El Niño 2023 is Going to be a INSANE!

El Nino 2023 is going to be a beast is what all  the reports have been reading have been telling   me but what does it actually mean what is El Nino  and what do we have in store for us around the   world this summer I'll be honest with you I didn't  really know nearly enough about this myself so   this one's going to be fun let's figure this all  out together I'm Ricky and this is two-bit DaVinci this video is sponsored by anchor solix since  early this year climatologists have been warning   of the imminent onset of an El Nino event the  warm phase of the El Nino Southern oscillation   or Enzo system the first unino watch was issued  on April 13th when one of the conditions for El   Nino was initially met we'll get back to that in a  minute but on June 8th of this year the arrival of   El Nino was officially confirmed by scientists at  NOAA based on their predictions 2023 is going to   be a really hot year and it's very likely that  2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded So   what is the Enzo system the Enzo system is the  world's most important climate cycle it's a   recurring climate pattern involving changes in the  temperatures of the Central and Eastern tropical   Pacific Ocean this phenomenon has three potential  phases a cold hot and neutral phase during a   neutral Enzo phase sometimes called lanata or  nothing in Spanish something I just learned   the ocean temperatures are average and we get  typically mild weather patterns around the world   the hot phase is what we call El Nino which is  Spanish for the child or the boy the name comes   from 17th century Peruvian fishermen who noticed  warmer Waters and poor fishing during Christmas   and Associated it with the birth of baby Jesus  when Waters get colder we get the opposite effect   so we call that phase La Nina which means the girl  the Enzo cycle usually lasts between two and seven   years averaging about five with El Nino and La  Nina phases lasting an average of 9 to 12 months   it's during these months that we see stronger  weather events in some parts of the world but   the last La Nina phase lasted three years instead  of nine to twelve months earning the nickname the   triple dip La Nina now the Enzo is bouncing back  to an El Nino and it's gonna be bad to understand   why this result Nino is going to be such a beast  let's look at how El Nino's work but before we   get into that I gotta tell you about our sponsor  this week anchor solix and this the F2000 portable   power station this thing is jam-packed with some  of the coolest Tech with two kilo hours of energy   storage and a Max output of 2400 Watts you can  Power 99 of your stuff my favorite feature is   its portability with its unibody drop proof design  pull out handle and rugged Wheels it's a breeze to   move around plug in your Internet modem wireless  router and fridge during your power outage and   you'll barely even be inconvenienced you can even  charge it with solar panels on your next Great   Outdoor Adventure or plug it in and thanks to its  hyper flash technology it'll charge up from zero   to eighty percent in just an hour and thanks  to EV gray lithium iron phosphate batteries   you can use it daily for over 10 years they even  have some special exclusive discounts for anchor   solex fans so check that down using the links in  the description huge thanks to Anchor solar Alex   and you for supporting the show now we've been  talking a lot about the Pacific Ocean and not   about the other oceans that's because the Pacific  literally controls Global Climate due to its sheer   size to put the sheer scale and significance of  the Pacific Ocean into perspective it covers 47   percent of the water surface of the planet that's  double the area and over twice the volume of the   water in the Atlantic which is the next largest  the point is even though El Nino happens over the   Pacific it's a fact stretch across the globe for  example El Nino also affects the jet stream which   is an atmospheric River of high-speed wind that  circulates around the earth near the poles during   El Nino events the jet stream can weaken and  shift to the South often leading to an increase in   storms along the southern coast of North America  during the winter it also brings in hotter Summers   like we are witnessing now this shift in the jet  stream also brings warmer temperatures and drier   conditions to Northern areas like the northern  U.S and Canada it can also call cause extreme   weather conditions such as floods and droughts  in other parts of the world floods are common in   places like Peru Ecuador Colombia Venezuela Chile  and Bolivia in South America drought conditions   tend to be more widespread and can occur in parts  of North America Central America the Caribbean   Islands Australia Africa and parts of Asia and  finally El Nino can also cause higher than normal   hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean but we'll  get back to that in a moment now not all of these   effects are sure to show up during a particular  El Nino season global weather is much more   complicated than that and there are other forces  at play