Let’s take a look at international issues. There are many unwanted scenes in Japan . Since New Year’s Day, Japan has been very uneasy . There are even scenes of flashing green lights and explosions falling from the sky. What happened in Japan ? Let’s take a look at this scene and forget to install it. Tai Sui is a picture taken by people from different angles. Doesn’t it just look like a meteor? They also heard the explosion. They were very worried, so they had various reactions immediately . Could it be a missile from North Korea or somewhere else? Everyone was very worried. I'm worried , but in fact, the picture of this fireball piercing the Kanto region of Japan is currently judged to be similar to the picture of a meteorite falling , but it happens all the time in Japan, so I am very afraid of what. In addition to various natural disasters, Russia and North Korea will have three congresses. No, especially if there will be conflict across the Taiwan Strait. I am afraid that something will happen. So North Korea is looking at this approach to deter Japan and South Korea . It has just launched this missile for the first time in 2024. The South Korean military said that North Korea launched a ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan . Why is it special? It is attracting attention because this ballistic missile, which is suspected to be a mid-range and long- range ballistic missile, flew about 500 kilometers away and finally landed in an area outside Japan's exclusive economic zone near the east coast of the Korean Peninsula. The Japanese government lodged a protest with North Korea , but is it useful? Because there is nothing to stop North Korea from launching this missile. The reason why this missile is noticed is because it is a solid-fuel hypersonic missile. This test launch reported by the state-run media and North Korean state-run media uses a new type of solid fuel. Tell everyone what this technology is at a higher level. It can improve its attack capabilities and is more difficult to intercept. The longest range can also cover military bases in the Western Pacific waters , including Guam in the United States. So it is showing its muscles and its strength . So it is not just this meteorite that falls. The Japanese are also worried about what might happen. What should they do if they are careful to fly to their nearby homes ? Of course, there is also the demand for aircraft carriers. Now it is said that the demand for aircraft carriers has increased unprecedentedly. The US-made Ford-class ships are said to be accelerated. Meyer, CEO of the US Navy's Aircraft Carrier Program Executive Office, said that because of the recent demand for aircraft carriers, The demand for various strategic combat capabilities has increased significantly , so we must step up the delivery of Ford-class nuclear-powered new aircraft carriers. Therefore, we are purchasing the aircraft carriers purchased by the US military in pairs . The Carl Vinson, Reagan, and USS Ford and Eisenhower are heading west. What it symbolizes is more preparations for larger-scale needs , as well as China. Because Taiwan’s general election has been postponed until this year, what is it? The results of the tripartite talks between China, Japan and South Korea have now been determined and scheduled for March. Fumio Kishida wants to I am going to visit the United States in March , but if China invites the heads of state of the two countries to come in March , will the time conflict with the United States? It is still being coordinated. However, this summit between the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea may now be needed by Japan and South Korea . Everyone is not worried about the local calm , especially what kind of new situation will emerge after Taiwan's election . And the relations between China and South Korea are described as warming? Wang Yi said that China and South Korea have played a positive role in promoting regional peace and development in the past 30 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations . China and South Korea have made progress in their strategic cooperation relationship. South Korea, formerly known as South Korea, refers to South Korea 's trade deficit with China, which is the first deficit phenomenon in 31 years. What changes have taken place in the industry? The latest import and export trend data released by China Southern Airlines shows that In the first 11 months of last year, South Korea's trade with China had a trade deficit of US$ 18 billion , which was unprecedented in the past because South Korea used to export large quantities of goods . However, last year's report found that the technical competitiveness of China's export products was increasing. As for South Korea, it is necessary to further enhance the external competitiveness of its export products to improve its current export structure, which they describe as over-reliance on the Chinese market, especially what it relies on. If it is a system of raw materials like this, it is very important . It is said that it is relieved. Why is it because of South Korea's batteries that if raw materials such as lithium battery graphite are not allowed to enter South Korea, it will have a great impact on their industry. So the latest news is that the Chinese government has approved the export of graphite materials to South Korea's main battery industry. Only when they have the means , including the automobile-related supply chain, will have a major impact. Brother Liang, Japan is really not calm , but in fact , it is difficult for the regions to really rest assured. Japan seems to have forgotten An Taisui this year. It feels like there is an earthquake in everything. There is also a plane crash, right? A lot of Kishida's polls are not good. Everyone thinks that he has recovered to 5%. But I'm afraid he may not be able to do it in September . He originally arrived in September , but I think this is the case for China, Japan and South Korea. The summit meeting in Mainland China is relatively busy in the first quarter of this year. It has two sessions to be held, so it is generally believed that they will still meet in the second quarter to deal with some problems . Maybe they will use Kishida ’s resignation as a turning point in the