The Matt Bernier Show | Ep. 102 | February 7, 2022

before we get going with this week's show a word from our friends at santa anita park if we're talking santa anita we are talking the pick em contest play for 500 every saturday sunday and holiday monday through april 17th it's a free contest that combines popular sports and racing props for a fun competitive and free contest sign up for free and play from anywhere at santa anita dot com slash pick em that is santa anita dot com slash pick em now on to episode 102. [Music] what's happening welcome to the matt bernier show part of the in the money media network my name is matt bernier you can follow me on twitter at bernie or underscore matt today is monday february the 7th 2022 this is episode 102 of the pod however you listen thank you for doing so you can find it anywhere you listen to your pods for the most part apple podcast spotify soundcloudthemoneypodcast.com you can also watch over on youtube search bar matt bernier show you get this episode along with the 101 prior however you listen please rate review subscribe thumbs up thumbs down bell icon lit up so you get notified anytime new content is uploaded if you're over on youtube to the in the money media channel many things going on here this week only going to focus on the derby preps from this past weekend i know i've been going through and doing the oaks preps i will get to the oaks preps that happened this weekend but just for timing's sake only going to go over the big three as far as the kentucky derby preps are concerned we're going to go over the withers the holy bull and the robert b lewis and we'll wrap things up with a look ahead to super bowl 56 coming up on sunday between the bengals and the rams a few programming things before we get into the prep recaps and the assessments of some of the performances that we saw i am going to hilton head this weekend so the show will not be recorded next monday the next pod will come up next tuesday so for those of you that typically listen to the thing late on monday night most of you check it out on tuesday but basically if you listen to it early on it's probably not going to be there right away won't be recording until tuesday when i get home next week and then the following week the week of the 20th through the 27th uh it's gonna be tbd and i guess even including that next monday which would be the 28th it's going to be a little bit tbd touch and go as far as when i will be recording or when i can record because uh i just don't know what my situation is going to be from an accommodation standpoint uh on the 20th i am heading to riyadh for the saudi cup so i'm going to be joining the world feed out there with nick luck and michelle you and tom stanley so i'm looking forward to that but from a recording standpoint i'm not sure and again there's a giant you know difference as far as time is concerned uh my hope is to do something maybe on tuesday that week that i'm out there that would end up being the 22nd um it just depends on what i have for work things out there and and things like that so we'll try to make some stuff happen that week but just bear with me when we get to that point so the first things first next pod will be next tuesday not next monday and then that following week will be tbd when things are going to come out simply because i'm going to be over in saudi arabia so there's that now let's get into this past weekend okay and as always i i'm very curious to hear your thoughts your opinions whether you agree or disagree i'm just very interested to see what other people have to say about some of these horses we're gonna go over the race from new york the race from florida and the race from california i think there are some really intriguing angles for many of the horses that we saw this weekend both good and bad but i'm very curious and everyone else wants to know your opinions as well because that's i think one of the beauties of this time of year people can agree disagree i just need to know reasons why behind some of that stuff so let me know beneath the video player on youtube or on twitter at bernie or underscore matt let's get things rolling let's go back to saturday afternoon aqueduct ozone park new york the withers chad brown wins again with early voting maybe a bit of a polarizing performance or maybe not so because he came up slow on the clock let's take a look all right first things first you're gonna notice that the second prep the holy bowl i tried to go through and do what i've done in the past showing the replay from youtube unfortunately it's just so choppy that i wasn't gonna go back and do that and i know i recorded sometimes i record that order so that's why this recap with the withers and the bob lewis will both be done just here without any visuals but you can find both replays over on youtube one on naira's the other on santa anita's you can also find the replays anywhere you you know your adw's or any streaming service you may use for replays the withers milon and 8th muddy track at aqueduct although to be fair when you watch the race i don't know how muddy the track actually was uh early voting wins does so is the 6-5 favorite i immediately am very very impressed i liked him going into it thought he would be too short to play in fact he was six to five was far too short for a horse doing everything he was doing for the first time but i thought he looked really good and then you see the fig and he earns a 78 buyer and it's totally fair for the people and there are many out there some more vocal than others about how you know 78 is just flat out slow and it's not fast i will say that it is definitely not fast it's