Thursday 26th March

well this photograph was taken on a sidewalk in New York City yesterday and I'm glad to see the message is getting out keep distance to preserve our existence so that was a nice to see a good health education message getting out there in New York welcome it is Thursday it is the 26th of March now I'm just going to start off with three really common questions I'm getting a bit of a Q&A so the first one I get asked this repeatedly can insects and mosquitoes spread the virus and the answer to that question is no the epidemiologists believe that is not happening because what actually happens with mosquitoes is they'll bite you and drink some blood and then that blood still on the mosquitos mouth part will go in infect the next person so it's kind of a blood to blood spread with mosquitoes and the epidemiologists say there's no evidence for this happening at all and they believe it doesn't happen and I agree with that completely so it's looking like it's not spread by insects now having said that there can be very small amounts of virus in the blood but there's no evidence at all of spread so that is good news on that part now the next question is is this virus a rapid mutator now this sounds like a bit of an academic scientific question but it's actually not because if the virus is mutating that means the virus is changing so for example influenza virus particularly influenza a changes every year to some extent and that's why we need a new flu vaccine every year but the good news with this covered 19 virus is it's looking like it's a slow mutate oh so it's good so that means when you've had the virus like that your body will produce this immune protein to it it will kill the virus so that's good then you get rid of the virus so that means if they get the virus comes along again he's still going to have these antibodies that are going to be able to kill it so that means we expect that people will not be reinfected this is the evidence that is now emerging it's looking improbable that people are going to be reinfected with this virus so far because it seems like it doesn't mutate quickly now the question is how long is this immune protein this antibody going to stay in the blood to protect us against any potential new viral infection and again the answer to that isn't known I would be amazed if it's less than a year and I would suspect it's probably going to be years two decades probably even for life so that's good because of the virus doesn't mutate the virus doesn't change then these immune proteins that have already made will recognize it and the other really good news with this virus being a slow mutator is that when we make a vaccine that mimics the antigen that mimics the virus causes the body to produce this immune protein then what we're hoping is if the virus is the same all over the world one vaccine should be enough so we can all develop these protective antibodies so one vaccine for the world should be enough which is remarkably good news and that will basically end this pandemic when that happens now the third question before we go on to the news does drinking water regularly prevent infection now the idea here is that you drink water regularly and this washes the viruses down into your stomach where they're killed with hydrochloric acid and pepsin digestive enzymes well the answer to that question is definitely no drinking water regularly while it's a good idea will not prevent you getting infected with the virus because the virus goes into the lungs so a couple points of good news there in one myth that we've disposed of now going on to things today Thursday the 26th of March that's the number of cases altogether that's the number of deaths that's the number of recovered now this is from the world meter site which have looked at today and that is saying that of these cases that many are still active so this means that the epidemic the pandemic is accelerating because there's a lot of active cases people actually ill at the moment now this world meter website is saying that most of these cases are mild and serious or critical is only 4.4 percent now I won't pretend that is not completely inconsistent with other data we're going to be looking at today so quite where they've got that wrong I don't know but the most I got it from somewhere sensible it is it is a well-recognized website and if it's the case if they're looking at larger numbers and getting these kind of figures that's remarkably encouraging but my understanding is it still about 80% get a mild condition about 12% are quite poorly and about 4 to 5% are are critical that's still my understanding but if this is true it's remarkably good news now the World Health Organization are saying more lives will be lost that they're quite clear about that but they do say it's determined by actions we take now both the social distancing the shutting down that we're seeing all around the world and I believe about 500 million others around the world are now shut down or locked down half a billion people around the world working together to prevent the spread of this pandemic it needs to be more but it's it's already somewhat encouraging but as well as this top-down approach the World Health Organization continuously reminders that we need more precise and targeted measure and this this involves testing the individual cases so remember we hadn't raised enough to me here we need this top-down measure puts a flat on the curve this is the social distancing but we also need to pick away at it from the bottom as we pick out the individual cases to rid the world of this great burden of the pandemic that we are now suffering from and that means we need untold millions of tests now I've actually bought quite a few pharmaceuticals from India manufacturers in the past they're very good as long as you get it from the right manufacturer of course and I think the Indians are going to start mass producing a test