The Rarest Item in TF2

there's a couple of angles to this question that you could take the first being the item that has the fewest copies in existence or the other the item that has the statistically lowest chances of occurring the former angle proves incredibly boring because there are a metric fob ton of so-called one of one hats you could pick out any of those and it would be roughly one out of 11 and a half billion items but this doesn't make for interesting content not that people care these days so let's use the other definition of rarest the item that has the statistically lowest chances of being brought into existence let's start small with a fan favorite that I'm sure many think is extremely rare the ever so desired golden frying pan Which is the rarest item reward drop in TF2 you know reward drops being items from Man vs machine or other in-game activities like completing in-game contracts during active campaigns give me my bucks back when you know valve updated the game instead of giving us this digressing from my lament over better days gone by the chances of a golden pan drop are fairly ambiguous with the only reliable odds calculated by a spreadsheet posted back in 2014. my God according to this a golden frying pan has a drop rate of about 0.0051 a roughly 1 out of 20 000 chance do note that this spreadsheet is very out of date it would be interesting to see it updated by someone with easy access to item data since the pan drop rate has likely changed over time given the frequency at which they occur but for now I will just stick with the available data okay yeah golden frying pans are indeed very rare but they're not all that rare because hell even I got one let's talk about unusuals more specifically the odds of crates and cases every time you open a crate you have a roughly 0.66 chance of receiving an unusual item about a one out of 151 chance small potatoes really in comparison to the golden pan but unusuals can also be strange typically items have a roughly 10 chance of being strange upon unboxing from certain cases and crates mind you so a strange unusual is 10 times more rare than a regular unusual or a roughly 1 out of 1510 chance we're getting up there but we're still an order of magnitude more common than the golden pan so what about graded unusuals from newer TF go cases sadly no official odds for TF2 item grades exist valve was never required to release them by law unlike with cs go you know China number one however thanks to observed item counts Mass unboxing statistics and the extremely high likelihood that valve simply ported over csgo's odds into TF2 back in 2015 these are the odds for each item grade roughly speaking so oh the chances of receiving a strange unusual Elite grade hat are about a one out of 189 000 chance I think CJ got one unfortunately it's a shish hat with a shish effect but hey hitting that dice roll is pretty cool that hat is about 12 times as rare as a golden frying pan again crazy odds but it's such a shame he got such a terrible fun hat I'm so sorry dude God but you know what we have one more layer skins that is decorated weapons and War paints which can also be unboxed as strange unusual Elite grade like CS go TF2 skins also have where of which battle scarred not Factory new is the rarest with a roughly 9.3 percent chance of dropping so the chances of receiving a strange unusual Elite grade battle scarred skin or about a one in two million chance and what's really cool about this from what I can find at least one of these skins does exist a strange unusual battle scarred misfortunate war paint we have found the statistically rarest item you can unbox in TF2 the item quality that is the least likely to come into existence but item qualities are still very general because there are many potential strange unusual Elite grade battle scarred skins that are possible so this is not the specific answer to what is the rarest item in TF2 for that we need to open the floodgates to Nuance a little bit a variety of TF2 skins host a wide range of rare patterns rare colors rare stickers so on and so forth unfortunately much like the odds of crates and cases the odds for these patterns and stickers are also incredibly vague and there are no official statistics so please do take the following with a little grain of salt as an example just to warm you up to the idea the balloonicorn sniper rifle from the Pyro land collection has different eye stickers the rarest of these stickers is an X with apparently a one percent chance of occurring this rifle is also an assassin grade skin with a roughly 3.2 percent chance of dropping it can also be battle scarred and strange and unusual there are four possible assassin grade skins from this collection and three possible unusual effects picking hot which is the most fitting the odds for a strange hot battle scarred balloonicorn sniper rifle with X eyes are a roughly one out of 611 million chance appla by far the rarest item I've shown you thus far but not the rarest possible item in Team Fortress 2. this is the macaw masked war paint which comes in a variety of colors these colors are randomly selected using a 205 by 205 pixel tile on a 2048 by 2048 gradient texture assuming this square is shifted pixel for Pixel and also noting that this gradient texture repeats itself seamlessly there are four million 194 304 possible color choices when a macaw mask pattern is generated it selects two of these choices and macaw masked gems are patterns that primarily boast a single color meaning that the same color must be selected twice and you may have caught that little white square roughly 185 by 185 pixels making white the rarest possible color meaning a Max white gym that is a macaw masked warpaint that exhibits the maximum possible amount of white requires you to land a one out of 4.2 million dice roll twice astronomically low odds of uh one out of 17 trillion 592 billion 186 million 44 416. oh God at this point factoring in wear strange unusual what have you really doesn't matter anymore statistically but of course for the sake of completion and to go the extra mile to make sure that we do indeed find the rarest item in the game the odds for the max white gem strange cool battle scarred macaw mask war paint oh God uh how do you say this uh that's quintillion right okay yeah quintillion one out of 16 quintillion 449 quadrillion 210 trillion 667 billion 293 million 810 10 000 chance this is the rarest item in Team Fortress 2 which will never be unboxed my God okay so I realized something as I sat down to finish editing this video that I didn't give away for you guys to really perceive just how ridiculous these odds are it's incredibly difficult to attach a number as large as this to something physical or tangible that we can like understand so in an attempt to do that let's try to relate this number to something that we are all subject to and that is the inevitable progression of time let's say you decide to open let's see let's say you decide to open one case per second how long would it take for you to open the minimum number of cases required to maybe get the rarest item in the game there are 31 million 530 31 million 536 000 seconds per year so dividing roughly 16 quintillion by that number I have to use Matlab tab here because I cannot do that form of division in my head yeah it would take 521 billion years to do that Earth is only 4.65 billion years old and so is our sun and the Sun goes extinct at a lifespan of 10 billion years so the sun's gonna go extinct long before uh this is ever gonna get unboxed don't don't try but hey that's it you now know the rarest item in Team Fortress 2. what can you do with this information Jack [ __ ] Shish and uh yeah that's about it thank you all for watching and an extra special sloppy thank you to all of my lovely patrons you guys make these videos possible and I really cannot thank you enough for all of your generous support it is it is infinitely appreciated so thank you so much from the bottom of my heart really so peace out guys and uh I'll see you next time don't open boxes kids don't do it The House Always Wins don't [ __ ] [Music] everything anymore [Music]

Channel: Zesty Jesus

Views: 145,856

Keywords: tf2, team fortress 2, unusual, rare items, rare, item, zesty jesus, zesty, jesus, unbox, rate, skins, decorated weapons, warpaints, CSGO, case opening, valve

Id: ydQ6FbpFSjk

Length: 10min 11sec (611 seconds)

Published: Wed Nov 16 2022