nuclear wastewater treatment . In this way, because it is a cabinet system, changing the prime minister will mean that he is responsible for that policy . Then we will turn around. Anyway, a lot of nuclear wastewater has been poured out , so we will stop here . As long as the nuclear wastewater is somewhat resolved, I think there are some issues. Going forward, for example, if you talk about South Korea's lithium battery graphite, South Korea is 90% dependent on China. In fact, they have transactions , but you have not written it out. For example, SK, I heard that its semiconductor investment in mainland China requires technological upgrades. South Korea 's current exports to the United States, if there is room for increase, are basically things that mainland China cannot sell. For example, if mainland China's semiconductors are sold to the United States, the United States will increase taxes on you, right? It doesn't care what information you have about tax exemptions. Electronic products should be tax-free. The United States doesn't care about you. So in that kind of place, South Korea will get some gaps. For example, if electric cars cannot be sold in China, South Korea will have the opportunity to try it . It's like this. Otherwise, South Korea's trade with China will probably be overtaken. The situation will become more and more obvious. This is where it becomes troublesome . As long as China and South Korea have overlapping products, many of them will be defeated. This is very troublesome because South Korea's exports to mainland China originally accounted for a large amount. The proportion of South Korea's exports to mainland China was as high as 24 % Well, now it’s not that you don’t want to sell it , but if you can’t sell it, your competitiveness will be defeated. People will no longer buy your car. For example, Korean cars are about to disappear in China . This is really the case . So this is its problem . Its industrial structure is much more severe when it comes to exporting to China than in Taiwan , because Taiwan is bulky in electronic components and semiconductors, etc. Mainland China, because it is really out of stock , needs manufacturing in Taiwan to make up for some technologies in mainland China . It hasn't caught up yet , so it thinks that Taiwan's products are good, but South Korea is not like that, so it is probably more troublesome in this part. So the whole issue of the industry has a great impact on the relations between the region and surrounding areas. In fact, the countries surrounding the region are also very concerned about it, including South Korea itself. North and South Korea have also been testing missiles , so they are not calm either. Of course, Japan is also worried about something happening next door. It is North Korea that is testing missiles. Or we should call it North Korea because they call it North Korea. This time it is about mid-range. Solid-fuel medium- range ballistic missiles are usually called medium-range ballistic missiles of 1,000 to 3,000 kilometers. They are within the range of about 4,000 kilometers. This time it flew 1,000 kilometers to Guam, which is 3,500 kilometers. So this is equivalent to a technical one. That is to say, confirm , but don’t think that North Korea is a shepherd child or irrational. North Korea is too rational . I have watched it for more than 20 years. I really want to ask its national security adviser who is toying with a country like this in this region. The power politics of big countries can in the end allow their nuclear weapons to increase and protect themselves. So don't think that if they launch missiles or conduct tests, a war will happen. I think North Korea is actually very rational. Now here in China, in mainland China. In other words , I think we are facing two challenges in Northeast Asia. The first is the relationship between China, Japan and South Korea. How can China, Japan, China and South Korea gradually recover ? But this general direction should have been confirmed. The second is China and North Korea. The relationship is because North Korea is currently busy in the military field, including missiles and in diplomacy, it is very close to Russia. Its foreign minister is in Moscow now, right? Many military technologies were also obtained from Russia during this period. Therefore, Beijing does not hope that the relationship between China and North Korea will be too close during this period , but I think the relationship between China and North Korea will definitely return to the main axis and track , and Japan and South Korea must understand that it can have a truly profound impact on North Korea in the end. Mainland China is the most powerful and the United States is no longer able. The United States has simply used the so-called North Korean crisis to strengthen the military alliance between the United States, Japan and the United States and South Korea , and then targets China. Therefore, it can actually have a real impact on Japan, South Korea, and the security of Northeast Asia. What actually helps is the stability of the relationship between China and North Korea. In fact , I think the United States and Japan have not seen it clearly until now . Finally, I saw that basically the so-called aircraft carrier requirement has become the first in this region. In fact, the situation within the island chain is already very clear. You can see that this time the Carl Vinson and the Reagan have slowly moved away from Taiwan behind the scenes . But then the Fujian started to be launched and entered service . I feel that the comparison of aircraft carriers in the first island chain will already be more favorable to the mainland and the People's Liberation Army. How do you maintain a balance between areas that show off their muscles ? Of course, it is whether the risks can be reduced between areas . But like the demand for aircraft carriers in the United States The unprecedented increase is of course the strength that each country needs to show in regional balance. The United States is now divided into several parts , including the Taiwan Strait. There may also be potential dangers . The conflict between Israel and Palestine has not ended yet, let alone Russia and Ukraine. So , In fact, its aircraft carriers are basically