that's going to be quite cheap so I'm looking forward to that and hopefully they'll be kind enough to share it with the with the world to reasonable costs so the hope is that within a few weeks everyone will to test at home to see if they've had the disease's here they've got the antibody anyway so everyone testing at home will be a major step forward probably worried about a test for the presence of the antigen at home the virus but we should bear to test for the presence of the antibody the immune protein that will tell us if we'll have it and that will give us vital information and lead us forward into all sorts of things that we we need to know like who can go into society and recirculate because they're not spreading it because they're immune and it will also tell us what the death rates are which were desperate to know about and it will also mean once we test the antigen we can quarantine the contacts as well as isolating the people who have individually the World Health Organization's say our governments need to refocus of all government so the whole attention of the world has to go into combating this virus this is our number-one crisis at the moment and the World Health Organization is saying countries with locators need to take the same top-down actions now many countries including mine with huge numbers of cases now were late to the party the World Health Organization is saint of all the countries with fewer numbers now learn from the mistakes of the United Kingdom learn from the mistakes of the United States learn from the mistakes of Italy and implement the measures that are required now physical distancing does not mean social distancing that's quite a powerful statement really so that's good to know that we still need to be in great contact with people via telephone through glass windows at a distance it's incumbent on every individual in this whole wide world at the moment to make sure there's no people around you that are socially isolated while they are physically isolated and physically instanced make everyone feel an inclusive part of a loving community that's the challenge everyone faces at the moment and the World Health Organization's say the most powerful medicine is hope and okay it's a bit bit rhetorical but it's true that this pandemic will pass there will be a vaccine herd immunity will develop and things will bounce back we just have to minimize the number of us that suffer and die in the meantime but we will get through this it's gonna take some time it's gonna be phenomenally expensive in terms of money and lifestyle but we will get through this and we will bounce back Vladimir Putin president valid Vladimir has declared a one-week holiday in Russia talked people to be at home so that's kind of his version of a lockdown measure I guess the number of cases in Russia are unclear certainly to me but I think the problem in Russia is bigger than bigger than it's probably recognized at the moment it's silly of course carries on with many tragic cases now I've got an email here that I've got from Italy I'm just gonna kind of put it on you can you can see it there is a lot of discussion about Italy but people talk about the whole country so yes the numbers look bad though there is a slight statistical reduction in the infection rates and this is true the number of new cases in Italy in terms of percentage has now gone down for the last four days as their lockdown measures start to work these measures are working they will work but if you look at the regions of Italy and set aside northern regions for the moment central and southern Italy have been benefited enormously from the lessons from the north and the lockdown is having real effect so there was such a lot lot of community spread in the north allowing a lot of spread and before it spread rapidly to the south of Italy the WHA spread to the south of Italy but before I became so community-based transmission with such large numbers in the south they did the shutting down and that is prevented the pandemic having equivalent numbers in the south of Italy to the north of Italy there has not been the explosion of numbers that we might might have happened if it were not for the testing enforcing quarantine and lockdown so great news what this means is the south of Italy has learned the lesson paid for in human lives by the people of northern Italy and have learned from that and they've moved from reacting to the presence of cases in their cities to being proactive as we've been saying for weeks on this on this video so these lockdown measures in Italy are are working and they will work they just need to be persevered with so very good news there from Italy even in the midst of this this tragedy that a millions of cases have been prevented in southern Italy and that's not an exaggeration many millions of cases have been prevented in southern Italy and the lockdown measures has prevented many deaths in southern Italy because they've learned the lessons from the north even though the the price in the north has been astronomical now Spain is entering its second week of lockdown now as well that's been extended till the 11th of April a lot of cases and more deaths but again some glimmers of hope that there's a slight reduction in new cases in Spain today now if that's the case and not just as a statistical blip for the second week of lockdown that is remarkably effective now there's no question in my mind at all that the number of cases in Spain are going to reduce next week when they go into the end of the second week of the lockdown no question in my mind at all about that and if it's that that's happening already of the just entering the second week that is remarkably good news and with the people of Madrid and Spain we were just to reach out to them now we know we know about there the level of their suffering France the lockdown measures in France are being vigorously enforced now by the French authorities which