PREGNANCY, WITH THE PAIN AND SUFFERING, I THINK IT'S COOL. >> WHEN ALL IN STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> GOOD EVENING FROM NEW YORK, I'M CHRIS HAYES. WE'RE JUST A FEW WEEKS FROM THE FIRST VOTES, ACTUAL VOTES BEING CAST IN THE EARLY NOMINATING CONTEST FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ONE OF THE MAIN POINTS OF DISCUSSION, CENTRAL FOCUSES HEADING INTO THIS ELECTION, CENTERS AROUND THE ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF OUR COUNTRY. THAT'S BECAUSE GENERALLY SPEAKING HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT THE ECONOMY WRIT LARGE IS LARGELY PREDICTIVE OF HOW AN INCOMING PRESIDENT WILL PERFORM IF THEY RUN FOR REELECTION. A LOT OF PEOPLE NOTICE THERE'S A STRANGE PARADOX AT THE CENTER OF OUR ECONOMY, WHICH IS THAT IF YOU LOOK AT MANY IF NOT MOST OF THE EMPIRICAL METRICS, THE ECONOMY IS DOING SURPRISINGLY WELL. IF YOU DO IT ECONOMIC SENTIMENT, HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, THE NUMBERS ARE NEAR HISTORICALLY PESSIMISTIC. THERE IS A REAL GAP BETWEEN HOW THE ECONOMY IS ACTUALLY DOING, AT LEAST BASED ON MOST OF THE MEASUREMENTS WE NORMALLY USE, AND HOW PEOPLE THINK THE ECONOMY IS DOING. OR, I SHOULD SAY, AT THE VERY LEAST, HOW THEY TELL POLLSTERS THEY FEEL ABOUT IT. YOU CAN SEE IT HERE ON THIS CHART. THE BLUE LINE, HOW YOU WOULD EXPECT PEOPLE WOULD FEEL ABOUT ECONOMIC NUMBERS IN THE RED LINE, HOW THEY ACTUALLY FEEL, THEY'RE USUALLY IN SYNC. WHEN THINGS GET WORSE, PEOPLE FEEL WORSE, WHEN BETTER PEOPLE FEEL BETTER. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A HUGE GULF BETWEEN THEM. THAT GULF, IT IS WORTH NOTING, DOES NOT EXIST IN SIMILAR WEALTHY COUNTRIES LIKE FRANCE AND GERMANY AND THE UK. IT'S ONLY HERE. EVEN THOUGH WE'RE DOING A LOT BETTER THAN THOSE PLACES. AND BECAUSE OF THIS, AT THIS HUGE DEBATE HAS BROKEN OUT ABOUT HOW TO EXPLAIN THIS FUNDAMENTAL GAP. ONE ARGUMENT IS THAT PEOPLE FEEL SO BADLY ABOUT THE ECONOMY BECAUSE, WELL, THEY'RE STILL FRUSTRATED BY THE EXPERIENCE OF THE LAST TWO YEARS OR THAT THERE ARE CERTAIN THINGS, LIKE HOUSING PRICES RIGHT NOW, THAT IS STILL VERY HIGH. IT'S TRUE. HOUSING PRICES ARE HIGH RIGHT NOW. THAT'S HARD. OTHERS ARGUE THAT AMERICANS ARE JUST GETTING INUNDATED WITH NEGATIVE MESSAGING ABOUT THE ECONOMY. I'VE GOT TO, SAY I'M VERY INVESTED IN UNDERSTANDING THIS PHENOMENON. BUT IT'S WORTH TAKING A STEP BACK TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL ECONOMIC RECORD OF THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT. WHAT SORT OF CIRCUMSTANCES HAS HE INHERITED? WHAT HAS HE ACCOMPLISHED INDEPENDENT OF THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION? LET'S LOOK AT HOW WE GOT TO WHERE WE ARE NOW. THE THEME OF THE BIDEN PRESIDENCY HAS BEEN INHERITING A