not enough. Its previous rotations have begun to be stretched. I think this is very, very troublesome for it . Because the United States has adjusted its defense plan in response to the rise of China , it hopes to It can maintain 12 aircraft carriers in the future , but its shipbuilding speed is too slow, so it has been unable to keep up. Currently, the Ford class is now in service . The new generation of this aircraft carrier was originally built in 2010 , but it has not yet been built . The construction has not been completed and it is estimated that it will be launched in the middle of this year in 2024. The sea trials have not been completed yet because the sea trials will not be completed until the army is established. I don’t know how long it will take , so this process is very, very long for them , so here Under this situation , the U.S. Navy may face the problem of being unable to dispatch its troops . If there are so many battlefields, it really cannot dispatch them. So the United States absolutely does not want anything to happen on the Taiwan Strait now because its troop distribution is already insufficient . Other There are currently 4 aircraft carriers that can be used . Most of the other aircraft carriers are being renovated. So let’s look at the current formation of the smallest minority government on Ono, the Legislative Yuan. Of course, it is the first battle recently. How about the so-called cooperation between the president and the president of the Legislative Yuan? we saw this this morning At the Kuomintang Party’s press conference, he wanted to see which one of the two sides’ bargaining chips better suited his needs. However, a group called Chonghan’s anti-Korean group reappeared. Wecare has disappeared for a long time. What do they care about? In fact, only Hanguo Yu is the one who cares. The Korean supply chain has begun to warm up again. Korean groups say that it has warmed up. Can the Legislative Yuan be removed? Use this topic to fight for the right to speak because there has been no such scene for some time. But of course, the Legislative Yuan can be removed just by saying he wants to be removed. Is it still useful now if it is just to criticize Han Kuo-yu or create hatred ? If the Green-White alliance in Congress is of course not impossible, the DPP is also asking if there is a way to cooperate with the People's Party . So if You Xikun becomes the president, it will be possible for the Green-White alliance. As a result, Queen Huang Jie rolled her eyes at the same time and said she was ready to discuss with Han Guoyu and never give in when encountering conflicting issues . But how can the Legislative President discuss with his colleagues , especially if he is not the Legislative President and is combined by you, how can he discuss with you? There is only one reason to consume South Korea. Didn’t Yu Chong Han gain high popularity and traffic because of Chong Han? Currently, what is Green Camp waiting to see? Although Hou Chao has proposed it , is it not active enough at present ? Is it because Hou Youyi may not have a high number of votes in New Taipei City, but his hatred value is not that high? Let’s see that Lai Xiaopei ’s vote rate here in New Taipei City is 38.59%, which exceeds Hou Kangpei’s own Hou Youyi’s natal district Ke Yingpei’s 35.17% Only 26.24 , then the green camp got 40% of the votes. If it quits, the ratio will not be that easy . Unless the green and white sides cooperate together, is it possible for Ke Wenzhe to wade through troubled waters ? Is it possible for the green camp to include green and white cooperation on other issues ? Is this really the case? Of course, there is a question mark . There is also a problem in the United States. We know that Nauru, a new diplomatic ally, broke off diplomatic relations today . However, the US delegation is so anxious that it has never been seen before. As soon as the results were announced and the results were announced, the US delegation flew down . Are you worried about Taiwan's political instability across the Taiwan Strait? So today Lai Ching-te and President Tsai Ing- wen have already met with this senior delegation from the United States . They expressed that they will continue to defend peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. These include the former Deputy Secretary of State . Of course, the United States is in Taiwan. Rosenberg and others from the Association all represent the will of the Biden administration or Biden himself said it himself . When the media asked him, he just said that he does not support Taiwan independence. What is it that he is worried about ? The instability in this region will allow the United States to have trouble. More trouble , so US Secretary of State Blinken told everyone in the message he sent to congratulate Lai Qingde on his election that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately expressed strong protest against this congratulatory message on his election. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the US State Department seriously violated the one-China principle . The three joint communiqués sent a seriously wrong signal to the Taiwan independence separatist forces, and solemn representations have been made to the United States. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi quoted the Cairo Declaration and said that the 1945 Cairo Declaration clearly stipulated that the return of Taiwan, the Chinese territory stolen by Japan, to China is in accordance with international law . The effective document constitutes the international order after World War II , so the actions will become stronger and bigger. In addition to the severance of diplomatic relations between Nauru and various economic disconnections today , there may be other measures to be taken . Of course, we don’t know . Prepare to observe and respond to China. But the United States still distrusts Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen . During the debate, everyone suspected that he had left Tsai Ing-wen's line . So the Post pointed out the difference between Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen, which made the United States The government may not be reassured because the two people are different. Tsai Ing-wen used to be a professional