The Start of the Active Period in the Hurricane Season...

thank you very much for joining me on this Tuesday I'm Brian Shields I want to get into the beginning of the active period of the hurricane season that does not mean we have a threat but I want to show you the areas that could develop and look at especially into next week but I want to start with this because again we have that chance of flooding the Leading Edge of a tropical wave trying to work its way into Trinidad and Tobago Northeastern sections of Venezuela close to Grenada Grenada later today and tonight we're going to see that rain chance picking up and we could have some isolated flooding here's the cloud cover brighter color showing the taller clouds and again in that we're going to have some substantial rain in some spots over toward Trinidad and Tobago in particular that's why I wanted to break this down first so watching out for the possibility of Street flooding even a little rise in some of the rivers today highest flood threat will still be in our Southern sections with that said all of us have at least the chance of isolated flooding as we go over the next couple days being mindful of that street flooding please keep me posted on what you get or don't get in the comments now uh just jumping into that forecast again a high 90 percent chance of wet weather at times today in Trinidad and Tobago 75 millimeters or three inches of rain or more in spots we could see upwards of 100 millimeters of rain or more today into tomorrow in some locations and that will lead to flooding and again staying kind of active 60 70 percent chance Wednesday and again in Thursday all right covering that you see that right there I'm going to get back to that and I want to get into the Eastern Pacific with that system that will be closer to California and Mexico more on that ahead but this here this is what's going on look at this Big Blob this is the biggest tropical wave of the season so far emerging from the coast of Africa now I want to start off by this some of the good news there's two waves out there Hurricane Center watching these but we've been watching this together over the last couple weeks but give me a heads up on this on this channel one right here this may not develop it doesn't look like it will so that's some good news but but this will help feed in some more moisture so will this into the Caribbean that could be a problem for next week I want to get to that in a moment I'm not trying to just tease ahead but just trying to cover things uh what's going on first here off the coast of Africa now this Big Blob if it does develop the early indications are that it would stay out to sea so that would also be some good news so yes there may be some development but in this region here no immediate threat so again you're going to hear a lot about the hurricane season getting more active it is that is accurate no doubt about it I was talking about that uh in my August forecast and that's coming true but a lot of dry air eating at this tropical wave here's the dry air and this orange shading and by the way this dry air here in the Eastern Caribbean that includes the Saharan dust air quality is lower today again a surge of Saharan dust has once again moved in watching that this Big Blob here again has a better chance of developing here's the chance of development I'll get into the Eastern Pacific in a moment this here very low chance but what this one will do is kind of set the stage for the tropical waves back behind it kind of push out some of that dry air and allow these to develop but as I mentioned this Big Blob here which looks threatening if it does develop early indications are that it would have a window to stay out to sea now let me break it down long term now I mentioned that first tropical wave that's weaker in that tropical wave that's moving through Trinidad and Tobago today both of those are going to draw on a lot of moisture into the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico all the models are showing increased rain here not all of them are showing development but I've been doing this many years several decades or at least a couple decades and again when you get a buildup of moisture a substantial one for a period of time in this area this time of year especially with the record warm water temperatures there is the possibility of some development here so nothing that's definitely going to happen but again this is a spot I want to give you the early heads up Western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico there is the potential of some development later next week just kind of giving you that early heads up I like to do that on this channel let you know everything I'm seeing out there so you could stay prepared so again I'm going to be watching that very closely so I'll be watching this spot and you can kind of say here here's the American model now almost all the American and European model pretty good agreement at this point so I'm just going to show you this Canadian model showing like eight bazillion things trying to develop that one's out to lunch but this has a pretty good handle on the situation as a whole same thing with the European model it's showing a lot of moisture here and the