SUCCESSION OF ESSENTIALLY UNPRECEDENTED CRISES, CRISES THAT HAVE AFFLICTED THE ENTIRE WORLD AND HAVE PRODUCED WAY WORSE ECONOMIC OUTCOMES IN OTHER PEER COUNTRIES. THE SOURCE OF ALL THIS, THE ORIGINAL SOURCE IS THAT WE HAD, AS YOU MIGHT REMEMBER, A ONCE IN A CENTURY PANDEMIC, GLOBALLY, THAT KILLED MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE WORLD ECONOMIES, SHUT DOWN ENTIRE INDUSTRIES, AND THEN WE TRIED TO COME BACK OUT OF IT. THAT'S A BASICALLY TO REMEMBER. NOW AS PRESIDENT YOU GET CREDIT FOR THINGS WHEN THINGS ARE GOOD, TO GET BLAMED WHEN THINGS ARE BAD. EVEN IF THEY'RE OUT OF YOUR CONTROL IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. WE SAW THIS IN 2019 WHEN DONALD TRUMP HAD DONE ESSENTIALLY NOTHING TO HELP THE ECONOMY, IN FACT DID HIS BEST TO HURT IT WITH MASSIVE TAX CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY CORPORATIONS IN THE RIDICULOUS TRADE WAR. BUT HE STILL PRESIDED OVER AN ECONOMY THAT WAS FINALLY RECOVERING AFTER A FINANCIAL CRISIS A DECADE LATER AND HE GOT THE CREDIT FOR IT. WE ALSO SAW IT IN 2020, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, WHEN COVID ANNIHILATED THE U.S. ECONOMY AND THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT, DONALD TRUMP, LOST. ONCE BIDEN TOOK OVER, BASICALLY FROM THE MOMENT HE WAS SWORN IN, WE BECAME INUNDATED WITH NEGATIVE MESSAGING ABOUT THE ECONOMY. SOME OF IT, A LOT OF, IT WAS ROOTED IN REAL CRISES THE ADMINISTRATION HAD TO TACKLE, IN A LOT OF IT WAS OVERHYPED. THIS COLLECTIVE FREAK OUT ABOUT THE FREAK OUT HAPPENED ACROSS THE ECOSYSTEM BUT IT WAS MOST PRONOUNCED ON FOX NEWS. I THINK IT'S WORTH TAKING A LOOK AT WHAT EXACTLY AMERICANS HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE ECONOMY OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS AND COMPARE THAT WITH THE ACTUAL CIRCUMSTANCES, AND CRUCIALLY, HOW THE BIDEN WHITE HOUSE RESPONDED. THEY HAD HEARD THE CIRCUMSTANCE, THE RESPONSE IS UP TO THEM. LET'S START WITH THE BIG ISSUE OF WORKERS. BIDEN TOOK OFFICE AMID AN UNPRECEDENTED GLOBAL PANDEMIC. REMEMBER, THERE WAS NOT EVEN A WIDELY AVAILABLE VACCINE WHEN HE WAS SWORN IN. AS A RESULT, THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CONTINUED THE ECONOMIC STIMULUS, THEY PASSED ON A PARTY LINE VOTE, THE AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE AMOUNT OF AID TO FAMILIES DIRECTLY, INCLUDING ADDITIONAL DIRECT CASH PAYMENTS, ADDITIONAL $300 A WEEK IN UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS. THIS WAS A BIG RISK. AND FOX'S RESPONSE TO LABOR SHORTAGES, WHICH WERE REAL, AMID A DEADLY PANDEMIC, WAS THAT SUDDENLY NOBODY WANTED TO WORK ANYMORE. >> BIDEN CREATED A LABOR SHORTAGE BECAUSE HE GAVE WORKERS WAY TOO MUCH FREE MONEY. 