close trade and Energy Partners meaning they will continue to work no matter who wins the the upcoming vote but on the other hand the most dramatic change is going to be the new government is not gonna go out of its way to allow Russia to circumvent Russian sanctions there are right now many Russian companies set up in turkey and erdogan basically through a Lifeline to put in in the aftermath of of Ukraine Invasion you're not going to see that with a new government and I think that is going to be welcomed by Washington and the second question I think that will determine the tone of turkey US size is going to be where the new government stands on the Russian missile the s-400 question I think there's there's political will on the part of the Turkish opposition to fix ties with with Washington with European Union so I think they're all these are all very positive signals coming from from the opposition ranks but I think we should also note that foreign policy is is not made in a vacuum so it's how this new turkey is received by Washington and by European capitals is also going to play a key role on how turkey Western ties is gonna is gonna play out after the elections yeah I mean I agree with General and I think it starts an exaggeration to say that Russia would prefer that add-on stays in power there are many signs for that and it's interesting that although the opposition leader tweeted yesterday from her own seeing our Russian friends please do not interfere in our elections on favor on I mean I don't know what that interference exactly would be but there is a belief in opposition circles that Russia can do something to help erdogan in these elections Russia already held natural gas payments like politically so help add on in a sense and adon's narrative has become very anti-western in the past seven six seven years eight years since his turn but from beginning from 2013 that will change of course turkey will still have some national issues where it will disagree with Washington I mean the Syrian Kurdish forces for turkey is a matter of concern for understandable reasons that will be an issue but those can be dealt in a more rational and constructive way without the ideological you know anti-western narrative I think that has dominated Turkish policy in the past several years so before I go to the audience for questions I'll ask one more uh question and that is the issue of refugees and asylum in Turkey particularly syrians I think there's something like four million of them in in the country and of course that's also an issue that affects the EU and how that's handled um how is that likely to change were the opposition to to to come into power it's a tricky issue for any democratic government and and unfortunately what the opposition is proposing is not realistic either so for a long time well erdogan I think one of the maybe the only Progressive policy erdogan had was its um turkey's policy vis-a-vis refugees turkey had this open border policy and now we have four million Syrian refugees but because of opposition pressure erdogan has made a u-turn on that initially he said that we're not gonna send them back but the opposition has been pressing on that so hard that erdogan finally was forced to say yes we will send those Syrian refugees back to Syria and he's been framing Turkish incursions into Syria as the only way to create a deep and wide enough zone so turkey can send back those refugees so the opposition is repeating the same line saying that they will shake hands with the Assad regime to make sure that those refugees can be sent back but obviously that's against international law Syria is still a conflict Zone and a majority of Syrian refugees will not want to go back voluntarily and you cannot force them to so what the opposition is proposing is unrealistic and the most wisest policy from a human rights point of view and I think from a political point of view too to make sure that those people are integrated and that requires granting Turkish citizenship but that is also a very unpopular position in the current Turkish political context because Turkish nationalism is very strong and there is a strong nationalist backlash against the Syrian refugees so I don't think there is a viable solution here that's offered by either party okay thanks now we can take questions from the audience here and also online in the online audience can join the the conversation by submitting questions directly to the event webpage Facebook YouTube and on Twitter using the hashtag catofp When I Call On you please identify yourself and your affiliation and ask your question and we'll take a first question right here this gentleman here hi I'm Peter Humphrey an intelligence analyst and a former Diplomat I'm canoe in your uh magnificent new book free plug uh you say that uh turkey withdrew from an international treaty on preventing violence against women ironically known as the Istanbul convention at a time when violence against women soared I mean this is absolutely extraordinary um can you shed some light on why the AK party is absiding with wife beaters and alienating itself from civilization as a whole and within the fabric of Turkish Society is there agreement with that withdrawal no absolutely not and even AKP and even women who are AKP supporters are are very critical of that decision and I think it was a huge mistake on the part of erdogan because uh 50 of turkey's electorate is is women and he has already alienated alienated a lot of them so why did he do that to consolidate his conservative base uh because I think he looked at his allies right now he Allied himself with this strange islamist parties Turkish and Kurdish islamist parties and he is I think so desperate for votes that he's counting on the 1.5 percent uh vote that the islamist party has so it's mainly to consolidate his conservative base I think his strategy has never been to expand his his base right he understood that that was not possible so he is trying very hard to make sure that he stops the bleeding in his base and and he thought that that was a brilliant strategy but I think it's going to backfire I mean just to add on that the Istanbul convention is one of the amazing signs showing how AKP did some right things in the beginning but then destroyed itself like I mean it was built by I mean it was created by with EU turkey and and AKP was the the party that signed it and they were saying we're so proud and we're stopping violence against women with this treaty they themselves retreated that because all their early years of we are open Progressive embracing everybody narrative just dramatically changed into US versus them us good Muslims and they are the the evil liberal seculars West that's all enemy and then he retreated to his ideological camp and to in that camp there are very Orthodox Islamic groups in Turkey which don't