The next stage of the war in Ukraine: Analyzing Kyiv’s strategy | DW News

the battle for bakmut in eastern Ukraine has had Ukrainian and Russian forces locked for more than eight months in a bloody stalemate thousands of lives have been lost with soldiers engaging in trench warfare resembling the battles seen in World War One after months of barely any movement the UK Ministry of Defense says that last week that Russia has re-energized its assault this just as Ukraine is expected to launch a long-awaited spring counter-offensive this is what months of fighting has done to bakmud in recent days more neighborhoods in the embattled city have fallen to Russia according to Moscow it claims most of bakmut is under its control for the war around 70 000 people lived here a mining Hub strategically located in Eastern Ukraine it's believed there are only 3 000 residents now the head of Russia's private mercenary Wagner group has called bakmud a meat grinder Ukrainian forces have described quote unprecedented bloody battles but both Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy losses thousands of soldiers have died in the more than nine months at the Battle for bakmut has raged Moscow has been resupplying its front lines as fast as they lose people but both sides are refusing to back down for the Kremlin the capture of Bak mood would provide a long-awaited battlefield Victory a symbolic show of strength it could also open up the way for a Russian Advance towards major Ukrainian cities in the region sloviansk and kramatorsk and in turn control of the entire Donetsk area Ukrainian President Vladimir zelenski has repeatedly said Ukraine will continue to hold bakmut for now it appears the months-long stalemate Remains the longest and bloodiest battle in Russia's war in Ukraine and it shows little sign of changing we're joined Now by Ben Hodges he's a former Commanding General of U.S forces in Europe and he's a long time and close Watcher of the war who's spoken to us on DW many times thanks very much for for coming in to to the studio uh General Hodges so we've just seen where things stand in bakmud at the moment like you know with all of your military experience when you look at how the battle there has kind of descended into you know people talk about these comparisons with the first world war were you surprised by that that it degenerated into this this kind of grim picture of warfare uh the part that surprises me is how the Russians have continued to feed people into this meat grinder that doesn't seem to have obvious strategic importance or even operational importance for them Bachman is important not because it's Bak moot but because it has allowed Ukrainian general staff to buy time to prepare for their counter-offensive which I think comes in a month or two so the Russians have obliged them by continuing to push troops into it and ukrainians I think realized months ago that they could probably stop them without having to divert the armored forces that they need for their counter-offensive so when you can step back from it don't think about what's happening on each of these terrible streets this destruction that we watch every day step back from it it's actually a good thing for the Ukrainian general staff that they have been able to stop Russian forces there but the Ukrainian side also is said to have lost a lot of people there I mean this is you know this this kind of technical word uses sort of attrition yeah but these are people they've lost people there as well you feel that from a kind of planning purposes the the that was an acceptable loss well again if you if you keep your eye on what's what's at stake here Ukraine is fighting for its life and I think the Ukrainian general staff knows that Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war that Ukraine will never be safe or secure as long as Russia occupies Crimea Ukraine will never be able to rebuild its economy as long as Russia occupies Crimea and can block access to as I've seen all the ports on the Black Sea so Ukrainian general staff has figured out they have got to get Crimea and I think they they intend to get it this year in order to get it you have to isolate it first and then bring up long-range Precision capability that can hit Sebastopol the air base at Saki the logistics Hub at gencoi and other facilities on the Crimean Peninsula to make it untenable you could kill every Russian soldier within 200 kilometers of back mode that would not change the Strategic situation but you liberate Crimea that changes everything and so I think the general staff realize that they were able to I mean nine months the Russians are still not captured back mode nine months um and I think the general staff figured that out and so like okay we're going to put what we have to here so that in the long run we're able to achieve the decisive effect the end of this war so that's a long answer to your question is it acceptable of course every life matters these are humans but these are soldiers this is the nature of war and they are there doing a task that will lead to a decisive outcome for Ukraine so let's now kind of connect these things yeah so you say that Crimea is really the ultimate objective as you said we're expecting this counter-offensive to begin in the next month or two you said what do you anticipate what are the steps if Crimea is the goal what are the steps that Ukraine you expect them to take in the early days of that offensive so um it you know it has been referred to as a spring offensive for for months I don't know why people call it the spring offensive I don't think it was ever going to be a spring offensive because the ground is still mud and and if if you're launching an armored attack you would like to have the best possible conditions obviously for for traffic ability and plus the general staff also needed time to to train to prepare these armored brigades I think they have a lot more armor brigades than than we know um the Ukrainian general staff does a good job of protecting information better than we do obviously um they have a lot of their own tanks and armored vehicles plus what they've captured from the Russians and now plus what we the West have been providing the from the German the German bundes Fair the UK the US and so on they have been training and practicing how to penetrate Russian defenses trench lines obstacles minefields the so-called Dragon's Teeth all of that so I think when they're ready when the conditions are set that's traffic ability training Logistics in place everything's in place then they'll pick they will pick one two or three places of this 900 kilometer front they're going to pick two or three places in Mass overwhelming combat power to penetrate to get all the way to as I've seen to break the so-called land bridge that connects Crimea to the rest