The New World Cup Format Is Absolutely Insane

16 cities three countries 48 teams and 104 matches these are the numbers you've most likely already heard by now in regards to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Canada Mexico and the United States and they have been known about since March 2023 almost a year ago when FIFA approved the new format ahead of its 73rd Congress in the Rwandan capital of kagali that wasn't when FIFA approved the move from a 32 to a 48 team World Cup that came all the way back in January 2017 less than a year into Giani infantino's presidency but rather they approved a change of format for those 48 teams from the one first unveiled over 7 years ago increasing the total number of games from 80 to 104 in one F swoop that's compared to just 64 games at the last seven World Cups by the way and 52 games the last time that either Mexico or the United States hosted the World Cup the original format for the new 48 team World Cup entailed the 48 qualified Nations being split up into 16 groups of three teams each up from just eight groups of four teams with the top two highest ranked teams from each group of three progressing through to The Knockout stage instead of 16 teams out of 32 progressing there 4 as was the case up to 2026 32 qualified teams out of 4 8 would progress from the groups necessitating the creation of an additional knockout round namely the round of 32 to whittle things down to the usual round of 16 quarterfinal semi-final and final stages FIFA boasted at the time that the new format would be played in exactly the same number of days as the previous one that the winners would still only play seven games and the the host nation would still only be required to have 12 FIFA approved stadiums there was some back Clash particularly in Europe but others noted the benefits most notably for countries that perhaps wouldn't otherwise be able to qualify for the World Cup besides this was a decision made in 2017 that only impacted a tournament in almost 10 years time and even the revamp format approved in 2023 came in the immediate aftermath of the 2022 World Cup and after Club football had only just restarted at neither stage did either format change make many headlines then and as a result what is a radical alteration to by far the biggest sporting event on the planet has flown a little bit under the radar most football fans are well aware of the expansion of 48 teams from the next World Cup onwards but not much about the broader structuring which is interesting because in more ways than one the new format is absolutely wild and I suspect that if more people were aware of it and the potential or even likely conse quences of it there would be some quite strongly held views on it so that is what today's video is all about the new worldcup format from 2026 onwards how it will look what it all means specifically for different countries and national teams why it is happening at all the pros and cons and the general Madness of it all oh sorry sorry I almost forgot so sit back relax and join me on a journey to North America via yuck as we take a look at well all of the above oh come on it'll be fun the expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams had been a long time coming and in some ways it's only a natural progression there were only 13 teams at the inaugural World Cup in 1930 which had no qualification phase partly because most European teams declined their invitations that increased to 16 teams in 1934 though the reigning champions ugu refused to participate in retaliation at so many European teams having refused to travel to South America and the British home Nations continued their self-imposed Exile despite England and Scotland being offered automatic qualification by FIFA describing the tournament as quote a joke and claiming that the British home Championship contested by England Ireland Scotland and Wales was a far better World Championship than the one being held in Rome the increase from 16 to 24 teams didn't come until the 1982 World Cup in Spain and the current format until 2026 at least of 32 teams at eight groups of four with two teams progressing from each through to a round of 16 was first adopted of the 1998 World Cup in France that was 26 years ago though and FIFA has long been agitating for a third expansion disgraced former FIFA president SE blatter had been publicly lobbying for an expansion from 32 to 4 team since 2013 and in more ways than one Infantino simply picked up where blatter left off when he entered office in 2016 blatter's plan for a 40 team expansion was to stick with just eight groups that increase each of them from four teams to five with still only the top two progressing through to the same round of 16 that was one of four proposals considered by FIFA back in January 2017 where by unanimous decision the FIFA Council instead voted in favor of new president Giani infantino's preferred plans for a greater increase all the way up to 48 teams 16 groups of three teams a piece with the top two from each group progressing there was a huge emphasis by FIFA in 2017 when they approved the expansion a new format upon the fact that it didn't mean that teams would have to play more games and that there would be no calendar extension they made this the Cornerstone of their defense and justification of the new format because the most VOC local critics of any World Cup expansion were Europe's biggest clubs principally through the European Club association which is recognized by both FIFA and UEFA and represents 220 European teams including all of the continent's biggest clubs ECA chairman Carl Hines reneger described the expansion