The insanity of nuclear deterrence | Robert Green | TEDxChristchurch

in 1968 I was a 24 year old of Tennant navigating strike jets from an aircraft carrier I was among four of the best crews in my squadron and we were given the honor to be a nuclear crew with a top-secret security clearance the buzz intensified when we were told what a huge responsibility this was we were being entrusted with the last are playing a part the last-ditch defense of Great Britain our target was a Soviet military air base outside Leningrad formally subpoenas birth after we had planned how to attack it we were told not to discuss it we obeyed and proudly celebrated initiation into this elite within an elite after a few years I switched to anti-submarine helicopters our slow lightweight torpedoes could not catch Soviet nuclear submarines so we were given a nuclear depth bomb unlike my strike jet my helicopter was too slow to escape the detonation I realized that this would be a suicide mission well I complained my leaders my leaders reassured me that we would probably never have to use it besides I didn't want to cut short a promising career did I I fell silent but doubt set here in 1978 my silence was rewarded as a newly promoted commander in the Ministry of Defence in London assisting an Admiral responsible for advising on nuclear policy mrs. Thatcher became prime minister and she wanted Trident an American nuclear-armed missile system launched from huge militarily useless submarines my Admiral warned that it's it was far too destructive for Britain's needs and its massive cost would mean cuts in warships that were militarily useful mrs. Thatcher drove the Trident decision through then sure enough her government announced warship cuts to pay for it so I applied for redundancy my application was approved one week into the 1982 Falklands War between Britain and Argentina I had to stay on until after we had one and I had handed over my job which was running a forty strong intelligence team in the command bunker outside London that war was a close-run thing some of our ships were sunk and colleagues killed if an aircraft carrier or troop ship had been taken out we could have faced defeat what would mrs. Thatcher have done before the war she was the most unpopular British Prime minister in history now her political career at stake she became the Iron Lady after I left the Navy I was reliably informed that there had been a top-secret contingency plan to move the patrolling British nuclear-armed submarine within range of Argentina that raised the nightmare for me of a desperate British leader with nuclear weapons and the shameful possibility of our submariners being ordered to commit a pointless war crime after all British nuclear weapons had not deterred Argentina's president general Galtieri from invading the Falkland Islands with victory in his grasp what a nuclear threat have even been believed let alone worked less than two years later my beloved aunt and mentor Hilda Morel was murdered she was an anti-nuclear campaigner and the police did not investigate her bizarre murder properly I received information from several reliable sources that agents of the British security service mi5 had been involved outraged I felt betrayed by my beloved country's corrupt government my support for nuclear deterrence collapsed with the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War I now know that nuclear deterrence is an ineffective unlawful and utterly immoral strategy to prevent nuclear war let's look at three aspects of nuclear deterrence first does it in fact prevent war just because World War three hasn't broken out yet doesn't mean that nuclear deterrence has prevented it arch-rivals India and Pakistan are into a nuclear arms race despite a common border aping the irresponsible example of the former colonial masters the British they naively believe that this is their path to security and greatness blind faith in nuclear deterrence has emboldened both sides to launch provocative military actions into disputed Kashmir several times so despite the fact that each side is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons the risk of war has increased second to be credible nuclear deterrence must never fail this requires demonstrating the capabilities plans and determination to use nuclear weapons which brings me to number three is nuclear deterrence a rational strategy after all initiating a nuclear attack against the nuclear-armed opponent would basically be suicidal an irrational opponent knows that nuclear retaliation will be no more than pointless revenge unlike the aftermath from conventional war nuclear war will leave a vast radiated wasteland a medical catastrophe for any survivors climate scientists Alan robock and Brian tune have run a computer model of what would happen if a South Asian nuclear war broke out apart from millions of dead untreatable survivors radioactive poisoning and apocalyptic destruction across South Asia the smoke alone from fire storms over cities would blot out the Sun around the entire northern hemisphere causing massive crop failure and global famine the robotkind tuned simulation involves just 100 nuclear weapons yet the United States and Russia each still have nearly 1,000 nuclear weapons at 30 minutes notice or less for launch another 5,000 nuclear weapons on each side are held in reserve the seven other nuclear-armed States China France Great Britain India Pakistan Israel and North Korea have another 1000 nuclear weapons between them since the nuclear weapons were first deployed in the 1950s there have been many close calls what's more horrifying is that most of these have been infant due to malfunction human error or misunderstanding in 1962 the Soviet Union placed nuclear-armed