The REAL Truth About a U.S. War with China

all right rejoining us is our good friend our man in Singapore Blake herzinger Blake is a navalist who contributes all over the place proceeding simsek he's very active on Twitter check him out at Blake herzinger and he's also a reservist so what we want to say up front is nothing that Blake says here represent the views of the Department of Defense so there we go so Blake before we get started with the discussion of current events and the politics in mainland China let's review the bidding of how Taiwan let's just call it was created because I think a lot in pop culture like Taiwan is this entity and we should defend it and so forth and so on and we don't really think of how we got here so real quick let me just review as I like to say this is a poor man's history of China and Taiwan so 1920s Communist party is at war with the kmt which is the quillman Tang or the Nationalist party this conflict is paused during World War II where the country is run by shine Kai-shek who is an ally of ours against the Japanese World War II ends and this conflict immediately kicks off again and we choose not to support Cheyenne kaishek because he's corrupt and he's wildly unpopular with most of the country because we didn't support Cheyenne kaishek he flees to what is known in 1949 as Formosa slash Taiwan so we kind of accelerated by our lack of support the Chinese Communist Party Mao's takeover of mainland China so the other thing to note right up front is China views this as a civil war that never ended they they view it not as a takeover of a Sovereign Nation but as a reunification of what was always part of China when Beijing looks at Taiwan they see an internal matter that has yet to be resolved it doesn't make anything they're doing right it doesn't make it uh correct or in accordance with the human rights um and and human decency that we would normally Accord another group of people but they view it in as entirely an internal matter a war that wasn't finished and and when we talk about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan if that were to take place Beijing is going to frame that as an internal action that's why you see Chinese media refer to things like the American Civil War when they talk about Taiwan because that was you know that was internal that was our federal government bringing the Confederate States of America back into alignment with the federal government so so that's how they would try to frame an invasion of Taiwan is that as an internal matter of forceful reunification and achievement of you know Mao's dream China and this happened particularly during the Nixon Administration used the United States as a wedge against Taiwan so basically in terms of our priorities Nixon Kissinger were more concerned about a nuclear China than they were about a sovereign Taiwan and the other thing to note during those years is Taiwan was a dictatorship it was not a global capitalist Free Nation so that happened in 1987 when Cheyenne kai-check's son took over and he started freeing up the economy and they became a center of silicone ship manufacturing and Tech and tourism and so forth and so on so suddenly this changes the calculus with respect to the United States's priorities the other thing that accelerated this concern was when Admiral Phil Davidson was testifying right before he he left Indo paycom he was asked by I forget which committee he was sitting in front of the Hask or the Sask um and and they they asked him okay how long until China will invade Taiwan not if but when and he said at the time and this is now what two two plus years ago he said it would be six years and so that statement was now or was coined at that time as the Davidson window Secretary of Defense Austin has said numerous times China is our pacing threat so Blake this brings us to the current events part of the conversation around this headline which is the U.S Air Force is pulling F-15 I guess C's I don't know if there's any e's in there out of kadena is Okinawa and so at a glance that seems to be like a withdrawal like we're pulling back this does create concern among those who watch the area and who are also wary of this imminent threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan so what's going on there yeah so so the Air Force has said they're going to pull two front line F-15 squadrons home from kadena as those aircraft become obsolescent as they're retired uh and that they'll be replaced by a rotational presence and there have been multiple aircraft mentioned you know f-22s f-35s and I believe the Japanese can at least semi-confirmed today that they believed it was going to be f-22s now there is some logic behind pulling things out of places like Okinawa and Japan I'm an advocate of for a forward presence I believe that strategy has paid off for us for decades but there is logic to pulling squadrons off of that front line and making it rotational or at least making it less predictable because we're facing an adversary that has you know the world's leading arsenal of short and medium range ballistic missiles we should expect that all of our major facilities in Japan to include in Okinawa are all zeroed um they know where everything is if you've flown out of kadena you'll know there's buildings all around where there are people constantly taking pictures of the Airfield what's happening there what's going on what aircraft are flying um that happens every day so we should entirely expect that those facilities uh are targets it would be targets at the outset of any PRC action against Taiwan if they believe that the United States is going to intervene um they would have to strike at U.S Assets in the region to prevent any kind of attempt to uh to head off the invasion of Taiwan now it's what it's all well and good to say we're going to replace