not as fast as what i'll discuss with white of barrio and the holy bowl or messier and the bob lewis but if you're just looking at the fig as being the fig personally i think you're doing yourself a disservice and it's kind of lazy yes 78 buyer does not look sexy at all and it's not going to be fast enough to compete with some of the best from this crop if you just purely look at it from the fact that it was a 78. part of the reason i'm i'm more inclined as time goes by to use timeform us and granted i prefer to use my own eye and i can i could do it without time form u.s but it illustrates and paints the picture in a way that i think folks who who are very black and white can start to understand why the performance in my opinion and in some others opinions is considerably better than 78 would suggest first things first let's talk about the way that the race was run early voting is making his second lifetime start going from a one turn mile to a two turn mile in an eighth taking on winners for the first time and say what you will about the field maybe it was not a very good field i'm willing to you know fully buy in on that but great at stakes runners early voting breaks like a shot goes right to the lead for me when you see a horse respond to cues given by his rider or her rider it especially this early in their career it can be a precursor of things to come bigger and better and maybe it doesn't mean that the next start all of a sudden they're going to become a superstar but in general i think going down the road it's a sign of a horse that is has every opportunity anyway to fulfill expectations as opposed to those that are out there being dummies goofy with lead changes looking around flashing their tail this that and the other early voting listens breaks like a shot jose uses the horse early you see him pin his ears back immediately clears to the front and the minute jose ortiz grabs he relaxes ears goes straight up listening to cues like a like a seasoned vet keep in mind it's a second lifetime start now is when context goes a long way the fractions myelinate that aqueduct in february we know aqueduct is not a track that typically yields fast times in general so when you see 23 and 2 48 14 and 1 final time 55 and four you go well yeah 55 and four i mean you could time it with the sundial fair and that's what a buyer is it's reflective of the final time but when you see an opening quarter of 23 and two a half of 48 flat three quarters and 14 in one time form u.s goes through and basically assesses whether a pace is fast or slow or average not only does time form us have every fraction of the race fast there's also a piece to the timeformus charts that shows the race fractions compared to the adjusted fractions factoring in the track and all that sort of stuff the 23 and two opening quarter an adjusted number according to time form us is 22 and two now just that part alone before we go any farther how many older grade one types going a mile and an eighth have the ability to go with an adjusted number i i know it's not the what the clock said but again context can go 22 and 2 and still have plenty left in the tank down the stretch not many food for thought half mile is 48 flat the adjusted time according to time form us is 45.58 so nearly 45 and 3. for any for a grade one older horse in a race like the whitney or the breeders cup classic or any of those kind of races that would be a very very fast pace we're talking about a three-year-old making his second lifetime start his first start against winners stretching out to two turns so he's out there doing this three-quarters time the normal time or the raw time on the clock 14-1 adjusted ten and four i mean that is that's extremely fast for this time of year for such an inexperienced horse the final time fifty five and four adjusted 50 and 2. buyer associates have this race as a 78 based on the 55 and 4 final time and i'm sure whatever it's in relation to par and all that other jazz time form us has the final pace unadjusted or just let's say the the final time as a 102 okay so again we're going to talk about 20 point differential we're going to talk about that in the race for the holy ball because that's another one where the fig is interesting that would roughly equate to an 82 buyer so not that far off but time form us has the race slightly faster than the buyer team does but then when you factor in the fractions and how fast the horse ran the pace adjusted number for timeform us goes to a 109 which if you've taken 20 off of that gets you to an 89 which if the number came back if the buyer came back in 89 no one is discussing is kind of poo pooing the idea of you know the performance which is fine if you don't care about any of the dynamics i think you're doing it wrong that's just my opinion you do you do what you got to do for this horse and then when you take also into consideration where the rest of the field finished that was in relation or in relatively close attendance to early voting for perspective half mile into the race early voting is two lengths clear on the lead the horse that was second at that point finishes seventh third finishes last of eleven fourth finishes fourth be in let's call it uh six and a half lengths fifth second to last sixth eighth seventh ninth i mean anyone remotely close and even those some of those horses the seventh place finish wasn't even that close anybody within shouting distance of early voting is is up the track they're still running so yes the buyer in the final time not the prettiest it's also something else to factor in inside at aqueduct did not seem to be advantageous on saturday early voting was toward the