The U.S. Consumer Won't Quit with Darius Dale

foreign [Music] what's propping up the U.S consumer hi everyone Welcome to our summer Friday edition of the daily briefing with me today is Darius Dale founder of 42 macro hey there Darius hey Maggie happy Friday how are you exactly if Darius are both mine we're talking about what a hectic week it was for everybody and we're psyched psyched that we made it to Friday um so but on that note Darius let's let's wrap up a little bit because we had a lot of information we had a lot of things happening fed meeting a lot of economic data so as we kind of reflect on everything we learned this week what's your take on what you saw and heard yeah uh so I mean if I could summarize it we could obviously unpack this uh for the for the audience um if you think about kind of what happened with respect to the FED meeting uh we sort of termed it uh hunting for bigfoot in terms of the fed's posture their shifting reaction function in terms of uh hoping for a disinflationary self-landing which uh which is a very unlikely uh probability in the US economy uh shifting to the ECB uh hunting for big game uh this is sort of how it would contextualize uh Madame mcgard's uh you know very aggressive very hawkish uh press conference yesterday uh and then lastly this morning um you know missed the hunting boat I guess if you will in terms of the blj in ueta or maybe maybe Crouching Tiger if you will you know kind of sleep at the wheel I don't know something absent not quite on the hunt yet but certainly uh certainly in the woods and you know it got its fangs out ready so are we gonna unpack each of those things but the conclusion from my perspective is we think the move down in the dollar has probably run its course maybe he has a little bit more juice to the down outside here but we ultimately think the dollar is likely to be grinding higher and draining Global liquidity in the process so in the coming months so it's a lot to unpack so why is the dollar why would the dollar be moving higher especially when you see it you know different different policy uh decisions happening this week what's driving that dollar higher yeah so so it really starts with okay where are we headed from the perspective of okay the the data that are going to drive the central bank's reaction functions and then more importantly what's priced in with respect to those data so I'll start with respect to um U.S inflation we've got U.S inflation uh CPI on Tuesday I want to say the kind of the key highlights as it relates to sort of how we think about inflation on a three-month annualized rate of change basis uh we saw super core CPI that decelerated 100 basis points 3.1 percent so that was very positive uh in support of this sort of hunting for bigfoot posture out of the FED we saw trim mean CPI decelerate uh 110 basis points to uh three plus three point one percent as well so you know we saw pretty significant move down in inflation and that supports you know kind of what that sort of sets us up for one more month of a significant move down in inflation on a year-over-year basis which is what most of everyone else's look at we look at the sequentials the front run the year of years and the reality is it's probably going to see a significant drop off next month in June uh with respect to a year of year inflation you got the base effect on the headline inflation is going to drop off from 1.2 percent month over month to zero you get the base effect of core inflation is going to get cut in half from 0.6 percent to 0.3 percent and so as a function of that and I think that money markets are already pricing Brian if you can throw up slide three uh that we sent uh money markets are sort of already pricing this opportunity this this expectation in that the further inflation data are going to cause the FED to maybe even pause at their July meeting which which may be the case so in this chart here I'm showing uh the blue lines in these panels so let me start by saying this four panels they represent the uh you the fed the ECB the bank of England and the bank of Japan the Blue Line in the panels represents the terminal policy rate as derived from the overnight index swap Market which are swaps on the respective policy rate in the in the locality and the FED in the terminal and the terminal floor rate so the the you know with the lowest um what the main value is in terms of the two year out ois curve and what we're seeing here if you look at the a couple things interesting things happen this week so the Blue Line in the top panel which is the terminal fed funds rate was trapped in unchanged week over week at 5.37 despite the hawkish.pot revision of 5.625 um number two we saw the terminal ECB policy rate Gallup higher week over week up about 14 basis points and then and the kind of the key takeaway we call out here is that money markets are pricing in twice as much easing by the FED as they see out of the ECB over the next two years at 198 basis points for the FED 100 basis points for the ECB and in our view that's very unlikely given that a the European recession is is already in the European economy is in recession uh two uh the European inflation tends to lag U.S inflation by two quarters which means they're about to head into the most disinflationary part of their disinflation process over the next two quarters kind of starting in the second half of this year so when you kind of put all those things together and tie a bow around that with respect to on