The Matt Bernier Show | Ep. 6 | March 16, 2020

[Music] what's happening welcome into the Matt Berninger show part of the in the money Media Network my name is Matt burn here you can follow me on twitter at Burnie or underscore Matt this is episode 6 of the revamped Matt Bernier's show for Monday March the 16th 2020 however you listening to this thing thank you for doing so there's a number of ways and options for you as far as your listening and viewing consumption are concerned if you are someone like to watch you can head on over to YouTube and just search the Matt burn of your show or you can go to the in the money media page as far as the YouTube channel is concerned please subscribe to that make sure the bell icon is lit up so you get everything that in the money media has to offer whenever one of these episodes is uploaded you'll get a notification you click on it boom there you go if you are someone that likes to just listen to things number of ways for you to do that as well whether it's Apple podcasts whether it's over on in the Money podcast comm along with all the other in the money properties whether it is the in the money players podcast whether it's the red board rewind whether it's the in the ring podcast whether you name it number of different things over there for you to find and again in the money podcast com plenty of ways though for you to find all these things and however you listen please rate review and subscribe this obviously a bit of an odd time not just from a racing standpoint but just worldwide I mean we've got bigger things going on other than just horse racing and sports in general with coronavirus doing a number on every one at this point so that has to be obviously the the sort of opening piece here I'm not going to spend a ton of time on the virus itself in the disease itself because look I'm not a doctor I know about as much as you do and probably and as far as many of you are concerned I know less than you do I just there's only so much that I trust coming from certain things on on the internet so I'm just kind of whatever the government and the CDC and folks are saying that's kind of what I'm I'm trying to abide by but again I I'm not someone that who opinion really should matter about this sort of thing about the actual illness itself that's something that you should be worried about and sort of reading up on from educated people it does affect horse racing though and at the end of day that's what all of you folks are here watching and listening for horse racing information horse racing topics and conversation so we'll talk about that how does this potentially affect horse racing going forward now I'm recording this open here at 11:38 on Monday morning Monday the 16th nothing has been announced yet the things that have been announced a number of jurisdictions are being shut down as far as gatherings of 50 people or more New York has done it here in Massachusetts where I live that has gone into effect but now you're starting to see casinos and racetracks close up I know overnight Oakland Park announced that they are going to run through March the 30th without any spectators Maryland has closed up shop New York I would imagine is gonna follow suit now that this sort of new thing is pushed through we're gatherings of 50 or more people no dice I just I think this is probably a precursor of things to come and look if this is what it takes to kind of nip this thing in the bud right now let's do it let's just sit it out for a few weeks and try to try to right the ship Oakland we'll see what happens there that's that's tentatively what their plan is if things change dramatically over the next few days or even this afternoon and that's why I'm saying this is being recorded right around 20 to 12:00 on Monday morning the 16th of March because there are some of this opening piece here that could be obsolete and I think there's a real chance that one of these topics at least is by the time you listen to this or watch this whether it's Monday night or Tuesday or whenever you typically listen to this as far as the big race the Kentucky Derby the run for the roses when Bob Baffert after charlatan who and let me just give you a little rundown will talk about the Derby and and just racing ramifications as far as coronavirus is concerned then we will pivot to the actual racing itself that we've already seen go over the stakes races from this past weekend including the rebel the beholder mile the Azzurri the hurricane birdie and the Jeff Ruby stakes I'll also have to touch on charlatans no question about it and then we'll wrap things up with pick history updated there and the Q&A segment as well so back to where we were when Bob Baffert is quoted in a Louisville courier-journal story after charlatans smashing victory in his first try going to turns Saturday evening when he's quoted saying he's hearing June or September for the Kentucky Derby when I read that I think what he's not just hearing it he's probably being told that by the powers that be because I maintain it was it was similar to what I brought up earlier last week on Twitter when the NCAA tournaments were cancelled the men's and women's tournaments were cancelled but prior to them officially pulling the plug Duke in Kansas had announced that as sort of entities schools they were not going to allow their athletic teams to travel and I said the D NCAA tournaments not happening the men's tournament is 100% not happening and the women's sternum is probably not gonna happen either I said if Dukes not playing they're not going to have the tournament and I had someone come back to me and they go well Duke is in every year it feels like it's a rite of passage you know let somebody else that's not the point the point is the one of if not the marquee brand as far as college basketball is concerned and I don't mean to get into a sort of a you-know-what match back