inside and i think that was just a matter of him still kind of learning being a little bit green it's amazing when you see people who want a completed project in start number two and chad brown has come out and said he doesn't know what the plan is now going forward because this race came back as slow as it did do you go to the one turn gotham do you wait for the wood uh personally i would continue to run the horse i don't have any connection to the horse so they don't care what i think but point is i think there's still a lot here i think he's better than what the buyer number was going to suggest i don't know what any of the other figs are but from a time form us standpoint i think that paints a pretty good picture i think the horse still needs seasoning he still needs to run it's always a gamble i never like the idea of an early season prep we'll wait for the final round and if it doesn't go our way well that's it bubkas we got nothing if you want to go that route and then you say we're going to just hang around and wait for the preakness so be it that's that's entirely you know that's a reasonable path i'm more inclined to say you've got a i think a talented horse still think he needs to learn a little bit wouldn't hurt to take on some other horses try a few different things build up stamina and just i in general i just think he would benefit from racing so whether it is the one turn mile slight turn back and distance i wouldn't be opposed to that um i also wouldn't be opposed to looking for other spots i don't know timing wise as i'm looking something up on the fly as far as different races are concerned if you want to keep him going a route of ground hmm that race is too late i was looking at the tessio that's not going to be until that's still some ways away if you want to still maintain sort of the the two-turn run though you've got a three-year-old steak at laurel march 19th that's a little bit late though if you're looking at the final round of derby preps point is i think you've got options with this horse and if you want to keep them going two turns you can find other spots i don't know if i would wait for the wood uh maybe you send them to the fairgrounds maybe you send them to oaklawn chad doesn't typically go to oakland but you know point is you can do different things with them or you can just keep them at home and turn them back to a one turn mile i think the horse has ability the 78 buyer does not bother me if you're someone and if you're new to this show and you've never heard me before you know that yes i firm believer in figs but context is much more important than just the raw number i'll go back to a horse that i've had success with she dares the devil if you were just purely a fig player no you had no chance of smoking her out in the oaks if you put things into context and you take a look at the visuals and things like that you had a puncher's chance to catch her at 15 or 20 to 1. i but i know it's not for everyone some people just say the letter of the law the number is the number and that's that and that's fine i'm not going to try to convince you otherwise i'm laying out why i don't agree with that but i'm not sitting here saying you're you're you have to think of it this way that's up to you you do you i think this is a pretty good horse now from a prep standpoint he's the only one in the race that i want gilded age got a little bit tired at the end i thought he ran fine but in the grand scheme of things with the pace situation and the way everything played out thought he should have finished better than he did i made it clear going into the race that i didn't love anybody coming out of the jerome they kind of ran that way of course many of them were in relatively close attendance to the pace in general i like early voting i'll give this race as far as a prep rating is concerned i'll give it a seven i believe in early voting he's the only one that i'm interested in coming out of this race but i'm i'm open to the idea that he may not be that fast i don't believe that to be the case but i can understand the reasoning behind it let me know what you think of early voting where should he go next should they go to the one turn gotham a little bit of an unconventional path do you go one turn to two turn mile and eight back to one turn back to two turn mile and eighth do you put them away until the beginning of april and wait for the wood memorial do you ship them out of town do you look at the fairgrounds do you look at gulfstream park do you look at just different areas different avenues i too often and i'm not saying this is the case with chad but i think too often the paths you're taking florida you're taking the the gulf stream route you're taking the tamper out you're taking the new york route you're taking the well why why can't you mix and match if the timing lines up you know what's wrong with saying from here uh let's see i know many people again love hearing someone look something up in a podcast what's wrong with the louisiana derby march 26th yes it's close to the wood memorial and at that point you say well we can give them two more weeks maybe that's that i don't know i'm looking at that race saying we can ship out of town it's a mile and three sixteenths if he runs second we've got our points for the derby if that doesn't work we can either try to rush him into it and try to get one more round whether it's the lexington to catch those couple points that we need to get in if you're really hellbent on making the derby or at that point you say let's wait for the preakness i think there are just different ways to go about it again i don't own the horse it's easy for me to sit here