Tsai Ing-Wen's strategic gamble on US-Taiwan ties | Insight | Full Episode

in august this year u.s president donald trump approved a multi-billion dollar arm sale to taiwan the biggest since the start of his presidency almost three years ago but china is furious beijing would always express anger and discontent and try to retaliate whenever it sees signs of arms sales or engagement china warned the us of serious consequences threatened to impose sanctions against companies involved in the sale and demanded a reversal of the us approval taiwan is always a card for the united states to play vista with china what will be the impact of the u.s arms sale on cross-trade relations will tensions escalate in the run-up to taiwan's elections in january 2020 and will tie in one's defiant stance against china get a favorable knot from voters and boost her re-election bid [Music] is [Music] it's about 50 times bigger than singapore the 14 000 square mile island with a population of around 23.6 million is located 100 miles east of the people's republic of china its political status is ambiguous and it is not officially recognized by its most important supporter the us yet taiwan is america's 11th largest trading partner and a vital link in silicon valley supply chain the united states taiwan is an important partner in the asia pacific as the united states draw down u.s forces in the middle east winding down their involvement in afghanistan in iraq and now more recently seen in syria the shift of u.s military forces is going to asia pacific without support of the u.s the mainstream international community would not speak for taiwan so the u.s has played a leading role in mobilizing some important countries to support taiwan's meaningful participation in the international community the americans has a long tradition of supporting democratic allies and now with a more overt ideological battle that's being waged between democracies and authoritarian regimes it can only but increase the value of taiwan as a democracy and as a participant in efforts to push back against authoritarian encroachment in april 2019 in a massive show of support to taiwan the trump administration started rolling out a series of approvals for multi-billion dollar sales of weapons to the island initially a 500 million dollar f-16 training and parts package was approved in july there was yet another endorsement of a 2.2 billion dollar sale of hardware including 108 m1a2 abrams tanks and 250 stinger service to air missiles in august 2019 these were followed by an approval of an 8 billion dollar sale of 66 f-16v fighter jets the single largest from the us to taiwan in many years [Music] [Applause] it's eight billion dollars it's a lot of money it's a lot of jobs it's a great aircraft and we really believe or we perhaps wouldn't have done it they're going to use it very responsibly it increases the morale of the taiwan military it comes with training it comes with maintenance support it comes with all of the logistics support that make it not just a a weapon but a capability right the ability to use it the sale marks a major advancement for the island's aging defense capabilities but china vehemently protested the sale as regards taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory in retaliation china stepped up the pace of its military drills close to taiwan straits while taiwan responded with its own drills by deploying its most advanced fighter jets because [Music] foreign there will always be symbolism attached to any arms sales to taiwan greatest danger for regional stability would exist if beijing were to convince itself that united states is no longer willing to assist taiwan that it could escalate in the taiwan strait perhaps even launch military operations against taiwan and the united states with the expectation that united states would not become involved it's a deterrent signal to beijing that the u.s stands behind taiwan stands behind their continued survival and of course it raises questions in beijing's mind about u.s intervention in the event of a conflict the largest physical representation of u.s commitment exists in the form of the american institute in taiwan on june 11 2018 after nine years of construction the united states formally opened the new 250 million dollar building housing more than 400 american diplomats and staff it is the de facto u.s embassy in taiwan the new building of american institute in taiwan is a simple it's a picture a scenery that shows american commitment to taiwan and and and in some way that can boost the confidence of taiwan people that the united states is here to stay as we dedicate this building we have an obligation to work with one another to defend our value and protect our joint interests as long as we stand together nothing can come between us china did not lose an opportunity to state its disapproval on the day of the inauguration ceremony attended by president thai england and former president ma india china reiterated that the u.s by sending officials to taiwan under whatever pretext severely violates the one china principle interferes in china's internal affairs and exerts negative impacts on china-u.s relations the new building obviously is symbolic but i mean its real importance is its function it's it's there to enable the united states to maintain its presence um and maintain a robust unofficial relationship i mean you have to remember the us is still a pacific power right the us has a pacific presence and the relationship with taiwan just like the relationship with japan and south korea and southeast asian states and singapore it's the same and so he carefully walks a fine line between not angering the chinese government because of the formal obligations and formal recognition with beijing but it also doesn't want to abandon a long-standing partner in the asia pacific u.s taiwan relations go back to when the republic of china was in mainland china and was an ally of the united states during world war ii against the japanese as we know the guamindang lost the civil war in 1949 they fled to taiwan