[SUB]伊朗陸空夾擊 美拋棄以色列? 新聞大白話@tvbstalk 20240414 (字幕版)

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What is very serious now is that hundreds of drones have flown to the Israeli capital , sounding so-called air raid sirens and continuous explosions. In the early morning of local time, Iran officially launched a large-scale attack on Israel . You can see the picture in the night sky . One of the flashpoints was Iran 's official retaliatory attack on Israel with large-scale drones and missiles. CNN called this the largest drone attack in human history. It seems very serious. Now US officials have revealed the third A wave of more than 500 small motorcycle drones and more than 200 missiles may take off from Iran to attack targets in Israel. The situation in Israel now looks very critical. The air raid sirens in Jerusalem are constantly sounding for air defense. The system is also in full operation, blasting out dazzling fires and explosions in the night sky. This is the current situation in Israel . The former director of Israel's military intelligence agency said that each Iranian drone is equipped with 20 kilograms of explosives. It's really terrifying. Now it includes this explosion map and the locations have emerged one by one . Now the Islamic Revolution Guards named this kind of attack on Israel the True Commitment. Iran's first direct attack on Israel from its own land. Now it includes The air base in the Negev was also hit. Now Iran's official news agency claims that Israel's most important air bases in the southern Negev were severely damaged after being hit by Iranian missiles overnight on Saturday. Half of the missiles fired They all hit the target. We can see that the current local air raid warning map is very dense and very large. Now it can be seen that it includes preparations for attacking Israel. Pro-Iranian militias have begun to practice so-called urban warfare, including We can see through the picture that this is a sniper attack on buildings mainly in Gaza. It is funded by Hezbollah to train Iraqi militia groups. He mainly released this video recently to simulate so-called combat scenes similar to the ones that were bombed by the Israeli army. The Gaza region has been interpreted as being very targeted, and now it includes whether the United States should take action. Everyone must be very concerned about whether the US military has intercepted an Iranian drone . Hezbollah has joined in retaliating against Israel by launching dozens of rockets. This now includes the northern part of Israel. Lebanese Hezbollah has announced that it has fired dozens of rockets into Israel , targeting the so-called air defense headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces at Camp Kayla in the Golan Heights. Now Iran has also confirmed the so-called drones and missiles. The United States reiterated that he Supporting Israel Biden’s urgent return to the White House Situation Room. This is a situation in the Situation Room . Who is in the Situation Room now? In addition to Biden, it also includes the Secretary of Defense , Secretary of State Blinken , and the CIA. The director is currently discussing the so-called crisis talks. Now it can be seen that the US warships are now deploying in the so-called Middle East situation. We have a picture for everyone to see. This is the US warship deploying in the so-called Middle East situation . Can you help now? Israel is out of trouble because we know that Iran is now attacking Israel. The United Nations Security Council has held an emergency meeting . Israel’s representative to the United Nations also said that Iran’s air strikes are a blatant violation of Israel’s sovereignty, including Netanyahu. He also said that anyone can harm Israel. Israel will definitely fight back . So is the United States going to take action now? Now that Iran has announced the end of this military operation, he also warned Israel not to make any more mistakes and exposed the United States. What consequences will you have if you intervene ? The Iranian delegation to the United Nations said it . After the completion of the first wave , it can be said that it is over, but he also emphasized that if the Israeli regime makes mistakes again, there will be more severe retaliation . He also emphasized that the United States should not intervene. If it insists on intervening, the U.S. military stationed in the Middle East will be hit. Then we know how big the U.S. military is in the Middle East. Iran’s military is the largest in the Middle East. It even has 2,000-kilometer missiles to target U.S. military bases in Israel. A British think tank analyzed it and said that Iran’s armed forces have With 580,000 soldiers and officers and 200,000 well-trained reservists, it is the largest armed force in the Middle East. Now the United States will not dare to move it. This includes Iran, which can now destroy US military bases in the Middle East and Israeli ballistic missiles. Hypersonic missiles also include mid- and long-range ballistic missiles like mud and rock, etc. Now they can reach at least 2,000 kilometers and provide a payload of nearly 700 kilograms . What did Biden say? Biden said