it with a rotational presence um and if it works great if we don't lose capability fine that's how you want to do it do it um but I am reminded of you know the British uh Singapore strategy uh in the 30s in the lead up to the second world war when they knew or at least believe strongly that they would be fighting the Japanese and you know they selected Singapore as their forward base they uh they knew that they would have to Surge the fleet the Royal Navy into southeast Asia um you know build strength at Singapore and then fight their way up now Singapore as you know Fortress Singapore had to hold for a certain number of days for that to work while the fleet made it there um when the strategy was conceptualized you know we could say that was a month you know it was a month of steaming to get there by the time that they the writing was really on the wall that the Japanese were coming and the Royal Navy needed to be there the best they could do was three capital ships and four destroyers and one of those Capital ships an aircraft carrier ran aground in the Caribbean so what they ended up with in Singapore you know Fortress Singapore the jewel of uh the the empire in Asia they had a battleship a World War One era battle cruiser and four destroyers you know against the combined you know Imperial Japanese Navy and they didn't have any supporting air power to speak of they didn't have carrier Aviation and the Japanese did uh and I've I've worked in Singapore for a long time and I worked from the base where those ships uh set sail to go head off the Japanese invasion and they those ships never came back you know the Prince of Wales and the repulse were sunk by long-range Aviation by carrier Aviation uh because the Japanese were fighting the next War and the British were fighting the last one you know I see that Memorial all the time I still see it you know once a week when I'm up on that base and it's a stark reminder for you know strategies like this if you can execute it great but there are real perils to saying hey you know we will you know down the road we've we've earmarked forces to do that you know if you're not there when it matters then uh you know you've you've shot yourself in the foot off the bat this all leads to this conversation of the fact that Chinese have the biggest Navy on paper but ours is better right this is this General sense that they got more we got better so what do we think about that notion is that valid you know I believe that that works to an extent right but you know if you're reading modern Naval Theory right if you're reading um you know Fleet operations and that's tough I mean the things that they're teaching at the naval war College you know in the age of missile Warfare you need to shoot first and shoot best um and if you've got more Shooters you're probably going to win um and if you've got more Shooters after both sides have shot then you're definitely going to win so you know yes quality is great um quantity as they say has a quality all of its own uh and it would be nice if we had a bit more quantity and it seems like we're shrinking rather than growing and that's that's troubling and you know we've we've built a full class of combatant that wasn't outfitted with any kind of anti-ship missile you know we've we've fixed that now on the LCS we've added the the Naval Strike missile uh that's great you know at least we've got some kind of offensive power there um we'll see what we get from the constellation class but you know back to this rotational fighter presence you know I don't know what I think the benefit is necessarily to rotating because they won't go Winchester on ballistic missiles in the time that it takes to rotate a squadron there you know and if we have a squad in there we don't that missile threat will be there so really what I think we should be thinking of in terms of cheap options and practical options just like we should be in Guam you know we're building high-tech counter uh uh missile countermeasures or anti-missile systems you know we should be pouring concrete we should be building hardened shelters um because if we expect to fight you know from Okinawa from kadena you're expecting to fight from there for the duration right it's not nothing's going to change about what the Chinese can do to Okinawa um so I don't know that I see the logic I mean I understand it to a point but I don't think it gets all the way to the end of that problem right oh we have a rotational presence now well what problem did you solve because you'll still have to be on the ground in Okinawa if you expect to fight from there which obviously the Air Force does um so what's your plan for keeping those planes alive once you've rotated them there to Pivot back to the Chinese domestic political current events situation Xi Jinping was just re-elected for a unprecedented third term his predecessor was a reformer there were more freedoms there were more open markets they were growing the economy and now it looks as if XI is trying to consolidate power it's all about loyal loyalists there was this amazing scene from the Communist Party Congress where former president who was ushered out in a very public way reminded me of when tessio was taken out of the motorcade at the end of The Godfather and he turns to Tom Hayden and he says to Tom is there any way you can get me off the hook and Tom says can do it it sort of reminded me of that it was it was Eerie this is changing the calculus with respect to the idea that this could happen and we'll go over the timeline and some of the other predicates for this potential Invasion because it's it's not immediate but it could be considered imminent in the face of what it appears that XI is doing including statements that he made kind of you know make China Great again statements about hey we're going to take Taiwan