and forth between who is the marquee brand I know there's Duke I know there's Carolina I know there's Kentucky in Kansas and Michigan State didn't you name it there's a million different ones and I'm sure I'm omitting people and that's not the point of this but the idea is if you're going to be missing at least one and then Kansas comes out follow suit you're missing two of your marquee brands that tournaments not going to be played without your marquee brands the Kentucky Derby is not going to be run without their marquee brands and their marquee brands when we want to admit it or not it's not necessarily the horses because the horses are only here for this long the marquee brands are the names and faces that everyone is accustomed to and knows and can recognize most notably the guy at the white hair Bob Baffert another guy with exposing collar white hair Todd Pletcher I don't mean that in a negative way Chad Brown Richard Mandela any of these names the Derby will not be run without them because it loses I know the the event itself is still bigger than the individuals participating but it still matters so when Baffert saying he's hearing June or September that's an informed opinion he's probably been talking back and forth with the folks at Churchill Downs and that seems more likely than not I'm saying this again I can't stress this enough now it's about quarter of twelve I have a reliable source that tells me that the race is going to be run in September it's not official yet but you're seeing other folks out on social media starts to sort of float that out as well you're seeing that the first the Labor Day weekend hotels in Louisville are basically non-existent anymore and if they are they're through the roof price-wise usually where there's smoke there's fire so do with that what you will and I'm sure by the time this comes out on Monday they'll have already been an announcement of won the race if it is indeed going to be postponed it seems like it's going to but if it is indeed postponed when it will be I feel like I there's enough smoke to think that it's going to be early September I would imagine the first Saturday in September so a little bit of a wrinkle now what does that mean for the rest of the Triple Crown and the rest of the let's just use the three-year-olds because the Derby doesn't have a an immediate impact on older horses obviously the three-year-olds are the ones that can partake in the race so how does that shake up the Triple Crown in general well if we're talking about the Kentucky Derby likely being postponed because the coronavirus you have to assume the Maryland Jockey Club is gonna be looking at it saying what are the what's the likelihood that everything will clear up two weeks beyond the Kentucky Derby for us to run the Preakness I mean again this is nothing more than speculation and conjecture but I it seems pretty unlikely I feel like at this point we're all sort of I mean doesn't doesn't the beginning of June feel like a air quotes safe and I'm not I'm doctor I don't know was a trajectory of these things but if we all do what we're supposed to do kind of lay low for a few weeks let this thing kind of you know simmer down a bit maybe the beginning of June is a safe bet that we start to see sports starting to kind of be folded back into the day-to-day lives and if that's the case well the Preakness is the second week in May is if the Preakness needs to be postponed there are multiple pieces to that effectively then the Belmont Stakes could be actually the first leg of the Triple Crown at a mile and a half which would be a little bit of a throw your head for a spin the Preakness being postponed theoretically Pimlico is me is this long so let's say it needed to be postponed until June or July they'll be back at Laurel at that point does that mean that the Preakness after all that all the the news stories and speculation that we had heard and been speaking about for seems like years now about the possibility of the Preakness moving to Laurel but now the city of Baltimore and Stronach group they're working together to try to revamp Pimlico in the years to come whatever it however that shakes down wouldn't it kind of be ironic if the race ended up being run at Laurel not by any of their sort of volition but because of an outside factor that kind of forced their hand forestall everyone's hand I just so that that's what was my first thought is that if the Derby is gonna get postponed and all likely that the Preakness is gonna get postponed the Preakness gets postponed Pimlico is probably not going to be running their meet at that point then does the Preakness have to shift to Laurel when is the pre it's gonna be run do you run it after the Belmont Stakes so all the sudden does the Triple Crown for 2020 look like the mile and a half Belmont the mile and 3/16 Preakness and then later on the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby and in the midst of that I wonder how does that affect the other sort of Marky three-year-old races how does that affect the Haskell at Monmouth Park has that effect the Travers at Saratoga how does that affect the Pennsylvania Derby at parks and what does all this mean at that time of year for the older horses now I mean you're it's been a trend that you're seeing fewer and fewer three-year-olds take on elders before the Breeders Cup I mean this year if the schedule looks anything remotely like what I just laid out you won't you won't see three-year-olds against older horses as far as the classic distance races are concerned the jockey and club gold cub you won't see any three-year-olds in that race this year you won't see any three-year-olds new awesome again out at Santa Anita you think of any of these the Lucas Classic which I know typically they have run I believe the Stephen Foster has now been moved into September you won't see any three-year-olds in that race