valuations on slide two Brian where we show our religious rate differential model we see that the dollar is slightly undervalued on a carry basis so the x-axis we showed the year over year basis point Delta in the real one-year real interest rate and on the y-axis we show the year over year percentage change in the nominal effective exchange rate which is a broad trade rated basket for the currency and as you can see you know most currencies are generally on the trend line but the US you know with this you know with the strongest carry in the world in terms of all these major currencies um it's you know certainly much much below the trend line it seems to us that the market has kind of run with this dollar bear uh narrative at least in the short term a little bit too far you know so I'm gonna I'm gonna ask you for clarification because I'm glad I put that out there that it's Friday and it's been a long week because I think my brain might be slightly lagging but itself um so you're not because at first I'm listening to the feds hawkish we're hawkish this is a Skip and I'm it's a the most hawkish skip there could be and listening to them say that the market just regarded it the you know the easing's out but it still seems like everybody thinks the FED may just be on hold now or that the rate hikes are done so I'm thinking why is the dollar gonna strengthen on that use if I'm understanding you right it's less you're looking at maybe they're just overestimating the amount of tightening or rate hikes or hawkishness from the ECB and that's the side of the equation they have wrong is that right or did I did I go astray not quite but it's it's um it's along the appropriate path what we're effectively arguing going back to that slide three where we show the terminal and floor rates and the spreads between them is that the market is already effectively bought into this story that the FED has effectively done you're seeing maybe a half of rate hike priced into the terminal fed funds rate whereas the ecbs you saw you know see move up substantially and continue to Trend higher um you know we sort of really Flatline in terms of terminal policy rate expectations out of the Fed so the market is not buying the Federal Reserve is going to continue tightening rates uh hiking interest rates which we believe is is a very you know we want to take that option we want to take that bet um in terms of you know running fate that market expectation and the reason we want to take that bet uh Brian if you go uh chart four quite a busy chart but as you know I cannot I'm here to explain them uh so you know we definitely believe that the the we're setting up to see a series of upside inflation surprises throughout 2023 at least until the market kind of catches up to where we are where we've been at 42 macro uh with respect to the U.S business cycle recall that since the fall of last year we thought that the US the highest probability um of a recession the highest quarter with the highest probability with recession uh for a recession commencing in the U.S economy was Q4 of this year and the second highest probability is q1 of next year and we have a business cycle timing models to get us to that view and so we understand that hey consensus is calling for the recession to commence in the third quarter there that's that used to be the first quarter that was wrong it used to be the second quarter that was wrong so they're just going to roll it a quarter forward here but if that's wrong if that continues to be wrong what's more than likely to happen is that as we get past those easy base effects in June on inflation and start to get into the July data and Beyond it's very likely that we're going to start to see a firmness of inflation certainly on a relative basis to consensus but potentially an absolute basis as well so going back to this chart what I'm showing in this chart across um you know kind of these these five Cycles here we're showing the median trailing 10-year Delta adjusted z-score of a basket of indicators that represent these uh particular Cycles in the economy and and the sort of Benchmark too when you know the number of months before and after when the recession starts so there's housing there's about 12 indicators in there orders is about 12 indicators in there production profits I think there's five indicators in there employment I think there's 10 indicators in there and inflation about six or seven indicators and again we're showing the median trailing 10-year Delta adjusted z-score and so the x is on these lines indicate when on on balance the compendium of indicators feature in each of these um buckets breaks down below trans sustainably ahead of recession and housing as you can see breaks down on balance around 18 months ahead of the recession orders takes down about you know kind of 10 months ahead of recession production and profits kind of break down around six months ahead of recession employment tends to break down right as the recession is starting and inflation being the most lagging indicator of of the U.S business cycle tends to break down kind of six to eight months after the recession starts so we've already had a lot of transitory disinflation going back to you know some of the inflation that we saw last year was in D transitory but we're going to get to the part of the the movie where you're just not going to get significantly more positive inflation outcomes without having a significant uh drawdown in an overall labor market and an