and they established their roc government here in taiwan and that relationship continued with the americans so taipei was the for a number of years the official government of all of china now in 1979 the u.s government decided to switch diplomatic relations and establish relations with the people's republic of china whereupon u.s congress proposed the taiwan relations act the taiwan relations act or tra is hailed as the cornerstone of u.s taiwan relations forty years ago on april 10 1979 the tra was established by the carter administration in response to a shift in diplomatic recognition of the nation of china from the republic of china in taiwan to the people's republic of china in beijing the law itself with a very creative and ambiguous language the law also gave the administration in washington uh such a room to expand the unofficial relations or to squeeze the unofficial relations based on american interests but so far in the past 40 years it had worked well it helped protect taiwan from being incorporated into the people's republic the tra acknowledges without recognizing beijing's claim to taiwan it views any attempt by china to coerce the island into unification as a grave threat to american security it also authorizes the sale of weapons of a defensive nature to taiwan while most of these points have held steady from carter to trump the sale of military equipment slowed after a deal in 1992. the decision of arms sales itself is political decision it's not necessarily pure military decisions some people think hey maybe the u.s is using taiwan as a partnership or as a soldier to to combat mainland china if necessary we don't think so it's also very important for the u.s government to reiterate that it is not using taiwan as a partnership and it is helping taiwan under president trump we've also seen much more intimate and proactive engagement on the part of the state department on the part of other american agencies with taiwan on democracy promotion non-media literacy combating disinformation combating cyber warfare and this is all part of a of a nascent emerging strategy [Music] um [Music] uh so that creates an incentive for both the us and taiwan to ensure that taiwan has the means to defend itself so not only is it the law that the u.s not only provides taiwan's with those arms of a defensive nature but also maintains its own capability to preserve taiwan's independent nature so that's the fundamental interest [Music] the armed sale may be consistent with the history of u.s support for taiwan's defense but it could be more than meets the eye in the backdrop of an ongoing u.s china trade war some experts question why the trump administration has chosen to approve the sale now could this be part of america's indo-pacific strategy aimed at curbing beijing's growing clouds in the south china sea and the indian ocean or is the threat to taiwan from china imminent they go around taiwan every month almost every month they try to scale taiwanese they try to influence our economic performance they try to make taiwanese people fear them and become part of them be a friend don't bully it is great to be here in new york and taiwan is a beacon of democracy in the english disease we have walked a long path from authoritarianism to free and open democracy and that path was not an easy the taiwan relations act enacted in 1979 underpins the unofficial relationship between taiwan and the us it enshrines america's commitment to assist taiwan with its defense against chinese aggression our government will resolutely defend our freedom democracy and way of life over the past three years we have worked day in and day out with three goals in mind to keep taiwan safe transformed our economy and engaged with the world thai england has leveraged taiwan's unique bilateral relationship with washington to bolster the island's defense capabilities between june and august 2019 the trump administration approved multi-dollar arms deals to provide taiwan with weapons of a defensive character the us interest is in a peaceful resolution of the crosstraits issue without any natural action by either side they can't launch an attack against china one of the key components in the taiwan relations act is that the united states government commits to providing all capabilities necessary for taiwan to protect itself no more no less they do not these are not capabilities that are meant for taiwan to say hypothetically attack the mainland uh that that's out of the question all together the weapons package from the us includes 198 abrams tanks 250 stinger surface-to-air missiles and 66 f-16 american viper fighter jets but what advanced capabilities can these weapon systems provide the taiwan military their radar capabilities are significantly enhanced their ability to engage targets much greater they can see targets further away they can track more targets than than previous versions were able to and they're able to engage them in a much more accurate manner than before traditionally most combat aircraft were fairly reliant on ground-based radar systems to help track and and vector them into in into the attack the f-16s that we're talking about um these are these are radar systems which which in a sense don't really rely on on those ground systems any longer this is the single largest arm sale to taiwan since former president george w bush sold 150 f-16 jet fighters to taipei in 1992 according to tainan legislator and chairman of the national defense committee wang ting yu the trump administration has moved faster on arms sale while previous governments had taken longer we send our requests around march so now we we got a deal so it's fast it's much faster than we have before when you ask all the taiwanese they always say china is the number one we don't the country we don't like because they threaten us all the time spread our kids threats our future when we have good preparation conflict will happen if we weaken our national defense ability something bad will happen it's an objectively observable fact that the trump administration is is moving faster