The Fed needs to look at the unemployment numbers when it comes to rate cuts, says IBM's Gary Cohn

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THERE YOU GO. THAT'S VERY SANTOLI, I WOULD AGREE. LET'S STAY ON THE HOTTER THAN EXPECTED JOBS NUMBER, WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE MARKET AND FED MOVING FORWARD. IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU BACK, WELCOME. >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME. >> HOW DO YOU READ THIS? >> I THINK I READ IT SIMILAR TO YOU. THERE'S SOMETHING IN HERE FOR EVERYONE, SOMETHING TO LIKE, SOMETHING NOT TO LIKE IN HERE. BUT I THINK OVERALL WE'VE GOT TO BACK UP AND LOOK AT THE TREND. THE TREND IS WE'VE GOT AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 4%. YES, IT'S 30 MONTHS AT 4% OR AND UNDER AND MAYBE THE LAST OF 34% OR UNDERSTAND. YOU SEE THERE'S LETS JOB OPENINGS, LESS TURNOVER. BUT WE'RE STILL SEEING WAGE PRESSURE. I THINK THE WAGE PRESSURE AND NUMBERS NEED TO BE SEPARATED. AND KEEP ARGUING WE NEED TO SEPARATE THAT. WE'RE VERY TRANSPARENTLY SEEING WAGE GROWTH THEN UNITED STATES. WE SEE UNION CONTRACTS BEING RENEGOTIATED, AMERICAN AIRLINE FLIGHT ATTENDANTS TURN DOWN A 17% WAGE INCREASE THIS WEEK. WE'RE SEEING MINIMUM WAGES GO UP IN HALF THE STATES IN THE UNITED STATES. SOME BECOME EFFECTIVE THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. EVERY TIME THESE THINGS HAPPEN, THE MARGEMAL WORKER BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. FOR US NOT TO THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE WAGE PRICE INFLATION, IT'S HARD FOR ME TO COMPREHEND WHY WE WOULDN'T THINK THAT. WE SEE THESE CONTRACTS BEING RENEGOTIATED, WE SEE THEM EVERY DAY WE SEE WAGE PRESSURE. SO WE CAN SEE WAGE PRESSURE AND WE CAN SEE UNEMPLOYMENT GOING UP AT THE SAME TIME, AND I THINK WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT. SO TO ME IT'S MORE ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS AND JOBS NUMBERS THAN IT IS IN THE WAGE NUMBERS BECAUSE IT'S VERY TRANSPARENT WHAT'S HAPPENING. >> I GUESS THE QUESTION IS WHICH SHOULD THE FED BE CONCERNED ABOUT WHEN FIGURING WHAT TO CUT. >> I THINK THEY'RE IN A DILEMMA LIKE EVERYONE ELSE. TO ME I THINK THEY NEED TO LOOK AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, AND THEY NEED TO LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH PEOPLE HAVING JOBS OR NOT HAVING JOBS. IN A CYCLE WHERE A LOT OF CONTRACTS ARE GETTING NEGOTIATED, IN A CYCLE A LOT OF MINIMUM WAGES ARE GOING UP. THEY WON'T GO UP NEXT YEAR. IF I WERE SITTING AT THE FED, I WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS MORE THAN I WOULD BE LOOKING AT THE WAGE NUMBERS. >> EVEN THAT IS VERY MIXED. I KNOW WE SEE A 4% NUMBER, BUT WE ALSO SEE 272,000 JOBS NONFARM PAYROLL ADDED THIS MONTH. WE ALSO SEE VERY FEW HISTORICALLY NUMBER OF AMERICANS FILING FOR UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS, SO WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THAT? >> LOOK, WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THAT? YOU CELEBRATE IT ON ONE HAND, RIGHT? WE SHOULD ALL BE HAPPY WE'VE GOT A STRONG ECONOMY. I KNOW YOU WERE JUST MENTIONING THERE'S TWO SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT. IS IT A STRONG ECONOMY SCHOOL OR WE HAVE TO HAVE LOWER INTEREST RATES FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGHER? I'LL ALWAYS TAKE A STRONGER ECONOMY. AT THE END OF THE DAY IT'S ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, GDP GROWTH, CORPORATE EARNINGS, THE HEALTH OF THE CONSUMER. THAT'S GOING TO WIN OUT ALL OF THE TIME IN THE LONG RUN, SO THE HEALTH OF THE ECONOMY IS MORE IMPORTANT. IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE JOBS ARE BEING CREATED, WE'RE IN THE SAME CATEGORIES. HEALTH CARE AND OUR FAVORITE TRAVEL AND LEISURE, YOU KNOW, BUSINESSES ARE RENORMALIZING. WE SEE IT ALL THE TIME. PEOPLE ARE TRAVELING FOR BUSINESS. IT'S NO LONGER JUST PERSONAL TRAVEL. AS WE CAME OUT OF COVID, EVERYONE'S TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH VACATIONS. THEY HTTP://BEEN ON VACATION, HADN'T BEEN OUT OF THEIR HOUSE, HADN'T BEEN OUT OF THEIR CITY FOR A YEAR, TWO YEARS. NOW WE'RE ACTUALLY SEEING IF YOU'RE TRAVELING FOR BUSINESS, YOU'RE SEEING REAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SHZ, YOU'RE SEEIN
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Channel: CNBC Television
Views: 5,415
Rating: undefined out of 5
Keywords: Squawk on the Street, CNBC, business news, finance stock, stock market, news channel, news station, breaking news, us news, world news, cable, cable news, finance news, money, money tips, financial news, stock market news, stocks
Id: ssR6ajqs7d4
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Length: 3min 58sec (238 seconds)
Published: Fri Jun 07 2024
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