increase in slack in the labor market so that yeah that's interesting and this is where um for those of you who remember the conversation you have the brow where you and Ral diff have differences in terms of the timing of that recession so do you think the FED is going to resume do you think that we have more rate hikes coming from the FED yes absolutely uh in our view yeah without question it may not be in July because again the June data point we're going to get is going to be pretty dovish it's already kind of priced into the market so it's unlikely to surprise markets If the Fed does not hike in July but certainly by their September meeting and again perhaps in their November meetings uh their their tightening policy further uh so interesting so and you certainly don't see that in the market right now uh before we get to sort of where where things may be mispriced with the market because I mean it was incredible incredible they the the FED took such pains to deliver that message stocks rallied right through we saw we just saw the market kind of just not believe them through because some of the language uh when we're talking about recession that we saw University of Michigan consumer sentiment rise to a four-month high today um that is interesting and kind of feeding into that conversation about the economy being stronger what's propping up the consumer we started the show with that where's that coming from why is sentiment holding up so there's a variety of things that are propping up the consumer but specifically as it relates to the today's University of Michigan consumer confidence data we saw almost 100 basis point deceleration in the one-year Ford inflation expectation and that that survey um tends to be much more anchored on inflation Dynamics relative to the conference board survey which is much more anchored on labor market dynamics with respect to labor market dynamics that's also one of the things that's been holding up and propping up consumer uh consumer spending which again this is something we've we've been talking about 42 Mega research since July of last year in terms of the booming U.S labor market and it's obviously continued here um throughout um throughout throughout 2023 so that's one factor that's been supporting of the consumer in the broader uh U.S business cycle another Factor that's been supportive is the amount of cash that we continue to see on household and corporate balance sheets everyone talks about this kind of wonky concept of excess savings but nobody tells you where it's excess above or below because no one's actually doing the math and the research on this stuff they just kind of paired other people's sayings so we do the math and the research on this stuff and you know in terms of the total amount of cash on household balance sheets and corporate balance sheets were about three percent of total assets we have to go all the way back to the late 1960s to see that the high of a ratio of cash on on consumer and corporate balance sheets respectively um so that's one factor uh manufacturing as a share of the economies declined significantly it's only about 14 of GDP it's only about 18 or sorry 18 of GDP 14 of the labor force manufacturing on balance if you look at the 12 post or recessions uh that we have you know labor market data for manufacturing on on net tends to account for 98 of the net job loss in the recessions on a median basis across those 12 recessions so the more volatile sector of the economy is just smaller so we got to do more damage to it to actually have a recession spill over into the services sector and then one final thing um you know could chair pal talked about this on Wednesday which is like housing is just not as housing has proven to be quite resilient relatively interesting shock that we're experiencing and part of the reason for that is because of the interest rate shots ironically you you you put you took interest rates in terms of the marginal margin rate for anyone in the market to buy a home from effectively zero to seven percent but you didn't take the effective mortgage rate across all the Mortgage Debt outstanding to seven percent it's still down around three and a half percent and so what's happened is there's a committing a complete stasis in existing home sales because no one is going to trade their three and a half percent mortgage for a seven percent mortgage and so that's ironically put a lot of upward pressure on the demand for new homes which is why the housing market is really uh you know kind of not taking the way it would have historically uh tanked it in recent Cycles that'll end once the labor market starts to you know deteriorate a little bit but again we've been very consistent on this for you know three three quarters now a recession at earliest is Q4 of this year and second highest probability is q1 of next year that's a lot of time and space for Bears to continue getting squeezed between now and then that is a great point about housing Darius because and and the US is sort of known for Mobility that was that was one of the features of the economy both labor and people are willing for that reason to sell their house but you're right no one is budging out of that three-year that three percent whatever it is low interest rate that they had so that's very interesting that it would be putting that pressure on on new homes and just hurting Supply we talk about demographics but not a lot of people talk about that mortgage aspect of that so the longer we