back you know I mean that's reunification is one of my the main planks of of my third term so what are you seeing there because check me on this Singapore is within the first island chain right I mean you're right there on the front lines of this thing as you said the scars of what happened in World War II are still there and on the streets of Singapore so what what are you seeing and what's your perception of what all of this means with respect to the potential for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan so I think the region is understandably disquieted by what's happening in the PRC and you know following the Communist Party Congress you know markets took an absolute nosedive no one really liked what he was there to say and he didn't really care I think is the the big takeaway there he did he did show you know I'm done negotiating even internally you know these former clicks and groups that previously were included you know they were given some semblance of power or influence that's all gone and he's now surrounded himself by people who have absolute loyalty to him and who are not particularly politically promising so he has no Challenger at home I think it's pretty consistent language about around Taiwan you know the reunification has always been a goal of the PRC and they have always reserved the right to do that forcefully um and U.S policy has always been designed to adjust that calculus so they weren't ever sure if they could do it um could we pull this off before the United States stepped in and stopped us and you know when when Nixon and Kissinger opened up China when it happened you know there was absolutely no way you know up you know there were there were years where we were telling Chiang Kai-shek no you can't invade the mainland like no you cannot do that um and then it switched to you know we were vastly militarily superior to the PRC there was nothing they could do we were using them as a wedge against the Russians Xi Jinping is this outgrowth of a policy that he's built up a nationalism that he's created um about this Rejuvenation and this Chinese dream to restore what they feel was taken from them by the west and by Invaders and Taiwan features heavily in that because they feel like you know in things like the the third straights crisis when we sailed aircraft carriers right up to Taiwan and we kind of said hey you know you better knock it off and there's nothing the PRC could do and that's why they gotten this enabled building campaign you know they're building ships so fast that in Chinese they call it dropping dumplings into the soup right they've built a uh quiver of anti-ship ballistic missiles and Hypersonic weapons that they're developing and you know that's all a counter-reaction to what they saw as the United States holding them back uh and now Xi Jinping is saying you know we're here you will deal with me and you know I want what I want like I am this is a a real power now and and you know in this third term he's ensconced himself as a leader that China's not seen since Mao and in some ways he may fancy himself you know bigger than Mal he's going to achieve more than Mao did by finishing that war um now will they do it you know it's a war over Taiwan to reunify would likely to be so incredibly devastating to Taiwan and to the PRC and to the global economy you know they would really have to believe beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was no way to accomplish it peacefully and that's kind of how we've we've gotten to where we are is by restraining Taiwan from declaring independence or making too much noise and also holding the PRC back from thinking that they could do it so we've said hey look you don't need to go independent you can exist the way you are let China believe that someday you're gonna join them again you know one country two systems like Hong Kong did let them hold that illusion don't puncture it because once that's gone there's no reason for them to restrain themselves anymore once that's impossible and they recognize that it's impossible and conflict becomes a lot more likely so has G learned anything do we think from Putin's misstep in Ukraine what Xi Jinping probably has learned the most is you can insulate a regime against the types of non-kinetic weapons we might use against an invasion sanctions things like that you can store up food and gas and try and get your economy away from the dollar and away from U.S payment instruments but you know he's watching Putin's regime stagger along you know not doing great in a few more years like their oil exports will probably drop off a cliff um but they've been able to do it the United States did not intervene you know that's a note hey they didn't intervene Taiwan is not a U.S Ally neither is Ukraine um and that's you know some U.S policy that's on the table the Taiwan Act is actually looking at uh treating Taiwan as a major non-nato Ally that would be a major adjustment in formal U.S policy um now he's probably also learned hey look once they can see that you're ready to go um you know that's kind of it you know like we talk about a lot we'll see a Chinese Invasion coming you know we saw the Russian invasion coming for months and we told the ukrainians and we told the world this is going to happen because you can see it you know you have to move people you know beans bullets and Benzene you have to move tanks it all has to be staged up and it has to be on on the line of departure ready to go when you invade something so when China does something like that if they were to move the plan into position and bring tens of thousands of troops to the shore hey this is going to happen you know and that takes time Roger that and and that's a nice segue into what those what that timeline would look like uh with respect to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan John Culver at the Carnegie Endowment for peace wrote this really definitive white paper so talk to us about what Culver writes in terms of a timeline Culver starts at about 24 months out and he he's he's projecting that that far out an invasion of Taiwan would require she and the CCP to take observable action to harden the State against um counteracts um U.S pressure U.S intervention so all things from the military and key Industries to the economy um to Reliance on the dollar so you're going to see things like um withdrawing from U.S led instruments or at least diversifying ways to pay money and move it around um you're going to see an increase in things like State propaganda against the West preparing the Chinese people for a long struggle there are a lot of only children in the PRC and in a war means there's a lot of families that are finished you know you are ending a lot of Bloodlines there and that's an actual consideration for a state that had a one child policy for so long you know are they going to send their only child to die um and that's a that's a hanging chat I think for for the pla how will real Combat deaths play at home um so they have to get ahead of that and try and make this glorious reunification something worth sending your only boy to um once you get out to you know a year to six months out then you're talking about restricting uh separations from the pla you know a stop loss like we saw in Iraq um you cannot leave service you know we are we are no longer demobilizing units we're not letting conscripts go home and now they've done that before in 2007. but you would see it again and that you know some of these we see it on occasion and we do see a slow steady effort by China to reduce Reliance on the United States and it's decoupling that is very popular to talk about in the US is also happening in the PRC um you know there'll be other economic indicators you know asset freezes and then once you get really close six three to six months you're talking about um emergency supplies medicine stockpiles you know fuel grain rice you know food stuffs those kinds of things and then you're gonna see you know maybe those yearly training events go away as we turn in you know the pla focuses on maintenance more right now more Readiness um you know hey the yearly exercise is off go Grease the treads on your tank because we're we're going in six months um you're going to see um serious investment in the Navy you know real Readiness things going on battery replacement on non-nuclear submarines missile loading preparation shipment of torpedoes Etc where they need to be um and you're going to see forces moving to the coast right so you know there's going to be things flowing towards uh the Taiwan Strait so there's a lot of things here that we would see you know this is a you know as closed as China is becoming under Xi Jinping we would still be able to see a lot of this happen the pla is going to be on alert you know you're not going home for the wedding you're staying here um they're going to tighten up the the great firewall you know things like that and yeah like this Mass mobilization and and I think that ties back to what you mentioned you know what did they learn from the Russians War you can't do it on the cheap right you cannot if you want to do a special military operation to take Crimea that's one thing and that trick works once right you cannot do a special military operation to topple a national government um and I think that really bit Vladimir Putin is that he tried to do it on the cheap without immobilization without being really ready and when he got stuffed now he's got this foundering military with most of his best units dead or broken and he's trying to stuff reservists with 10 days training in to fill that Gap so I think probably one of the things that the pla in the central military commission have taken away is that hey if we're going to do it it's not a special military operation it has to go like there's nothing to be gained by half measures there's nothing to be gained by trying to do a surgical operation like this will be massive Brute Force because if they fail you know that's probably the end of the Communist party if they try and fail China would fall apart you know faith in the party will be done it'll be it'll be broken permanently they'll have tried to hang their hat on this nail that wasn't there and uh and his regime will fall apart so it's really a make or break moment if they choose to go down that road and when you say if they fail China will fall apart it does sound a lot like what people are saying is going to happen in Russia as a consequence of Putin failing in Ukraine that this is the beginning of the end of Putin's tenure as president I mean we'll see how that plays out the other thing we forget is and I I heard a previous CNO say this which is my driving threat is also a major shareholder in Fortune 500 companies right Universal Studios go into your closet and and pull out a tie and tell me where it's made so globalization is a punch line in on one side of the aisle but it's also a reality you know we see when uh container ship gets clogged up in the Suez the where those ripples go all of a sudden you can't get lawn furniture at Home Depot or whatever you know so as you've already said Jing's opening statement with the party Congress sent markets tumbling that that can't be good for him you know and this is where even the the hard line loyalists you're like oh geez my net worth just went way down you know thanks bro you know and so this is a this is something he has to be cognizant of and if it's all about we're just going to do it and whatever happens happens we're gonna break it because it needs to be broken it seems to be really I mean Reckless just sounds kind of true we all are trite but it is it would be potentially