possibility of a spin up this is by late on Thursday now as you go out in time something may develop and try to work its way to the North and then another tropical wave is going to come off this weekend okay so some stuff trying to develop but staying out here that's a good thing but as I mentioned there's going to be a couple weaker tropical waves moving through the Caribbean and then that's going to leave some leftover moisture near Jamaica near Belize for example near Honduras we're going to see a buildup of moisture here the American model is showing that the European model is showing it as well American model has a little bit more but you can already see it here there's just a lot of moisture around by the time we get into next week this is next Tuesday so it's a week in advance but this has my attention because while everyone's looking out here right now I'm looking close to home because you know these water temperatures they are boiling if something spins up it can spin up rather quickly and you see it here again by the middle and end of next week a lot of moisture from the Bahamas down through Cuba Jamaica and then in this area even over toward the Gulf of Mexico something may try to develop so I'll be watching that and again more strong tropical waves way the heck out there so that's kind of the pattern that I'm seeing now now it is common to see these big waves move off this time of year August September and October 84 of name systems happen in just those three months the the bulk the the main part of the hurricane season is now and all the way through September and October so again we're just kind of getting started with that more active pattern but there are no immediate threats of development the more immediate concern is the potential of flooding in the Southeastern Caribbean that's why I led this video with that over toward Trinidad and Tobago also my friends in the Yucatan and Belize watching out for a flare-up of showers and storms some heavier rain Coastal sections of Costa Rica and watching that near Panama even Northwestern sections of Colombian watching our Islands out here as well watching out for some of the rain so again a little more active with scattered showers and storms around Southeastern Caribbean watching out for the possibility of flooding St Vincent the Grenadines Grenada we'll see the rain chance picking up again late today tonight into tomorrow dive into that into the when we get to the forecast but Florida back through the Bahamas and Cuba even the Cayman Islands Jamaica scattered showers and storms a little bit more over here and I'm going to break this down in just a second for Mexico and California I'll get into that in a moment as we get into the Eastern Pacific Now by tomorrow you still see look at this some rain around while it's not widespread we're going to have some rain today in Trinidad and Tobago we could have some rain tomorrow and it just kind of adds up you know how that goes and that's why I want to give you that advanced warning that while you may not be hearing a lot about it we could get that flooding because things stack up pretty quickly if you get a downpour today to downpour tomorrow that could definitely lead to some flooding in some spots and as we work forward into our Thursday forecast same thing a little bit of green around even Guyana and surname that rain chance has been picking up active over toward Costa Rica Panama and Central America scattered storms possible on Thursday right across Jamaica spotty storms Puerto Rico Haiti Dominican Republic now let's get out here here's why of course thinking of Hawaii as they continue with those recovery efforts after those historic and deadly wildfires most of the action staying down to the South Fernando will but this is the spot I'm watching over here again starting to flare up for that potential of development there's actually going to be a couple areas that may develop the main spot here that is going to run a little bit more parallel to the coast and then another spot May develop coming off of Costa Rica and Panama so very active on the Eastern Pacific side so watching this now running the computer models on this I was mentioning the American model was kind of taking this right into land yesterday right in the European model was even more out to sea as of now it looks like it's going to be right in between the European and the American model and that's why I look at all the models and the environmental conditions when I kind of when I do my best to let you know what's going to happen so using the American models pretty much on track now European model now is pretty much the same it is going to parallel the coast so my friends once again I didn't update I gotta I gotta update these names and shift them up to the north ignore the labeling all right Southwest Mexico I got to get to it I need a little to-do list Southwest Mexico as we work our way into the end of the week this is by by Thursday Wednesday night into Thursday we'll be right on the edge of tropical storm conditions of course higher Seas as this system starts to take shape now moving forward from Thursday into the upcoming weekend it doesn't look like this is just going to hook in up toward uh the uh just kind of up toward the