to 48 teams as quote proper nonsense clearly Having learned English from a yorkman commenting quote what's happening behind the scenes specifically the haggling and squab for extra places in Europe Asia Africa Oceania and South America is Unworthy of football FIFA has to focus on football rather than politics and finances end quote romega went as far as to suggest that FIFA could face a Revolt threatening that European teams may choose to withhold their players from participating in an expanded 2026 World Cup of course most of the world's best players play for the eca's 220 clubs though it is unclear how well those players themselves would have reacted to that decision since the ECA initially honed in on the danger of the being too many matches and the World Cup eating up into the European Club football calendar as one of their primary critiques FIFA responded in kind that was one of the main reasons why 16 groups of three was initially approved by FIFA who proceeded to parro the same rehearse line about the same number of games to teams the same length calendar and the same number of stadiums being required in response to any and all criticism even if that criticism had nothing to do with any of those things as time wore on though the principal complaint not from the ECA necessarily but from all quarters was about what three team groups would actually mean for the World Cup one of the biggest problems for example is that all World Cup final group games have been played simultaneously since the disgrace of heon of the 1982 World Cup when West Germany and Austria effectively rigged their final group game in order to ensure that they both progressed at algeria's expense the move to three team groups however would of course mean that all teams couldn't possibly play at the same time one team would have to watch on as the other two faced off reopening the risk of collusion and of potential match fixing another problem came in regards to tiebreakers as things stand if two teams are tied on points in the World Cup group stage you go first a goal difference followed by goal scored then their head-to-head record against the team that they're tied with and finally if two or more teams still can't be separated it moves on to their fair play record it's rare that things get that far but not totally unheard of you may recall and if you're sagales then I'm near certain that you'll recall the Japan and Sagal were tied on points goal difference goals scored and they drew two all in their only meeting at the 2018 World Cup which meant that there was nothing to set separate them the fact that Japan had only received four yellow cards in their three games giving them a fair play score of minus four and senal received six giving them a score of minus 6 saw the Asians progress and the Africans eliminated it is a cruel way in which to be dumped out of a World Cup but fortunately that is the only time in World Cup history that it has ever happened by reducing the number of teams in a group from 4 to three though and the number of group games from 3 to2 the probability of ties and therefore tie Breakers being required is greatly increased it could be the case under that system that half of all groups would be determined by something other than points and if the current tiebreaker rules were maintained fair play could be called upon in four or five groups it seemed as though neither of these issues had even occurred to FIFA when they announced their radical new World Cup format for the first time despite it having been 4 years in the making where which you know is a bit of a concern coming from the body that literally governs World football and they began hurridly searching for Solutions and offering up a series of panicked and scattergun suggestions to solve both of those problems to combat the tiebreak and collusion risk Infantino suggested that all group games could end with penalty shootouts making it harder to fix the outcome of the final game and meaning that there would always be head-to-head winners between tie teams ironically all games requiring penalties or at least all draws is supposedly an idea that was first proposed by the Americans before they hosted their first World Cup in 1994 but they were laughed out of the room by FIFA and universally derided for not understanding football ahead of the World Cup returning to the United States it was FIFA making the same proposal not just for draws but for every single game not only does the idea of all games ending with penalty sound absurd though it also wouldn't even fix the problem at hand as that slowly dawned on FIFA there were plenty of madap ideas that might reduce the likelihood or potential for collusion in that final group game but none that could eliminate it likewise the idea of settling tiebreakers if points goal difference goal scored head-to-head record and fair play records were all equal as would be much more likely under a three- team group format by the country's position in the Fifa World Ranking into the World Cup was widely criticized within moments of leaving Giani infantino's mouth at that initial press conference in zoric before long Thief had adopted a new line in short hey chill out guys it's 9 years away well cross the eyes dot the teas and iron out any imperfections over the next few years what's the big rush they didn't and then the 2022 World Cup group stage happened every single group had something on the line heading into that final round of fixtures played simultaneously there was the drama of geopolitical Rivals Iran in the United States going head-to-head to reach the Knockouts in group b the agony of winning 2-nil against