because if the Derby is gonna possibly be in September the Travers theoretically is a few weeks prior to that the Pennsylvania Derby is probably gonna be run right on the Kentucky Derby or somewhere they're about within a week or two I mean there's there seems like there would be zero chance that you would see three-year-olds taking on elders before the Breeders Cup and keeping in mind that the Breeders Cup Classic is going to be at Keeneland this year so you know there's a real scenario where for your top three-year-olds you end up with some sort of a campaign of the Belmont the Preakness and if you let's say you've run in the Belmont run well enough you don't win Triple Crowns not a possibility for you maybe you bypass the Preakness maybe you wait for a race again this is nothing more than me spitballing here and I'd be curious what your thoughts are on Twitter at Burnie or underscore matter beneath the video player on YouTube do you bypass the freakness when you run in the Preakness and then you end up by passing the Travers to be ready and fresh for the Kentucky Derby do you bypass the Preakness and run in a race like the Haskell in July and then run in the Travers leading into the Derby but then the idea of if you run in the Travers and let's say the Derby is in September realistically you can't run in both of those I mean they'll the likelihood of that being a possibility the Travers is the second-to-last weekend of the Saratoga meeting at a mile and a quarter and if let's say it is the first Saturday in September for the Kentucky Derby you're gonna run two mile and a quarter races over the course of two weeks and then you're gonna have what seven weeks before the Breeders Cup Classic I mean it's certainly a monkey wrench that connections are gonna need to factor in when plotting out campaigns for these top-level three-year-olds and the last piece I'll touch on with this is how do these early season Derby preps Derby preps for this year anyway how do these ultimately shape things going forward and what do these final preps look like is this these races still going to be the end-all be-all as far as the points are concerned because you know theoretically your final prep would be something like the Lexington at Keeneland but the chances of that having a direct effect on the Kentucky Derby which wouldn't be for another what four months would you still be using this point standings this point system as sort of your barometer who gets in and who doesn't and if that's the case do you actually get more horses and connections that push to try to get in for these final round of preps again knock on wood hopefully we run them because the chances of these horses staying sound and fit and happy over the next four months to get to that you know if the Derby is still the end-all be-all which in most cases it will be do you have more people trying to get on the list knowing that defections for the next four months are gonna happen it's one thing when we're talking about okay you're gonna run in this race here the beginning of March we're only eight weeks away you know what some of these other connections are gonna say maybe we'll maybe we'll wait maybe we'll take our time with our horse and get them prepped for a summer campaign but all the sudden the Derby the main goal itself is pushed back another four months do you get those connections that would have typically been content saying we're gonna take our time we're gonna wait we're not gonna throw them into one of these Derby preps because we want to just kind of bring them along on their own do you have them take a chance see if they can get some points knowing that you know what even if we're not in the top twenty heck if we're not in the top 25 or even 30 the likelihood of that group of 20 still being the group of 20 in September is so so slim so maybe all of a sudden there are some defections and guess what maybe by that time that horse that right now doesn't seem ready to go for a race like the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May maybe by the first Saturday in September that horse is a monster so maybe you get connections that kind of push the envelope a little bit if this all ends up shaking out the way that it is I'll keep an eye on Twitter right now but again the the chatter is that you could be looking at a September date for the Kentucky Derby and if that's the case then you know we'll see what happens but I think it's a fascinating thing it's unfortunate that we are in this position and obviously it's unfortunate we're in this position because of the reason that we are but I'm curious what your thoughts are again on Twitter at Bernie or underscore Matt or beneath the YouTube player fascinating - I mean crazy times crazy times to be alive but but fascinating fascinating ramifications all around let me know what your thoughts are let's get some of the racing from this past weekend we'll kick things off with the big Derby prep that being the rebel down at Oakland Park sloppy mess in front of no fans because the coronavirus doesn't matter unfortunately not more people in person anyway we're able to see the show that Nadal put on all of us got to see it obviously through the magic of the internet and things of that nature technology it's a wild thing Nadal though you want to talk about a performance and a horse that coming into this race you can understand he went really really hard in that San Vicente in his most recent run and that was I'd mentioned I think that was actually the first podcast since I came back the the idea that he in Ginobli they threw it down that was a hard hard race between those two and I was gonna be curious to see how each of them exited that and wherever their next star was sounds like Ginobili they're gonna keep him going shorter which I really really like I think he's gonna be a really talented three-year-old this year sprinting Nadal you