on arms sales they're also more decisive if you look at the obama administration on foreign policy issues they were very deliberative the trump administration is quite different when a decision is made it can be very quickly executed and decisions are made quickly in this administration and i think this is true across a lot of different issue sets not just taiwan you could regard this as as containment or as a firewall against the pla navy for example expanding in the region and possibly destabilizing other countries a sovereign taiwan or de facto sovereign taiwan certainly is reassuring to the japanese government we don't know how japan would react if one day taiwan became part of the people's republic of china and particularly if the people's liberation army were to occupy taiwan some people have said that that would spark a major re-militarization on the part of tokyo so that makes a sovereign taiwan a crucial part in that in that balance of power in the region but china possesses roughly 1 500 modern fighters while taiwan possesses around 400 fighters the american viper jets are a big boost to taiwan's defenses yet compared to china's might the latest 8 billion f-16b fighter acquisition is no game changer analysts say it may do little to alter the overall balance of power across the taiwan strait as these are not a challenge to baiting's land sea and air forces these are definitely not f-35s the best analogy i can think of in f-35 is that of an american football quarterback the f-35 can function as though it's a quarterback coordinating a number of different platforms and capabilities into a single coordinated attack scenario the f-16s are nowhere close to that the f-35s also have some degree of stealth capability which helps to reduce their radar signatures and gives them a certain degree of survivability therefore these f-16s are nothing nothing in that category they do represent a fairly significant leap in the capabilities that the taiwanese air force currently possesses the arms sale comes as relations between the united states and china are already being tested by trade war and the decoupling of technology supply chains is the deal then an indirect message from washington to china does it show the trump administration's willingness to confront beijing at a time when the u.s china relations are at an all-time low on account of the trade war [Music] well trump tried to sell some out-of-date f-16 with f-35 price to taiwan i view that is a propaganda to do two things one is to help president thai the current president to win the election and another is trying to use it as a leverage to deal with china in trade talks i question the linkage between trade and and and other um and other ongoing issues between the u.s and china you can't accuse the administration of having foreign policy chaos on the one hand and at the same time harbor a conspiracy theory that they somehow are linking all of these issues into a grand strategy that it happened in the context of an ongoing u.s china trade war is probably just unfortunate timing if the united states were trying to use this arms sales as a way to stick it to the chinese so to speak the indicator for that would have been much more uh visible so swapping upgrades to f-16 fighter jets to f-35 the latest and the most highly priced technology that the us has developed i think that would be seen as surprising and really making a statement to china about its displeasure with china's rise the ongoing trade war right but i think we've seen more or less with this arm sales every side sticking to script it's something that from a performer from a from a grand strategic perspective makes absolute sense your trade uh relationship may very well be the the main interest to be secured and you will use any number of instruments before you to help you to secure them plausibly arm sales to taiwan fits as one of those instruments that helps you to increase your leverage over your trade adversary i have had several interactions with people in washington who are intimately involved in the processes of releasing weapons to taiwan i've yet to meet this a single individual whose intention it is to anger beijing with armed sales to taiwan and united states as a security guarantor is is assisting its allies and taiwan is certainly one of them for the u.s armed sales and defense trade are key tools of foreign policy the trump administration rolled out a new buy american plan in 2018 that had relaxed restrictions on sales while encouraging u.s officials to take a bigger role in increasing business for the us weapons industry the u.s defense security cooperation agency has announced a total foreign arms sale of 55.4 billion dollars for fiscal year 2019 an indication that america's position in the global arms trade remains strong mr trump loves to make a deal or make america great again in monetary terms so it's a dollar and cents um so big item sales with a larger package became possible taiwan has requested to purchase main battle tanks the m1 tanks the decision was not possible in the past 20 years and finally the trump administration gave in green light even as china renews its call for cross-straits reunification under one country two systems taiwan is standing firm [Music] president xi jinping has identified reunification as fundamental to becoming a modern socialist power and for ushering in a new era for china but what stops china from taking taiwan by force of course mainland china can use force against taiwan to eliminate those in support of time independence but what will be the cost [Music] in june 2019 the u.s department of defense released the indo-pacific strategy reports leaders to put your countries first it stressed the need for all regional allies and partners to uphold a rules-based order ensuring peace and prosperity for all i call it the indo-pacific dream if it's going to be realized we must ensure that all play by the rules which they do not right now the united states will no longer turn a blind eye to violations cheating or economic aggression those days are over the indo-pacific