bureaucrat and international trade negotiator, so she is relatively stable . However, Lai Qingde rose to power when the Democratic Progressive Party openly supported Taiwan independence , so the thing that helped Tsai Ing-wen a lot is extreme. Stable Lai Ching-te is just the opposite. The background of his election campaign is analyzed by international scholars. This makes him more likely to be rhetorical but affects his ability to convey messages stably . What this means is that he may be unstable and convey messages at any time that may accidentally spark war or cause cross-strait conflict. Brother Liang, from the battle in the Legislative Yuan to the new electoral changes in the various issues surrounding the recall , there are indeed many variables , especially between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Let me tell you . This is not a comparison between Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen. Shelley Rigger, she said Chen Shui - bian wrong. When Chen Shui-bian was elected in 2000, he got 39.3% of the votes, which was almost the same as Lai Ching-te's 40.05%. It was a double minority. The president was a minority Legislative Yuan and a minority. Chen Shui-bian was in the minority on March 18. What did he say in his election speech on the day he was elected ? We are willing to negotiate on various issues such as cross-strait direct navigation, trade , investment, peace agreement, military mutual trust mechanism , etc. We hope to have all-round constructive communication and dialogue. 318 Can you listen to Lai Qingde’s election speech? We are the democratic camp. The first victory this year was between democracy and authoritarianism. We chose democracy, right? The second point was that we defeated China’s mediated election. The third point was that we chose the right path and never looked back . You see, the contrast with Chen Shui-bian is so stark . So this is It’s not about your background. Chen Shui-bian’s election background involves your degree. You, Lai Qingde, have no degree. That’s what Chen Shui-bian knows about the pressure from the international community and the CCP. He has considered all aspects. Chen Shui-bian is a president with a degree. That’s why Chen Shui-bian proposed that when he took office in 520. Do you remember the famous four differences? As long as the CCP does not use force against Taiwan I promise that during my term I will not declare independence, I will not change the name of the country, I will not promote the two-nation theory, I will not push for a referendum on unification and independence that would change the status quo, and I will not abolish the National Unification Platform and the National Unification Council. The issues with the National Unification Council have awakened important memories for us, right? Sibuyi didn’t ask Chen Shui- bian when he was not elected. How many elections did he have? He made a higher choice according to the country’s standards. Would he be worse than you, Lai Qingde, in the election? Chen Shui-bian, I think he is the God of War, the God of Elections , but when he was elected The president knows that he is a double minority. He immediately knows that a president like him is facing a national crisis. He immediately has this understanding that is completely different from you, Lai Qingde. You know why the United States is not at ease with you. This Ren Shirley is just talking. The reason is that in fact the United States is very uneasy about him. You are a person who is not very paranoid and arbitrary. What can I do ? Do you know what Chen Shui-bian said later ? Can I be welcomed by the people of Taiwan ? I must be recognized by the international community. I must reassure the U.S. government. I must make the CCP unable to find excuses. He wants all four effects. He must ask Lai Qingde to watch Chen Shui-bian's Century. Is this autobiography of Shouhang good for you to learn from others ? I have no way to influence you now. I am just telling you. I am here to watch you become the president. What do I think about the Republic of China? The Constitution of the Republic of China is a disaster. You, Lai Qingde, are a disaster for Taiwan. Everyone has to live with you in fear every day . This is the scary thing . Please read Chen Shui-bian's First Flight of the Century. This book will help everyone recall the five hundred days of the political party's first flight. Let's see what A-Bian was thinking back then . Please save Taiwan, otherwise Brother Bing, we really have to tremble and wait, not knowing what will happen. The United States is not worried about his various actions, and the Taiwanese are even more worried . But if you are not worried, you are not worried. You have already chosen What can he do? Now look at how Lai Qingde feels about himself. But from his election speech, you can’t feel at all how much impact he will have as the president. He himself feels this way. I think he There is absolutely no sense that he does not have this consciousness and then just keeps repeating these stereotypes that we are willing to communicate with the other side. This makes no sense. How on earth are you going to communicate with the other side ? You ca n't explain it at all. You don't accept the 1992 Consensus, and you don't think you are. Chinese people, I don’t know how you are going to communicate with the other side , so the United States is very worried about him now. I believe that the United States is at least because the United States also has elections this year , so I think they will strictly monitor him during this period. This is also Xiao Meiqin’s role. One of the problems is that what I am most worried about is that Lai Qingde is not very controlled and he is not very manageable. When his emotions accumulate to a certain level, what kind of explosive decision will he make? I don’t know this is our Taiwan. The only choice people have is to wait and be on tenterhooks . The first thing to bear the brunt is the election of the Legislative Yuan. Now the Kuomintang Party held a press conference this morning and made those statements , saying that anyway, it is necessary to agree to these conditions before it is necessary to negotiate. Zhao Shaokang has already On behalf of the Kuomintang, I said OK. I don’t know if