Today My Theory Was Proven Correct | Joe Scott TMI

hey everybody today was kind of a big day on my channel or for me anyway and I wanted to talk about that a little bit I'm doing it here in my normal spot with my setup and everything because I need to show you something on my computer to really illustrate the whole point so I'm just kind of doing this through OBS also if I'm talking really quietly it's cuz my wife is asleep and I should really look into soundproofing this room or something or putting a soundproof door in here or something I don't know it would open up a lot more opportunity to record but that's okay so this this might be a bit of an ASMR video we'll see No so yeah today was a big day because I'm going to show you to uh the channel hit three hundred and forty thousand subscribers now anytime the channel hits an increment of ten or whatever it's it's a need you know it's a time to celebrate Goucher you know reached new it's a little milestone you know it's a little milestone along the way 340 though is a very specific number and it's a big deal for me because I validates a theory that I have about my channel growth that I wanted to explain with you guys so people who have followed me in my various places for a while have probably heard this before because this isn't like some kind of secret or anything I've talked about this before and I want to I want to emphasize before I get into this in no way is this meant to be bragging I always feel gross whenever I talk about the growth of my channel it's really more of just an astonishment on my part and you know how when you predict something and then that thing comes true you're just kind of like wow I actually called that well I actually called this and I wanted to kind of go through how I came up with this and I don't know if this applies to other channels or not but anyway that is that is the premise here so that's what I'm going to talk about and illustrate it like I said I'm going to show you I'm gonna pull up socialblade here in a second and show you the numbers basically let me let me start with this so in January this year I at the beginning this year I officially went full-time on this channel the background is that I had worked for twelve years at a major newspaper it was I guess a good job as jobs go but it was not very fulfilling there was a lot of BS attached to it and it definitely did not leave me time to do the things that I really care about the things that really scratch my itch is creatively especially when it comes to filmmaking writing and that kind of thing so in 2017 I got a job I change from that job to kind of go work at a startup very small company I was managing YouTube channels and toward the end of last year the writing was kind of on the wall with that company the guy who runs it was wanting to kind of move things in a different direction he needed a little bit more stability in his own life so he was kind of looking more for like a full-time position at another place and he was going to kind of if not completely dissolved the company that I was working with him with on who whatever he was gonna change it into a completely different thing anyway so at that moment when I was considering okay maybe I should just go full-time on the channel maybe that's something that can actually support me it was barely supporting me and if I was gonna do this I really needed to make sure I understood exactly where things were going and make sure that later on it was it was a huge gamble because at that particular moment I couldn't really afford to do it especially not if I was gonna be legal and paying my taxes and stuff like that where I'm going with that is I spent weeks analyzing my channel and the growth of my channel every possible way you can imagine I mean I would I remember specifically out walking the dogs and just like trying to crank through numbers in my head and trying to figure out like because it seems so I mean it was growing well but you know it wasn't just a matter of hey I'd like to have X many subscribers it was a matter of I'm gonna need this much on this channel in order to be able to support myself you know so it was it was a scary time and it was a big huge decision and when I made that decision I was very much betting on the channel and banking on the channel to do something so anyway after after analyzing those numbers every which way I could possibly think of the one that I kind of settled on was and I'm sure there's a better term for this maybe been someone's could help me out with ax he's a data guy but I was calling it the exponential I was looking at exponentially basically I started looking at how many times my channel or how long it took for my channel to double in subscribers and and what the rate of that was throughout the life of the channel now I got started kind of getting serious about this in terms of deciding I was going to put out a video every single week and sticking to that and being consistent back in the fall of 2014 and when I looked back over when I looked back over that period I was able to well make an assumption as to what was going to happen this year in the assumption that I came up with was 340 thousand now I want to show you how I did that so what's back let me switch over here all right so this is social blade for anybody who is not familiar with social blade it's a it's a stats YouTube stats website anyway but what we're looking at here is this one right here so you got Daly subs total subscribers this is like the only place I can think of we can find cumulative subscriber numbers so this is this is where I'm going to right here Blair boo boo I'm having trouble talking tonight so this only goes back to January actually goes back to November of 2015 so it doesn't actually go all the way back to the beginning of 2015 but if you look right here there you go so January 1st 2016 I had one point seven nine thousand subscribers just for this I went into the YouTube statistics the analytics to see where I started in 2015 so I had 553 subscribers at the beginning of 2015 so between in 2015 I went from 553 to 1.7 9,000 so what does that mean exponentially so 500 let's just round it down to 500 double once is a thousand double twice is 2,000 I didn't quite get to 