- The American car is
driving right into the space age electronics,
transistors and computers. It dramatizes is the ceaseless search by inspiring minds for better
transportation tomorrow. - A few weeks ago, during my usual routine of ignoring responsibilities
in favor of goofing off, I found this post on the
R slash car sub Reddit. The title read anyone else
wish we weren't heading towards an e-vehicle boom slash global warming catastrophe so that we can enjoy V8's with peace of mind? The Opie then goes on to express
envy towards older drivers who got to experience the muscle car era in person and how that's
not really possible now that cars are more likely
to focus on efficiency. And the fact that they're also really,
really expensive nowadays. What caught my attention was
how many people responded to the post. Nearly 2000 users weighed
in on their own thoughts on the currency of cars
and where things are going. There is no denying that the car scene is
going to have to deal with some major changes
in the next 25 years. And that's what I want
to talk about today. Thanks to Fiverr for
sponsoring today's video. We here at Dunham make an
insane amount of content each with its own unique needs,
but throughout people working behind the scenes, which
is why we sometimes turn to our friends at Fiverr
for our freelance needs. Fiverr connects businesses with
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and 24 hour turnarounds. And to prove just how great Fiverr, we hired a variety of
freelancers to finish this ad in a bunch of different ways. Maybe it's something as simple
as I need to be live action and have an animated dragster around me with a
functioning engine, or maybe I need to be a stick
figure, walking across pages discussing how cars go from a sketch and a book to a real life working car or maybe we need something
to showcase my massive fear for what the future of cars is like. Will they be all electric? Will we never be able to
drive our vintage patina cars? Will there finally be flying cars? So whatever it is you need
to make your project happen or if you have a special skill of your own signup for fiverr today. Head to FVRR.CO/DONUT and use code donut to save
10% on your next purchase. Now let's check out the future of cars. If you've Been keeping up with the auto industry you've probably noticed a strange trend in how manufacturers talk about
themselves and their future. Back in 2017, both Ford and Toyota announced they'd
reformed their operations into that of mobility companies rather
than automobile manufacturers. Then in 2019 Daimler financial services which operates brands
like Mercedes, my back and Freightliner changed
its name to Dahmer mobility. It sounds like the auto industry isn't just about building
and selling cars anymore. They're about getting people around. Add on top of that, the announcements by government saying they
want to outlaw the sale of internal combustion engines and companies committing
to win all electric future. It's clear that we're in for
a very different era of cars. Very soon. Nobody can accurately predict the future but let's take some educated guesses at what the next 25 years
might look like for cars. One year from now. Some good news is, is that our very immediate
future looks pretty good, even though it feels like
self-driving electric robot cars are going to take over any minute. Now, the reality is we're currently in a golden age of fun cars. They are without exaggeration
the best they've ever been with some really cool
stuff coming out very soon. Within the next 12 months,
we'll see the new Bronco new BRZ, new Nissan, Z,
and the refresh Mustang. All of these will have
manual transmissions. We might also see the gr Corolla which might be all wheel
drive, like the gr Yares which we did not get in the United States. Still not about that. My point is these are all cars aimed at younger enthusiasts like us and prove that the sports car is
very much still alive. One big shift in the news right now
causing some alarm is company after company halting development on their internal combustion engines. Mercedes kind of got
the ball rolling in 2019 announcing that there will
be no next generation engines from the brand Audi and VW
followed suit earlier this year. And very recently Honda
announced their intention to go completely electric by 2040. Very understandably people go nuts on social media every time this happens. And I get why I love an AMG V8 and a Honda four banger
as much as the next guy but I need you guys to
calm down for a second. This isn't gonna happen overnight. In every press release,
laying out these plans. They always always say they'll continue tweaking
their current engines for more efficiency and more
importantly, more power. The internal combustion
engine is at its peak. They literally cannot make them any better without making them way more expensive. It would be stupid for
them to throw out this technology in favor of
electric when the Evie infrastructure just isn't quite there yet. Plus think of like the LS
I think has been around for like 35 years. They're still tweaking it. So they're not going to go away. Not just yet. Manufacturers are going
to keep building engines for good while, especially
in places that have no Evie support speak up
like your mom's house. 2025 3 German manufacturers making
similar announcements to drop internal combustion
engines is not a coincidence. They're all motivated by one, the very real VW diesel gate scandal and how much scrutiny that brought on all manufacturers and two,
stricter emissions guidelines in the European union
called Euro seven standards which are slated to take effect in 2025. Euro seven would drastically
reduce the amount of emissions allowed by manufacturers to a level that is borderline impossible with today's engine technology. Critics and industry insiders, alight compared these regulations
to a backdoor prohibition. The EU wouldn't outright ban the engine. This make it super duper hard for any car maker to meet the regulations. This ordinance makes more sense in context of the EUs ultimate goal, which