of Russia I think they'll leave the Kirch Bridge up for a while so that Russians who want to leave can leave but then at some point of course when this is all done they'll drop that bridge but for now what's important is to isolate it by breaking the land bridge that I think is the objective of this counter-offensive now what does it look like it will be what we call combined arms tanks mechanized Infantry Engineers that are necessary to clear the path uh artillery that's able to move and focus to protect this penetration which may only be 10 or 20 kilometers wide and um the Ukrainian Air Force which of course has been severely outnumbered from the beginning but yet the Russians have never been able to get air superiority which is I think a reflection not on on math but on their professional capability so I anticipate that Ukrainian Air Force will play a key role over the next several weeks going after Russian Artillery headquarters air defense systems to help enable this attack so this will be a joint combined attack focus on a narrow point that will penetrate and then um they'll develop it based on where where they have success they'll reinforce success and I mean you talk about penetrating talk about like the kind of defenses that the Russians will have because the Russians have had time also to kind of dig in to create defensive lines um we've seen this sort of notion of trench warfare they're also defensive like it describe the kind of defenses the the ukrainians will need to get past and how they will need to do that so uh like you and all of your viewers have been watching these videos of these trenches you see pictures satellite imagery of trenches and Dragon's Teeth and all that so uh I don't want to be dismissive of that it will be physically hard and dangerous and it's in depth so potentially depending on where the ukrainians choose to attack of course they've got to cross the nepro river which is another reason when you would like to make that as easy as possible or um in terms of timing um got across the river and and then they're going to encounter minefields the Dragon's Teeth which are these concrete sort of pyramid-shaped obstacles and then there'll be trenches and with Russian troops in these trenches with old tanks old any tank weapons that have been brought up that can still shoot they don't have to move they can still shoot so there will be a thick set of defenses that ukrainians will have to penetrate and it'll be two or three layers like that and of course the Russians if they're professional enough they will have planned artillery to hit when Ukrainian forces do attack so that's that's what the ukrainians have to go through clearly they have good Intelligence on what's out there I mean you can see it none of this is concealed so they will have made uh I would expect they will have made models of all of this and everybody will be practicing their part they've been doing it for months they'll be doing it for months now you say so the goal is then to get to the Sea of Azeroth yeah so across from Crimea um from that point I mean there are various different opinions about you know the role of Crimea you know there are concerns that if you know in some quarters that if uh Ukraine mounts a real uh assault on Crimea that this is one of the moments where Putin potentially draws the nuclear card um what's your view on that and what you know what would be their you know if they get to that stage see a vasov what do they do next or is that a point where you start to negotiate is that a point where you feel like okay you've got Vladimir Putin in a place where he's weakened enough that you feel that Ukraine has a strong enough hand to negotiate talk me through a little bit of the scenarios and what you would expect so uh I will Ukraine will never be safe or secure as long as Russia occupies Crimea they will always be able to launch the next attack whether it's in two three four years so any any negotiation that leaves Russia in control of Crimea automatically Russia has a huge advantage of the Black Sea Fleet still singing the sevastopol um the Air Force operating from there the logistics operating from there so from a security standpoint they have to get Crimea from an economic standpoint you know Ukraine's economy is based on exporting Grain on rare earth materials so even if uh bear Dansk and mariopo the two big ports on on the as I've sea were liberated or the Russians left them gave them back as part of a negotiation ukrainians would never be able to do anything with it because Crimea still blocks access in and out of as I've seen and then of course Odessa is only 300 kilometers straight line distance from sevastopol so easy for the Russian Black Sea Fleet to continue to interdict traffic Commerce whenever they want to just like they're doing right now the Ukraine is not able to export grain without the permission of Russia so that's why the idea that somehow this would be a acceptable outcome for Ukraine I think is ludicrous now I hear what you you raised a valid point that people are concerned oh this is you know Crimea is something special here for uh Putin his reputation all of that um I think that it is extremely extremely unlikely that Russia would use a nuclear weapon their nuclear weapons are really only effective when they don't use them because we continue to deter ourselves like oh my God they might use a nuclear weapon look how we all reacted or how many people reacted when they announced they were sending a tactical nuclear weapon that they might into Belarus I mean that was all over the press for a few days that did not do one thing to change the ability of Russia to use that nuclear weapon it was just their way of reminding us oh we have nuclear weapons because they know how we overreact to that and I think the ukrainians if they were hit if Russia employed a tactical nuclear weapon against them somewhere in Ukraine that ukrainians are not going to stop they're going to keep fighting and I think that the Russian general staff knows that so it's like oh okay we use the nuclear weapon ukrainians keep fighting what next my president has said it will be there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia if they use a nuclear weapon president XI has said do not use a nuclear weapon India has said do not use a nuclear weapon so I think that people around Putin also know that they're if there's going to be life after him for them they can't use the nuclear weapon so so that's what because yeah I mean Vladimir Putin we assume you know his highest interest of all is regime survival nothing tops that right and this is the concern that well you know if his very survival the survival of his regime is at stake then that's when he draws a nuclear card and he connects that and his mind potentially with Crimea what you're essentially