expected them to stretch him out and try to find out what we've got here he goes out there and sets a wicked pace throughout a contested wicked pace early on with American Theorem puts him away and then continues on with his business and holds off a late late run from Accession who was a million-to-one coming from dead last the the numbers aren't necessarily gonna tell you the story with Nadal here from Saturday afternoon let's start with the fractions 2289 23 eleven twenty five thirty eight so that third quarter was definitely on the slower side and he finishes in thirty three fifty nine thirty three fifty nine is really nothing to write home about but when you consider that racetrack sloppy going to turns for the first time for this horse time form us had the interior fractions color-coded red so this was not a slow pace by any stretch and then when you take a look and see that he had the second fastest come home time only behind Accession who again came from dead last this is a pretty major league performance from Nadal ninety-six Beyer Speed figure 114 raw time form us rating pace adjusted moves up to a 120 I mean that this was a really really impressive effort from this horse now I've heard from people whose opinions that I respect debt pointing out that this has been sort of a path and a pattern for Baffert to send horses to the rebel that aren't necessarily horses that have the ability to go longer as the distances stretch out and maybe the waters get a little bit deeper I'm not arguing with that but that doesn't change the fact that the run on Saturday was exceptional from Nadal and if my mind serves me correctly he has run some pretty big horses in the rebel in the past that have gone on and been able to successfully stretch out and handle more ground I believe American Pharoah took the rebel to Arkansas Derby to wherever else paths so and I'm not comparing the doll to Pharoah but it's not as though this would be a totally unheard of thing for this horse to be able to stretch out maybe he ultimately will be better going shorter but you can't knock the performance that we saw in Saturday that was arguably the best prep performance we've seen to date may not have been the fastest on the final time but I think when you factor in and that's an important piece of handicapping the number look I am someone that firmly believes in the numbers whatever figures you will you want to use I think they're all valuable I prefer to have more than one so I can sort of compare and contrast but there's more there there are ways that the figures are earned and this if you just want to use the buyer as the number you know that 96 is is considerably better than the 96 would indicate if you were just someone that opened up the Racing Form one day and saw that number and said wow it's a good race no it's considerably better than what that number suggests that's part of the piece that I enjoy with time form us and having said that I usually just I prefer to see the raw number and allow myself to interpret whether I think it was actually upgraded or not but if you're someone that really is sort of on the time crunch and you're just trying to find a bit of a hack to get through there and say well it was this number X Y or Z time form us goes ahead and does that they factor in the pay situation into their final rating which again in this instance pace adjusted would have been a 120 for an adult so a big effort from him saw some folks chirping about Basin saying that this was a good effort for him a good starting off point I won't I won't argue that it's a good starting off point he did get shuffled a little bit on the far turn when American Theorem started backing up but I don't think it was anything outrageous I don't think it was anything that really cost him to too much he finished kind of flat in my opinion I thought I thought everyone essentially in this race outside of Nadal was just sort of up and down it was nothing nothing wild he can certainly move forward because it was his first start since the hopeful you would imagine he needed this race to get a little bit tighter but boy he's gonna need to move forward in a pretty significant way if he's gonna be a major threat here is the three-year-old because again I feel like week in and week out keeps kind of adding to the narrative this is a really talented group right here so we'll see what happens I think Basin if you still believe I'm not gonna try to talk you off of him if you're someone that needs to be convinced of him I'm not gonna be the one to do that because I thought it was a fair effort I don't think it was anything to write home about Nadal's a + charlatan charlatan you can make the case was the star of the weekend he takes on winners for the first time he stretches out to two turns for the first time he gets out there I thought there were fair fractions I don't think it was a blistering pace I don't think he was walking either for a mile for a horse clearly of this talent level 46 and 4 it is fair 46 and 4 going a mile and a quarter is a different story 46 and Ford a mile uncontested as well it's a fair pace it's nothing crazy but the way the thing that was most impressive to me about charlatan I didn't think he looked fantastic on the turns and I've brought this up a few different times in different instances the concept of turn time and it's a it's a Tom brohamer certain methodology sort of concept an idea and I recognize if you're truly looking at turn time it's more about the velocity ratings than necessarily you know just using your eye but I think you can use your eye there's a reason that certain horses it looks like they are moving faster on the turns than others and they can make up ground it's because they are they can handle the turns better than other horses can I've used bravado in the past and right now he's not a good example because he's just not in good form but