is good to see people are being stopped in their cars questioned and fined if they're the reason for being out is not appropriate the lockdown in France is working and again I'm anticipating that this lockdown will be paying dividends in the next few days to the next week in France as the number of new cases I expect there to decrease as well and what this means in these countries is we could be in the UK France places like that probably even Germany we could be reaching the peak in the next two or three weeks so these lockdown measures are essential and are starting to - were starting to take effect and once we get the testing as well it's going to be we're going to be attacking the the disease from both ends at the moment we're just attacking it from the top we're just pushing down on it you need to be picking away at the bottom as well with the specific targeted testing which is not we are doing some but nowhere near enough nowhere near enough because the only way that we're going to be able to lift the lockdown if you like this kind of initial Chinese strategy is by replacing it with the Korean strategy of lots of testing targeted isolation targeted quarantine because we need to make the enemy visible until then I see no alternative to keeping the lockdown measures in place so my countries introduce them for three weeks if we have massive testing in three weeks you might better start lifting them if not it's going to have to be another three weeks there's no doubt in my mind about that I'm afraid so we really need for massive for every reason to get testing hiked up to an absolutely massive scale both the antigen testing for the virus and the antibody testing for the immune protein that the virus makes we need both while we wait for the vaccine now Africa great concern as I've been saying since January I must say I'm pleased and a little surprised the outbreak has been so late in Africa I suspect as well there is way more than this because of the low level of testing so as we are now we can't really say where the pandemic is in Africa but we know this community spread so a lot of African countries affected 16 or more affected now there was some containment of sporadic cases but now the World Health Organization is saying they're moving to the mitigation stage so basically this hasn't worked the cases and clusters have now become community spread we've gone from C to C to C from individual cases to clusters to community spread and now there's wide community spread in a lot of African countries the peak numbers are probably going to be this summer and this terrifies me we're struggling already in sophisticated European countries to cope in African countries what the World Health Organization said is is is some African countries might be less well prepared that is a master of understatement to say the less well prepared is is a great euphemism their health systems that a lot of these countries are well weak to say the least now talking about African countries I've had I've had an email from this was from this verse of South Africa social distancing means you must be a part I know that's one of the reliable saying sorry this is one of the beautiful sayings social distancing means we must be a part but can't stop the Solidarity in our hearts that was out of context anyway never mind right now to get on to the point I was making um the situation in South Africa this is from a concern South African viewer poverty and homelessness that there have been temporary provisions made to house homeless people but there are just too many and a lot of them are illegal immigrants so a lot of people living in very basic conditions the need to work to survive this idea that what you eat that night is determined by what you earn that there were funds set aside and donations received to assist small businesses and their staff but these businesses and individuals have to meet certain criteria which many don't meet so there's a lot of hardship going to come because the South African lockdown starts this Friday informal settlements is kind of another word for slums really where thousands indeed tens of thousands of people live together in small cramped spaces and in close proximity the virus is going to spread in these areas there's a lack of awareness many people especially in informal settled settlements do not know what's going on and those who know what's going on and those that do don't know the severity of it so yesterday we said don't dive ignorance so a lot of these people who have mobile phones so let's get the message out to everyone in the world to download the World Health Organization what's app to get information so great lack of awareness there in South Africa again this is from a South African viewer saying there's a lot of superstitious beliefs there's a rumor that black people do not get affected as badly by the rioters white people right let's deal with that all races get affected by this virus simple as that said again all races can be infected by this virus the idea that skin color and viruses is just ridiculous 79% of South African population is black so these people are just at risk as anyone else is don't believe this dangerous dangerous disinformation lack of proper health care facilities an amount of medical staff now there are medical staff from abroad that want to come and help but the requirements and processes they need to go through in order to work here are quite strict and time-consuming hopefully this can change so this is the idea that governments need to change as well as as well as individuals so very concerning email there and thank you to that concerned viewer in South Africa Bob down starts on Friday and not a moment too soon I mean it's almost certain this community transmission already in South Africa and we've given reasons to be pessimistic about that just now Nigeria not many confirmed cases but there's been the first death and the first death to me