but statistically speaking there is a   strong correlation between the strength of the El  Nino phase and its effects on those global weather   patterns so just how strong will the 2023 super  El Nino be I mean why are the scientists saying   that this year's El Nino is going to be stronger  than ever scientists measure the intensity of an   El Nino event by measuring how much warmer  or colder the ocean's surface temperatures   are than the normal average this is called called  the oceanic Nino index or Oni that is true these   temperatures are tracked within a particular patch  of the Pacific Ocean along the Equator called El   Nino 3.4 so for Noah to declare an El Nino event  three things have to happen one the ocean must be   at least 0.5 degrees Celsius hotter than normal  for a given month the normal temperature here   is compared to the 30-year long-term average  from 1991 to 2020. if the water is more than   0.5 degrees Celsius colder then it's classified as  La Nina and if it's between 0.5 above or below the   Enzo is considered in its neutral phase second  there should be evidence that the event will   persist scientists use complex computer models  to forecast sea surface temperatures for the   coming months and that's how they predict if the  conditions will last the final condition requires   the emergence of changes in weather patterns that  are typically associated with an El Nino event   from late January to late May the Enzo system came  out of the triple diplanemia and entered a neutral   phase temperatures kept Rising Noah then issued  an El Nino warning in mid-april when the water   reached a temperature over 0.5 degrees Celsius  above normal the first condition was met but not   the others however on June 8th over 90 percent of  all weather forecast models agreed that the warmer   temperatures would persist that's condition number  two also they were more than mild indications of   changing weather patterns particularly in Canada  if you've been watching the news lately a warmer   drier and earlier than normal summer caused by  the descending jet stream has contributed to   more than 2 700 wildfires along Alberta Nova  Scotia Ontario and Quebec now this will only   affect Canada as the smoke clouds are spreading  it's reached Ireland and the UK as of June 26th   but here in these states things are also looking  pretty bleak we're currently witnessing record   high summer temperatures even though the hottest  months of the year are typically weeks away as of   the making of this video there's a massive heat  wave in the central U.S that has over 45 million   Americans under official heat alert because of an  expanding heat Dome Over Texas just take a look at   this temperature map from June 20th multiple parts  of Texas are recording scorching temperatures   above 110 degrees Fahrenheit this is seriously  dangerous stuff this heat wave has already taken   the lives of two hikers who went on a hike in the  Big Bend National Park when temperatures hit 119   degrees this is only the beginning right now the  latest measurement of the Oni for the El Nino 3.4   region is 0.9 degrees Celsius above average but  almost all models predict this temperature will   keep rising in the coming months peaking around  October November during the northern winter some   of the most advanced models predict the ocean  temperatures will reach a staggering 2.73 degrees   Celsius above average others predict 2.5 several  more predict at least two and most other forecast   temperatures well over 1.5 degrees Celsius this  puts the 2023 El Nino event as a potential super   El Nino which happens when Central Pacific Waters  reach at least 2 degrees above average to put this   into perspective here's a graph of The observed  monthly Oni values since 1950. all values are   0.5 and above represent El Nino events this graph  shows two things we've had a total of only four   super El Nino events since 1972 with a tie for the  strongest ever recorded El Nino between 9798 and   2015-2016 Seasons with 2016 ranking as the hottest  year in recorded history the intensity of super El   Nino event has been growing stronger over time  and this time it seems like it'll get even worse   as I mentioned before we're coming into a bounce  back effect from a triple dip La Nina this matters   because the ocean is the world's largest carbon  sink absorbing 25 of all the carbon emissions and   90 of the excess heat caused by those emissions  cold water can actually absorb more carbon and   heat from the air than warm water can this is  why La Nina usually comes with lower average   global temperatures because the water is colder  however even though we just had a three-year   long La Nina 2022 was the fifth hottest year ever  recorded and now that the tides have turned and   the ocean is getting warmer it's also getting  ready to release gigatons worth of greenhouse   gases and excess stored heat into the atmosphere  another clear sign of a stronger than usual El   Nino event is that the U.S drop monitor reported a  faster than normal decrease in drought conditions   across the country this dropped from 63 percent at  the start of November 2022 to 19 by