when he was at his best he was not a horse that really seemed to move well on the turns once you got him onto the straights that's when he really leveled off and ran again I I don't I'm not gonna compare charlatan to Bravo's Oh in that sense but it didn't he didn't put any any ground on the field he didn't make up any ground or put lengths on the field on the turn it was sort of he maintained his position which is which is fine when he hit the top of the Lane in Van Dyck cracked him with the stick a couple times the response was immediate I liked that he spurred it away that he still had something left in the tank he didn't let's say he didn't look like he was doing it as far as you know I've brought up American Pharoah in the past and he's pretty he's a it's unfair to compare any horse to American Pharoah but Pharoah always did it and I always look for for the ears you always need to look for body language and clues about how horses are traveling how they're looking are they doing it comfortably or they're not doing it comfortably when you see a horse out there with their ears pinned back and it really looks like they're trying I mean if you've got a half mile to go you're probably in deep water if you see a horse out there the half mile to go and their ears are just doing doing this sort of thing kind of like satellite dish you're okay maybe the horse is having some fun and there's still something left in the tank with Pharoah his ears were always straight up he looked like a rabbit all the time never looked like he took a deep breath he'll be a filly I'll speak about in a moment in the boulder mile she did something rather similar but I think it might have been for a different reason charlatan never looked like he was in trouble at any point never really looked like he was trying that hard but at the same time from an optic standpoint he never he didn't look like he was doing it as easily as a horse like a pharaoh or even adjust the fire or any of those and the reason I'm bringing up those names is because people are kind of carrying this horses name in that same light I thought he was awesome and he galloped out pretty well I think he's a special talent I really do I mean he heard a 106 buyer I don't have a time forum us rating right now but I mean I look at charlatans and I say oh baby I mean this horse legitimately could be a special talent and it's a fascinating dynamic in the Baffert barn now between charlatan what an adult just spoke about him and an authentic who I will speak about later on in the Q&A segment I mean you arguably have the three best three-year-olds in your barn in one barn they've seen other folks bring up they share similar running styles you know be fascinating to see when we actually get to that point how they'll all kind of handle that but charlatans a special talent there's no two ways around it you don't go and do things the way that he's done them as easily as he's done them in your first two starts if you wanted to play devil's advocate at Santa Anita going to turns there is no place you'd rather be than on the lead he was able to get out there like I said the fractions were fair nothing you know land speed record wise but boy good horses what when you can see when you can see the visual of them respond to the asking that to me signals a horse that is pretty special and I saw that when van Dyk cracked him with the stick and he leveled off and accelerated that to me is the sign of a good horse that there was still something left he was just out there kind of feeling feeling things out he'll only continue to improve he's an exciting prospect the beholder mile I like to see see going into this race because her return effort I thought was spectacular going shorter visually I thought she looked really really good I think Michael McCarthy is still very very underrated despite what he did with City of Light I think he's a really talented trainer cc earns a 1 a 100 Beyer Speed figure winning the beholder mile I thought she would be even closer to the pace than she was but I kind of in hindsight and looking back on the tape did this to me was even more impressive than the running style that I had sort of drawn up and hoped for in the race because she came from about two lengths off of it but she was wide every step of the way four or five path on the first term probably four or five path down the back side a little bit narrower on the far turn as she moved up and loomed it really started to press hard not to like and or excuse me hard not to love and and she just really kind of put her in her back pocket when the time was was you know when it was go time the the interesting thing for me was and going back to the body wooden ears and I do I know some people will laugh about it and kind of roll their eyes but I think I think looking part of watching replays is being able to decipher what you're seeing not just the obvious oh the horse won by three lengths or the horse came from way out of it and was able to rally off of a hot pace it's watching the horses being able to look for little little things that maybe others are gonna overlook and underestimate the value and the importance of and with a horse like Cece when she made the front you you noted that Victor Espinoza still was pushing on her for a little bit and ultimately he was able to kind of wrap up on her because she had opened up enough but I felt like when she hit the front the ears went up and to me I think she idled a little bit when she got out there now I know that sounds silly because I believe the final margin of victory was was three I think more of the final margin in this instance had to do with hard not to love feeling the effects of two turns of the pace that she set and CC kind of easing up on the gas there's some horses that you really need the time the ride correctly with and again I'm not suggesting that that yeah it's the end-all be-all