and just riff about it when i don't have any control over any of these things and i'm not paying the bills but i think this is a decent horse i know the fig did not come back fast from a buyer's standpoint context goes a long way the horse ran extremely fast throughout arguably on the worst part of the race track and just anybody who was within you know shouting distance completely was evaporated so i'm curious what everybody else thinks let me know your thoughts about this horse early voting he wins the withers with the 78 buyer time form us is much kinder pace adjusted to 109. let me know what your thoughts are about this horse where he should go next and overall where he fits as far as the three-year-olds are concerned now let's go down to south florida gulfstream park a little bit of an upset pretty big pretty pretty big performance from the winner white of barrio another instance where the figs not really jiving from those two holy bowl gulf stream park a mile on the 16th this is probably the prep that i'm having the most difficult time deciding what i think of it coming into it mo donegal was the horse to beat coming out of it maybe he is maybe he isn't maybe that is why debarrio who ultimately went on to win this race you can find this replay if you want to watch it again and again over on gulfstream park's youtube channel we're going to let the tape run you're going to notice the big first thing that is noticeable is the fact that simplification misses the brake entirely he breaks at the back of the field he figured to be among the leaders where galt down on the inside and the red silks is and where white of barrio the big gray pressing is instead he has to come from well out of it which is something new for this horse and for him to run the way that he did there's encouraging aspects and that he's willing to pass horses there are some things that i didn't love we'll get into that in a little bit on the front goes white of barrio presses throughout the fractions are i think honest i don't think they're fast i don't think they're slow i think they're just honest period 47 and a piece for the half you've got giant game in the west point silks who's in a pretty good position right now he's gonna drop anchor badly and we'll dive more into that when we start talking about some figs at the end of the race and you see mo donegal in fifth right now irad gives him a little tap on the shoulder trying to get him involved i had mentioned with ptf on the late show the player's pod that i just for whatever reason he didn't strike me as a gulfstream horse i don't know if i'm right or wrong in that feeling my feeling hasn't changed but with the way that he runs here i'm not totally sure that i love him at a track like this but again todd pletcher knows a hell of a lot more than i do simplification's making that big move he's in the gray silks from the outside this is a sustain bid so it's understandable that he gets a little bit tired at the end he never changes leads that bothers me a great deal but again another thing that we'll dive into when we talk about the figs meanwhile on the front end why do barrio is now on the lead tyler cuts him loose and he finishes really really well this is a horse that his three starts as a two-year-old they weren't slow but they weren't fast he lived in the 80s 80 81 basically that was it you're very quickly going to see mo donegal on the outside here just come rolling home late again i'm having a very difficult time deciding what i think of this race as a whole let's talk about the figs why do barrio wins he earns 97 buyer speed figure initially when i first saw that i said well you know the visuals kind of check out but very difficult to really i don't want to say make a fig for this because they're you know i mean there's enough as far as past samples and pars and things like that but it was the only mile in a 16th main track race run at gulfstream on saturday white of barrio improves his career best fig by 16 points now considering this is his first start since the end of november that is definitely not out of the realm of possibility but then when you take a look at the rest of the field i think there's some some question marks simplification mo donegal effectively pair up their most recent runs if anything it's a positive i think for simplification because he had to do something different this time around broke slowly going two turns for the first time taking on what i would say pretty decent horses for the first time and for him to rally wide no he never changed leads that does bother me and i'm still not totally convinced that i think he is you know of the i don't say upper echelon but a kentucky derby type there were some positives to pull from it i start to get a little bit leery when i see the mo donegal number that he's paired up his 90s because that to me visually here in this holy bowl did not look like i don't it gets so difficult to say it didn't look like a 90 because that doesn't really make a great deal of sense but it didn't look particularly fast it looked like a horse to me that was running in spots that may not have loved the race track that wanted a lot more ground than the myelin 16 that he got and to suggest that he ran something comparable or equaled basically his best race from last year which was at a mile and an eighth over a much deeper racetrack in new york again not impossible first start since the beginning of december could just be that natural progression from two to three but i'm a little dubious then you get into galt galt and spin wheel are the two that when i saw the figs i said um i don't know if i'm totally buying that ball is a well-beaten