region as defined by the us is one that recognizes the interconnectedness of economics governance and security that shaped the region's competitive landscape according to the report the region includes the world's largest economies the united states china and japan and six of the world's fastest growing economies india cambodia maos burma nepal and the philippines it accounts for 60 percent of the global gdp but what is the significance of the term indo-pacific while we're seeing a rebalancing or a pivot once again to asia on the part of the united states that is now called the indo-pacific strategy more and more especially since 2016 taiwan has become a component of that strategy the united states has always been and will always remain a pacific power and so to have the united states step up its increasing engagement interest with political allies as part of us strategy to shift its focus to an area of emerging importance to u.s national security interests we will no longer tolerate the audacious theft of intellectual property we will confront the destructive practices of forcing businesses to surrender their technology to the state and forcing them into joint ventures in exchange for market access analysts argue that trump's indo-pacific strategy is driven by the us desire to counter what it sees as china's growing clout in the region this is evident in china's military buildup on the artificial islands in the south china sea the indo-pacific dream could be an attempt to re-establish a rules-based international order as opposed to a china-led regional order but is this part of an overall u.s policy to contain the rise of china in the region it's not just about all capital and trade flows moving to china and then from china being redistributed to the region it's about enabling connectivity and trade and commerce between players within the region and between the region and outside countries and there's a fear that china is trying to exclude other economic and security powers from the region and that's what they're pushing back against that's not containment i mean and that's that's that's a real misnomer and it's unfortunately it's part of a narrative that's out there and it's not what the us is pursuing taiwan is strategically important to both the united states and an increasingly assertive china [Music] the island's location economy and security are all essential to american interests analysts to note that china would become a pacific power if taiwan were to become part of china it would then control some of the world's most cutting-edge technologies taiwan is an integrated economy uh it's a it's a technology hub for the region it's a major foreign direct investor in in southeast asia in some cases larger than the u.s and larger than in china in some areas so i think it's it's a critical part of the fabric of the region so that alone makes it important due to geography taiwan is also one of the key links in what is known as the first island chain that separates china from the the west pacific ocean for american geopolitical interests having a democratic ally as part of that island chain is is quite crucial uh to its ambitions for for the region as well it's both geostrategically important because of its location it's economically important because of its open economy and its free flow of trade and information and technology and expertise and people as tensions continue to rise in the taiwan strait it is imperative that the island enhances its defence readiness china for its part has been preparing the groundwork for future invasion of what it considers a rogue province according to a pentagon report president xi jinping has been investing heavily in the people's liberation army and in multi-domain advanced military capabilities [Music] so can china take over taiwan by force of course mainland china can use force against taiwan to eliminate those in support of time independence but what would be the cost it's not a cost-effective measure also we have to think you know after war between mainland china and taiwan you know taiwan will be destroyed or at least some of the important political and military centers of taiwan will be destroyed china were to take taiwan by force i think it would be destabilizing for the region i think it would be harmful to to china's own interests i think it would cause capital flight i think it would cause a lack of confidence in china and china's leadership that would lead to to you know a really dramatic decoupling between china and the world china has also been actively engaged in efforts to isolate taiwan by poaching its diplomatic allies since president thai england took office in 2016 taiwan has lost seven allies bringing the total number down to 15. no disrespect to small islands in the pacific but their ability to sway beijing or to make a difference globally is extraordinarily limited whereas countries like australia germany european union india singapore canada united states japan south korea these are all significant countries that can if they assess that it is in their interest for taiwan to remain sovereign uh have the ability to shape the environment in favor of of taiwan not because they're being altruistic but because it's in their own national interest for taiwan to remain independent year and your support for resolution backing our international participation has made you quite popular in taiwan there is going to be some backlash uh for people in taiwan just recently during the national day address tying when stated very publicly and i think for the first time a consistent message which is that the notion of one country two systems is dead on arrival right that's a non-starter for anybody in taiwan and whether you were light blue shallow green right the majority of taiwan consensus is now emerging around coalescing around the view that we cannot accept that political system while beijing officially seeks peaceful reunification it has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the self-ruled island and taiwan has remained firm about safeguarding democracy and