that Israel won tonight. He reiterated that the United States will support Israel but will not attack Iran together. This statement made everyone feel a bit strange. How to say it? He said that US officials revealed that Biden told Natanyahu that because most of Iran’s attacks were unsuccessful, it was against Israel. It is said that it is a victory. The United States will not participate in Iran's aggressive actions. Japan's Tokyo exclusive news report said that Russia is now also increasing its efforts to attack Ukraine. What they say is that it is out of humanitarian considerations. Russia said that we did not launch the attack in winter. The attack may be different in the summer. Now, two Russian MiG fighter jets, including Russia's, which can carry Dagger missiles, have also taken off . Air defense alarms have sounded throughout Ukraine. Even foreign mercenaries now dare to kill Ukraine. The commander-in-chief has also issued a new order. This is as long as If you disobey orders, you will become a deserter. Now that Ukraine's counterattack has failed, more and more Ukrainian troops have refused to carry out combat missions. They say that others risked the risk and even had to retreat to block some of the shots fired from behind them, including the governor's troops. If you have to disobey someone even if you are at risk of being killed , let me first ask Ambassador what do you think about Iran actually opening fire yesterday? The U.S. military seems to have no intention of taking action now . In fact, this symbolizes that the Israeli-Palestinian war has officially spilled over and escalated in the Gaza Corridor . Next, we will see how Israel responds, because this is directly the case for many at the time. People predict that it is relatively unlikely to directly attack the Israeli mainland. Originally, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy and consulate outside the country. It did not directly attack the Iranian territory. So this time, Iran directly attacked the Israeli territory. So this is basically It has increased. I think Iran must have planned and prepared for this consequence. If Israel launches a relatively large-scale counterattack, it will also be subject to further counterattacks by Iran. In addition to its own very strong military power, Iran In addition , he has many so-called agents at his disposal. Hezbollah in Lebanon is the Houthi organization in Yemen. There are even some Shiites in Iraq. So this means that this issue becomes Israel and he has to consider it. That is to say, if he wants to upgrade, he may or may not be surrounded on all sides, and his enemies will appear. What everyone is still unable to clarify is that in the final analysis , more than 200 missiles and drones were used in this attack. Initially , Israel believes that the casualties were very small when it was revealed that they were blocked by its so-called air defense system, the Iron Dome system , and its entire defense system. As far as Iran is concerned, they think their information says that they have hit multiple targets. But I think this is difficult to verify because this information involves military information and everyone does not want the other party to say what exactly you hit, even if you are injured. How much will Israel release information based on its various considerations ? But basically, during this interception process, we got the news that in addition to the Israeli defense interception system, the nearby American military force also joined the entire Intercepting this incoming missile and this drone , so basically, I think what the US government said about this matter is that it just mentioned that it supports Israel but will not work together to deal with Iran. I think the United States is I hope this matter will not expand any further. I hope this matter will be over. Regarding Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations, he also wrote in it that he issued a brief statement. He said in one paragraph that the retaliation against Israel will be this wave. It means that he has no follow-up. The question now is whether Israel will continue to fight because he believes that his division is famous because Israel first attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria and killed many senior military officials of Iran. General , so this is a response to this matter. However, he also said that his official statement said that this time the response ends here. Next, we will look at Israel. The United States means that it hopes that this matter will not escalate further, so it is No matter how Israel responds, now that Netanyahu said he said there were casualties, if there is any harm, he will definitely respond. It depends on how he responds . Captain, what do you think? The reason for this attack is actually revenge. Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria. Now Israel's representative to the United Nations said that if Iran's air strikes are actually a blatant violation of Israel's sovereignty , then what if Israel attacks others? In fact, the last time it was when Israel attacked Syria When the Iranian Embassy in Syria was in effect, the Security Council actually held an emergency meeting , but in the end it was just a condemnation. However, if we look at Article 51 of the United Nations Charter , that is to say , the Security Council should take necessary measures when being attacked by force . Now it seems that the United Nations has no way to deal with many things. Then he said that in fact, this Charter should not be considered as a natural right to exercise individual or collective self-defense . But what we are talking about now is Iran’s current behavior , which is individual self-defense and not collective self-defense. Regarding the conditions , Israel’s air defense is actually very sophisticated because it has long known that it will be like this one day . We can see that one day it will face an attack from Iran , so it has deployed a four-layer interception system . The four interception systems can intercept up to 2,000 kilometers . Generally speaking, we see the range of 70 kilometers, which is the part of the Iron Dome. Then 70 to 300 kilometers, which is called David's Stone. This is the Iron Dome. This is The distance when David hurled the stone was already 300 kilometers. What we see here are the Swordsman 2 and Swordsman 3. Their heights are the 1,000 kilometers and 3,000 kilometers we just talked about . And this is assisting Israel. It 's definitely not just the Patriot or THAAD we just talked about , but of course there is also Israel's own system and what else. We look at it this way and it is deployed in Europe. We can see that it is deployed in Romania and Poland. There is the so-called land-based Aegis , but it has another system in Turkey. What is this system? It is actually an early warning radar . This early warning radar can see the launch of various missiles in Iran. That is to say, in Under this situation, Israel's casualties will certainly not be very large. This is the importance of the air defense system. If we compare it to the current situation on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, France has said that it will provide Ukrainian Aster30 anti-aircraft missiles. This is the Aster30. It has a lateral propulsion. system so its missile flight can reach 50 G's steering its range It can reach more than 60 kilometers. This reminds us in Taiwan that we really only have the Tiangong 3 and the Patriot . The altitude and distance of these two types of missiles are actually about the same. Do we need to develop to a higher level? This is the next step. What a defense minister really needs to think clearly is to consult Brother Bing. In fact, although Iran claims that it seems to have achieved very good results , judging from the reaction from Israel, the damage suffered by Israel should not be very serious. It should be like this because Israel's The air defense system is famous all over the world. In addition, Iran actually did not use very advanced missiles or drones to attack this time . In fact, it looks more like an attack. Although it is very large, it is said to be the largest drone in history. But in fact, the declarative significance of the attack is actually greater than the significance of the actual attack. In my opinion, this is what he said immediately after the attack: " We will end the retaliatory action and the military action will end. " In fact, what he meant was that he did not want to raise the level again. When Biden heard this, He immediately said that this was Israel's victory . In fact, what he meant was to tell Israel that you have already won and don't fight anymore. This is actually what it means. But the question is, will Netanyahu let it go so easily? Because although Israel's losses were relatively not that serious , it was still There are some losses . For example, news came out that a little girl was hit by shrapnel. In fact, it seems that her life is very critical, so Israel will still have some losses. Will Netanyahu take this time to proceed? It's hard to say what a wave of retaliatory actions are, but you can see from the whole thing why things have evolved to this situation today. In fact, it is because after the United States took control of the United Nations, it did not allow the United Nations to perform its proper functions at all. It was in Israel. When they attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria , they just verbally condemned it casually. Then you see, when Israel was attacked this time, the United Nations immediately and various countries and Western countries strongly condemned Iran. Your attitude of openly antagonizing others will of course make others angry. If you lose confidence in the United Nations , you will feel that you only care about your own friends and don't care about the life or death of others . Now, of course, if Israel can do it and the United States can persuade Israel to swallow it, forget it. Everyone has losses anyway , so if it ends at this level, it will actually be good for the whole world. But The question is, will Natanyahu choose to swallow it? Personally, I am very doubtful because the principle of Israel’s founding of the country has always been tenfold. Whoever messes with me , I will beat him until he pays