push out the recession uh does it just delay it or does it increase the risk that it's more severe for some reason so I do I do want to clarify we are not pushing out the recession we've always been in that camp right yes he's forced to Kick the Can down the road or consensus right you're right yeah yeah for those who were expecting it to be sooner um I can't remember who said this um it was not I don't know if it was Drucker Miller a gun like someone who was some sort of you know person of that nature that was talking expressed some concern that if we kept going if there was strength that exceeded the because consensus or the you know those who were looking for it that it would just mean it would be harsher when it came do you see it that way or is it just going to be what it is no it's just going to be what it is there's no historical evidence that like this consensus being surprised about a recession means it's going to be harsher what makes a recession the tough in magnitude or you know kind of um more less than shallower or less than mild is obviously the amount of tightening that we see that's why I think they've worried about that I'm now that I'm thinking about I think it's because they thought if it seems strong prompt the FED to keep going increasing the risk that they pile on maybe in a way that perhaps but the the key takeaway that's sort of not missed that's missed in that view is that clearly If the Fed has to keep going then they weren't at restrictive territory right it's only what happens after you get to restricted territory and or how long you remain in a restrictive territory that really has an impact on the actual business cycle so you know this you know that we've had we said in August of last year I think I said it on the show you know the number one thing we're going to be talking about next year is what's the actual level of the the neutral fed funds rate it's probably gone up it's probably gone up a lot but deciding that cash analysis that we just highlighted you know tons of cash in corporate and consumer balance sheets yeah that's a great question what's a neutral fed fundraise I think we're gonna that's something that we're gonna be chewing over a lot over the summer very interesting question from Joel that I think I'll bring up here um this year the FED changed inflation measuring now looking just one year back instead of two thinking of last year's Spike how much does that new measurement impact the current number does it make it look better than it is uh ironically it's actually making it look worse because again we said we sent a little um shift to uh back to services and so you know we're obviously consuming a lot more services a lot more services demand in the economy currently relative to where we are in this kind of post-pandemic cycle so it's not necessarily making things better or worse I wouldn't focus on that I would just focus on the actual balances of the data and the Deltas of the data have been you know we've gotten a lot of positive outcomes on the inflation front that historically very not they typically do not happen this this uh you know this far ahead of a recession commencing and so what it's telling you is that you know some part of the FED that nine percent CPI number we had last year some significant chunk of that was in fact transitory you know as a function of the pandemic Etc but there's also some significant chunk of that that is very not transitory we continue to see the employment confidence actually the most recent prints compounding at nearly five percent quarter over quarter annualized you know we continue to see obviously the cash that's sitting in the economy and where does this all come from well we know know that we had bipartisan support to inflate the fiscal or the the federal balance sheet you know we grew public debt by 6.4 trillion dollars in the two years ended 2021. two sets of White House two sets of congresses and guess how much of that 6.4 trillion dollars of debt the FED monetize on its balance sheet with outright treasury Securities purchases 3.3 trillion almost 52 so clearly there's going to be some residual impact on that for years to come in terms of you know resetting that amount of cash that's just sloshing around the US economy higher and this is why we're having an inflation episode this is why we're going to continue to see you know sticky structural core inflation and if that's going to find it very hard to go from four to two getting from nine to four was pretty easy because there's a lot of transitory inflation going from four to two that's going to take quite a while and the FED acknowledged that in terms of funding out um you know basically punting on their inflation projections into next year yeah um Christopher reminding me it was drunken Miller that that said that along with others who've been on our platform sort of worried about you know um essentially the fed you know keeping their foot on the a hiking slamming the break more than they perhaps needed to as this plays out um and Jordan responding my mortgage was the best hedge I've ever made LOL I feel like a lot of people feel like that a lot of people are hoping to get back to that kind of time but you know not clear not clear if we're gonna we're gonna get there um another interesting comment I love how you guys are rolling up here on a Friday well done we got some brain power going here I love it compensating for perhaps my lack of renewable energy Investments asking are commenting