want anything that is too modern about especially family issues so they've been campaigning on this and add-on ultimately catered to that but goodness is right even among AKP cadres there are more let's say progressive or more liberal-leaning people who actually are unhappy with this especially among the women but that also shows the direction add-on has been I mean he's been going tougher and tougher to the hardcore ideological base that he he claimed to have uh abandoned 20 years ago when he was getting into this route of the initial AKP okay let's take a question from the gentleman back there hello this is I have a PhD in history from Georgetown and currently I work as an academic advisor at the Catholic University of America but I don't represent any of these institutions my question is to the panel Turkish experts on Turkey I see them quite optimistic about the opposition you know winning and then what happens next but they were is admittedly they were also you know you know optimistic first 10 years of AKP when I look at the opposition what I see is you know their autocracies within themselves they don't they never had primaries the way we have in America like to select their presidential candidate or parliamentary member you know candidates for Parliament and the opposition leader imposed himself and it was even like upsetting within the opposition as the candidate if it was a primary probably the mayor of Istanbul or mayor of Ankara would have won and we wouldn't even be discussing right now who's going to win the elections so why should we expect these parties who are not even democracies within themselves they didn't change themselves you know even when they were complaining about the turkey's Democratic ills and so on why should they bring democracy to Turkey if they are not Democratic within themselves in their own house like they didn't tidy their house so that's my question so I am not optimistic I'm not voting because I see both sides the same oh so you haven't voted okay and but you criticize the current state of affairs in Turkey okay well there's this President Biden quote that I love he said on the campaign Trail don't compare me to the God Almighty compare me to the alternative and and I love that because I mean you're saying that you're you're very concerned about um the the state of uh things in turkey at the moment but you don't do anything to change that so you haven't thought it because you think your position is as as bad um well I disagree with that you're right I don't uh to set the record straight by the way I don't think things are going to be very Rosy after the opposition wins as I said the the problems that the country is facing are tremendous and it's going to be a difficult road ahead but I think um we're talking about a new government that is promising to put Turkish democracy back on track at least one party is making that promise but erdogan on the other hand his campaign pledges have been if you continue to talk if you continue to criticize you'll face jail time he just said that yesterday so that's why I don't agree with this notion that opposition is just as bad as Aidan sure it will be difficult to rebuild the institutions rebuild the democracy and people's faith in that but at least I think under a new government Turkish democracy will have a shot I mean I would agree with you that there is no probably political party in Turkey today who defends liberal democracy as dedicated and as principled as the Cato Institute I would say or most people you know we would agree with on these issues but uh it's a choice between what is better and what's not I mean right I mean and and I think in the opposition block for example there's Deva party see which I would sympathize with when you look at the options I mean they are speaking of free market reforms freedom for everybody freedom of speech religion every like pretty good I mean so they want the EU process back they're not the only force in their position but you know you can find voices like that ultimately you choose between as as Guru said the Alternatives I mean AKP is not a very Democratic party in itself but in earlier they did good stuff for turkey and I think everybody can appreciate that in Turkey had pretty good uh reforms under turgutozau who brought the idea of freedom to Turkey Federal speech religion and Entrepreneurship he just started speaking about this which nobody did before in the political scene I mean uh he had a great time was it a perfect no so uh I think in every society you don't switch and become a liberal democracy the next day and there's a perfect part to do that but you go towards Freedom or you go towards on freedom and and now we're choosing that as we know Turkey is a member of NATO where it's been playing a critical role especially with regard to the war in Ukraine this question comes online from Jonathan Allen what would another erdogan term mean for NATO yard one if he secures a win I think he will approve Sweden's accession and tornado and opposition too erdogan would yes while he dragged his feet on Finland too but I think that was for mostly for domestic consumption I think he will but in terms of the bigger picture obviously I mean turkey and Russia are are very close allies and in the Ukraine after the Ukraine Invasion turkey erdogan kept saying that he pursued a very balanced policy but I see his policy pulse Ukraine is more tilted towards Russia so if we continue to see that that's going to be a problem for NATO uh but in in a scenario where your position wins there will still be problems I mean I'm not saying that everything is going to be perfect but um I think I think the new government will be more committed to a more constructive relationship with Western partners I believe that uh in foreign policy erdogan has been following this line which which you can Define as eating your cake and also having it as well which vis-a-vis the West I mean he wants to go on full anti-westernism in terms of propaganda show the West as the as the enemy that conspires against turkey at the on the other hand stay in NATO and whatever benefit is coming from that take that but on the other hand also get some Russian missiles just in case to balance that and and when NATO has enlargement like Sweden make a deal whatever we get out of this I mean so very transactional in in many ways so I don't have a I don't believe addon has a plan to leave NATO but growingly turkey will look like very different from other NATO countries and how long will that be managed if everyone stays in power I think that's a very good question I don't think NATO has a blueprint to solve problems like that I would prefer to stay keep turkey as much as possible in Western institutions that will be NATO that will be uh you Council of Europe because the further turkey drifts away the harder it will be to