the price, right ? Natanyahu immediately said at that time that he would definitely fight back , so the next step is to see how he fights back and how large it will be. This will involve the evolution of the entire situation in the future. Don't forget that both countries may still have nuclear weapons. If it doesn't work, it might turn into World War III. Let's take a break from commercials and come back to continue the discussion. He arrived in Chongqing, mainland China, and started a three-day visit, including environmental agriculture and transportation. Three ministers and many entrepreneurs are visiting China for the second time. It is also the first visit to China since Germany released its first China strategy report last year. When Xiaoz visited China, we can see it coming out of the plane. Having a red carpet is equivalent to a high-standard reception. And this carpet does not mean that there is no one after you get off the plane. The red carpet extends to the airport. So it can be seen that the Chinese side's reception of Xiaozi is very high, and it is a high-standard reception . Chongqing Xiaozi visited the operations of some German companies. This is a hydrogen company in Germany. Tomorrow he will go to Shanghai to have some talks with some senior business executives from Germany and even deliver some speeches at universities. In addition, Xiaozi When I arrive in Beijing on Tuesday, I will meet with Xi Jinping and Li Qiang to exchange views on bilateral relations and common issues. Foreign media analyzed that Xiao Zi’s trip was considered to be at a time when the trade war concerns surrounding the continent were taking shape in the West. It is to reduce the friction caused by trade with Beijing without offending Beijing. It is to strike a balance between security concerns and economic interests and to de-risk the policy . Voice of America analyzed that Xiaozi’s trip is bowing to the Chinese dragon. But bilateral differences cannot be concealed. France's Le Monde said that Germany prefers conciliation rather than confrontation when facing Beijing. The Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper also said that Schautz was repeating Merkel's trip to China and now includes some analysis. The report also said that Have times changed now? A recent report pointed out that China is moving upstream in the industrial chain and will surpass Germany in many key areas. It is said that the trade trend between China and Germany is changing. In key areas, China's share of the global export market has exceeded the so-called Germany is steadily moving up the value chain. After reading about Germany, let’s look at some parts of Italy . Is it a trend that Italy has regretted since it withdrew from the Belt and Road Initiative ? After withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative, it is now the first time to have high-level dialogue with China. To repair the relationship , China's Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs will now host a so-called bilateral meeting. The 15th meeting of China-Italy Cooperation and Economic Cooperation will include what topics may be discussed now, such as the so-called Mainland companies in the fields of electric vehicles and new energy are now going to invest in Italy. They want to make such propaganda to mend the so-called relationship. Is this the so-called Belt and Road Initiative? After the withdrawal, the Prime Minister of Italy will also visit mainland China because We know that Italy withdrew from the so-called After the Belt and Road Initiative , it seems that our economy needs to repair some relations quickly. He even said that the Prime Minister has already stated that maintaining good relations with Beijing during his future visit to China has become Italy's latest diplomatic strategy. The President of Argentina also reneged later. After the attitude softened, he also said that it is OK for people to do business with China. So it can be seen that the attitude of Italy and Argentina has become a bit looser. Then I saw that the Maldives can now use RMB to settle imports and pay with Alipay. He said Maldives. The so-called Minister of Trade of the Maldives said that the Maldives will soon be able to use RMB to settle so-called imported goods. The mayor of the Maldives capital also said that the Maldives will reduce its dependence on India , so in the future, it will include services such as Alipay. It may also be implemented in the Maldives. Then let’s see the attitude of the United States . Is the United States still determined to resist China? Yellen continues to speak out to the world about China’s overcapacity to sound the alarm. She said that she recently visited the mainland. She also warned that China's overcapacity will threaten global economic stability. She will go to the spring annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank on April 15 to unite European, Asian and Latin American countries to express common concerns about China's overcapacity exports. Now on Wall Street The daily also analyzed that cheap mainland goods are not new to the global market, but the recent surge. Some in the West call it China Shock 