kind of both have we not been in a purchasing power recession for the past two years is there no chance that the answer to an employee shortage and housing shortage is not mass unemployment and a housing crash say that again the answer to it yeah so so he's saying we've been in a purchasing power recession basically aren't we going to see is the answer is the way to solve the employee shortage and housing shortage basically going to resolve itself through mass unemployment and a housing crash is that how well so that's that's I would disagree with the characterization we have not been in a purchasing power recession in fact real disposable personal income is actually accelerating in recent months um if you look at an annualized basis I mean we're up about you know 1.7 percent in the most recent month and that's you know that's pretty close to an 18-month high or something like that and so you know as a function of the disinflation process we are seeing an improvement in real incomes where as a function of the growth in the labor market in terms of jobs we are seeing more people employed and obviously again exciting that cash analysis that we did in terms of household savings and corporate savings so again there's just a lot of money out there supporting consumption so it's coming from a variety of factors you know I would get too bearish on the consumer here you don't need to in terms of focusing on the consumer it's when jobless claims start the rise going back to that chart throw that chart up again Brian in test chart four where we show Our Hope plus I framework and again shout out to Mike canterowitz for giving me the idea to do this analysis I think he was the originator of this kind of framework of thinking about the business cycle um and but in terms of this the reason it's it's it's there's a logical progression to this the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy go you know break down first then we stop ordering all the things that support the interest rates into the sectors then all the companies that support all those things start to break down in terms of their profits they stop producing as much and then eventually their profits are at a level that forced them to kind of right size their business with employment layoffs well you know it's just it's a it's a natural sequence in a very you know kind of beautiful process that the business cycle you know is and ultimately we're oh you don't have to worry about the consumer until we get into the part where you're seeing real layoffs you actually don't even have to worry about the stock market you know we actually um so we have this concept called phase two credit cycle downturn you know when you're in these kind of multi-year bear markets which I believe we're still technically in because again that we believe the recession is still ahead of us and and every recession if you go back and you look at them all the way back to the acting on the Great Depression they always have a market crash associated with the recession we call that market crash the phase two credit cycle downturn because it's usually pricing in the credit cycle and that markets tend to Peak on a median basis right around one month ahead of the trough in the unemployment rate which is another way to say it's kind of coincident when you start to see degradation in the employment in the labor market and you start to see degradation in the stock market so this sort of belies our call that we think the market probably has legs through year in perhaps I still believe that we're going to correct this summer as liquidity cycle kind of adjust down in a negative manner but that doesn't necessarily mean this is the one that everyone's kind of should be positioning for to kind of you know press the new lows of the s p or this or that because I think what's more likely to happen and if we do correct this summer is a lot of bears are going to pile into the trade they can think you know shorting the top of the NASDAQ or whatever and ultimately they're going to get squeezed to the high evidence by the end of the year in my opinion yeah that's been that's been a tough trade and um and we are so so so let's talk about stocks a little bit so you you and and I and again going back you you were talking about this going into this period where you were going to get some positive flow but boy we saw especially through the FED uh you know through the FED commentary stocks just flying I mean if uh you look at some of the stats uh s p up three percent this week I think it's its best since March 26 off the low NASDAQ up four percent this week A lot of people are worrying is it just getting there too fast like is this just too fast and too narrow what is your sense since the FED may still be in play um even if it's a little bit even if it's not in July our our stocks just ignoring too much here no no so stocks are pricing in a very important Behavior Dynamic that you know I can certainly feel and sense and have discussions about with our institutional clients if you're a money manager particularly a long Only Money manager or you know that that you know benchmark to anything that has these types of companies in it you know the the large Mega cap tech companies in it you are severely underperforming here today almost by definition it's not even by choice it's just by almost by definition because the in the the returns have been so concentrated so what's happening is actually you're seeing a lot of fund managers actually YOLO