is to have quote, an economy with net zero greenhouse
gas emissions by 2050. That's a pretty lofty goal. We also got to keep in mind that the Euro seven guidelines
haven't been set in stone. They're just looming off in the distance which might've been the
goal all along, but even just announcing these intentions, 3 major companies have backed
off gas engine development. With these circumstances in mind, here's my prediction for 2025. Germany will still be known in the U S for the
luxurious and meticulously engineered rides. But now in an electric flavor. We're already seeing
this come to fruition, but Porsche Tycon is one of the most futuristic
cars I've ever driven. I freaking love it, but it still feels like Porscha, Mercedes is showing off the 2022 EQS, which isn't just nice for
an electric car, but one of the comfiest rides you can buy. I also think some German cars
will keep their gas engine as long as they can, like the Porsche nine 11 and the AMG GT they'll
need to figure out how to make an electric car sound good
before they give those tars Evie powertrains. But in the meantime,
cleaner fuels like the stuff Jeremiah was talking about a few weeks ago might keep the internal
combustion engine alive. For some time. We just don't know yet 2030 It turns out the predicting
the future is a pretty fruit and speculative, but lucky for me a lot of the work has been done for us. In their 2016 mobility report automotive revolution
perspective towards 2030 McKinsey and company said that quote automotive incumbents
can not predict the future of the industry with certainty. This report done in conjunction with Stanford university lays out some let's say general trends
and paints a picture for what we can expect by 2030 the report puts a lot of
weight into shared mobility the catchall term for ride
sharing, public transit any method that gets you somewhere that you don't own personally. McKinsey speculates that with the ever-increasing
popularity of ride sharing apps like Uber and Lyft car sales
will undoubtedly be effective but not as drastically
as you might expect. At the time of the
reports released in 2016 vehicle sales were
steadily increasing three and a half percent per year. McKinsey expects that to drop to 2% with cars being
used for ride sharing being replaced more often. Alongside ride sharing getting more popular and
car ownership declining, The McKinsey report holds
two more interesting insights for 2030. The first is the prediction that up to 15% of cars will be fully autonomous even though the report was written in 2016 that sounds pretty low. And for that reason, I think
that's pretty accurate. Autonomous cars have been in the news a lot lately and
for mostly not great reasons. Getting a car to drive itself reliably and safely in real-world
conditions is incredibly difficult. And it will be one of the defining tech
milestones of our lifetime. It's okay that it hasn't happened yet. It's hard, but in the same
way that German luxury brands will most likely
become fully electric, I predict that full autonomy
will also be reserved for the luxury market
because it's expensive. But not only that, the infrastructure to support these cars is a bit spotty. Right now, existing self-driving tech
is housed in the car itself meaning the machine has to figure out the environment on
its own, but it's not a stretch to imagine the
road itself communicating to cars and helping them down the road. Imagine a traffic signal. It was communicated with self-driving cars
and coordinated traffic. We're in a strange
transitionary period right now. As more self-driving cars get on the road, I could see self-driving
function being limited to freeways and interstates
only as the engineers and cars learn how to deal with the more complex city traffic. That might be happening already. I don't really know, but like I'm imagining like
you do it on the 10 and then you just press the
button, drive me to Sacramento. And it just goes all the way up to I five. And then ironically, the
self-driving cars can't go faster than the speed limit if you're just getting
passed by Beamers, right? And left Infiniti, QX 60
blown by on the I five. Cause you can't go one
10, like you normally can. I've never sped on the I five. The final insight in the
McKinsey mobility report that's relevant to this video, it's less about cars
and more about markets. Right now, OEMs usually refer to market by their region like the
American market or the the Asian market or the
European market take your pick. But McKinsey says that city
type will quote, replace region as the most relevant
segmentation dimension that determines mobility behavior. In simpler terms, New York and Los Angeles will soon have
more in common as a market with Shanghai those cities
would, would say Kentucky. Again this is kind of obvious and
something we already see. For example, rural California's
love their pickup trucks but I don't see a lot of them in LA because
there's nowhere to park one. So what does this mean for you, the car nerd. well expect
even more crossovers in the market, expect more
robots sharing the room I rode with you, duh, but third,
and this is not a connection the report makes, maybe
expect some foreign models we don't get here. Here's my reasoning. If governments get together
and enact similar emissions and safety standards around the globe I could see manufacturers bringing cars to our cities that have been proven in similar cities on the
other side of the planet. So like if a car works really well in say Mumbai or Los Angeles,
maybe those cars get shifted around. All these OEMs use
global platforms, right? Change it up, some styling here and there
to appeal to certain markets. Boom, but that will only
come to pass if 2035 it doesn't completely change everything. 2035. Nobody really knows what manufacturers will be doing in 14 years. But we do have an idea of what some governments want to do. Case in point state of California,
executive order ends 79 20 AKA the great gasoline
engine ban of 2035. Okay. That might be overselling it but here's what it is. In this executive order,
Governor Gavin Newsome lays out his plan for a