indicates has been there for two or three weeks already so I suspect much more spread in Nigeria than we think Congo again first death Congo is locked down now but the first death means it's probably been already spreading for a period of time because the deaths occur in the second and third and fourth week after the onset of symptoms typically so great concern there about Africa we need an international response you really do New Zealand number of cases New Zealand is now totally locked down second day of lockdown again there's probably more cases than this but the lockdown measures in New Zealand are very comprehensive and I am very optimistic that they are going to work the United States more cases over a thousand deaths now New York State has got 21,000 cases so New York State a bit of an epicenter the governor of New York state cases are going up he expected to peak in about three weeks and we can assume that andrew is informed by very clever epidemiologists and he said again in contradiction to what we said at the start of this video the experience in New York State is that 80% of self resolving 15% need hospitalization and I must say this is much more consistent with the figures that we have been seeing this is what makes this so frightening New York emergency hospital has been built in a huge conference center don't know the name of it huge conference centers being converted into a hospital now I'm not sure it was the mayor or the governor of Los Angeles I think it was the mayor I'm not sure six that said Los Angeles a six to twelve days behind New York City so the curve is increasing dramatically in Los Angeles albeit a week to two weeks behind the curve in New York New York I've got 3,000 intensive care beds they need 30,000 for the next three weeks it's a big ask Mercy Ships on its way to Los Angeles I believe that was I think this is a military ship it's got a thousand beds so hopefully that can provide the care which I'm afraid we can predict with some certainty that a lot of people are going to need hospital care in Los Angeles in the next month that's a pretty safe prediction I'm afraid California 40 million people are still locked down and the response in Florida has been let's just say less encouraging than the response in California New Orleans case is increasing very rapidly there one month after Mardi Gras million people on the streets partying having fun a month ago we knew about this that we knew about this pandemic a month ago it looks like the people of New Orleans are now paying for the lack of proactivity by the celebration of a million people after a Mardi Gras my country I guess we've got well over a hundred thousand cases now we can times 10 or times 20 that deaths are increasing micron has been locked down for a few days now the number of cases will start to decrease in a couple of weeks but we're going to have the peak in probably about two or three weeks time in my country if it hadn't been for the shutdown that we now have even though it was somewhat belated that peak would just go on rising so I think what we've got now in the UK his we're going up quite dramatically but now that we've locked down just here so it's going to carry on increasing for a period of time we know that because of the incubation period but then it's going to level off so we should reach the peak in about three weeks time probably in the UK now if we hadn't had the lockdown measures I'm roughly the same scale the number of cases would be doing this they would be going off the page so the lockdown measures in the UK they're expensive it's not what we want but this is the alternative and remember with these increasing numbers we've got 12 percent of critical people summer fruit might die 5% of no serious people $0.12 even some of those might die five-cent of critical patients you know just think if we hadn't done these lockdown measures and 40 million people in the UK were infected that's quite feasible quite quite feasible work out what five percent and 12 percent to 40 million is and it gives you the position we could have been in without the lockdown now the problem is if we take the lockdown off so I suppose we take the lockdown off there then the cases could start increasing again it could be like a second wave this is what we don't want so the lockdown may need to be longer but what we need to do then as well as attacking it from the top with a lockdown like that we need to attack it from the bottom with the testing the precise testing then hopefully in a few weeks time when we've got lots and lots of testing when the invisible enemy is made visible we can release a lot of the lockdown and still have a reduction in the number of cases because of the the the effects of that the testing and hopefully get right down fairly soon so that is the hope but right now this lockdown it's a blunt instrument but it's all we've got until we get this testing so really this three stage is an intervention here there's the lockdown that's the first stage we need to juice that straightaway the second is the testing that's going to bring it down and the thing that's finally going to stop it is the vaccine so at the moment we're group so these are the three weapons that means we're going to beat this virus the lockdown the testing and the vaccine so we've got the lockdown straightaway we're expecting the testing really soon hopefully millions and millions of tests that you can use at home and then we can keep it all the way down until we get the vaccine next year so there is plenty of hope here but we have to act together to get the number of cases down here but we can do this and I believe we will do this

Channel: Dr. John Campbell

Views: 451,573

Keywords: physiology, nursing, NCLEX, health, disease, biology, medicine, nurse education, medical education, pathophysiology, campbell, human biology, human body

Id: 2sy3gtORANw

Length: 27min 50sec (1670 seconds)

Published: Thu Mar 26 2020