calls in the same way that you know investors YOLO calls in GameStop and AMC back in early 2021 and what they're what's effectively happened in the markets this week and really throughout the month of May and into June here is that you know kind of gamma squeeze to the upside where dealers are being forced to chase with Hedges to the upside as investors are kind of you know investors who are underweight the market and also not positioned to the same degree in the things that the only things that are working are really fight for finding their um you know their only kind of the only way to get involved is kind of to YOLO calls and so one thing I'd say on that is that you know this is Opex today it's a pretty chunky Opex um bring a tube over at spot gamma call it out that this is a very call heavy Opex and historically speaking when you're ready to put heavy Opex in the Market's correcting that removal of the the hedging process tends to Mark the low in the market so the reverse is likely to be true here so I would not be you know too excited to chase stocks here you got overbought signals and things like the NASDAQ Mega cap growth Tech we had a bearish crowding signal on Tech uh this week we had a bearish crowding signal on the cues today this morning irrespective of the Opex uh call in terms of our crowding model so this is not a great spot to be putting on risk if we do correct over the next few you know couple of months if you know who knows how long it will last I think this will be um I think we'll know why and the reason we'll know why is because the markets are forward-looking a little bit and they've already priced in the dubbage FED for next next July for the July they're going to start to look ahead into uh into the September fed and realize that hey look this van ain't done inflation is probably going to be stickier than we're hoping it to be yeah you just you just give voice to a lot of what's been coming up so Andreas uh sat down with Jonathan Cohen to talk about uh Ai and Robotics investing and Jonathan expressed concern also about the reach for anything AI related let's have a listen to a clip from that how do you view diversification within AI as an investment theme sure uh so I think it's it makes sense to have some diversification but what matters the most is is to invest with conviction and so that when you have Corrections you feel comfortable enough to increase the position or at least to hold it um on I think the diversification is probably one of the reasons why you see some bubbles in AI you have probably people diversifying it with yeah and in an index an ETF or just by Googling uh or searching stocks with AI in the description on on buying them at valuations that have no sense based on the technology on Gross potential that's just a little snippet from buy side Meat sell side which airs on plus so if you're not an RV member or a plus member scan the QR code and join um is is this sort of also this sort of enthusiasm of people trying to segment out like what is real with the AI narrative we've been talking about this for two weeks but is that kind of contributing to what we're seeing happening in fact we have a question can it broaden out can the rally broaden out I think uh Burns is asking that it's unlikely to broaden out in a material way on a trending basis it could obviously broad now and it will you know it like if we rallied into year end it's probably not going to be a very broad rally because again you roll this clock forward six months in time we're probably going to be on the right on the doorstep of a recession if not you know slightly already entering one who knows uh you know I think in Q4 q1 that's kind of our modal expectation so expecting a rally to materially broaden out with that on the rise and it's usually is it tends not to be um it's not a high probability outcome if you're going to participate in this market here's how I would do it definitely don't buy it today I would wait for a correction a lot of signals have lined up in certain support of a correction our friends over at Longbow they have this doomsday dozen meter with a bunch of different indicators that um you know quantitative indicators that they put in there and it's like Max you know greed Max complacency on top of the the overbought signal the NASDAQ on top of our crowding a bearish crowding signal today in the queues this is not a good spot to be taking risks but if the Market's down I don't know eight to ten percent sometime this summer I would probably be buying that dip because again in the Institutional Investor Community is under hedged for right to tell risk risk Works in both directions particularly when you're investing a professional investor who's the kinds of you know going back to the buy side meets the sales side I've done that like 4 500 times in my career and that's what I do for a living yeah yeah these folks are under invested and under allocated to a market that's just leaving them behind and it's a real performance Chase its behavioral has nothing to do with the fundamentals or whether or not these AI names are sustainable or paying 40 times revenue for a company is going to be a good or bad idea it's just what do they need to do to make to sit and to maintain the seats that they're sitting in yeah that's fantastic so time frame matters with that and so does your risk uh your risk appetite and your ability with stance you have to be nimble if it's being driven by that kind of Behavioral because you're