Ghana but still being eliminated for Uruguay as South Korea scored a 91st minute winner against Portugal and most notably of all the sheer chaos of group E where the order of Costa Rica Germany Spain and Japan shifted constantly throughout the duration of both games and Germany's late comeback win against Costa Rica ultimately proved to be futile due to Japan's own comeback Victory against Spain there could hardly have been a better advert for the 14 group stage format than the 2022 World Cup and when it ended there was a widespread response of wait they're getting rid of this and so just a few months later FIFA scrapped their initial World Cup format for 2026 onwards and announced a new one instead of 16 groups of three with two teams progressing from each there will be 12 groups of four with the top two automatically progressing as well as the eight best third place teams meaning 32 teams will still progress through to The Knockout stage so as many as competed in the entire group stage of every World Cup between 1998 in 2022 and there will still be the addition of a new knockout stage the round of 32 to streamline the competition ahead of the pre-existing round of 16 as with so many things that FIFA does this was simultaneously a move of pure strategic genius and Incredibly stupid it is genius because FIFA got their 48 team World Cup expansion through the door in 2017 by anchoring everything on teams playing no additional games no extension to the calendar and no additional stadiums being required and then in 2023 when all of the attention had turned to the format approved by FIFA specifically with that in mind make no mistake it wasn't because they thought that three team groups would be better from a sporting or entertainment perspective they addressed those complaints by coming up with a new format which they always would have preferred which does require an additional game for any team that makes The Knockout stage will extend the calendar by 10 whole days and requires two additional workup venues though the will be four extra venues in 2026 due to the World Cup being played across three different countries essentially FIFA gets to have their cake and eat it what's more Infantino and FIFA no longer have to worry about complaints from the European Club association or threats not to release players despite having done exactly what the ECA previously complained about the prospects of them doing because the ECA has had a significant change of chairmanship since 2019 after years at the helm vocal FIFA critic and 48 team World Cup opponent Carl hin reneger stepped down as the ECA chairman in September 2017 Andrea aneli was appointed as his successor occupying the position until 2021 when he was forced to resign and his Club Juventus actually withdrew from the ECA following attempts to form the Breakaway European Super League the only European Giants who hadn't signed up to the Breakaway League were the big two in the Bundesliga both majority fan-owned and French Champions PSG owned by the state of Qatar that paved the way for PSG president NASA Al CI who is also the chairman of Qatar Sports Investments a subsidiary of Qatar Sovereign wealth fund and was previously accused of corruption linked to qatar's hosting of the 2022 World Cup to replace aneli as chairman of the EA Al CI a former world number 995 tennis player you you probably won't be particularly surprised to discover is much less of a Critic of FIFA than two-time Bal Andor winning football legend Carl Hans romega in fact he is positively gushing about them in response to the new 48 World Cup format approved by FIFA in March 2023 and the simultaneous announcements about the new club World Cup format Al Cy stated in his position as chairman of the ECA quote FIFA want to protect themselves and we want to protect the club interests in the end each party understands that interest but if we come together it benefits everybody clubs will benefit from the 70% increase in terms of Revenue and the solidarity that we will have for the club World Cup the ECA actually cares also about the clubs outside of Europe so it's not just about us end quote that last comment is a bit of a head scratcher given that the European Club association is a special interest group which was founded with the explicit purpose of representing and creating value for its members namely European football clubs buty who could possibly say whether the chairman of a subsidiary of the katar investment Authority who was once accused of bribing FIFA's General Secretary by Swiss prosecutors on behalf of qatar's ultimately successful bid host the 2022 World Cup denied any corruption and then called the 2022 tournament the best World Cup ever could possibly have any Al Arian motives or whether any politics could be involved in his conclusion completely contrary to his predecessor it should be said that the expansion of the World Cup more games more dates and more stadiums is actually great I guess we'll just never know following the approval of the new format almost a year ago amusingly FIFA pivoted seamlessly from claiming that the World Cup calendar wouldn't be expanded to boasting that the World Cup's calendar Footprints wouldn't be expanded if if that phrase is a new one to you then fair not you're not alone the calendar footprint represents the amount of time that players need to be released by their clubs and therefore all impacted competitions need to be suspended in order for players to prepare travel and compete in the World Cup despite the World Cup increasing from 29 to 39 days from 2022 to 2026 when FIFA initially claimed that there would be no extension the calendar footprint