fourth in this race he finishes let's call it what almost six lengths behind the winner not only does he earn a career best fig he improves his buyer 22 points from 67 to an 89 yes he was on the lead that'll more often than not lend itself to a horse running you know an optimal fig boy that's a pretty pretty substantial jump and then you look at spin wheel who is still you know basically still running granted first start since the end of november he had a career best figure 65 coming into this race he earns an 80. the bottom three horses in this race i don't think you can use tis the bomb is a turf horse they took a shot in the dirt good on them didn't work that fig doesn't mean anything to me giant game the reason i said we're going to get back to him he dropped anchor basically like he just stopped running on the far turn and i said what what the hell happened here i bet him i liked him i thought the price was right come to find out he displaced i am not a vet uh but as far as i know it makes it very difficult to breathe when they displace if you'll recall a number of years ago something very similar happened in either this race or the fountain of youth with frosted he displaced he had a little surgical procedure he comes back he wins the wood memorial i'm not giving up on giant game just yet if anything maybe you're going to get a little dirtied up for him maybe get a bumped up price but and some people didn't like him coming into this spot that's fine i'm not going to try to convince otherwise but this isn't a fair race to judge him off of cajun's magic kind of interesting because he's a florida bread he ran that 89 when he finished second in one of those stallion races down there uh back in in late september as a two-year-old so it was a giant fig then he more or less runs back to that with an 85 but again the two that stick out to me are galt and spin wheel improving so dramatically mo donegal equaling is 90 when uh visually i mean if if he's earning the 90s and he's not loving the track or he doesn't look all that comfortable i mean is he 105 kind of horse maybe i don't know but white of barrio looked fantastic which made it really difficult for me because when i watched his races as a two-year-old they said hey he's fine i think he's going to jump up nearly 20 points then i look at timeform us and keep in mind there's usually about a 20 point differential between timeform us and the buyers and when those two don't jive if they're not relatively close to that 20-point number that's when you can start to say okay wait a minute something's going on here keep in mind 97 buyer for white of barrio time form us gave him not including the pace a 108. 20 points off of a 108 gonna get you to an 88. 88 is much much different than 97. and that's not even adding in the pace situation which time form us actually all things considered thought it was a relatively soft or advantageous pace situation so he has dropped down to a 106 which would be more in line with an 86 buyer speed figure so that is one element that's interesting simplification a 102 take off 20 gets you to an 82 i can kind of see that mo donegal the 90 that he earned in the remsen he earns a 90 here from a buyer's standpoint time form us had him with a 102 in this spot which would be an 82 buyer which again just he didn't look like he'd love the race track i'm more inclined to buy a horse not loving a track at an 82 than a 90. this is all subjective but this is how i'm looking at the race trying to make heads or tails of it galt a 100 time form us rating would equate to roughly an 80 buyer he actually earned an 89. you have to ask yourself going from a 67 maiden score day after christmas to an 89 in a race where he's well beaten fourth is that the more likely scenario or is it 67 buyer breaking is made and day after christmas moving to what time form us would effectively call an 80 buyer speed figure an improvement of 13 points that to me seems much more reasonable than an 89 but again when you've only got one dirt route at the distance and you've got some horses who perform well and others that don't i'm sure this is not as simple a cut and dry kind of fig as many of us would hope it would be i'm inclined to think that the buyer is a little bit on the high side maybe even as many as 10 points high you take let's say eight to ten let's go with eight i'll even go on the lighter side you take eight off of that you still have an 89 for white of barrio it's still a career best it's still an improved number and to me that's totally reasonable you take eight off of simplification his 91 all of a sudden becomes an 83 given the slow break rallying wide never changing leads flattening out late the 83 to me seems a little bit more likely than a 90. take eight off of mo don and goes 90 that gets into an 82 that's basically the run from two starts back again for a horse that i didn't think particularly looked comfortable at any point in the run until the very end of it i'm a little bit more intrigued by that again eight off of galt's 89 that gets you to an 81. that seems much more reasonable than an 89 to me you as the handicapper need to be the one to go through and make your determinations my opinion is right now i'm looking at this race and thinking a little bit quick i think on the buyer scale but acknowledging that i could be wrong and that this actually may be the accurate number in time form u.s may be too slow but that's my hypothesis on february the 7th as far as the individual horses are concerned why do barrio it sounds like they're going to wait for the florida derby i'm never a fan of that idea of just putting all your eggs into one basket because