2.0, which will cause the United States to lose so-called jobs. We know that including the search and rescue team coordinators of the frontline drones in the United States are It is said that American companies have lagged behind for many years and DJI's ban will cost American lives. The main report is that he pointed out that American manufacturers have lagged behind for many years, but DJI's performance is very good and has a significant impact on life and death during search and rescue operations. Come over and ask Ambassador, what do you think of the effects of Xiaozi's visit to China? I think Xiaozi had to keep a relatively distant distance from mainland China in the past . That attitude was mainly influenced by the United States. Since the Biden and Xi Jinping elections at the end of last year, the United States has After the meeting, the thawing of economic relations between the United States and China has actually begun. Since the United States has made it clear that it will not decouple from mainland China's economy , it has no position to ask its allies to keep their distance from mainland China or even decouple. Therefore, I think the most important thing is that Xiaozi 's situation in Germany is very special. After World War II, there are still tens of thousands of American troops stationed in Germany. The United States also has a very large influence on Germany's domestic situation , especially their long-term influence on Germany. This kind of mental control makes the new generation of ideas in Germany very influenced by the United States , so it can be said that it can affect the internal development of Germany. So, of course, as Prime Minister, Xiaoz must be responsible for the German economy. In terms of this relatively empty ideology, For him, it will not help his political career. He must be able to stabilize the German economy and benefit the German economy. Only then can he secure this position. So I think it means that in the United States itself and mainland China The emphasis on economic decoupling is not economic decoupling . It only means imposing sanctions on certain high-tech products in mainland China or restrictions on the export of this technology based on security reasons. So I think he saw this situation and the time was more favorable to him, so he took it with him. Almost all of the big German companies that had long urged him to visit mainland China were BASF, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen. The top bosses of Germany's most important companies went with him . Why did he have to negotiate with China? It is a great cause for continued economic cooperation between countries because Germany's economy can be said to have been in a very miserable state in the past year . The only reason is that the price of raw materials has risen too high. In fact, Germany's technology and the level of the entire industry are not. It is very stable, which is why last year was so miserable. It was caused by the Russia-Ukraine war. In fact, in the past Merkel era , she established two important foundations for German industry. One was based on stable and cheap Russian energy , and the other was based on stable and cheap Russian energy. In a huge Chinese market that welcomes German products and continues to expand, it is not without reason that Merkel is loved by the German people. She sees the situation very accurately, and the decisions and policies she makes have an impact on the German economy. It is very helpful , but it is a pity that it is basically the middle of the two major foundations of the German economy. Russia’s relatively cheap and convenient energy was cut off by the United States due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. So what is left of it? One way is to cooperate with China's market and China's economy. If he loses this leg again, he will be crippled. Germany's economy will not be able to stand up. So I think Xiaozi saw it accurately, so he waited for the United States to go first. After that, he followed suit. I think basically mainland China should welcome him. This is because the United States continues to contain and even suppress mainland China's economy, so Germany doesn't care about its technology or market. And what about his this ? In terms of complementarity, the economic relationship with mainland China is still very good. So you can see that he was welcomed on the red carpet. I think if he went this time, he would be very popular now that he has just arrived. You will quickly see where their results are. Maybe it will be clear in the past two days. Is the carpet still extending? It does not only extend to disembarkation, but it also extends. I want to ask the captain what he thinks. In fact, we are now seeing this in Germany. In fact, the situation is that he wants to go back to re-industrialization. He was de-industrialized before , but he was forced to do it. He did not go to industrialization voluntarily. Why did he de-industrialize? In fact, the ambassador just mentioned this issue in particular , that is, when the Nord Stream 2 part was blown up and it was unable to obtain cheap energy from other parts , the United States