going to have to see the turn um when it comes uh question from George as we start to get close to the end is the TGA build still an issue going forward yes it's an issue but it's uh being dramatically offset by a significant decline in the RRP so we've seen the reverse people facility balance decline more than the TGA balances uh increase and as a function that's a function of yelling thoughtfully flooding the market with very short-term t-bills that are causing the yield on um on on on T on those Securities to be significantly higher than the rear Super Bowl rate and not the main you also have money market funds who are some of them are probably starting to believe that this is the end of the FED tightening cycle obviously we talked about how the terminal fed funds rate didn't budge at all this week and so if you believe that hey this is the end of the tightening cycle not saying all money microphones believe that but if you do believe that and you're now starting to see an attractive yields on a differential basis in terms of the carry then it does make a lot of sense to flood out of the RRP and suck up some of those t-bills and so that's what's happening right now and that's been supportive of the market how sustainable that is depends on how much how much more you know t-bills is yelling going to float the market with she always said that hey we're going to flood the market in June with t-bills the problem as it relates to you know the return of Uncle Sam the international Capital markets isn't this TGA thing that's been everyone's been so myopically focused on that since we told them to focus on that three months ago but what you should be focused on that going forward is the return of net coupon issuance because again we are running a record non-war non-um pandemic uh budget deficit here in the U.S non-war non-pandemic non-recession U.S budget deficit in the economy it's minus eight percent of GDP we're talking about as much fiscal large assets we saw at the height of the GFC right now on the booming economy fully employed economy and so as a function of that there's going to be just a ton of issuance both Bill and coupon and it's the coupon that matters because again the FED did not stop quantitative tightening and quantitative tightening has not been draining Bank Reserves since January it will start to join Bank Reserves again this summer yeah great stuff so we're gonna have to we're gonna have to stay on that um closing comment from uh Lena it's a tough Market yes it is uh and she said the trade that gave me some upside was Raul's Tesla suggestion two weeks ago um yes that that's been yeah exactly so good for you Lena for jumping on that uh that's it from us we had a question at the beginning before we even came on air Darius um from Colin saying what was each of our favorite summer Friday drink to get the weekend started uh I only have one summer Friday drink I was uh I've long been sponsored by Whispering Angel um not the hijacked the program but vocable points in my life so back when I used to do sidebar Sunday um I was I was their biggest customer and they were Bud light's biggest customer in the world which means I was probably but light's biggest customer that's back in like 2015 or like 2017. and then um when I was going to The Hamptons it's probably 2015 through like 2022. I would we would always buy cases of Rose every week I buy a case of whispering Angel every single week I'm like no one else drinks this stuff I drink the stuff like Kool-Aid so you know people have jumped on and joined you okay so we got Darius forever my answer was that uh Raul has dragged me over to the Cava side fabulous he had it with you last time and I was like damn that looks good so I went out and got myself a rose Cava but I finished it so I don't have one so now I am doing do not laugh at me people Fresca makes a mix I don't like these seltzers at all but I'm an old school Fresca Drinker before there's any alcohol in it and someone just sent this to me uh a picture of it I am not sponsored by Fresca they sent me a picture from the liquor store I was like oh my god look what I found so I bought them and they're good and they're low calorie and ABV so it's a good it's good oh there's a mixed pack Dara's highly recommend it it may pull you temporarily off your off your rose wagon we'll see we'll report back everyone but don't buy them out if you live by me because I'll be mad if I can't find them so don't tell anyone else uh listen everyone thanks for joining us it's an extended weekend here in the US for a lot of people so enjoy for all the dads out there Happy Father's Day and we will see you back here on Tuesday no Daily Briefing Monday because of the federal holiday we'll see you back here on Tuesday everybody take care and good luck out there cheers foreign [Music]

Channel: Real Vision

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Keywords: real vision finance, real vision tv, chinese, stocks, bitcoin, equity, equities, nasdaq, consumer sentiment, consumer prices, inflation, chinese tech, chinese tech stocks, china's tech crackdown, fed, federal reserve, the fed, taper, fed tapering, fed hikes, rate hikes, interest rates, bonds, treasuries, investing in bonds, raoul pal, 2023 markets, 2023 recession, 2023 inflation, realvision, ral pal, raoulpal, portfolio management, AMa Raoul Pal, Raoul Pal 2023, raul paul, raoul paul

Id: KikrfKVB06s

Length: 34min 14sec (2054 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 16 2023