Welcome back, y'all. Ryan Hall here with the
weather forecast. There is a ton going on out there right now, so let's just jump right into
the forecast. First of all, what in the heck is going on over here in the Northeast? We've got
smoke, apocalyptic scenes coming through on Casey Neistat's Twitter here. This is not a filter. This
is not edited. This is what New York City looked like yesterday for the majority of the day as
there was an emergency-level situation unfolding due to the quality of the air. A hazardous amount
of smoke particles filled the air across a lot of the Northeast yesterday, thanks to some wildfires,
some pretty intense wildfires in Canada. And this is what New York City looked like, which is one
of the most incredible things I've ever seen. There's going to be some more smoke today. I don't
think it's going to be this bad, but we're going to see this level of smoke in maybe some more
places as we go forward. And let me show you the smoke forecast. Okay, so what you're looking at
here is our plume of smoke that's came down from Quebec from all these wildfires, and it's kind of
compiled over the Northeast. And the really bright colors is where we have the highest concentration
of smoke. Now, this is around 8 AM this morning. By the time you're watching this, it's probably
noon, maybe 1 PM, and as you can see, everything's moving a little bit farther to the south, and it's
getting a little bit more diffused. We don't have as much high contrast smoke as what we were seeing
yesterday, but we can still see some haze in the air as far south as Atlanta, Georgia today as
the smoke continues to kind of compile down here along the Eastern Seaboard. Now, I'm not seeing
any signs of orange skies or red Dystopian views in the near future for places like Washington,
DC. and Baltimore, but today through tomorrow, we are going to see some smoke, and it might get
to some sort of unhealthy levels out there. So this is what the smoke is going to look like as we
go through the near future. This goes all the way through 4 AM, 5 AM Saturday, and everything does
seem to calm down a little bit by this time. But we still got a slight shield of smoke across a lot
of the eastern US. And any new fires that spark up up here in Canada will ingest new smoke down into
the US. So this is something that we're just going to have to monitor as we go forward. Now, why is
this happening? Why is there smoke, like what's going on here? This is not a common thing on the
East Coast. A lot of you guys out here in the west are used to seeing this, but in New York City,
the reason why that view was so crazy yesterday is because this is not a normal thing. Well,
it's because a couple of non-normal things are happening. First of all, we've got a winter-time
trough pretty much setting up over the East Coast. This dip in the jet stream is so uncommon in June,
and wildfires aren't that uncommon. Usually you're going to see any smoke that pops up over here
eject off to the northeast, okay? And then go up over into the Atlantic Ocean. The reason why we're
seeing so much smoke right now is because of this trough, right? It's locking in all of this air in
the same spot. So when a fire forms up here, it kind of just wanders down and then it just kind of
swirls around and compiles because there's nowhere for it to go. It's locked in to this trough. And
smoke is not the only thing that this trough is locking into place. What else does Canada have?
It's not just fire and smoke. It's daggone cool air. And you can see that very clearly here. You
can see exactly where the trough is. You can see a clear boundary between warm air and cool air. And
that's what's happening with this trough. Not only do we have the smoke, we've got cool Canadian
air kind of just sitting over Pennsylvania and surrounding areas. And this boundary is
determining where we see our thunderstorms. So this time of year, we get a lot of pop-up showers
and thunderstorms. There's a lot of energy working its way out of the Gulf of Mexico and this trough
and this area of smoke is dictating where that's happening. So essentially what I'm trying to say
is this thing of smoke, this big conglomeration of smoke, is literally controlling our weather.
What it decides to do 100% determines what happens with the rest of our weather systems. Because if
this wall stays here, then everything's just going to kind of hit it, blow up over here, and fizzle
out, and we're going to continue to experience dry conditions anywhere east of it. So the big wall of
smoke is absolutely controlling our weather right now. And we are completely at its mercy because
a lot of other storm systems are trying to form over here and move east, but they can't because of
the trough. Now this is not going to last forever, but the intricacies of how intense the trough is
and how much this warm air is allowed to advect as we go into the future is going to drastically
change the type of weather that we see. And one of the things that we're definitely going to be
dealing with as we go later into June is severe weather. In fact, today we have a slight risk of
severe weather from San Antonio to Houston. This is Thursday, June 8. Mainly a hail and wind risk.