if he doesn't run in the top two in that race he's not getting into the derby or he's going to be bubble boy if he runs third and he has what 30 35 points that's gonna be really close um he looked really good i don't have any knock against the way that he performed i'm just unsure what i didn't love him coming into it and that's part of the problem for me personally but if the 97 buyer is legit then yeah i mean hell he's one of the fastest three-year-olds of the crop if it's closer to an 89 or a 90 then he's fast uh but he definitely needs to continue to improve simplification i think i've made it clear i'm still not totally sold on him as a triple crown kind of threat uh but this was encouraging he had to deal with some things for the first time and i thought all things considered he overcame some adversity mo donegal i'm still high on the horse i think he's a proper mile and a quarter type um i think he wants more ground personally and i don't think they would ever do it but i shouldn't say that i would i would either be looking at a race like it's going to be too quick for the risen star i'd be looking at the louisiana derby or the wood memorial something one of those two races the wood because he's proving himself an aqueduct going a mile in an eighth louisiana derby because it's a mile and three sixteenths with the longest stretch or one of the longest stretches that you're ever gonna find i i to me he's the kind of horse that you gotta and again keeping in mind todd is todd is todd todd knows what's going on he's a hall of famer for a reason he's one of the greatest of all time for a reason when i watch the horse my opinion i want to give him every opportunity to use that stride to find that top gear he's not a horse that's gonna he's not a ferrari f-150 would be unkind but he's the kind he's like a stock car he's not a formula one car he's a stock car where you really got to run through the gears as opposed to although maybe this new car that that nascar has is a little bit different but as opposed to a ferrari excuse me as opposed to a to a formula one car where it's genuinely you know right through the gears i i feel like a race at fairgrounds at a mile and three sixteenths where at the top of the lane he can still be two or three lengths back but he's gonna he's gonna win that that run down the lane compared to gulf stream where you get a short stretch he may or may not be a great horse rounding the turns if you remember when ptf and i were doing a happy hour i mentioned rounding the far turn at belmont park he looked like he was just kind of spinning his wheels but i i just for lack of a better way of putting it when you watch though when you watch enough races you see how certain horses kind of shape and move he always has felt like a horse that does his best on the straights now maybe that'll eventually be his downfall because i do believe the hallmark of you know potentially exceptional talent is that you can scoot around the benz uh for him i think his best asset is his stamina and long stride and i feel like a race like louisiana derby would be ideal for mo donegal the rest of the field i don't have a lot to say tis the bomb get back to the grass i don't blame him for taking a shot here but put him back on turf and giant game if you're writing him off because of this race uh you're doing it wrong because something happened physically if you don't believe in the horse that's fine but don't use this race as the example because uh when he displaces his palate um you know he can't breathe and i don't know about you but when when i can't breathe it's very difficult to do anything strenuous never mind uh try to race eight and a half furlongs so white of barrio wins the holy bull 97 buyer 108 time form us rating that is not pace adjusted the pace adjusted number is even lower 106. so some discrepancies there uh let me know your thoughts are about the figs about visuals things like that from this kentucky derby prep race at gulfstream now let's go to the fastest derby prep of the season so far on sunday to bob lewis from santa anita park i realize i didn't give a prep rating for the holy bull i'm gonna call it a seven because there's a real chance that it was a breakout performance for white of barrio and all the other things that i laid out you know maybe my feelings on certain things are incorrect uh but i also don't want to go all in on certain numbers that i don't know that i fully buy into therefore i'm only going to give it a 7. the race on sunday the bob lewis probably the first real wow performance of the prep season i would say at least for the three-year-olds messier wins for baffert earns a 127 time form us rating and a 103 buyer's speed figure he wins final margin is 15 lengths beneath john velasquez i said it on the late show the late week show for the players pod but i just didn't think messier was very good um and it's please keep in mind too and i when i tweeted it after the race on sunday it's all relatively speaking i mean obviously the horse is talented and he can run fast but in relation to his contemporaries and meaning derby prospects i just didn't think he was really all that good he had run three consecutive low to mid 80 buyers uh baffert had continued to go back and forth with the equipment you know blinkers off blinker's back on blinkers off again in this spot so to me it felt like he was trying to figure this horse out because maybe he did think there was more there and you know again say what you will i'm not getting into all the you know the weeds there but baffert knows what he's doing with with horses so clearly him tinkering with equipment trying to figure out okay