the Kuomintang ratified this thing afterwards , because after all, Zhao Shaokang does not have a party position. The DPP seems to have not responded yet. If both parties agree, how will they proceed to the next round of assessment ? I don’t know. In fact, I personally think that I don’t really hope that Hanguo-yu will be the Legislative Yuan again. I think he can lead the party group to charge into battle as a legislator or as one of the three party chiefs. I think he is a more capable person. The position of the Legislative Yuan is a person with strong fighting ability. Then , is Han Guoyu suitable for Qiao’s affairs ? Is his own personality suitable? I think he is not completely determined by the Kuomintang now , and it also depends on the attitude of the Kuomintang. I think as much as possible It doesn’t necessarily have to be Han Kuo-yu or someone else to fight for it. It’s OK to have someone else . I heard a piece of news today that I found very interesting. It said that if the Democratic Progressive Party fails to win the Legislative Yuan, You Xikun may resign and replace him with Wang Yichuan. It’s not that Wang Zhengxu first replaces Wang Zhengxu first, and then resigns one. It depends on who he wants to achieve , and then Wang Yichuan can come in and be sure to rescue Yichuan Dingbing. I think it’s OK. If the DPP is willing to do this, I’m OK. I’m optimistic about its achievements. Look at the Legislative Yuan . Anyway, all kinds of strange people are coming in. After it turned into a palace, many jihadists appeared. That’s fine as long as they are happy. But I think this Congress will be very interesting because of the DPP itself. The Kuomintang is not a majority and it is not an absolute majority, so the People's Party actually understands that its non-zoning list structure is like this. Each of them actually has different ideas . So in the future, will the People's Party have a way to implement discipline, that is, all 8 votes will be the same every time , or will it be open? I think it will be very interesting to vote or compete with each other. I think this will be very interesting in the Congress in the next year. I think there will be a lot of surprises. There will be many happy scenes in it. Everyone can slowly watch the professor. Indeed, if he raised it himself So why bother with the candidates for the chief and deputy positions ? It feels more cost-effective to bet on the cooperation chips on the other side. This is also what the Democratic Progressive Party is planning now. The next key minority of the People's Party will of course affect the next political situation. Let me start with the first one. I hope that the Blue People's Party will Being the Legislative Yuan is not for anything , but for the sake of the future cross-strait relations and the relationship between Lai Qingde and Lai Qingde. In the uncertain cross-strait relations, this kind of words and deeds will have a strong check and balance effect. This is something no one expected. I also think that in the end, Blue will be elected. Why is it so simple? The People's Party is now letting it go to improve its image. Ke Wenzhe has already said that he will be elected. If he cooperates with Green in 2028 , you are surrendering. You are betraying . Surrendering is basically your surrender and combining with Green, right? You are betraying your supporters . Don’t forget the first of the three major issues of Taiwan’s political structure that I just talked about. The second one is that he hates the corruption of the green ones. The third one is that he hates the aging of the blue ones. The third one is that he doesn’t really like the Chinese Communist Party. Together, all the young people are under your white banner. At this time, you run to cooperate with the green ones. It's not bad to take the dean one and take the vice dean in 2028. It's not bad to go back to the blue-green duel. But Ke Wenzhe shouldn't be so stupid, so I think the result must be like this . If we really want to separate the blue and white, wouldn't it be right... You didn't Blue and white, you still want to be the vice president, and then there are several ministries that can let you choose the right one, so he won't be so stupid. They are just showing off . The United States is controlling the United States, not Taiwan. The United States is controlling Lai Qingde and individuals . Now China and the United States are co-managing the United States. The job is to control Lai Ching-te and then make it very clear that he does not support Taiwan independence. I made it very clear what it means to control Lai Ching-te. He must say it out so that at least Washington and Beijing can accept it. Do you remember that A-Bian was not bright just now? Brother, did Si Buyi have any strong memories of what Ma Ying-jeou said about non-reunification, non-independence and non- militancy to Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 about the 1992 historical facts ? In fact, did you talk about it under pressure from the United States ? Of course , especially Ah Bian’s four are not one , so I think it may not be enough to freeze the Taiwan Independence Party platform. Because when we talk about freezing , when can we unfreeze it, right? So what the United States wants to do to control the CCP has already been done. Everyone, I have been thinking about the three wars. If Lai Qingde is elected, what will Beijing do? Three wars, diplomatic war, economic war, exercises, diplomatic war. The first one is Nauru, right? Now 13 becomes 12. The next one is Guatemala, Guatemala in January. On the 14th, the new President Wu Zhaoxie even ran to attend his inauguration ceremony, but God knows at that time. In fact, when I met him on the 13th, the results had not yet come out . So I am more worried about the diplomatic war with Guatemala and Haiti , and then whether the second one will be reduced to Economic wars below 10 are the 527 and then the 2509 economic wars. We have nothing yet and we have nothing to say because they are all exercises and wars that we take advantage of. This exercise will become more and more profound. So you guys also have to see how the United States does in these three wars. Control how Lai Ching-te reacts. Taiwan is basically in turmoil , so is it really