carbon neutral California which hinges on prohibiting the sale of new passenger cars powered
by internal combustion engines by 2035 with medium and heavy duty
trucks following in 2045. the governor would also like
to improve public transit and micro mobility. You know, bike lanes,
obviously this executive order caused quite the hullabaloo
when it was announced last year. But despite our somewhat
hippy reputation here we Californians love our cars. We've got sick racetracks drag racing was invented here. Southern California is still
a hotspot for car culture. But if the state actually pulls us off it could have ramifications
across the country. Other states might follow suit. It happened before with our
carbon emission standards. If a manufacturer wants to sell a car in the U S it has to meet
the strictest regulations in the country, which we
have here in California. There's been a lot of
discussion about this a lot of debate, but what
can we actually expect? Well, first up this executive
order wouldn't mean the end of gasoline engines
altogether, just in new cars. We'd still be able to buy
used cars that run on gas. You just wouldn't see them
on the showroom floor. Secondly, and more importantly it's an executive order, not a law. This is just the governor
directing state agencies to start working towards this
goal has no legal binding. Thirdly, this is probably
where the market is going to go anyway with or
without the state charming yet. As Evie and hydrogen technology advances it's going to get a lot
better and a lot cheaper and therefore into the
hands of a lot more people. For example, the 2007
Tesla Roadster had a range of about 250 miles, a top speed of one 30 and a retail price of $98,000. Today you can order a model
three with a 350 mile range a top speed of one 45
and a price of $40,119. 14 years from now in 2035 all those numbers are going
to be way more impressive. Executive order or not. 2041. That's 20 years from now. I'll be 48. I hope. Sp long as I don't get
into a fight with one of those robot dog things,
I should make it. By then barring anything
cataclysmic, EVs are going to be approaching majority status. There will probably still
be a lot of old internal combustion cars on the road,
especially in rural areas. Which brings up the event I'm looking forward to
the least in this video and that is trying to buy
one of these old things. A few weeks ago, we talked
about online car auction sites and the effect they've had
on today's market and how certain car values are already
being inflated by collectors with deep pockets when there
are less and less gasoline cars on the road and by extension way less cars with manual transmissions,
I can see this problem getting much more expensive. For future people, if you have an even mildly interesting car with an internal combustion
engine, hold onto it. If you can enjoy it, but hold onto it. There's a decent chance
that in 20 years you can get good money for it. I'm not saying you should panic
and go buy something right now in hopes that it will gain value. That's not how you should
treat cars, but Hey someone might want your bone stock 2020 Corolla hatch in the future just saying. 2046. Okay. We made it 2046. 25 years in the future,
3 years before the events of blade runner 2049. Well, we have flying cars,
unlikely check out our podcasts and flying cars to see
why that's the case. Well, I look like Ryan Gosling
also unlikely, probably more like Harrison Ford,
honestly, no way to give you an accurate guess of what
happens that far in the future but that won't stop me from trying. Earlier we talked about
autonomous cars and how by 2030 we might see 15% of cars on the road being able to completely drive themselves. But as we know, technology often improves
at an exponential rate. Futurists predict that by the mid 2040s, autonomous cars will be even more grand into our society, especially in large city centers. According to futurist Rohit Talwar, it's conceivable that in
the years leading up to 2040 the computing power within our
cars will become so powerful that the idea of the car will
transform into a quote, always on highly connected, self
monitoring, self managing technology platform, not
to something to get you from a to B, but a part
of a larger system. A cog in the machine that is mobility. In a lecture by futurist, Gareth Leonard, he lays out the idea that
changes in transportation are really changes in culture. And that every city will have a different need for transportation. I mean, we already see this
in the U S right, cities like New York and Chicago are super dense or public transit is awesome. And you don't need a car. Over in LA though, Everything is kind of
spread out and you kind of need a car to get around. In rural areas, you absolutely need to have your own ride As a result, the feel the culture of
these places is different. And as time marches on
our needs will change. And so will our attitudes
and culture around cars. If you're watching this video, you will
probably always have a place in your heart for cars but your kids and grandkids might not. And that's how change happens. While the future may be scary, fate is not set in stone. It probably won't even be five years before a prediction I'm making
this video is hilariously out of date and very, very wrong. So relax and enjoy the
cards we have right now because that's all we
really have control over. Also, the GRS will be legal
too important, 25 years. So set yourself a reminder. Siri set a reminder 25 years from now buy a Toyota gr Doris. - Okay, added. - Thank you. Hey, if you like this
video, go ahead and hit that like button consider
subscribing to our channel. We put out dope videos
like this nearly every day. I'm optimistic for the future. I think the advancing
technology is really sick. These electric cars, I've
driven a few of them. They haul ass and that's
all that matters to me. They're sick. Followed donut media on all social media at donut media. It's a lot of media. Follow me @nolanjsykes. I take pictures sometimes. Be kind, take care of each other,
hold onto your cool car. See you next time.