you know restore it if there will be ever a restoration because ultimately there will be some post-ardo on future right for for some reason and at that point I think a turkey that has become fully in the club of Russia China and Central Asiatic like authoritarian regimes that will be worse than still having some institutional links and that is especially true for Council of Europe which ties turkey to the European Court of Human Rights although add-on doesn't listen to what European Court of Human Rights says still those institutional links are better than no links yeah okay let's take a question right here thank you I'm Orkin arielmas I'm with the political violence lab academic research lab affiliated with the University of California and this question is specifically for General toll although Mr Akil can add afterwards as well you mentioned that since a lot of the bureaucracy in Turkey is currently very compromised by the Arden regime the military the national companies the financial sector and even the Supreme electoral Council since many of these people's careers and livelihoods are very much tied to ardon's continued strength and you know his new term additionally many of them are very much like criminals and they would almost certainly very many of them tens of thousands of them would be undergoing prosecution if a new regime comes what makes you think that these people will allow the mechanism for a new transition in the case of a victory by the opposition and how their Western interests would wouldn't interfere very significantly with that thank you well I think the mood has changed in favor of college and that's why you're seeing all these leaks coming out of Turkish bureaucracy to college I mean even this latest tweet about Russian meddling in in Turkish domestic affairs that's linked to uh the things that that kalistarola received from from Turkish bureaucracy so I think Turkish bureaucracy is hedging its pets and it's not very untypical of broad bureaucracies operate in in personalist autocracies when they see a weak autocrat they can change sides so I think right now we are seeing that they are hedging its pets and there are several indications key among them which really surprised me was a decision by the country's constitutional Court the Constitutional Court made the decision in January to deny the pro Kurdish party State funds that would allow them to finance their election campaign and that decision has been reversed a month after despite protests from erdogan so to me that that was a really striking example of how bureaucracy might be hedging its pets and one of the key people who was hand-picked by arduan members of that member of that Court leaked that information to anti-argon press and said that he made that decision he changed his mind because with the current he didn't have enough proof so he made it known to the opposition too that he was doing what was right from a legal point of view probably to avoid legal repercussions that could come after an opposition win and another key decision made by the country's top electoral Watchdog which denied an AKP request twice in the last three weeks so that's why and also you have to look at the country's security bureaucracy as well right I can't speak to the police force but in the military too I think there is resentment too there are people who resent the ministry of defense and the stance that he took on the night of the coup uh coup attempt so I think there's a lot of Grays on there which makes me think that it's not a foregone conclusion that bureaucracy will back erdogan no matter what I agree with Karen yeah okay we have time for uh one more question and I want to take it from online uh from Peter Metzel of the Liberty Fund who asks assuming a victory by the National Alliance what changes might there be with approaches to the Kurdish question and relations with the low sound minorities Peter's a good friend so good to hear from him from Liberty Fund quickly erdogan actually in his again early years he did reforms on the Kurdish question that were unprecedented and like a lot of encouraged to speak their language and have a TV out there oh my God that was Unthinkable in Turkey before that that was and then he even came close to a peace deal with the Kurdish separatist group pkk that turkey defines as terrorists that there has been a youth incredible U-turn in that after the collapse of the peace process add-on in 2015 partly because of the civil war in Syria add-on switched back to the very hawkish position he allies himself now with turkey's hardcore nationalist party which always wanted to solve the Kurdish question simply by bombing you know as much as you can so uh so he's always with them so he's very hawkish on that he got a small Kurdish islamist party next to himself but the main Kurdish vote is with the opposition now in the opposition that Turkish Nationals as well too so this is not an easy issue for turkey but I would hope that uh uh if there's a new government by the opposition they would be certainly milder compared to what erdogan has been in the past few years uh they can initiate talks with the pkk I think which is the only way to end the the conflict and also realize some reforms but they will have to struggle within themselves with the Nationals in their own ranks and if I could just add one more thing I think it's going to be a difficult thing to navigate for the new government because of what Mustafa just mentioned that strength of nationalists current in in the country that cuts across party lines but I think the new president will be forced to address the Kurdish question mainly because the alliance that he leads at the moment will not capture a majority in the parliament uh in the next Parliament so that will mean the pro Kurdish party it's part of an alliance they will hold a significant number of seats in the new Parliament so the new uh the president will need to Ally himself with the Kurds in the parliament to be able to realize all the pledges that he's made on the campaign Trail otherwise he can't pass anything in the parliament so that's why I think the Kurds will play a key role in that new Parliament which will force the the new president to address the Kurdish question but I don't expect it to happen overnight it's going to be a difficult difficult road ahead well thanks very much I'm afraid that we've run out of time we're all going to be watching the elections this weekend and I want to thank all of you for coming and uh for our audience online for joining us as well and especially thank Grinnell and Mustafa for joining us and speaking with us today thanks very much thank you and please join us in the foyer for a lunch

Channel: The Cato Institute

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Id: KgT0F_vzUKA

Length: 59min 55sec (3595 seconds)

Published: Sat May 13 2023