began to make money from disaster. Germany began to sell very expensive natural gas to European countries. Germany was the first to suffer. When the energy it obtained was so expensive, its products must be more expensive. When its products became more expensive, it immediately lost its competitiveness. Now Everyone like Yellen, when she arrived in mainland China , she said that mainland China has overproduction. This has never been the case in mainland China. Instead, after it quickly reached the economic scale of the market, it began to sell this general mainland at a more reasonable price. Netizens talk about the cabbage price . When connected to satellites, you can buy a Huawei mobile phone to achieve it. You want to say that we use clean energy. Now everyone has forgotten why we need electric cars. Electric cars were never built for China, but the mainland Chinese government . Pursuing this clean air and reducing pollution can quickly achieve carbon neutrality. Next, we have to pursue a better environmental protection situation. That's why electric vehicles appeared. Now everyone suddenly realizes that when the United States through this When expensive energy is exported to Europe, all European countries , including Italy as mentioned earlier, are de-industrializing, and the United States is re-industrializing. In other words, the United States will use this opportunity to snatch back all the industrialization. After the seizure , the entire European economy began to weaken, so Xiaozi brought so many manufacturers to mainland China to solve this problem . Brother Bing also wants to ask you what do you think? I think it is natural for mainland China to welcome Xiaozi. Because now for mainland China, his strategy is also very obvious, which is to continue to communicate with these allies of the United States. As long as you do not reject me, I will be good friends with you and I will try our best to communicate with you. Only in this way can the United States dissolve its opposition. His intention to encircle mainland China is very obvious. Why do U.S. allies do this? Because they also need to survive for their own needs. Germany's economy is very, very dependent on mainland China. So you see, every time Xiaozi goes to the mainland, he brings There are a lot of entrepreneurs who just want to do business and discuss future cooperation plans. Why are countries like Italy also changing along with it ? It was abandoned all the way. Why did she also start to turn ? It's very simple . For European countries like Italy, which country in the world can make large-scale investments or large-scale corporate cooperation in your country now seems to have the most motivation. Mainland China is, so they still have to fight for it. This is the reality before you. You have to bow your head. Why does the Maldives use RMB to settle imports? You can even use Alipay there because it is an island country mainly for tourism. There are many mainland tourists. When traveling , it’s most convenient to use Alipay, so I just use it there . So I think the next thing to see is that this shocked the world. Iran really opened fire. This bombing started in the early morning, and 200 missiles flew towards Israel. Let’s come. Look at the scene at the scene. This was captured by many people at the scene. Fires exploded in the air. Of course, many of them were intercepted by the interception system , so they exploded. But the loud sirens frightened many local people in Tel Aviv and even hid. All kinds of actions in the air-raid shelters happened in the early morning. After subsequent inspection , approximately 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles flew to Israel to attack Iran. Iran announced that these attacks caused damage to the Israeli military base. But of course it was unfortunate because during the attack, a little girl was injured by shrapnel intercepted. The extent of the damage to the military base is still being investigated , but this is unprecedented for Iran to directly attack the Israeli mainland. In the past, it was through After all, the agent or the embassy was not in the country last time . Now, if the two feuding enemies directly attack each other's territory, will it lead to a so-called full-scale attack war in the Middle East? The BBC reported that Iran's actions are exactly what everyone is worried about. A country directly attacks another country. CNN's report and comment are that Iran's air strikes have pushed the situation in the Middle East into uncharted waters . But at the same time, preparations for attacking Israel are not just airborne. Pro -Iranian militiamen are practicing urban warfare. When we see the picture, we can see these so-called Is it possible that ground troops will also attack? This is just a drill scene , but the Russian-made semi-automatic pistols held in it. The surrounding building styles and situations are said to be highly targeted and very similar to the Gaza area, so this Is it not just air strikes? There may also be ground forces carried out by other proxies or other allies. But there is a message that can be particularly observed because Iran announced the end of