with which is apparently 56 days FIFA has provided assurances it will not be changed phew you can breath a side relief I know that many of you will have been worried about the calendar footprint when you heard that news so it's good news to know that that's been protected and so that is where we are now with a 48 team 12 group and 104 game World Cup but crucially an unchanged calendar footprint it's important to put in context just how how many games there will be at the 2026 World Cup and at every World Cup from that point on compared to all those which preceded it the number of games in 2026 compared to 2022 has increased by 62.5% there will be more games in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup 68 than there were at the entire 2022 World Cup 64 it means that in the space of fewer than 40 days there will be over a quarter of the number of games 27.3% to be specific as they are throughout the entire course of a premier league Campaign which spans eight whole months what's more those 68 group games more than the total number of games across the entirety of any previous World Cup will only actually eliminate 16 teams since 32 of the 48 qualified Nations will progress to the knockouts on the basis that most of the teams who finished third in their four team groups will qualify for the round of 32 personally I think that is the worst thing about this and indeed every proposed 48 team World Cup format the common complaint is about the standard of football being diluted and it isn't a baseless one it is obviously true that by adding 16 new teams who would otherwise have been too weak to qualify for a 32 team World Cup the overall standard will drop since teams will still be seeded it also means speaking generally that the top teams will have a much easier time and there are likely to be far fewer upsets that is a legitimate criticism but the fact that most third place teams will also progress makes that issue much worse and all the more pertinent since all 12 groups will have at least one so-called Whipping Boy most likely a team that any high ranking national team will be expected to comfortably Beat It means that the group stage is likely to become much more of a formality for them whereas previously underperformance even by Titans like Italy France Germany England and Spain has resulted in fairly recent group stage exits now those powerhouses could perform well below expectations win one game against let's just say for the sake of argument Zambia or Iraq and still be highly likely to progress where's the fun in that the whole excitement of the 2022 World Cup group stage and every 14 group stage which preceded it was built upon the Jeopardy and competitiveness of every game the one wasn't a single team that were all three group games in Qatar only three countries Brazil France and Portugal were guaranteed of qualification going into their final game that's what made the group stage and particularly those simultaneous final days with so many different permeations and machinations as the score lines changed quite so exhilarating that's not to say that there won't be any excitement in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup the will still be the competition to top your group to be seeded and avoid the strongest teams in the round of 32 and the desire to avoid finishing third and relying on other teams in other groups having an inferior record to you it's just that the real Jeopardy that precarity and potential for elimination that makes the Stak so high at a World Cup is only likely to apply to second third and fourth tier national teams this isn't exclusive to the World Cup we have seen it in other competitions and we know how this plays out following the expansion from 16 to 24 teams at the Euros at Euro 2016 and 2020 four out of the six third place teams progressed to The Knockout stage meaning only eight teams were eliminated in the entire group stage the same will be true at Euro 2024 the result has been a reward for failure less Jeopardy and less excitement I would just ask how many Euro 2020 and 2016 group stage TI you can actually remember and remember as being thrilling Affairs compared to 2022 World Cup group games if the answer is as I would imagine it is then that tells a story all of its own the Euro 2016 group stage in particular was a turgid Affair Portugal who went on to win the Euros didn't win a single group game scraping through as the third best third place team with only three points to their name at Euro 2020 it meant that what ought to have been a perilous group of death containing France Germany and Portugal was instead a tedious formality with all three teams progressing through to the round of 16 it creates a situation whereby for the top Nations unless they somehow manag to soil themselves in spectacular fashion which is something that not one of them has yet done the group stage becomes a glorified warm-up competition just take England at Euro 2020 where Gareth Southgate played around with a couple of systems and different Personnel against Croatia Scotland and the Czech Republic just sort of easing his team into the tournament safe in the knowledge that just one win could earn them progression and one win one draw and a defeat would virtually guarantee it if you think that's bad and you should because it is the World Cup from 2026 onwards is going to be like that but on steroids the Euros is made up of 24 teams from the strongest Confederation in the world the lowest ranks of whom typically sit somewhere between 40 to 60th in the world a 48 team World Cup by contrast with eight guaranteed qualification places for teams from Asia nine from