The painful F1 dilemma now facing Carlos Sainz

the gambles not paid off and now Carlos signs has an unexpected choice to make for his Formula 1 future picking between two options with big downsides since finding out he would lose his Ferrari seat at the end of 2024 to Lewis Hamilton science has been biding his time while many driver Market rumors swirled around him his patience stemmed from the hope that a Red Bull or Mercedes seat would become a serious option rather than a long shot but that's not happened and now signs must face up to a very unfortunate reality he's got to take a big backward step Red Bull set to resign Sergio Perez as we make this video we understand the decisions being made to keep him and it's just a matter of thrashing out contract details that's despite Perez's form dipping of late which the signs Camp had hoped might help Reed realize it needs a better teammate for Max for stappen unfortunately for signs the competitive picture doesn't Trump Red Bull's concern about the tensions that existed when he was teammates with ven at Toro Roso regardless of signs and ven them sales getting on well Red Bull doesn't want their fathers in the same place again as that is where the primary Tor Roso issues stemmed from it also doesn't help that signs is quick enough to make life a little too uncomfortable for theen but Red Bull won't publicly admit that so it's a no from Red Bull and Mercedes stopped being a realistic option recently as well Mercedes is very keen to promote its young Formula 2 prote Kimmy Antonelli straight into the works team next season and as Antonelli is under contract Mercedes does not need to stress making that decision this means potentially waiting until deeper into the year to commit and signs is quite rightly not willing to wait that long to find out if Mercedes has a place for him especially as it would only be for one season because by then it's highly likely his fallback options will all have disappeared too we also learned recently that Mercedes Outlook had gone down poorly within the science family which felt that Carlos deserved to be taken more seriously as a prospect and a medium to long-term Prospect at that and not expected to just wait around with redel opting against signs and Mercedes effectively timing itself out of the equation it's decision time for Carlos and unfortunately what's left is not befitting a driver of his quality at all signs his choice of where to go is more complicated than it should have been once it boiled down to this it was expected by almost everybody that SS would join the AI project at salber should his bid to hold out for a possible top seat Pro futile and he still might end up there but there's another credible candidate in the mix Williams's pursuit of signs is not the sudden development it was made out to be when reports emerged in Monaco of advanced negotiations between the two parties it's already been months in the making we've previously reported that Williams had outlined its long-term plans to signs a while ago and continued to make compelling pitches but we must admit Williams was always framed as a wild card it felt like due diligence from signs's management along with speaking to the Rena Works team Alpine and and even H the only option not on the table is RB despite its competitiveness because SS has no interest in going back to the Red Bull junior team now Williams has emerged as more than just scoping out all options and team boss James vs is a big reason why he's already been key to resigning Alex Alburn on a multi-year deal and is why Beyond a lot of coverage of the extraordinary details of its awful 2024 Williams is escaping much criticism despite performing worse than 12 months ago for now Val is getting the benefit of the doubt that's partly because of the long-term malays he's trying to permanently rescue Williams from and the many problems the team is known to have from its facilities through to its culture but also because he speaks well owns the team's problems and has clear ideas for solutions that might eventually amount to nothing more than talking a good game but albin's giving this Williams era time to back it up with action and clearly signs is impressed enough for discussions to have gone as far as they have negotiations are believed to have even evolved to the point of offer and counter offer with Williams coming up with something considered satisfactory by signs this is important for two reasons first to sign a driver it's obviously crucial to present a deal that they are willing to accept but second it shows signs that Williams is serious about him and has the resources to back that up hence the complication if it was just Audi in the picture then SS would be dealing with one single clear fallback instead it looks like there's a not so simple choice to make the Saba Audi argument is obvious it'll become a Works team Audi has succeeded everywhere it's competed in Motorsport and signs can Bank a long-term well-paid contract with a top manufacturer that could also lead to other interesting opportunities in the future the fact the