Reckless this doesn't mean he's not going to do it but yeah you know when you look at it again we're trying to do like sober analysis here and not play into this hysteria which to be cynical I think um the defense industry loves the idea of a imminent threat right they were hating the G watt because it was just about mraps and body armor and we weren't making gigantic things anymore and that's where that pacific pivot took place you know and and so suddenly it's like no we need conventional Hardware we need the new class of frigates we need missile Shooters because of our VLS cells as representative luria points out we need Subs we need the best and the brightest Subs so we got to be all in on that and that's just on the Navy side right what are we doing with B21 and every branch of service has their own uh Logic for why they need this thing and the defense budget is 800 billion and growing and you know people can look at you with a straight face and go that's already not enough you know although I saw almost every this morning sort of describing the fact that our defense budget is greater than China's and Russia's put together um so that is what it is depends if you believe China's numbers I think but you know there's two of this that I do want to that I want to touch on you know the Davidson window is is like you mentioned it's it's become just this buzzword like it's a fact right it's a thing um and I like when he made the comments I was you know it was sort of like well you're on the way out it's easy to say if you're into paycom on the way out right right what's the context what are you saying and I in two Admiral Davidson's credit the Nuance in what he said was their capability could be there as soon as 2027. as you know he's watching relatively waning U.S power relatively growing Chinese power and the point at which the biggest Delta is there and China has the capability to do it is you know in his mind was 2027. does that represent intent because obviously we know for it to be um really credible you know you have to have the capability and the intent to have a real threat that we need to plan against I mean we still have to plan for it but yeah just because I can do something you know we could nuke Kazakhstan doesn't mean we're going to doesn't mean they need to plan for it because we don't intend to um do they intend to violently invade Taiwan by 2027 I I think that's very iffy um so the Davidson window I think has been wildly distorted by people like you mentioned who are happy to use that as justification for more f-35s um and then the pacing threat you know we kind of we've danced around that one a couple of times that's what I find really interesting because yeah we do have an immense defense budget uh we spend a lot but China's not pacing us like they are if if this is an arms race we are way behind you know there is only one state racing and it's the PRC we are watching we are on the sideline like we're not even in that race we are watching them build you know a dozen combatants a year and we're struggling to get you know can we get two ddgs in maybe you know that's that's where we are so I find every time I hear pacing threat I laugh because what pace are you talking about like do we think we're moving as fast as they are because we're not um is their gear as good as ours maybe not everywhere probably not everywhere but they're getting better and they're building a lot of it you know is our gear changing no because we keep building high dollar vaporware that comes to nothing you know we we give Boeing a few billion dollars to build an unmanned submarine that doesn't work oh surprise the company that's never built an unmanned submarine I couldn't actually build one but now we've paid him for it so too bad why don't we build another three magic you know giant destroyers with railguns that we'll never finish um you know who who turned off the Zumwalt program when they realized hey this doesn't actually make sense we're building something to support Hardware we don't have you know and this is the story of so many very large procurement programs you know the PRC doesn't build things like that they build iterative designs they build a few of a destroyer like oh this could be better and then they built a few more and then they build a few more and then they build a few more um and they have a very modern Navy and I mean their ships are half the age if that than ours on on balance I mean it's incredible so pacing threat is a bit of a joke I think as a term so I think I'm going to change the title of this episode to the enemy is us and that's the Constitutional procurement system so Blake always great to get your analysis beaming in from 12 hours in the future I know it's late there so thank you for the time and we look forward to having you on the channel again very soon it was a pleasure Ward thanks for having me and uh you know the second of November was a beautiful day here so uh rest easy everyone in the world has not ended and enjoy your your to November good to know thanks buddy we'll talk again soon see what all right that'll do it for this episode if you're a first time viewer hit the button and ring the bell so you don't miss anything remember it's the holidays so check our links below for channel merge our t-shirts make a great stocking stuffer and if you'd like to help support the Channel please consider using the super thanks the heart icon below or become a patron at patreon.com Ward Carroll and in the meantime I look forward to seeing you again very soon foreign [Music] [Applause] [Music]

Channel: Ward Carroll

Views: 386,609

Keywords: Ward Carroll, China, war with China, Xi Jingping, CCP, U.S. Navy, DDG 1000, military history, Top Gun, DCS World

Id: XTDeKtcB_Gc

Length: 31min 40sec (1900 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 03 2022