Africa six from North America 16 from Europe six from South America and one from Oceania is practically guaranteed to include teams ranked outside of the top 100 in the FIFA world rankings that is great for those teams that qualify who wouldn't otherwise at a 32 team World Cup from a financial Developmental and sheer emotional standpoint and I am about to come to the positives but it is a decision that has been made solely for financial and political reasons by FIFA and Infantino and it is one which undeniably will create a weaker group stage less dramatic group stage ties and much easier progression for the strongest national teams though FIFA's motives as always are almost singular L financial and self-interested in nature that's not to say that there are no positive outcomes the UFA conference league for example Europe's new tertiary competition which sits below the champions league and the Europa League was created by UEFA with the sole intention of putting on more matches which means more Revenue but it is still a fantastic competition which gives a whole raft of teams opportunities to compete in Europe which they otherwise wouldn't have had so it is possible I mean it's rare don't get me wrong but it can happen in this case the most obvious positive is that an additional 16 teams will compete to the FIFA World Cup which is great for those 16 teams and almost more importantly from an emotional standpoint it means that an additional 40 to 50 national teams can aspire to qualify for a World Cup and Target World Cup qualification as a realistic ambition who otherwise wouldn't have been able to at least not in the short term we know that football is developing quickly in lower rank countries and there is a constant if gradual shift towards parity whereas Luxembourg and the Pharaoh Islands used to lose every game against even mediocre opponents by cricket scores now they're able to beat the likes of turkey Bosnia and Ireland and draw games against Hungary Bulgaria and Slovakia cap Verde reached the quarterfinals of the afcon Namibia beat Tunisia and Jordan are threw to their first ever final of the Asian cup after beating South Korea tunel in the semis heck San Marino who are still wrongly ranked as the worst national team on the planet have only lost their last three games by 2-1 3-1 and 2-1 score lines against Finland kazakstan and Denmark you'd have to be blind or not paying any attention whatsoever not to notice the extraordinary progress that is being made by International footballs minnows and 16 extra World Cup slots and the chance to compete in football's biggest competition against International football's biggest and best can only help aid that development even if they are forced to suffer a few thrashings like Kate Verde and San Marino have on route that India and China the two largest countries on Earth home to more than a third of the world's population between them have only ever competed at zero and one World Cup respectively China's sole appearance coming in 2002 where they lost all three group games obviously cannot be good for the development of the game incidentally India and China are currently so bad that it is distinctly possible that they still won't qualify under a 48 team format neither of them would have done so based upon their qualification rankings in 20202 but it makes it a realistic Prospect at least I also think that it's great that Oceania which is by far the world football's smallest and poorest Confederation gets one guaranteed spot at a World Cup I think it's only rate that a World Cup should have representatives from all six of world footballs confederations and hopefully with time Tahiti or the Solomon Islands can rival New Zealand for that qualification spot if you know they don't sink into the ocean for the sake of this argument I will try to be a bit more positive even if that positivity doesn't have any basis in scientific facts I suppose from a fan perspective one could argue that another benefit of this new format is simply more gay the first two weeks of the 2026 World Cup we'll see four matches played a day meanwhile for the final round of fixtures in each group there will be six games a day that's great if and I'm guessing most of you do you like lots of football though not all kickoff times are likely to accommodate fans depending on where they are in the world but you have to temper that with the trade-off between more games and the likelihood of less competition and excitement in the group stage as we've already discussed the the addition of a round of 32 I suppose you could argue is unambiguously a positive from that perspective so there is that at least surely also there is a point of diminishing returns at a World Cup even from the perspective of the world's minnow Panama Iceland and Canada qualifying for 32 team World Cups in 2018 or 2022 was a tremendous achievement precisely because it was so difficult qualifying for a 48 18 World Cup great though it may be is surely a slightly lesser achievement there are 21 FIFA Affiliated national teams in total so at what point does World Cup qualifications cease to carry the same Prestige if we end up with 128 teams at the World Cup and all it takes to qualify is not losing every game in qualifying no doubt Samoans would be delighted to reach their first World Cup and I would be happy for them but would it still carry the same weight and Prestige referring specifically to the 2026 World Cup now this is a 104 game tournament spread out over an enormous geographical area it's noteworthy that UEFA has encouraged teams at Euro 2024 to travel solely by train or bus to reduce their carbon emissions and may even