Baja it looks like it'll get close but again it looks like it'll be a little bit more to the Northwest but with that said even over here there'll be that surge of moisture so the Gulf of California any fishing concerns shipping concerns boating interest seas are going to be building and we'll see a surge of moisture kind of that tail action on the east side as we work our way into the weekend so heads up as we get over toward the Gulf of California we're going to get some gustier winds that chance of rain heaviest action stays just offshore but that doesn't mean we're not going to see against some bands of rain and storms moving in and it may it may even feed up some moisture into Southwest United States over toward Southern California for example but again you see the core of this thing offshore and then at this point this is by late in the weekend and early next week cooler Waters so there's going to be a weakening but then there could be another system developing uh back behind that so again Fernandez out there Greg's out there uh no impacts to Hawaii I'll keep an eye on that Hillary that is the next name on the list on the Eastern Pacific side Irwin after that and by the way uh on the Atlantic side while there's no signs of a name system yet Emily is the next name on that list so Grenada for us today again on the edge of rain most of it has been to the southeast so far but rain chance picks up even tonight I showed you that again with that new tropical wave moving in Barbados the next few days a 30 to 40 percent chance 40 percent chance today of some scattered passing showers for my friends in St Lucia working our way into Saint Vincent the Grenadines again rain chance stays elevated most of it has been to the South or south east as of now but as that tropical wave moves in we'll see that that chance of some scattered showers around Jamaica isolated showers and storms you see by Thursday like I showed you on the tropical computer model we'll see a better chance of thunderstorms in Jamaica on Thursday some of us have been getting rain others still too dry Belize rain chance stays elevated a 50 to 60 percent chance over the next three days very active Western Caribbean into Central America Cayman Islands 40 percent chance of rain today 30 percent chance tomorrow a 60 percent chance today in the Bahamas Bahamas as a whole we've seen more in the way of scattered showers a little bit more active holding at a 40 percent chance the next three days Turks and Caicos a 30 percent chance today tomorrow in Guadalupe otherwise lots of sunshine and hot and again I mentioned that dust that has moved in watching that dust Dominica 30 to 40 percent chance of rain and storms over the next three days same thing in Martinique and again very hot watching out for the dust lower air quality Puerto Rico heat advisories in effect Fahrenheit he index upwards of 108 to about 110 for today it is going to be a very steamy day isolated storms in Puerto Rico same thing very hot yesterday U.S Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands rain chance remains limited 20 percent 40 to 50 percent chance of scattered storms in the Dominican Republic 40 to 50 percent chance as well Haiti as we work our way into tomorrow and Thursday watching out for some thunderstorms around Saint Kitts and Nevis 20 chance the next two days 30 percent chance on Thursday including Montserrat Antigua Barbuda rain chance stays limited yeah there could be a passing shower same thing in Anguilla but again the rain chance only 20 percent working our way towards St Martin say bus station St Bart's 20 to 30 percent chance over the next three days very limited again over toward Curacao 10 to 20 percent chance 10 to 20 percent chance in Aruba mainly dry and some of that dust working into Aruba Curacao Bonaire Guyana what I was talking about earlier again near Trinidad and Tobago rain chances higher isolated flooding a possibility even CERN up 40 to 50 percent chance but isolated areas of flooding working our way toward Venezuela 30 to 40 percent chance but again closer to Trinidad a higher chance of rain for today and again for for tomorrow in Costa Rica and Panama again areas of flooding will continue so taking you through it again Southeastern Caribbean that is kind of the immediate concern along with what is developing in the Eastern Pacific tropical wave number one a lot of dry air around it not expecting development in the short term but it could help add to the moisture in the Caribbean which could eventually give us the possibility of some development next week tropical wave number two does look like it'll develop early indications are it would stay out to sea and I'm watching closer to home I know again a lot of folks talking about Africa and these big waves coming off but again not taking my eye off the ball whatsoever we're going to see that buildup of moisture in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico next week I'll be watching out for any signs of a spin-up got you covered right here have a good rest of your day

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

Views: 146,580

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Id: H2j5gFmzg_Q

Length: 14min 4sec (844 seconds)

Published: Tue Aug 15 2023