183,000 PEOPLE DROPPED OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE. >> BIDEN CREATED A LABOR SHORTAGE. >> LABOR SHORTAGE. >> LABOR SHORTAGE. >> AN 81-YEAR-OLD WOMAN PITCHES IN DURING THE NATIONWIDE LABOR SHORTAGE. >> THEY JUST CAN'T FIND PEOPLE. >> WITH THE LABOR SHORTAGE PEOPLE ARE MAKING MORE MONEY TO STAY HOME, THEY'RE BRINGING OUT THE ROBOTS. >> SOME BUSINESSES HAD TROUBLE FINDING WORKERS BECAUSE IT WAS A REAL CHALLENGE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE DELTA VARIANT HIT THAT SUMMER AND MORE THAN HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE WERE STILL BEING HOSPITALIZED EVERY WEEK. BUT WHAT HAPPENED? THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CONTINUED ITS VACCINATION CAMPAIGN. THE VIRUS SUBSIDED IN ITS -- TO A POINT WHERE PEOPLE WERE COMFORTABLE GOING TO WORK IN PERSON. EQUALLY IS IMPORTANT, THE BOLD AGENDA OF ECONOMIC STIMULUS REALLY WORKED. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES DROPPED MASSIVELY FROM 6.3% IN PRESIDENT BIDEN TOOK OVER TO 3.9% IN THE LAST JOBS REPORT. AGAIN, YOU CAN SEE IT RIGHT THERE ON THE CHART. THAT'S A CHART THAT YOU WANT TO GO DOWN. THAT'S THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE YOU WANT TO GO DOWN. YOU DON'T NEED TO BE AN ECONOMIST TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE LINE DID JUST THAT. PEOPLE DEFINITELY DO WANT TO WORK. IT'S A HOT JOB MARKET. SO, OKAY, FOX MOSTLY MOVED OFF THE NOBODY WANTS TO WORK ANYMORE NARRATIVE ONCE THE JOB NUMBERS IMPROVED AND IT WAS CLEAR PEOPLE DID NOT WORK. THERE WAS A NEW BOOGIE MAN. THE SUPPLY CHAIN. TO BE CLEAR, THESE ISSUES WERE VERY REAL. AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERMATH OF COVID, WHICH DISRUPTED JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING. FOX TOOK THE OPPORTUNITY, STARTING ALL THE WAY BACK IN OCTOBER, 2021, SPINNING THE END BIDEN WAS RESPONSIBLE TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES AND APPARENTLY DO IT TO RUIN CHRISTMAS FOR AMERICA'S CHILDREN. >> THE CHRISTMAS PRESENTS YOU WANT? PROBABLY STUCK ON A SHIP SOMEWHERE. >> ECONOMISTS ARE WARNING MANY CHRISTMAS PRESENTS FOR YOUR KIDS, THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ARRIVING IN TIME. >> HOLIDAYS A BIT HARDER THIS YEAR FOR MANY AMERICANS, THANKS TO JOE BIDEN. >> WE CALLED JOE BIDEN SCOOTER THE GRINCH? >> THE GRINCH WHO STOLE CHRISTMAS. >> THE GRINCH WHO STOLE CHRISTMAS AND AMERICAN GREATNESS. >> DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO BE STEALING OUR CHILDREN'S FUTURE. JUST LIKE THE GRINCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, SLITHERING AROUND THOSE PRESENTS. >> YOU GET THAT? YOU GET A COMPARISON? THE GRINCH, THE FAMOUS DARVISH'S CHARACTER, RUIN CHRISTMAS? BUT MONTHS BEFORE FOX STARTED ITS LATEST WAR ON CHRISTMAS, BIDEN HAD PUT ON THE TASK FORCE TO COMBAT THE SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES. BY FALL HE ANNOUNCED THE PORTAL AS ANGELA'S WILL BE WORKING 24/7 TO CLEAR THE BACKLOG AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL INVESTMENTS FOR U.P.S. SYNTHETICS TO MAKE SURE PACKAGES GOT MOVING. BY NOVEMBER THE HEADS OF A BUNCH OF MAJOR RETAIL COMPANIES WERE SHUTTING FROM THE ROOFTOPS THAT WAS NO SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUE AFFECTING HOLIDAY SHOPPING. IN FACT IT, HOLIDAY SPENDING IN 2021 GREW NEARLY 15% FROM THE YEAR BEFORE, SHATTERING ALL KINDS OF RECORDS. CRISIS AVERTED, THE PRESIDENTS WERE UNDER THE TREE. TO BE CLEAR, IT WAS NOT JUST CHRISTMAS PRESENTS. EARLY LAST YEAR, BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WAS DEALING WITH A VERY REAL SCARY SHORTAGE OF BABY FORMULA. AND FOR TOGETHER ANOTHER PLAN TO INCREASE SUPPLY AND FIX ALLOCATION ISSUES, WHICH WERE CAUSED BOTH BY A SHATTERED FACTORY AND A PRODUCT WE CALL. WHITE HOUSE LATER'S DECLARED PRODUCTION INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR UNDER THEIR WATCH. BY OCTOBER, SHELL STOCKS WERE BACK WHERE THEY WERE BEFORE THE CRISIS STARTED. SO BY THIS POINT BIDEN'S BEEN PRESIDENT FOR TWO YEARS. THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS WERE APPROACHING. REPUBLICANS DIDN'T HAVE A TON TO RUN ON, ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT DOBBS DECISION STRUCK DOWN ABORTION RIGHTS. THEY ARE BEST, HOPE THE CENTRAL HOPE, WAS THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION, WHICH REALLY HAD BEEN SPIKING FOR A WHOLE BUNCH OF REASONS, INCLUDING AROUND THE WORLD, AND PARTLY BECAUSE -- AS WELL AS THE LINGERING THIS REPERCUSSIONS OF THE PANDEMIC. FOX NEWS DID ITS BEST TO ACT AS THE MESSAGING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, SPENDING DAY AFTER DAY TALKING ABOUT EGGS. >> EGG PRICES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER, UP 60%. >> 59.9% ON EGGS. >> EGGS NOW OR THROUGH THE ROOF. >> THE PRICE OF. EGGS >> PRICES ON. EGGS >> EGG PRICES. >> EGG FLASH ON ISRAEL. >> EGGS ARE SO EXPENSES. >> THE AGGIES BECOME SO EXPENSIVE, NO MORE EASTER EGGS. >> EVERYBODY I KNOW IS GETTING CHICKENS SO THEY CAN HAVE A THEIR OWN EGGS. >> INFLATION IS AN INTERESTING CASE IN THAT IT WASN'T ABOUT BROADER INFLATION. NEARLY 2022, AN AVIAN FLU KILLED TENS OF MILLIONS OF EGG-LAYING CHICKENS, ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE SUPPLY CRUNCH. GUESS WHAT? THE SHIP CORRECTED CORPS. FARMERS RAISE NEW CHICKENS, EGG PRICES CAME BACK DOWN, YOUR OMELET IS NOT IN DANGER. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, EGGS WERE NOT THE PRIMARY TARGET OF FOXES BREATHLESS INFLATION COVER COVERAGE. FOXY IN THE BIG GUNS FOR PERHAPS THE MOST SALIENT POLITICAL ISSUE OF OUR TIME. >> LET'S TALK ABOUT THE PAIN AT THE PUMP. WE ARE PAYING SOME OF THE HIGHEST PRICES IN AMERICAN HISTORY. >> ANOTHER DAILY RECORD HIGH. . >> GAS >> PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF. >> GAS PRICES THROUGH THE. WITH >> GAS PRICES ARE NOW THROUGH THE ROOF. >> GAS PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF. >> GAS PRICES THROUGH THE ROOF. >> PAIN IN THE. GAS GAS PRICES SURGING. >> REPUBLICANS, AND THEIR EYES ARE NOT. INFLATION SPECIFICALLY AT THE POMP, WHEN YOU SEE THE PRICES EVERY DAY, IN THEORY THAT SHOULD'VE BEEN A CLEAR ATTACK. AFTER ALL, THERE WAS A MAJOR LAND WAR IN EUROPE AND A MASS BLOCKADE OF RUSSIAN OIL IN THE OIL PRICES REALLY REALLY WENT UP. AND ONE POINT GAS WAS AVERAGING MORE THAN FIVE BUCKS A GALLON. GALLANT DID JOE BIDEN CAUSE? IT DOESN'T MATTER. THE SINGLE-MINDED CAMPAIGN MESSAGE WAS NOT PARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE, ESPECIALLY WHEN BEING DELIVERED BY SOME TRULY TERRIBLE CANDIDATES. THE BIG RED WAVE DID NOT MATERIALIZE. SO YOU'VE GOT TO THINK THAT MANY VOTERS DO NOT BLAME THE DEMOCRATS FOR GAS PRICES EVEN AFTER MONTHS OF FOLKS THOSE STICKERS MIGHT BE SOMETHING QUITE DIFFERENT FOR BETTER OR FOR MY OPINION WORSE, AND GUESS WHAT, GAS PRICES ARE DOWN FROM THEIR HIGHEST. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE IS 22 A GALLON THE LOWEST AT FOLLOWING A STEADY DECLINE. AND THAT TRACKS OF ALL KINDS OF PRICES. INFLATION HAS COOLED DRAMATICALLY WITH RATES DECLINING FROM THE PEAK OF ABOUT LAST YEAR TO ABOUT 3.2%. AGAIN, YOU DON'T HEAR FOX NEWS TALKING TOO MUCH ABOUT THE PRICE OF GAS THESE DAYS, OR THE PRICE OF EGGS, OR CHRISTMAS PRESENTS. AND SO THE STORY OF THE BIDEN PRESIDENCY SO FAR HAS BEEN THIS SERIES OF METAPHORICAL METEORS HITTING THE EARTH. UNEXPECTED, IN MANY INSTANCES UNPRECEDENTED, THAT THE WHITE HOUSE HAD TO ATTEND. TO EACH ONE HAS COST HUGE CYCLES OF A NEGATIVE COVERAGE, AROUND THE CLOCK PANIC ACROSS MEDIA. AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS ATTEMPTED TO DO SOMETHING WITH PROBLEM IN NEARLY EVERY CASE. IN MANY CASES THEY SAW A REAL TANGIBLE SUCCESS, WHICH IS TO SAY, IN MOST CASES THEY QUIETLY DO THEIR JOB. THEN HE MOVED ON TO THE NEXT CRISIS. BUT THAT IS NOT THE MESSAGE GETTING TO FOX NEWS. THE ENTIRE ECONOMY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE ANY MINUTE. >> FIRST LET ME SAY FOR THE RECORD, IT'S A RECESSION. I'M TELLING, YOU IT'S A RECESSION. >> IF IT SMELLS LIKE A RECESSION, WALKS LIKE A RECESSION, IT'S A RECESSION. WE BEGIN WITH THE BIDEN RECESSION. >> THE BIDEN RECESSION. >> THE BIDEN RECESSION. >> THE BIDEN RECESSION. >> THE AUTO INDUSTRY IS IN RECESSION, THE HOUSING INDUSTRY IS IN RECESSION, RETAILERS IN RECESSION, ADVERTISING IS IN RECESSION. >> RECESSION IS A CERTAINTY. >> VISIBLE CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BECAUSE WE ARE HERE WE ARE HEARING RECESSION, RECESSION, RECESSION. >> THAT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE SHE'S RIGHT AT ONE LEVEL. THE DISMAL NEWS IS BECAUSE THEY'RE HEARING RECESSION RECESSION, ALTHOUGH THERE'S NO EMINENT RECESSION. ACCORDING TO RECENT SURVEY BUSINESS ECONOMISTS THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THEM, WHERE THE 75%, DO NOT BELIEVE A RECESSION IS LIKELY. IN FACT, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY ARE MUCH SOUND OR THAN YOU MIGHT THINK THEY'RE. GDP IS ABSOLUTELY BOOMING. EVEN MORE IMPORTANTLY, THIS IS CENTRAL, REAL WAGES ARE RISING. THAT MEANS WAGES RIGHT NOW ARE RISING FASTER THAN INFLATION, WHICH MEANS WORKING PEOPLE HAVE MORE PURCHASING POWER. IN FACT, THE LARGEST WAGE GAINS HAVE HAPPENED IN THE BOTTOM 40% OF WORKERS. FROM THE BOTTOM UP, THE CERTAIN RECESSION IS NOW FAR FROM CERTAIN. IT MAY EVEN APPEAR UNLIKELY, WHICH ITSELF IS A MINOR MIRACLE. WE ARE LEFT IN THIS WEIRD PLACE WHERE PEOPLE FEEL BAD ABOUT THE ECONOMY. I'M NOT TELLING ANYONE HOW TO FEEL OR WHAT THEIR FINANCES ARE. PEOPLE FEEL HOW THEY FEAR FEEL. IF THEY'RE STRESSED OR STRESSED. HOUSING PRICES ARE FINE. BUT THE WEIRD THING ABOUT PRESIDENTS, THE WAY THEIR CREDIT BLAME WORKS IS PRESIDENTS GET BLAMED FOR THE BAD STUFF, PRAISE FOR THE GOOD. EVEN WHEN THE FED HAD MORE TO DO WITH COOLING INFLATION THAN THE WHITE HOUSE DOES. BUT I ALSO THINK THAT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE EKE OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, DEALING WITH WHAT'S DEALT YOU, BIDEN IS NOT GETTING THE PRAISE HE DESERVES. IF YOU WERE EVALUATING PRESIDENTIAL -- YOU'VE GOT TO KEEP THE RULES CONSISTENT. DONALD TRUMP'S BUDDIES ON FOX WANT TO PRAISE HIM FOR THE GREAT ECONOMY FROM 2017 TO 2019 WHILE IGNORING THE 2020 DISASTER THAT UNFOLDED UNDER HIS WATCH. THEY WANT YOU TO BELIEVE TRUMP'S TERM ONLY LAST THREE YEARS, AND THEN HE JUST DISAPPEARED. BEFORE BIDEN TOOK OVER AND A BUNCH OF BAD STUFF HAPPEN UNDER HIS WATCH. THE ACTUAL RECORD IS A DONALD TRUMP OVERSAW THE BIGGEST JOB LOSS OF A PRESIDENT IN AMERICAN HISTORY, ALONG WITH MASS DEATH AN ABJECT DISASTER. YOU MIGHT SAY THAT WAS NOT DONALD TRUMP'S FAULT. FAIR ENOUGH, BUT INFLATION, THE SUPPLY CHAIN, AND EGGS, AND RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE, AND SPIKING GAS PRICES AND SHIPPING BACKLOGS? THOSE ARE NOT PRESIDENT BIDEN'S FAULT EITHER. BUT HE HAS GOTTEN THE WORK PUTTING TOGETHER AN ECONOMIC VISION COMPLETELY OPPOSITE OF DONALD TRUMP, WHO CUT TAXES FOR CORPORATIONS AND RICH PEOPLE AS HIS SIGNATURE ECONOMIC MOVE. PRESIDENT BIDEN LIKES TO SAY HE WANTS AN ECONOMY FROM THE MIDDLE UP, FROM THE BOTTOM UP, AND IT'S ACTUALLY PRODUCED TANGIBLE BENEFITS. MORE WORKERS UNIONIZED,