for cc whether she wins by a half-length or she wins by three and she does I feel a little bit I just thought it was one of those instances where she made the front so early that it was like a my job is done and I wonder if someone else were in the race that was doing any kind of real running which frankly no one really did other than hard not to love you know maybe that would have cost her or maybe that margin would have shrunk a little bit I think it's something maybe you want to keep an eye on with a horse like this where does she need to be does the button need to be pushed at the right time and keep in mind she's very lightly raced things is only her fifth lifetime starting something like that I think the sky's the limit for this horse but I wonder if there are still some quirks that maybe they the connections need to figure out with her and this is just my opinion I'd be curious anybody else's thoughts at Bernier underscore Matt on Twitter or beneath the video player on YouTube I think cc could be a little Breeders Cup his staff not just contender but one of the one of the favorites if she continues on this trajectory I'll be fascinated to see what the plans are for her going forward if look if we have to if everyone has to deal with some sort of a little bit of a hiatus that'll throw a monkey wrench into things but I think the the talent for CeCe I'm really high on her I think she's quite good and again I think Michael McCarthy does a great job hard not to love I don't think she really loses anything in defeat here I think she's best going one turn whether it's a one turn mile whether it's 7/8 of a mile even six might be a hair sharp for her but I think she could do it if they really needed to good news is for the Phillies and there's the big races as far as Sprint's are concerned are at 7/8 that's her bread and butter I she loses nothing in defeat here said a legitimate pace turn her back to one turn I think she's good to go more speed the is airy Serengeti Empress bottoms out the field 101 buyer 119 time form us rating geared down late perhaps the complexion of the race changes a little bit when aw Emma who is likely to be I'll be in an overmatched foe was likely to be the pace that would push Serengeti Empress early on when she dumps the rider out of the gate Serengeti Empress is able to get out there now having said that she went fast throughout and I thought it was a good ride from talam oh use your I mean I say it week in and week out use your best asset your best asset is speed I think it's pretty clear at this point that Serengeti Empress is a need the lead type so if that's the case even if it means dueling yourself into submission I'd rather you get out there and and go and have it not work out but you use your best asset as opposed to trying to get cute you know rate the horse try to bring the rest of the field into the run just go just go because you know what if it doesn't work so be it but if it does you're gonna be able to bottom a field out and it's gonna make it really difficult for anybody else to try to run you down I'd rather you do that do what Alamo did and say whether it works or not we're using our speed to our biggest advantage I mean that that's that's what a horse like Serengeti Empress is blessed with wicked early speed going to turns and if there's no other speed in the race she's dangerous in any race that she runs in if there is other speed gonna make life a little bit more difficult for her perhaps you want to give street band the benefit of the doubt for this race didn't love this she was a bit late with the lead change but street band is a horse that likes to make one run and by default in this race on Saturday she was forced to take up the chase I don't think that's necessarily her preferred running style she didn't run well don't get me wrong I'm not building an excuse none of the other girls ran all that well you can question did they handle the racetrack whatever it was but street bands best game is when you take her back and you make that run as opposed to being the one taking up the chase maybe that's a reason that you want to give her the benefit of doubt if you don't I not gonna blame you just something that I was thrown out there the hurricane birdy down a Gulfstream Park Sally's Curlin I really liked her going into the race she gets the job done at ten to one ninety three buyer one fifteen time form us rating read fractions throughout she had the run of the race they threw it down early on she was able to loop up a little bit of a quirk when she swapped leads at the top of the lane but I think that was brought on because of a little bit of contact from a filly down on her inside she quickly righted the ship and Edgar just points her in the right direction she goes and wins for fun I really like this horse I think she's really talented and I think too many people will look at this and say that's an aberration she had the run of the race the pace melted down yes all of that is accurate but you go through the PPS and I speak about the difference between a 1 turn horse and a to turn horse you know I brought up the idea that I think midnight be soo is exceptional at one turn she's really really good going to turns I've brought up in the past I feel like frosted would have proven to be an exceptional 1 turn horse I don't think that met mile was a one-off he was a really good to turn horse I think he was exceptional at one turn Sally's Curlin if you can pull up the PPS and you have access to Saturday's past performances go through her lifetime for one turn races I include Ellis Park because Ellis parks one mile race is kind of like turn and a half-ish her one turn races are much much better than her to turn races to me she is a 1 turn horse through and through I think is still very interesting in races that maybe down the line people will discredit her and look at and say yeah she's not