2,000 so it doubled once and then almost made it to two not quite but almost made it to two and actually the effect fact around the 553 that would be mmm no I didn't quite get there sorry I started thinking shouldn't ever do that okay so we start 2016 at one point seven nine thousand let's just round it to one point eight go to January 2017 okay January 1st 2017 nineteen point one four thousand so I went from one point seven nine thousand to nineteen thousand nineteen point one four okay so let's look at it exponentially from there it went from one point seven nine let's just go one point eight just to be easy one point eight twice is what two point six no three point six so that's one doubling three point six and then like seven point two I believe after that yeah double that and you got fourteen point four so now it is doubled three times plus a little bit and you get to the 19 so in 2017 it doubled three times you with me okay so in 2018 by the way I'm sure some of you guys are our math geniuses and know the actual terms for all this you're probably screaming at me in the comments I'm at it okay so yeah I ended 2018 with 85,000 so began 2018 wait yeah sorry I began 2017 17000 seventeen point nine thousand let's just say seventeen thousand and I ended it with eighty five thousand so again seventeen thousand double wants is thirty-four seventeenth out or thirty-four doubles to 168 yeah 68 and then a little bit and you get to 85 so that doubled twice and then a little bit year before doubled three times in a little bit that year a double twice in a little bit so long story short hello every year leading up to this one when I was making this decision when I was looking at the numbers I was trying to factor in how many times it doubled in each time it doubled either twice or close to twice to three times ish it was in that area so I just made the assumption that it would do it again this year so I started 2018 at eighty-five thousand 85 twice is 170 170 twice is 340 so that's how I came up with 340 and I I was I thought let's just let's just assume it only happens twice and they'll get to 340 and at the beginning this year I just when I looked at that number I was like there's no way there's no possible way this channel is gonna actually get 340 s just know that's that was just way too high but I made that prediction and I felt like it was safe enough that even if I didn't quite get there I would have enough subscribers and enough views and enough revenue down the line to be able to sustain myself doing this I knew it would be a little bit of a dip and it was but I got through and here we are and I expect I mean it's it's the 10th of December we get 21 more days and the channel is doing pretty well right now actually you know if we want to look up here I had that giant spike earlier this month as you can see I was getting I got twelve thousand four hundred subscribers in that one day on the 18th it's gotten down more into the five six hundred a day range which is still pretty friggin great I will take it right now we're kind of it'll it'll slope off a little bit more so we're in the 400 to 500 a day range but if we managed to stay in that particular range I think it's safe to say that I could get another 10,000 by the end of the month which would make it 350 so I'm expecting at this point to end at 350 and I actually had some patreon people let me put it back on the main camera here I actually kind of did a a bet with my patreon people to see who who could get closest to where I'll end up I actually guessed 350 and unless things just completely tanked or something takes off again I think that's still a reasonable thing to assume but looking forward this is when things get really crazy so again I feel very validated that my theory seems to have worked out for this year but if that extends forward again we're starting to talk about some ridiculous numbers we're looking at well if I'm at 350 and that doubles once that's seven hundred thousand and that doubles again that's 1.4 million so I'm not placing any bets just yet if you guys want to take a guess down in the comments as to where you think the channel will be a year from today although the air isn't over yet obviously but I'm kind of getting behind myself if you want to make some bets if you think that this trend will continue I personally think it will not quite double twice in the next year I would be perfectly happy with a doubling once seven hundred thousand is nothing to sneeze at but I I get people all the time that say that they think I'm gonna get to a million in a year or something like that that would be great I'm not holding my breath but anyway if this trend continues that's where things will wind up and I'm kind of just curious what you guys think if you think that that's going to continue if you think I've just been lucky this here getting that and sometimes I wonder if maybe the fact that I kind of set that as a goal in my head had something to do with it I'm not getting into the secret type or anything but like you know you know maybe subconsciously it kind of who knows you know could have affected the way I ran the channel I think also just the fact that I've been able to do it full time this year makes a huge difference I've been able to focus more on it I've been able to pull other people in build a team all of that builds quality it builds consistency and helps build the channel so with that in mind maybe as I'm able to keep growing it and bringing more people in that would actually facilitate the faster growth necessary to make it actually double twice again next year but who knows anyway this has just been an interesting very validating thing that happened today and I was excited about it and yeah there's someone to share it with you guys and hear your thoughts so enough of that I will cut this off for now this has been the TMI channel Jos got TMI not the regular answers of Jo channel so that's my spiel I always say it at the end though but anyway thanks you guys and back for more tomorrow ish all right y'all take care

Channel: Joe Scott - TMI

Views: 37,785

Rating: 4.8980651 out of 5

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Id: sBHCNf7lu1A

Length: 14min 28sec (868 seconds)

Published: Mon Dec 10 2018