turbulent and waiting? I think this is the scene that voters least want to see. First, let’s introduce this section . Let’s discuss the changes in the post-election situation and international issues. The first guest is Dr. Guo Zhengliang, a doctor of political science from Yale. Brother, we are safe. Senior media person Xie Hanbing, host. Hello, everyone. Former deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council, Professor Yang Yongming, Qianqiu. Hello, everyone. Among several topics, of course, in addition to how the new government will block the next So analysis of this vote, then next time, who are the war criminals this time? They have been the focus of discussion these days . Wu Zijia jumped out and scolded those who support Ke Wenzhe as the most pitiful group of young people who have made their lives difficult in the past 8 years. He criticized Ke Wenzhe for ruining the future of young people with his own hands. Liu Baojie even scolded Ke Wenzhe for 5 hours when issuing tickets, saying that he had been the third child twice. Is your name Huang Shanshan ? Does Ke Wenzhe know your situation ? If he knew, he would still do it. Isn't it deceiving supporters to make such a declaration ? Of course he is referring to figures including polls and so on. Tongshen directly said that he was deceived by fake polls. Listen to this conversation . Of course, the point of Tongshen is that if 60% The results of the poll are that public opinion hopes that the DPP will be delisted , so let Lai Qingde become the smallest minority with only 40% of the votes. The president has not been able to delist him. Why is Tongshen relatively young ? Now he can support the Kuomintang. Before, he and Miao Boya So how can the Kuomintang win back young votes or how can other opposition parties use young votes to become the goal of development four years later ? Let ’s take a look at Ke Wenzhe’s analysis of the presidential vote . Is 80% of it coming from green camp supporters? 20% come from blue constituencies, so white disrupts the green constituency. If calculated in this way, Taipei's first district, Shilin Beitou, is Hou Hanting. Does he count as white? He is a member of the New Party. He is running without party membership. But if Zhang Sigang is included in Hou Hanting, his vote count will be greater than that of Wu Siyao. The same goes for Yu Meiren. She claims that she has no party or faction and is not a candidate for the People's Party . However, if you add Zhong Xiaoping and Zhong Xiaoping, Yu Meiren is still bigger than Wu Peiyi. But this constituency is a little different because Zhong Xiaoping's personal hatred value in the constituency is slightly higher. So looking at other constituencies, like Yilan Chen Junyu, Huang Yingting plus one plus, it will be greater than Huang Yingting plus Chen Wanhui. The reverse is right , it will also be greater than the candidates of the Democratic Progressive Party. So even if there are no nominated candidates, the same block will be the same if Bai supports it. If blue and white cooperation is possible, it is possible to win the election in areas such as Yunlin's first constituency, one of the constituencies that surprised everyone the most. The old county magistrate Su Zhifen actually lost to Ding Xuezhong . The difference in votes was actually not that big . So in the end, Ding Xuezhong could make a comeback or Is it strong enough not to affect the area? Lai Shibao was still elected. Even if Zhang Qilu came to run for New Taipei District 8, Zhang Zhilun was
still the same. With Wu Zheng and Qiu Chenyuan coming together to split the votes , he still got 42% of the votes. Even if the Bai camp nominated candidates , it would not be affected. For example, Zhang Zhilun's local base and Wu Zheng's hatred value are high, and the role played by Ke Wenzhe is enough to make the Blue Army lose the election. Unless these two constituencies are relatively strong , who will be the legislative president in the Legislative Yuan? A lot of the drama we saw this morning is still going on. The People's Party has to become a key minority and the most influential one. Na Ke has to continue to be elected president. Both blue and green votes are needed to win. This is also talking about Ke Wenzhe four years later. What does Brother Liang think of this time when Ke Wenzhe is described as a war criminal , like Wu Zijia’s statement or Liu Baojie’s view ? Because they think that Ke Wenzhe is being suppressed by the media, so they have to come up with some frankly speaking. Political party polls have not done so in the first place. People are taking internal reference seriously, right? The Kuomintang also took part in party polls. Zhu Lilun said that Hou Youyi won by a small margin and Lai Qingde won 2%. The Kuomintang also said that two days before the vote was counted, the DPP also said that Lai Qingde was expected to win 45%. In the end, it was 40.05%, right ? Of course. The People's Party's polls are a bit exaggerated , but what I mean is that if you are from the People's Party, you have to consolidate your non-regional voting. In fact, Ke Wenzhe ended up with 600,000 more votes than his party. So what do you have? As a strategy , you can only exaggerate your own polls to strengthen everyone's confidence in coming out to vote, otherwise you will collapse. Frankly speaking, Taiwan's system of not being able to publish polls within 10 days is not necessarily reasonable , because many countries ask you to publish it until the end. One day , even on the day of voting, the polls were published. Is it right to give voters a reference ? Yes, voters , you have to judge for yourself which one is true. In fact, our society has published more than a dozen kinds of polls. Which one is yours, the People's Party? Ke fans only believe in the polls published by Huang Shanshan , so what can I do, right ? So it’s not that society has deceived you, and everyone gets what they need. If you say that society’s polls cannot be published , only Huang Shanshan is publishing the polls . You can go to K Huang Shanshan , but when Huang Shanshan announced the poll, everyone was also publishing other polls. Why did everyone believe in Huang Shanshan so much ? Why did everyone believe in Ke Wenzhe so much ? Ke Wenzhe also said that he