that good I just need the connections to put her in the right spots don't stretch her out to two turns I don't think she's a to turn horse point for races like the Madison maybe that's a little bit quick now point for races like the Humana distaff you know any of these races going forward these these one turn and if you want to try to stretch her out to a 1/2 mile underneath maybe race Li the Belle Dame does work or a race like the you know the Ogden Phipps but to me one turn keep her at that I think she's sneaky for a race that the Breeders Cup filling a mare sprint I know I'm going way down the line but if you're looking for a race that typically has pace for a horse that excels going one turn 7/8 isn't gonna be an issue for her horse like Sally's Curlin I'm gonna tell you something and I may maybe you do or don't believe me I had a trip on her a note that had she run in the Breeders Cup filly and mare sprint I would have picked her she didn't go there they ran her two turns didn't work out she was laid up she came back and she runs in this race that's how highly I think of her I think she's a really talented 1 turn horse if you're looking for anyone else to take out of that race pause for the cause the horse that were in third she was up there pushing the pace throughout her first start off the bench he's in New York bred it's a giant race for her to push the pace the way that she did and not get totally embarrassed I mean she was in this thing with about 1/8 of a mile to go she just felt the effects of that hot pace early on they went 22 flat 44 in a piece that was a big effort she's one that I've already put in my horse watch because wherever she comes back if she comes back in a New York bred race you're just inherently gonna lose some value but she's one that I wouldn't be afraid to throw back into a grated steak and say let's take a shot the pace dynamics are a little bit different we've got a horse that we know she's gonna have the fitness from that most recent run and maybe with a little bit of a more advantageous setup early on we can do some big things the last comment on the hurricane birdie I he's probably not gonna hear this if Paco Lopez gets this and I mean this in the most positive way possible just go he rode pause for the cause and it panco always does this he's always looking under his shoulder looking looking for just go bud go because you still need to get to the wire first whether they're running behind you or not just ride I always I always bring up sort of the the example I grew I played baseball my entire life I coached for a little bit when you run to first base run through the base don't worry about what the hell's happening out here don't worry if the shortstop boots it don't worry if the third baseman made some wicked you know backhand and play and he's you know trying to make a wild throw as he's going into foul territory straight look at the bag and run through it and then obviously if you're just running through the bag peel out into foul territory because if you turn in to turn in you're into the field play your life peel out into foul territory the idea is don't worry about what's happening they're worried about the only thing you can control and that's you in your mount ride brother ride we know that you're good we know you talented but stop for the love of God stop looking under your shoulder just go go that's all I ask the last race that I guess I'm gonna talk about but I don't have anything to really say Jeff Ruby stakes field past wins with 90 by or 105 time form us rating entertaining race not a lot of passing top four or five horses essentially were that way throughout the run it was a forum full race there I think they were all top four or five choices I don't know what this race really means going forward you know given the synthetic surface I don't think it has any ramifications on I need a big three-year-old races but in time will tell for now yeah I don't have much to add as always if there was another horse this weekend that caught your eye if there's another race another horse in any of these races that you're curious about an opinion you want me to comment on you know the drill they need the video player on YouTube or on Twitter at Bernie or underscore Matt now pick history and Q&A let's wrap up episode six with the updated pic history along with this week's Q&A as far as the pic history is concerned I spoke about it last week I'll do a bit of a slow start the percentages are a little bit low obviously the ROI was low small sample size things are gonna change I expect the numbers to go up this weekend helps kind of you know write the ship a little bit the sample size now is thirty three selections from a win standpoint 21 percent winners with a two twenty ROI overall you'd be up ten percent sixty six dollars wagered seventy two dollars 40 cents have been returned so into the black which is good the wind percentage is still a little light I expect that to be in that sort of as I said somewhere in the twenty to twenty three to twenty five twenty six on a on a good run kind of range so it's not far off but it's still a little on the light side the ROI obviously it's gonna fluctuate more when these sample sizes smaller is the sample size continues to grow gonna certainly need to be more consistent in order to keep it close to the break-even sort of threshold of two dollars so obviously it's always good when you're in the positive but it's a long way to go still a relatively small sample size but nice to finally get back up over the other side as far as the wind plays show is concerned forty eight percent which is that is I know for a fact that's low that should be based on my history in the past I should end up being around fifty five fifty six percent when it's all said and done so still some room to go there 174 ROI that would be down thirteen percent overall $198 wagered $172 30 cents