missiles in Cuba targeting the United States in retaliation for United States missiles placed in Turkey u.s. President Kennedy threatened the Soviets with nuclear attack because he didn't know that those Soviet missiles were nuclear-armed and that there were Soviet operators in Cuba ready to use them I remember aged 80 my anxiety when the whole world held its breath catastrophic nuclear war was averted by luck and a secret agreement to withdraw missiles from Turkey and Cuba less than 30 years later Iraq invaded Kuwait 1990 speaking to 20,000 anti-war protesters in London I ward but if Salim Hussain felt personally threatened he could attack Israel with conventionally armed Scud missiles and become the Arabs champion if one Scud attack caused excessive casualties Israel's leader would come under massive pressure to respond with a nuclear strike on Baghdad a week after I spoke Israelis learned that their nuclear deterrent had failed 39 scout attacks from Iraq caused miraculously few casualties the Americans rushed more anti Scott Mossad defenses there and congratulated Israel on its restraint fast forward five years in 1995 a Norwegian research rocket was misidentified by Russian radar as an incoming United States nuclear strike the Russian leader activated his special briefcase authorizing nuclear armed submarines to prepare for launch a test catastrophe was avoided by a few minutes which brings me to the ongoing crisis in Northeast Asia custom built to showcase nuclear deterrence mad bad North Korean leader Kim jong-un is portrayed as the new Hitler but with nuclear weapons so Donald Trump declares that if the United States is threatened either itself or its allies they will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea that makes Trump little better than Kim both have bought into the bogus mantra that only nuclear deterrence can guarantee their country's security the United States claims to provide a nuclear umbrella protecting its allies South Korea and Japan but if nuclear deterrence fails those countries become targets while the United States mainland would remain relatively untouched so nuclear deterrence for them is actually more like a sieve but all is not lost more and more people are realizing that this is an ineffective and inexcusable strategy and they're starting to do something helpful about it I joined the veterans in Britain who became my friends after many of my former colleagues shun me I also was befriended by seasoned anti-nuclear campaigners one of whom I married here in nuclear-free New Zealand in 1997 soon after my anti-nuclear shift received support from a sensationally well-qualified veteran in his last job from 1992 to 94 General Lee Butler United States Air Force was commander in chief of the entire American nuclear war machine yet when he examined it in detail he was so horrified by the incoherent madness of nuclear deterrence planning that after retiring he spoke out against it and back in 1999 I accompanied him and another reassuring convert former United States Defense Secretary Robert McNamara to urge the Japanese government to stop relying on the United States nuclear protection on the 7th of July this year in New York I witnessed 122 United Nations member states successfully negotiate and adopt a treaty to prohibit nuclear weapons this built upon a historic judgment over 20 years ago by the International Court of Justice in answer to the question is the threat or use of nuclear weapons in any circumstance permitted under international law i chaired the british arm of that international campaign which persuaded most UN member states to agree to ask the court that question in its judgment the court confirmed that the threat let alone use of nuclear weapons would generally be illegal no surprise that the three leading guardians of nuclear deterrence the United States Great Britain and France led a boycott of those negotiations furiously protesting that the irresponsibility and naivety of those 122 supportive states ironically the absence of the nine nuclear-armed States was why the negotiations raced along in a wonderfully cooperative spirit and succeeded New Zealand was a leading negotiator as the first ally of a nuclear-armed state to have rejected nuclear deterrence over 30 years ago there's more good news this year the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons which played a leading role in mobilizing public and political support for that treaty most importantly for my successes in the Royal Navy who have to be ready to do the dirty work of pressing the nuclear weapon launch button for their posturing political leaders this treaty strengthens the stigma against nuclear deterrence the main difference between military professionals and terrorists is that military professionals need to act within the law that is why chemical and biological weapons are not recognized by military professionals as weapons at all they are indiscriminate terror devices which have been outlawed and abolished nuclear weapons are far worse for all these reasons nuclear deterrence is no more than a repulsive unlawful protection racket used as a counterfeit currency of power but hugely profitable for the corporate arms industry the power elites of the nuclear-armed states are in denial that their game of nuclear chicken really does threaten the survival of us all but the tide of history is at last churning towards justice it is time for us all to step up and end the threat to humanity in the planet from this irresponsible hoax holding us all hostage thank you you you

Channel: TEDx Talks

Views: 510,113

Keywords: TEDxTalks, English, Global Issues, Government, Military, Nuclear weapons, War

Id: nH6xkjMNdnk

Length: 19min 44sec (1184 seconds)

Published: Wed Dec 13 2017