the end of May   2023. that's definitely good news for places in  drought but that's the fastest decline in drought   conditions since we began tracking them in 2000  and it points to a strong El Nino effect on the   jet stream I mentioned before so the 2023 super El  Nino is going to be massive how massive the only   way to put it into context is to compare it to  the closest competitor the 2015-2016 El Nino let's   recap what happened during that year first during  this season the southern states especially along   the Gulf Coast received much higher precipitation  than normal during the winter months for example   Texas had its wettest winter on record with an  average of 16.8 inches of rain which was 7.4 above   normal Florida also had its second wettest winter  on record with 4.7 inches more rain than normal   that is set to happen again in the 2023-2024  winter season only worse but that's the milder   side 2016 has the second highest annual number  of billion dollar weather-related disasters in   U.S history there were a total of 203 disasters 15  of which were extreme events including Hurricane   Matthew in October the northern Central Texas  hail storm of April and the ongoing Mega drought   here in California to name a few in total these  natural disasters killed 138 people and caused   46 billion dollars in direct damages and that  was with a peak sea surface temperature of 2.3   degrees above average imagine with 2.7 would do  with the exception of Hurricane Katrina in 2005   which has been the costliest natural disaster  in U.S history most billion dollar disasters are   linked to El Nino events and the overall cost  in human lives and damages has been increasing   steadily Yale climate connections contributor  Michael Lowry explained in simple terms why this   year's El Nino could also trigger one of the worst  hurricane seasons in the Atlantic he stated the   Tropical Atlantic has been running an astounding  full degree Celsius or warmer above its long-term   average blistering warmth that in any other year  would signal an active hurricane season ahead and   that means that it's not just the Pacific that's  getting worked up we really have to embrace   ourselves we're heading toward a pretty ugly  situation and we desperately need to prepare if   you're in any of the regions where you're likely  to see the impacts of the super El Nino event it's   probably a good idea to at least consider getting  flood insurance or fire insurance or something   similar it's also important to take official  warnings seriously and make sure we have a backup   plan to cool off if you have to spend time outside  during a particularly hot day but as an engineer   I also like to take a more proactive approach to  preparation one that doesn't only depend on public   utilities or the government setting up backup  systems for power for example is why talk so much   about batteries and solar better Communications  water and food or totally going off-grid are all   things you can do in some small way so for example  one of the big concerns whenever the heat starts   to rise is people running their air conditioning  especially in the U.S where people are not keen   to turn the thermostat up and overload the grid  and causing brownouts to happen so for me I now   have a 11 kilowatt solar system which produces  all the power I need next up for me is home   batteries if I got those two things together even  the power goes out I could still run my house and   my business and that's why I love that technology  so much it's the emergency preparedness of it all   that said predictions and forecasts are only that  predictions based on models and those models could   be wrong we could end up with a mild El Nino that  doesn't really do all that much harm there is a   more than 50 chance that this year's El Nino will  be a beast but there's also a chance that it won't   I don't make these videos to come out as alarmist  or to scare people I'm bringing you all the data   how this works I honestly didn't know and now I  fully understand what El ninos are that there's   a la NADA didn't know that and how this year  is shaping up so definitely keep a prize of the   news where you live and be prepared there's going  to be increases in air conditioning usage power   outages those are things that are probably going  to happen especially as the temperatures start   to rise in regions that have air conditioning you  know I love you take care of you and yours be safe   out there and uh until next time I'm recruit  tube DaVinci and check out this video next

Channel: Two Bit da Vinci

Views: 1,347,274

Keywords: two bit da vinci, el nino, el nino 2023, la nina, extreme weather, weather channel, hurricane season, hurricane season 2023, major hurricane, atlantic hurricane season 2023, summer outlook 2023, how el nino and la nina affect weather, el nino weather pattern, el nino la nina explained, what is el nino, will a super el nino develop in 2023?, el nino update, el nino and la nina explained, SUPER El Niño 2023 is Going to be a Beast!, El Niño 2023 is Going to be a INSANE!

Id: 2cxWf5yA9so

Length: 13min 48sec (828 seconds)

Published: Thu Jun 29 2023