freedom can president thai's defiance counter chinese aggression or will it backfire oh [Music] sharply disagree on the island status presidency's speech in january 2019 invoking the one china principle hit a raw nerve in taiwan the idea of one china is contentious as it is interpreted differently by leaders on either side of the taiwan straits the ccp has staked its legitimacy on uh rejuvenating china uh rectifying the so-called century of humiliation uh and regaining territory that he claims was stolen it by by the japanese and western imperial forces according to beijing taiwan is bound by the 1992 consensus agreed between the chinese communist party and the guam dang or kmt political party then ruling taiwan it states that there is only one china but both beijing and taipei have different interpretations of the term the ruling chinese communist party uses the term to indicate that both the mainland and taiwan belong to one china and will ultimately unify under the one country two systems framework their counterparts in taiwan hold different views during the kmt years it is a kmt position as well as a party platform right it sees the formalized independence of taiwan as a non-starter and so there is this vision again of unification and that's the common denominator it has with the chinese communist party but its vision of what that one china would look like is the kmt's version of china so a free democratic china operating under the constitution that's currently supplanted on the free regions within this china chin tends to look at the disagreement part that hey we disagree on the definition one china so we don't have any mutual commonly acceptable grounds for future dialogue so not only china has withdrawn from the past position of the previous kmt government but xi jinping also withdrew from his position engaging taiwan peacefully a conservative from the chinese unification promotion party chang anglo believes that joining mainland china will bring happiness to taiwanese he upholds the one country two systems principle [Music] would be [Music] is confident that it won't be long before taiwan is unified with the mainland what's this don't worry to me or wendy though [Music] a distinctly taiwanese identity has been emerging mostly amongst the youngsters a growing number of people in taiwan feel that they deserve the right to continue an independent existence and more than 75 percent of the island's population according to a study see themselves as distinctly taiwanese foreign one of the largest protest movements in hong kong's history has fueled more anti-baiting sentiment in taiwan the protests serve as a warning for taiwan as it considers the future of relations with mainland china they demonstrate that reunification may be fought with huge political risks there is also growing support in taiwan for the hong kong protests foreign hong kong is a sad case because hong kong has been handed over back to mainland china in the 1990s so hong kong has been ruled under the people's republic but in the case of taiwan people's republic china has never ruled taiwan for even a day and we have our own governments our military our democracy anybody who raises the issue that going forward relations with china will only resume under the context of one country two systems in taiwan is going to be a political suicide the reason why we have very tenuous relationship in the taiwan strait today is not because of cyanuran it is because of decisions that xi jinping has made hong kong only reaffirms uh why it is in in the interests of the taiwanese to maintain their way of life knowing full well that integration with china even in the best of terms would likely in the long term result in a slow erosion of their freedoms and liberties and and ability to express themselves as as normal human beings issues of taiwanese identity and independence are taking center stage in the run-up to presidential elections in january 2020 since the start of the movement in hong kong president thai england has expressed support that has helped boost her approval rating in taiwan some people think you know maybe we should choose thai england because she stands tough and she can speak for us and she won't count out to beijing which i think may not be so true but i think this kind of selling this sense of urgency sense of losing statehood to taiwan people has helped change gain a lot of advantage over her competitor hangout the kaohsiung city mayor that's why nowadays we have seen a salient leading as taiwan heads for the polls in january 2020 the battleground is set for the grand face-off between dpp's thai england and kmt's han ko with fewer than 100 days left before the elections thai holds a solid lead in most polls over her opponent under tai engun a multi-million dollar arms deal places the u.s taiwan relations at their best while crosstalk relations are worsening how these will play out in the elections remains to be seen will tying one's defiance boost her re-election bid or is it too close to call it will very much be an election based on whether taiwanese want to fight for their values or they want to give the kmt another chance in the hopes that perhaps this time around everybody would suddenly become quite rich because we're having better relations with china i find that hard to believe the poaching of diplomatic allies is not something that she engineered or wanted to to create right so these events that are external to size direct control has indeed contributed to her surge in popularity and again the surge in popularity is reflective of the emerging and surfacing consensus within the island that we know what we don't want and we don't want to be pressured or coerced excessively it's going to be one that's going to help her and her party secure potential victory in 2020. [Music] so [Music] you

Channel: CNA

Views: 1,297,007

Keywords: cna, channel newsasia, insight, cna insight, taiwan, tsai ing wen, us taiwan, us taiwan arms deal, us taiwan relationship, taiwan china

Id: h97kHfPnHZk

Length: 46min 21sec (2781 seconds)

Published: Tue Nov 12 2019