But you can see here we do have that slight risk in place. So make sure you're ready for that.
That's going to be happening a little bit later today. And then on Saturday we have a big slight
risk from Oklahoma City to Tulsa down to Dallas, Shreveport, and almost to Little Rock. This one
might be a little bit more intense. Still looks like a hail and wind threat for the most part,
but we're thinking that this could actually be a little bit farther east than this, could be
a little bit farther west. It all depends on what happens with our big area of smoke and that
trough that's locking in the cooler air up there in the northeast. Check this out. You can see it
very clearly on the instantaneous flash rate from the EURO model around noon today through 1 PM.
We're going to have a lot of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It looks like a mesoscale
convective system might form here in East Texas. That's what's prompting that slight risk of
severe weather. Notice how there's no lightning, no storms happening over here and that's because
of the trough. All of this energy, all of this moisture is hitting our wall. And if that wall
moves farther east, I think things are going to kind of break loose as far as severe weather
goes. But right now we've got that little bit of a layer of protection. It's not going to mean much
though on Saturday for areas between Oklahoma City and Dallas because there's still going to be a
significant round of severe weather as we get into the day on Saturday. In fact, I think that
that slight risk will be expanded quite a bit. All of this is scattered in nature, but there's
a little bit more organization. Once again, another mesoscale convective system is probably
going to try to form here in Oklahoma and drive home the hail threat and the wind threat a little
bit more, maybe in the form of supercells at the beginning of the system as we go deeper in the day
on Saturday. And then from there we're watching that wall very closely. It does look like it's
going to try to break and we might be dealing with severe weather a little bit farther to the
east, and we have another storm system coming in and that's where things get a little bit crazy. So
I mentioned before how this is not normal, right? Having a big trough like this in the eastern US in
June is just not something that you normally see and that's why we don't normally see the effects
that we're seeing from it. Well, it's not normal for the jet stream to be playing around in the
continental US during June at all, okay? And this is why normally severe weather and stuff takes
place way up here in Canada this time of year. Don't get me wrong, we get mesoscale convective
systems, we get severe weather in the southern and central and eastern US all the time in June. But
what we're going to see as we go into next week is literally a spring-like jet stream setup where we
might actually have some real interactions, some real wind shear and some real tasty ingredients
for severe weather moving through. And this could cause a multi-day severe weather threat from the
Central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley, maybe even into the southeastern US. This
is something that we'll have to watch very closely as there's going to be a lot of lift
here and it's June, so we don't have to worry about moisture return or heat indices or anything
like that. All the energy is going to be there. We've just got to have some mechanism to lift it
into the atmosphere. And this looks like it might be that. So I'm watching this very closely as it
could be our next string of significant weather. We've had a little bit of a break. I’ve felt like
I've been on vacation for the last little bit, but this active jet stream rolling through
the US in the middle of June is definitely going to bring us back to reality here as we're
going to be tracking strong weather through the middle of June. And something else that we've
got to keep our eye on as we go later into June is the tropics. Okay? We have been seeing a very
consistent signal for something to enter the Gulf of Mexico as we get into the June 19 through the
21st time-frame. And if this actually happens, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm, okay? And if
we've got this big kind of ridge up here, we don't have any lingering jet stream things hanging
around the Gulf. There's going to be nothing stopping it from kind of exploding into a tropical
storm or a hurricane and then eventually coming up into the US. Right now this shows a hurricane,
probably, hitting somewhere between Mississippi and Florida around June 21. Now, this is not going
to happen. This is just one model run, but I've seen different runs show this hitting Texas,
coming up to Louisiana, a couple of them even take it up there into the Mobile area. This could
be gone tomorrow. This is way out into la la land here. But it's something that we're watching and
it's something to just kind of remember because, hey, we're entering the depths of hurricane
season and this is something that we have to pay attention to this time of year. So don't worry
too much about it. I'll keep you updated if this becomes something more significant. And that's
it. That's all the weather I have for you today, guys. Thank you so much for watching. I'm going to
have a main channel video tomorrow which goes into all this stuff even more in-depth, and we're going
to talk more about the severe weather. So make sure you subscribe to the Ryan Hall Y'all channel
as well and I will see you next time. Goodbye!