counting on is then the the people around him saying sorry sir when we're not going down that road yeah in fact I would say his regime survival doesn't depend on Crimea it depends on him making sure he can protect himself and yeah of course it will be humiliating um but I don't think he's Nero you know that's willing to burn it all down around him um what he wants to make sure doesn't happen is that he gets drunk through Red Square the way you know Gaddafi did or Saddam Hussein or something like that so um I think that we uh I mean this is a guy that set on a 10 meter long table to avoid getting covered from visitors that doesn't sound suicidal to me I think that he is actually much more rational than that and we but we have talked ourselves into oh my God he might use a nuclear weapon and and I think it is unfounded and I'm talking about from the White House as well as many other Europeans the one the ones who would actually feel the effect of it the most ukrainians as well as Eastern Europeans are much less afraid of it than are those of us who live much further away from it um so just before we wrap up um so you've painted a pretty positive picture of of what the ukrainians can achieve in the next few months there are still concerns about the ukrainians not having the the support in terms of weapons that they need to sustain this um do they have what they need to do what you describe or are they already lacking things that they would need to do what you describe they need two things number one what they need is for the president of the United States the German bundles counselor the prime minister of UK the president of France to say we want Ukraine to win the there is no clear strategic outcome is laid out by the leaders of the West we haven't said we want them to win we've said we're with you for as long as it takes which is an absolutely meaningless statement or we've said we want Russia to lose which and then you'll hear somebody say well they've already strategically lost so none of this helps Ukraine so um my president needs to say our desires strategic outcome is this they don't do that and I think it's because they're concerned about nuclear um I think China has a role in this somehow and I think that the White House people are I don't know this doesn't sound right but they're almost scared of winning like what happens if Ukraine wins they haven't they can't control that so that's what one thing Ukraine needs and the second thing they need in terms of actual capability is long-range Precision weapons the ability to hit these places in Crimea if they had the atacums already 300 kilometers they could already have made Force the Black Sea Fleet to leave sevastopol because that's 300 kilometers that kind of precision and the Black Sea Fleet is important only because it can launch cruise missiles against civilian targets otherwise Ukraine is going to win this thing the speed with which it happens depends on us but does Ukraine really have the the stamina to keep this going for potentially years because if we look at the political situation in the U.S it's hard to look at the upcoming election and the positioning of some of the candidates there and think that the us is going to increase its support in the future we may have hit a high water mark so I I think you should ask do the Russians have the stamina to keep going I'm not sure they do there are not people rushing to join the Russian army nobody want no Russian wants to come to Ukraine because they see what happens they're they're they're having to do all kinds of things to fill their ranks with people just to go into this meat grinder so there is no enthusiasm not for actually being there um on the other hand Ukraine is defending their country they're fighting for their survival and so we know from history that war is a test of will it's obvious that the Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian people have much more will than do the Russian soldiers and Russian people Russia's defense industry isn't tatters they clearly do not have the ability to keep providing endless amounts of stuff which is why they're turning to Iran for drones I mean what does that tell you about Russia's defense industry and they're hoping that China might somehow come up with ways to support them but I think the Chinese are very reluctant to actually do that because they don't want the sanctions that would follow so I would say that the finally to address your specific point Senator Mitch McConnell you saw him he was at the immunity security conference back in February and he stood up and said hey I'm here with a huge Republican delegation to remind everybody that the United States including the GOP leadership cares about Europe NATO and Ukraine that's why we're here don't be confused by a few loudmouths that you hear on the far right a few loudmouths that means Donald Trump um you know Donald Trump will not be the next president and uh even um obviously his his biggest Challenger um my Governor DeSantis yeah that's right and what did he do when Governor DeSantis made this idiotic comment that this is some sort of regional border dispute he got killed by Republicans who said you idiot that's you have no idea what you're talking about so I think I I am much more confident that the U.S Congress in the bipartisan way will continue to support this but it it doesn't have to go on for years it could all end this year if the administration would say we want Ukraine to win and then I mean delivering this war has been going on obviously since 2014. and Russia still only controls about 15 percent of Ukraine nine months in Baku they still haven't captured it with all the advantages they still don't have air superiority they still haven't figured out a coherent command structure the Black Sea Fleet does nothing except shoot muscles against fixed targets apartment buildings the Russians have not been able to destroy one single train or Convoy bringing equipment and ammunition from Poland how is that in 14 months they couldn't they don't have the ability to destroy one train so all the indicators I see the only advantage that they have is they're willing to expend tens of thousands of lives pushing them into a meat grinder that's not sustainable all right Ben Hodges thanks for speaking to us and uh yeah we'll come back to you in the next couple of months and see how show me how wrong thank you very much thank you very much

Channel: DW News

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Keywords: DW News, ukraine war, ukraine strategy, ukraine offensive, ukraine counteroffensive, crimea, war in ukraine, ben hodges, ben hodges interview, russia, ukraine military, russia ukraine war, ukraine latest, ukraine news

Id: g7TeLWanYzI

Length: 22min 33sec (1353 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 21 2023