would change his organization to the Jesuits. He has a religious nature and a personality cult. nature, so what are you arguing about ? I told you that as long as there is a political party with a personality cult nature and a religious nature, you said that if the polls are released, your masses will turn to you. Don’t be stupid. Unless the leader says I will not win, please turn to the leader and talk about this. Words are useful , so I think frankly speaking, the Kuomintang has not been elected. Review , and don’t take fake polls as the key point, because when it comes to polls, you yourself have the real point of analysis. Why is Hou Youyi so weak? This is probably the key point. If it weren’t for Zhao Shaokang and Han Guoyu. If you go all out to support Hou Youyi, maybe Hou Youyi really ranks third . I'm afraid this is the truth. What I mean is that if you don't analyze yourself from here or explain why Hou Youyi was forced to only have 3 months left to campaign, you are in front of me. What was Hou Youyi doing? In fact, from January to March last year, his polls were very high. Why didn't you just take advantage of the victory and mention Hou Youyi directly at that time to give him a longer time to move around ? Because he was still in office and had just been elected. If you want to run for office , let me tell you. If this is the case, you should not elect you. If you still want to consider that I have just been elected, I will have to serve in office for at least half a year before I can move around. Then you think this presidential election is too simple. You only have 3 months. If you can have friendship and trust with local factions , what do you usually do ? If you really want to be elected president, have you been interacting with local people in the past few years ? What you should always reflect on is why the Kuomintang is so important to you. It's not okay to mention him. If you bring it up, people will tell you that he is very weak. You still don't believe it . If Zhao Shaokang and Han Guoyu hadn't jumped in in the end , think about what you would have done. So at the beginning, people were talking about Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe. You are really weak in the polls . That is not false. You may be able to win over Ke Wenzhe , but you will definitely not be able to win over Lai Qingde . This is a fact. If you disagree, you will lose . I have made it clear to you . Let’s all fight hard, right? Then Now that I am reflecting on my opponent's fake polls, this is ridiculous. There is no political party that reflects on issues like this. If a political party wants to reflect on issues , it must first reflect on itself . Why is the primary election not transparent and open ? Why is the nomination so late ? Why do you think of integrating Guo and Dong ? There were a lot of issues coming in, and I thought it would be better to discuss them here. Frankly speaking, I later confessed that I thought the Kuomintang was still well integrated after the dead horse became a living horse and the doctor decided to elect himself. In fact, all parties have gone all out. It’s you. It’s hard to say what’s wrong with Zhu Lilun. Can you really handle the factions there like Fu Kunqi and Zhang Rongwei without Zhu Lilun to integrate them, right? You still blame Zhu Lilun now . Let me tell you , there are a lot of problems , but the last thing to review is What the People's Party is doing to you with fake polls. I just want to play like this. I am a religion. He is a religion. He is a cult of personality. He is such a party. Otherwise, why don't you get one too? A candidate with such appeal will come out, right? Brother Bing, I think the people who want to scold them for the fake poll used by the People's Party should be the people who support the People's Party. To those who would vote for the Kuomintang , you don't believe this fake poll ? Is this what you mean? Like I never believed that Tongshen could turn to Tongshen. In fact, I told everyone that it was impossible for him to vote for Ke Wenzhe. He always did it on purpose. He even talked about it himself during the live broadcast. He was doing a live broadcast of the polls , and when the polls were called , he pretended to say that I was 29 years old, so I think Tongshen is trying to achieve results , but the point is that the People’s Party itself needs to review your method of boosting morale. Can it be used again next time? Will anyone still believe you? Because it was used in the last Taipei mayoral election . It was used once. Then it will be used again this time . Then Ke Wenzhe is too arrogant and talks about what he said . You will know who it is after the election results come out. He's not wearing pants, right ? Who's not wearing pants now? You're not wearing pants yourself, so of course Ke Wenzhe is also a thief. When people asked him yesterday, he said this. I haven't had time to do statistics . You media should do the statistics. Give me a table. I think that's right. It makes no sense to talk about this, but if everyone wants to review their own problems now , I think that is the part that the People’s Party should review, and the Kuomintang should review themselves. How did you end up in this election? It didn’t start until after November 24th, right? Because the previous Blue and White Alliance only started after the final breakup on November 24th. So you yourself have made yourself like this . Then I must also remind the Kuomintang and the Kuomintang of you . It is very clear from the table here that if it is a blue-white area, even if it is originally at a disadvantage, it is possible to win. If it is a blue-white split situation, those who have a chance to win will lose. Let me remind the Kuomintang . This time, the People's Party got 3 million party votes this time. It won't be like this for the next nomination. It will definitely nominate a lot of people , and it won't be necessary until the next county mayor and councilor in four years. At that time , he will nominate a lot of people . So how do you take this move ? There won’t be any problems with blue and white at that time . I’m afraid that the People’s Party is blooming everywhere. So how do you do this? So I don’t think you need to go to anyone. It’s meaningless . What if the war criminals are found? I’d like to ask the People’s Party for advice. Even the People’s Party now thinks that Huang Shanshan is a war criminal. It would be of no benefit to the Kuomintang to fire her. If the People’s Party gets votes this time, the people will win. About two-thirds of the people in the party tend to support the green side. Do you think he will really go with you ? He will probably only cooperate on certain issues. In the future, he will definitely be your competitor, so you have to think about it. In the future, many elections may be like this. How are you going to win against the other two people ? I would like to say that it is better. Fortunately, Wu Zheng is not strong enough in Zhang Zhilun’s constituency . He is really too weak. Otherwise, Zhang Zhilun will lose. Because in fact, Qiu Chenyuan did a pretty good job. It was not easy for him to get more than 40,000 votes , and he decided to run for the election very late. So in this situation, if you think about it , as long as the blue and green are evenly matched, white will launch a If the candidate is not too bad, the blue one is probably destined to lose. Basically, this is how to solve this problem. So I really think the Kuomintang should think carefully about it this time. Although it relied on some luck to become the largest party in Congress , The problem is that there are too many problems that have emerged within the Kuomintang. If these problems are not solved, don’t forget that most of the young people still support the Kuomintang. Four years later, there will be fewer young people. What should you do? So I really feel that the Kuomintang We need to learn from the experience this time. We don’t necessarily have to ask Julian Chu to step down because he made mistakes and did pretty well. To be honest, just like Brother Gang Liang said about his kind of integration, I think it’s very strange that Julian Chu is being criticized by everyone. At that time, he suddenly made a sudden move and made an integration that everyone expected. It was also very strong. But the problem is some of his other issues , including why he brought Director Guo to you in the first place. What was the content of your primary election? How did you do it? I think it is very important to decide whether the Kuomintang can correct these things, because if these things cannot untie the knot within the party, you can just find a few war criminals now to scare the monkeys. What will happen next time? The problem will be exactly the same . Change and the Kuomintang is getting older. Is this the right direction? So I really ask the Kuomintang to learn from the experience as soon as possible. Otherwise, your competitors will only become more and more terrible in the future . That is to say, you can no longer keep repairing the broken network. You can't break it first. The top priority now is to repair the network and establish the system first. Otherwise, in addition to the Legislative Yuan election, there will be another election in two years. Everyone must know that Taiwan's party politics has actually reached a watershed today. That is to say, we have gone from the two-party system in the past , because usually the two-party system is more common under the presidential system , but now it is clear that we will move towards a three-party system, at least until 2028. If there is still a chance in 2028 , I think this three-party system of blue, white and green will continue. You have to get used to it and it’s no longer just blue-green thinking. Basically, the blue-white-green triangle is party politics. I think it has become a foregone conclusion. I rarely see anyone discussing the Zhao Shaokang effect. I think the biggest thing about the Zhao Shaokang effect is to completely pull back the entire KMT base after the blue and white cut , and then completely show it in the media on November 24. It will not be inferior to Green Camp or Ke Wenzhe. Because of Zhao Shaokang, in fact, he was quite self-restrained in the end . After all, he was the deputy , but Zhao Shaokang is still the Zhao Shaokang effect. There is still no way to change this structural factor or structural factor. I think the factors are simple . Many people don't like Green's corruption. Many people don't like Blue's aging. Many people don't like the current atmosphere of cross-strait relations and Sino-US relations. Many people don't like the Chinese Communist Party. These people are actually criticized by Ke Wenzhe. He was attracted, especially by young people, and he didn't put forward any plans . He just didn't like Green's corruption and didn't like Blue's aging . Especially after seeing the process of Hou Youyi's emergence and his own conditions . These strategies of the entire Party Central Committee , so these people have seen the one thing they agree with is Ke Wenzhe. Will these things change? I want to say that I think Chairman Zhu Lilun has done a good job , but I think he should resign and step down. The first key principle of politics is It is responsible politics. If it is a government, if your policies are not good, you will step down. Political parties are very simple. Responsible politics is actually more direct and obvious than the government. Today, if you lose the election, you will have to step down. European political parties are like this, Japanese political parties are like this. This is true for political parties all over the world. Political parties have turned into electoral machines. Now, especially the structural problem we just talked about , the aging of the Kuomintang . In fact, no matter how many strategies and tricks you use , others will just regard it as another kind of thing. In the palace or secret room politics, you need to have a structural change. Whether it is Jiang Wanan or Lu Xiuyan, he represents a new generation and a new discussion. He has done it twice and lost twice. As the party chairman, Zhu Lilun, I think he has done a lot of credit for the Kuomintang , but As a political party, it is the responsibility of the political party to lose the general election and change the party chairman. It is normal in democratic politics , and now it is the key to the KMT really being able to turn the crisis into a turn as the two previous ones said.