how do we unlock the full potential of this horse so the blinkers come off he goes right to the front and destroys the field again 103 buyer 127 time form us rating i'm looking at it going hey man i i was wrong i've been wrong a million times before i'll be wrong a million times again and i still was wrong but the only thing that i'm gonna throw out there for caution with this race because visually he looked great professional drew off i mean he looked like a good thing you go through and look at all the charts and you watch the replays santanita on sunday i've said it before i'll say it again from a running style standpoint the track profile two turns on dirt you need to be on or near the early lead to truly have a chance to win sunday was even a greater exception because you couldn't do anything unless you were on the lead all of the dirt races on sat on sunday i'm gonna go back starting with race two six furlong maiden claimers not a good group but not a bad group i mean maiden claimers hundred thousand dollars the winner gate the wire the second place finisher second from start to finish race number three is the lost virginist it's a race that i will talk about next week with a dare manner the opening quarter she's a half length off of it from there she takes over she goes off and wins by 13. effectively gate to wire the horse that was second ends up positioning herself about a length off of the runner-up so no she wasn't second throughout but basically at the three-quarter mark she picks it up she goes into second and she stays there race number four maiden claimers seven fur lungs these are twenty thousand dollar maiden claimers the winner gate the wire the runner-up third throughout the third place finisher fourth throughout you needed to be on or you need to be on the lead to have any chance to win race number six maiden specials going six the winner is a head off quarter half takes over top of the lane and holds on you did have one horse and heaven's music make up a little bit of ground but even a half mile into the race was only two lengths off of it three lengths off of it race number eight is this race messier right to the front nobody catches him sir london if this is really from being frank a terrible performance unless something happened that i don't know about it was a terrible performance given the race track he was right there pressing messier and he just couldn't go on with it he packed it in cabo spirit who was third effectively inherits second and finishes second seven lengths clear of wharton and race number nine the finale starter allowance six and a half furlongs the winner first threw out the runner-up second throughout the third place finisher fourth and then picked up third late you needed to be on the lead it was a conveyor belt so why am i saying this typically when you have major biases you're going to see exaggerated margins of victory and exaggerated figs now that doesn't mean that messier without a very advantageous racetrack was going to run in 85 on sunday he was he ran fast you can't argue that did he run 50 was he 15 links better than the rest of the field and by the way the runner-up was seven lengths clear third third was four and a half clear fourth so i mean you're talking about a five horse field that was spread out over the course of a half mile i i don't believe i think you need to take all of those results with a grain i think they're all very good messier was good their manner was good to be expected are they that good i am not ready to buy into that just yet especially knowing that off of these performances they're gonna be odds on wherever they show up next he's better than i gave him credit for but i don't think he's as good as what we saw on sunday i think he had everything go his way and that's when you're going to see horses run their best 103 buyer 127 timeform us rating i'm not arguing the figs but again context goes a long way when everything breaks your way and you're able to get out there and set a moderate tempo on a race track like that yeah man there's gonna be showtime it's gonna be time to hit the jets down the lane he's a good horse better than i gave him credit for and i reiterate that i don't know that all of a sudden i think he's the best of the bunch uh i'm gonna give this an eight as far as a prep rating is concerned because messier look even again if you wanted to take a few points off he's still probably a mid to high 90. that was a big effort i still think there's some decent talent in here cabo spirit you know i'm not sitting here saying that i think all of a sudden he's going to be a derby contender i still believe in wharton especially given the fact that he had no chance with the way this track played trying to rally from off of it sir london i don't know what you want to do with that that was a really really bad performance and you know maybe at this point you take a look the three times he has not procured the lead early he's lost the only time that he was on the lead he won you know maybe we're getting into that territory and happy jack again very similar to the idea with wharton i don't i don't think you can use this race really as a barometer are they as good as messier maybe not probably not but they had no chance trying to rally from fourth and fifth with the way that track played let me know what you believe about messier santanita any of the three-year-olds that came up on this show or going forward what you think next week is uh taking a look at some of the races that are going to be going on you're going to have uh the tampa bay derby no i'm a month too late i'm sorry or a month early i should say sam f davis and the el camino