The Illusion of Certainty: Risk, Probability, and Chance

Welcome everybody. We have for you tonight Probability, risk, and chance. But before the fun starts lmao. Something serious, a serious scientific experiment that you are all going to be apart of. An experiment on ESP. Extrasensory perception. Aaliyah Allen You all have cards, take out those index cards and the pencils you were given. And I have something, it's a quarter. You just have to take my word for it. It's a regular quarter. Heads on one side, Tales on the other. I'm going to use this quarter to generate a random message. And I'm gonna try my best to transmit it to all of you. And your best to receive it. Okay, the message is going to be five coin flips. Five heads or tales. Now you just write down "H" for heads or "T" for tales.

Channel: World Science Festival

Views: 526,136

Rating: 4.6966643 out of 5

Keywords: The Illusion of Certainty, Risk Probability and Chance, science of risk, science of probability, What are the odds, science of odds, ditch the data and go with our gut, demystify chance, Monty Hall problem, Marcus du Sautoy, Amir Aczel, Gerd Gigerenzer, Leonard Mlodinow, Josh Tenenbaum, VerizonMath, VerizonMath Original Recording, What is the birthday problem, New York, world, science, festival, NYC, New York City, full program, 2011, Big Ideas Series

Id: BcMuYhoL38A

Length: 88min 2sec (5282 seconds)

Published: Wed Jan 07 2015

Reddit Comments

[u/JurijFedorov]

I really like this planned style of discussion. It does seem more like a lecture with a lot of questions to the audience in it. And there are a lot of good information here too.

Every few minutes they do a demonstration that illustrates their points.

[u/TheManWithAPlan997]

Amazing lecture, thanks for posting this.

[u/Bunjil]

Nice find. Thanks