prohibit flights between games meanwhile there are probably only two stadiums at the next World Cup that teams realistically wouldn't fly between namely in New Jersey and Philadelphia Adelphia to try and reduce the amount of travel for players and fans FIFA has divided the World Cup into three zones West Central and East and each group will be restricted to one zone that's great and all but it's worth putting in context the distance teams and fans are still likely to have to travel within zones the journey from Vancouver to Los Angeles for example both in the west region takes 20 hours by car a day and a half by public transport or over hours by air from Kansas City to Mexico City both in the central zone it's 28 hours by Car 2 days via public transport or a 5 and 1 half hour connecting flight and from Boston to Miami both in the east region you can look forward to a 23-hour Drive 29 hours by public transport or a more than 3 and 1/ half hour flight one Quirk of the 2026 World Cup despite the expansion is that teams and therefore players will get more rest between games due to the 10-day extension of the tournament overall which will be needed given all of the travel involved though they will obviously have less rest between the World Cup and both the end of the previous season and the start of the next one with a new World Cup format FIFA also unveiled a new World Cup qualification process which will involve a brand new InterContinental playoff tournaments whereby six teams will descend upon one of the three host Nations it is yet to be determined which one just yet for an efl style playoff campaign but bigger and Allin one location rather than just the final to determine the last two teams who will qualify for the World Cup in the interest of fairness and balance I think that'll be great and quite possibly actually more entertaining than most of the actual World Cup group stage games given the stakes involved and the implications for every team this is one of those videos like most of my video essays to be perfectly honest where I've only got about halfway through my notes and the video is already I'm guessing about 40 minutes long that means you are deprived of my working example of what the group stage might look like that's not it by the way very specific examples of the most heavily impacting Nations and what it will mean for them the host cities in 2026 how two out of the three countries capitals plus New York won't host any games and no New Jersey isn't New York Canada and Mexico getting no games beyond the round of 16 again solely for financial reasons when the estadio azka is literally the largest stadium at the tournament at least as things stand but has an inferior Hospitality offering compared to America's various NFL grounds the process of de facto vote buying contrasted with the tangible benefits that FIFA's tip fortat deals that Infantino does with smaller associations can bring those countries and my alternative format which is that if you must expand to 48 teams I'd actually rather only the winners of each of the four team groups progress automatically plus the four best second place teams cutting out the new round of 32 and skipping instead to the traditional round of 16 making the group stage incredibly high stakes entertaining and competitive in the process but hey that would be one fewer round of fixtures that is a whole lot less cash it'll never catch on who actually cares about things like the quality of football or entertainment losers that's who well I suppose you weren't entirely deprived of the last one I basically just surmised it for you there but the rest will have to wait for another time in short FIFA has done what FIFA does best taken something that isn't broken smashed it to Pieces glued half of it back up together again and then done a Victory lap expecting to be lorded for their genius the end result is that FIFA expects its Revenue for the three-year cycle from 2023 to 2026 the vast majority of which will come from the 2026 World Cup to increase from $7.5 billion for the 2019 to 2022 cycle that included the last World Cup up to $1 billion and that at the end of the day is what football is all about three cheers for Giani today he feels like ruining the World Cup group stage I can't wait to see what he's got in store for us all next as he continues his slow but sure morphing into the Bondville and an stavo blow hey you better believe that I'll still be watching El Salvador versus jouti at 3:00 a.m. for that vital third place spot you'll have to try harder than that to lose my interest at least anyway thank you all very much as ever for watching today's video I hope that you all enjoyed it hit the like button if that was the case let me know your thoughts Down Below in the comments and of course goes without saying make sure that you are subscribed and have notifications turned on for both this channel HTC 7s and also my second Channel Alfie Poots Arma both of which should be on or about to appear on your screens now along with a couple of videos that you might fancy watching after this one you can also find me on Twitter Instagram or threads via the username at hit c7s on all three should you wish to do so and all of those links plus a whole lot more should be down in the video description below cheers

Channel: HITC Sevens

Views: 575,195

Keywords: HITC Sevens, Football, Soccer, World Cup, FIFA World Cup, 2026 World Cup, Format, New, Absolutely, Insane, Teams, Tournament, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Premier League, MLS, United States, FIFA, Gianni Infantino

Id: W2m_B3LBb4E

Length: 36min 26sec (2186 seconds)

Published: Fri Feb 09 2024