rail derby a couple of solid enough races the sam f davis that's going to be the path through tampa the el camino real say what you will i know it's it's a synthetic surface but you're going to get a horse that'll learn 10 points and then maybe that makes them and the connections think okay well we're going to go to the jeff ruby are we going to go to you know one of the other races on dirt who knows but fact is messier ran fast and he's better than i gave him credit for being i don't think he's that good though i don't think he's a 103 at the beginning of february good could be wrong didn't been wrong before be wrong again you give the preparation marble mouth preparating an eight he's good i still i want to see more and against better company i can't even speak right now i want to see more against better competition put it that way uh messier gets the job done in the bob lewis again he's not awarded any points because he's in bafford's barn at the moment uh but this is definitely a horse that i can see some folks saying he is the he's the horse to beat as far as the three-year-olds are concerned i'm not convinced yet that that's the case but he is certainly among the leaders uh based on this race in the lewis let me know your thoughts about any of these races and any other races or horses beneath the video player on youtube or on twitter at bernie or underscore matt now let's pivot and wrap things up this week with a look ahead some projections for the big game coming up on sunday let's wrap up this week's show with a look ahead some projections for super bowl 56 coming up on sunday afternoon if you're on the east coast it'll be at 6 30 if you're on the west coast it'll be at 3 30. uh it is the cincinnati bengals and the los angeles rams in case you've been living under a rock and you didn't know that the spread right now is rams favored by four and a half the total is 48 and a half at most books uh i was way off when i first right after the rams and 49ers game concluded i said what do you think the spread's gonna be six and a half uh you know and people ran wild with that which is fine and maybe i realistically looked at it more of what i think the game should be as opposed to making sure there's the same amount of money on either side the number has moved from four to four and a half it feels pretty firm at four and a half i don't know if it'll move to five or go back to four but uh as things are currently constituted we have no real major injuries to deal with uh at least over the past week or so i'm gonna go through offer up a projection of the game and player projections and we've seen over the course of the postseason the player projections have been very very good uh with the exception of a couple of duds but that's going to happen with any kind of a model so here we go cincinnati bengals los angeles rams i have the rams defeating the bengals 27 to 22 which would be just covering the four and a half uh as far as the total is concerned it would be at 49 which would be just getting over the 48 and a half um i have one sim that has the rams winning 23 to 19. i have another that has them winning 32 to 24. so do with that which you will many more points scored in one version uh the rams winning by considerably larger number in one version i have two other sims that i'm not going to get into but effectively when it all comes together ram's 27 bengals 22 rams winning super bowl 56 now from a projection standpoint and there are a lot of props out there that you can play around with depending on what books you're using or any of that kind of stuff joe burrow 25 for 35 324 one touchdown one interception matt stafford 26 for 37 306 two touchdowns and a pick joe mixon 18 for 64 and one touchdown sony michelle 11 for 45. jamar chase eight targets five catches 107 yards one touchdown t higgins nine targets six catches 98 yards beyond that you've got a bit of a mixed bag i've got mixing three for 25. um really the big ones are chasing higgins chase five for 107 and a touchdown higgins 6 for 98 on the ram side of things cooper cup 11 targets nine catches 136 yards and a touchdown van jefferson three catches for 56. higbee i believe he's playing could be wrong uh if he does 444 that's about it um the kickers i don't have anybody missing anything there are some fun props out there with those sort of things uh but those are the the big numbers the big projections anyway burrow 25 for 35 324 a touchdown and a pick stafford 26 for 37 306 two touchdowns and a pick uh rushing nothing substantial other than mixing with touchdown 18 for 64. sony michelle 11 for 45. and again the big receivers to keep an eye on chase five for 107 and a touchdown higgins six for 98 in cooper cup 9 for 136 and a touchdown the rams winning the super bowl 27 to 22 going over 48 and a half and covering four and a half but barely on both sides let me know what your projections are or your prediction for super bowl 56 or being the video player on youtube or on twitter at bernie or underscore matt as i said about all the programming over the next few weeks you can go back to the top of the show and listen to that thank you for listening however you're doing so whether it's apple podcast spotify soundcloud in the moneypodcast.com or over on youtube search bar matt bernier show you get this episode along with 101 prior until next week which will be next tuesday best of luck however you play whatever you play wherever you play enjoy the super bowl this has been episode 102 of the map burning your show [Music] you

Channel: In The Money Media Network

Views: 693

Keywords:

Id: SsMhAU3d2bc

Length: 50min 15sec (3015 seconds)

Published: Mon Feb 07 2022