returned that's one of those things where for me the wind play show becomes more valuable when I can catch some of the bigger numbers when I can catch a horse that I like at you know fifteen to one or whatever it may be and they run second and I can get the place and show money so sure it hurts my my bottom line on the wind but I'm not gonna lose two dollars at a time with that as opposed to the wind plays show when I missed the board entirely with one with any horse let alone a big price I'm dropping six bucks at a time that's gonna add up a lot quicker than the two dollars at a time is going to and that's why getting some of those prices to hit the board for me anyway that'll help at least alleviate so maybe I don't have those horses winning all the time when they do it's a bonus but when they at least hit the board and preferably run second that'll at least you know save me for two runs as far as the one play show is concerned so 220 ROI on 21% for the win bets right now 48% 174 ROI for the wind play show keep you posted and hopefully we have racing that we can talk about soon to continue to add to that but looks a little dubious as far as the Q&A is concerned from Alex KITT brick on YouTube Alex thank you for watching and listening can you talk about how you'll handicap a horse like authentic who is buying into mischief as the distances get longer I feel like you can't trust and into mischief I'm gonna read that again I feel like you can't trust into mischiefs to win doing ten furlongs or going ten furlongs and I'll probably end up fading him completely in the Derby historically audible and golden cents are the ones that come to mind for me backing up that argument I apologize for stumbling all over that question that was me typing it while not looking at what I'm writing so autocrat probably took over at some point in there again thank you for the question to sort of go back to it the intimus chips going longer authentic is one of them authentic on the bottom there's not a ton of distance pedigree as well so how do I handle them going and going longer obviously now the schedule could be a little bit in flux but I I went back and watched the San Felipe he looked very comfortable going out there and winning at a mile and a sixteenth he looked very very nice on the gallop out I still believe when I look at a horse in the way that they move in the pedigree and things of that nature I prefer a horse like honor ap out of that race I think added ground will only be to his benefit and as you alluded to Alex you go through and look at some of the best horses that a stallion like into mischief has had for the most part their middle-distance types the milers mile on the sixteenth may be a mile and an eighth but I mean that's pushing it and obviously 7/8 of a mile and in that ballpark when I looked it and when I look at him run he looks very athletic he looks like the kind of horse he's won I was just speaking about the ears situation he had his ears up playing on the far turn Santa need is always such a difficult read for me any of these horses because speed always does so well but especially going to turns inauthentic has been out there all the time going to turns on the lead so does the distance may get mitigated a little bit at a track like Santa Anita because it's just the natural profile is gonna continue to sort of carry them long when I look at him and I see him on the track I wonder I'm like well maybe he's gonna end up being sort of you know is he more of the mile on an eighth type as opposed to the charlatan and then you see someone like like on the doll and I feel like he could be anything I feel like he could go longer maybe he is still best going shorter his pedigree would suggest distance isn't gonna be an issue this horse is the one with the pedigree that I look at and I go mm-hmm I don't know how how confident I would be going longer and I guess the the most simplistic way for me to answer answer the question I'm curious what all the other viewers and listeners have to say it all comes down to price so thus far he's looked good doesn't look like the distance has been a problem for him at any point he continues on very very nicely when I want to settle for him as the second choice or the favorite or the third choice going ten furlongs for the first time against let's say theoretically other horses that maybe their pedigree suggests that they're gonna improve as the distances get longer whatever the case may be I don't know that I'd want to settle for that so I know it's not a great sort of explanation but that's where I stand with this horse I think he's talented I don't think the distance is a major issue right now I just don't know that I need to find out at a short price that ten furlongs isn't his bread-and-butter I hope that is a substantial and suitable answer for you Alex thank you again for listening and watching and I'm gonna need to nip this thing cuz my battery's about to die so for those of you that have listened or watched thank you for doing so wherever you take this thing in please rate review and subscribe follow me on Twitter at Burnie or underscore Matt questions comments concerns we need the video player on YouTube or directly to me on Twitter please stay safe in this time of uncertainty and unknown do your due diligence wash your hands stay on top of things whatever the the higher powers are telling us to do to be safe do then this coronavirus is no joke I'll be back on Monday talking about something as far as racing is concerned stay safe best of luck there's not a lot going on this week but I will say it best of luck however you play whatever you play wherever you play it's been episode six with the map burner your show part of being the money media note [Music]

Channel: In The Money Media Network

Views: 742

Keywords:

Id: TDWx7ZYZflk

Length: 47min 23sec (2843 seconds)

Published: Mon Mar 16 2020