team is saber is hardly ideal though and it just had an absolutely stinking Monaco weekend that didn't improve its case sa was now the only pointless team in F1 after Williams and albon finished 9th if it's an awkward time for that contrast in team performance and results plus Audi has just enough uncertainty about it as a new engine manufacture that the argument isn't overwhelmingly compelling hence Williams being in the picture it's not just about recent results and short-term Prospect science is working out what the best fit is for him he wants a race-winning car and he can't get one immediately so it becomes about other factors belief in a project the right environment and a commitment of suitable duration the arguments for both Audi and Williams are largely dependent on hypothetical progress the two teams potential trajectories are encouraging and Ali's ceiling as a Works project is higher than Williams's but both teams are mired in problems Sciences choice will depend on his gut feeling what fits him best now and for the period he's willing to be locked into what will one way or another be a marriage of convenience Ali's Keen to lock signs down for the long term probably around 3 years is Williams could offer more flexibility allowing him to leave for 2027 for example if seats open up elsewhere once the pecking order in the new 2026 rules era becomes clear it depends what signs wants and we'll know soon enough he's waiting for the door to Red Bull to be absolutely 100% closed before he decides so once the Perez deal is absolutely official and done the final cases for Ali and Williams will be presented to signs and then he's expected to decide very very swiftly what sence chooses to do has knock on effects for several other drivers with one in particular relegated from being First Choice at a couple of teams by signs's position of the drivers who have yet to secure a place on the 2025 grid VRI botas is the most successful in terms of Victories while the 10 time Grand Prix Winner's market value has dropped since his Mercedes years he appears to be well placed to land a seat somewhere chances are that will not be with his current team salba while remains in contention for that Audi seat the fact it's already signed Nico hulkenberg and has made signs its top Target shows how it views botas what's clear is that botas is in contention for multiple seats Williams H and Alpine are all other possibilities despite some rumors after the IMA weekend a couple of races ago that he had already signed for Williams the reality is botas is yet to put pen to paper that team's pursuit of signs explains why while botas might seem a boring choice and doesn't seem to be top of anyone shopping list there are plenty of good reasons to sign him at 34 he still has plenty of years in F1 left in him and considering the lack of competitiveness of the Saba he's been driving well this season but for Saba's various troubles he could have finished in the points in Australia Japan and China botas also brings significant experience and knoow not just of how Mercedes worked in the Glory Days but also what he's learned since moving to salba and he's shown he works well commercially both as the more individualistic character he's presented in recent times and in the more straight laced corporate world of Mercedes that's why there's every chance botas will be in F1 for a 14th season next year he's not the most in demand driver so he doesn't seem to be in a position to completely dictate his future but he should slot in somewhere once signs kicks off a chain reaction botas and estban okon are the most likely movers after signs but there's also Yuki sonoda to consider as we explained in our video outlining the Perez Red Bull situation has got no serious long-term Rebel future so his management is looking at Alternatives sonoda is believed to have been touted to Alpine and to be a serious interest to H which seems a more likely Prospect for a move sonoda's end goal in F1 is probably a Honda backed Aston martinc that doesn't look immediately available but could open up in 2027 or 2028 it would be a big long-term play to commit to but if so keeping himself in the game is vital so this is the bottom line whoever signs picks it's then botas versus Aon versus probably Coda for seats of either Williams or salba plus h and Alpine okon's not going to stay with the Renault team his Bridge seems to be burned there especially after his Monaco lunge on teammate Pierre gazley who is set to be retained so aon's looking at either has which there have been conversations with or maybe whichever of saber and Williams signs eventually snubs botas is in play everywhere but how much Choice he has depends on whether Coda really becomes available or not there's room for all these drivers to find a on the 2025 grid but where they end up is still very uncertain

Channel: THE RACE

Views: 324,620

Keywords: f1, formula 1, formula one, F1 news, F1 latest, F1 updates, F1 explained, The Race, the-race.com, grand prix, f1 2024

Id: x3B2wKzDJJc

Length: 9min 44sec (584 seconds)

Published: Sat Jun 01 2024