military operations and warned Israel not to make any more mistakes. In other words, this is Iran’s diplomacy. The Ministry said that this matter is regarded as over. This is an important message. It said that you bombed our embassy and I have finished my revenge. Is this the end? Then he warned Israel that if you make mistakes again, Iran will take more severe measures. In response to your warning that the United States should not intervene, if the U.S. military insists on intervening in the Middle East, it will be attacked . So when Iran suddenly warned you not to interfere, Biden still had a phone call with Netanyahu , and he immediately returned to the national security The team went to the national security meeting for 2 hours. It seemed that the important message was the conversation between Biden and Natanyahu. If there are only these drone and missile attacks in the sky, don't fight back. As long as you don't fight back, such an attack will be over and it will be less likely to expand in scale. The FBI even said that it has not found any risks to the United States. Biden's statement condemns Iran. Tell the Prime Minister of Israel that tonight is a victory. What does the title mean? He told Natanyahu on the phone that you have won and saved your face. Iran has not caused any valuable blows , and the United States does not support Israel's counterattack. So... Is there a way to end it? And Natanyahu actually expressed his understanding and said not to fight back against such demands from the United States. So when the Middle East countries were frightened, these flashes of light appeared over the capital of Jordan that night . Residents heard the explosion. This is Iran. After the missiles and drones were launched towards Israel , many Jordanian residents posted pictures like this on social media. Jordanian people also said that at first we heard explosions in the distance, there were burning flashes in the sky, and they saw something. It rose and then fell. The Jordanian government did not officially make a statement. All aircraft entering and leaving this so-called tense area were bypassed. All civilian airlines , including Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon, have all closed their airspace to anyone who dares to fly there. Many countries have successively taken measures to deal with the possible impact of Iran's retaliation. Various travel warnings, including Australia, Lufthansa, India, Poland, etc., have all blocked this area. Of course, the first impact is more on the economic level and the aviation level , but now the war is Is it possible that it will end after the launch? Or are you worried about what the general said yesterday, which he judged to be a limited war but a more comprehensive terrorist attack? What do you think of brother Liang? Because the Iranian delegation to the United Nations said that this matter will come to an end. This should be considered the end. The language he used is called The matter can be deemed concluded . He uses the word "concluded" , but there is a proviso behind this premise. But he said that if Israel attacks us again, it will be endless. So Biden jumped in immediately. He said that he does not support Israel's counterattack , but Israel may not listen to Biden's speech because Netanyahu still has his own selfish logic. He hopes that it will be possible. He hopes that it is best for Hezbollah in Lebanon to follow Hamas's war , but Israel is a bit red-eyed. Just get rid of him once and for all . Of course, this will also use this to involve the United States so that the United States will not engage in such a regime change to replace Natanyahu because Natanyahu currently has a fragile majority. In fact, the alliance only has 4 more seats , so if the United States really wants to replace him, he can do it. So Natanyahu wants the United States to have to support him , so I think he really hopes to find another battlefield in the north. Because Rafa International’s condemnation of the southern part of Gaza that is currently being attacked is too strong , he dare not move now. And from this, we know that 7,000 people were withdrawn from Khan Younis. The 7,000 people were transferred to the north. I went there to prepare for a confrontation with the Lebanese Hezbollah. In fact, a commander of the Lebanese Hezbollah was also killed . So frankly speaking , no one knows whether Israel will take action against the Shia militias. It will not target Iran , but He was targeting these two agents, the Quds Force , and he killed two commanders and deputy commanders of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Maybe he would also target a relatively well-known official with a higher rank for an assassination operation. No one knows whether it would be because of this. This is really a fight because you have also seen Hezbollah in Lebanon doing simulated city warfare. Frankly speaking, they also want to fight. The problem now is here. So I think the variable is whether Israel will listen to the United States and say that you should not fight again. There is such a situation. What's going on? You hit someone, and they hit you. Don't fight back. In fact, I'm telling you, the New York Times has published this internal story , saying that the White House is very angry. Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, said that Israel should bomb Syria. Say hello to the United States, so the U.S. Department of Defense is actually very angry and says, "What are you doing to provoke this kind of thing? Are you attacking Gaza ? What are you doing to provoke Iran? And you are attacking their embassy. This is a blatant violation of international law. That's right . So Iran, let me make it clear. He is now The chance of succeeding in attacking several Israeli cities is very low because I heard that most of them were blocked. The interception system is very powerful. Yes, because he is looking for the murderer. In fact, he has publicly posted it everywhere in Tehran in Iran , saying that he wants to kill 5 people. Those 5 people. They are both commanders of the air force base , so he posted all those photos, so it is right for him to attack the air force base because he just wants revenge . So it seems that he will not bomb the Israeli foreign embassy because he is a diplomat and this time The murder case in Syria has nothing to do with it because they used F35 to drop bombs and fire 6 missiles , so I think they know who the murderer is . So what I mean is that Iran will use other methods to arrest the murderers and kill those few. The commander of the Air Force. This is the first variable. The second variable is that Israel does not listen to Biden and continues to fight Hezbollah in Lebanon in the hope of triggering further war. I think Natanyahu is increasingly adopting this mentality and I want to say The most troublesome thing about the success of this battle is the Israeli poll . Among Israeli Jews, about 74% support the government’s tough fight to the end. I think there should not be a deal with the release of the hostages . Israeli Jews are opposed to it. There are also Arabs in Israel who are in favor of a deal as soon as possible. So I think there are still many variables that will come into play. It is very fierce and the general public opinion is opposed. What do you think? Iran finally fired back. However, it seems that there are currently limited attacks on us. We can see that this has several characteristics. The first one is once again confirmed this time. Nearly 60% of UAVs are drones. In other words, drones are The Russia-Ukraine war has already confirmed that this attack on Israel in Iran will also prove that drones are the protagonist. Cruise missiles and other missiles are second. 60% and nearly 60% of them are used to attack Israel. It can be seen that drones are the protagonist. The protagonist in this aspect is on the battlefield. The protagonist on the future battlefield is the drone. This is indispensable. Secondly, we have seen that the five wars in the Middle East were all fought outside Israel. This time, we went to Israel and bombed inside the Israeli home. It has never happened before. We have fought abroad in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon , and even Egypt . But this time, we are in Israel. Therefore, it is frightening to the ordinary people of Israel. It is very simple , or it is a false alarm. This kind of nervousness has not happened for a long time. This time it suddenly showed up. The third one is that we can know this time whether Iran will use it against Israel in the future . I have three indicators. The first one will be against Syria. Will Israel bomb Syria or attack Syria ? Because there is something wrong with Syria. Will the Iranian troops of the Ye faction attack in that place ? If they attack, Iran will still take action. The other is to see. The second is to see whether Lebanon and Israel will attack these militias of the Lebanese Hezbollah and its armed forces. Will it carry out large-scale retaliation ? If so, Iran will also take action. The third one we see is the Gaza Corridor. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Gaza Corridor is still going on there and has not ended. It has not come to an end. If he continues to retaliate against Gaza, especially Gaza. If Israel carries out large-scale bombing or retaliation against South Gaza, Iran will also take action. We can see this. We can deduce that this should be logically established. In addition, we have another indicator that can be seen . Houthi organization in Yemen. After the Houthi organization controls Hon Hai , will there be any corresponding actions? Because the big boss behind the Houthi organization is Iran. It is very clear that the Houthi organization will have some support. Action , I think the Houthis organization is also an indicator. These indicators are to see whether Iran will continue to take action. The most important one is to determine whether Israel will retaliate. The third one, I think, means that the Iron Dome system also played some functions this time. But the problem is that Israel's Iron Dome system is compared to UAVs, which is superior to inferior . Because the Iron Dome system is very expensive, each missile of the Iron Dome system is nearly NT$7 million . If you want to convert it into Taiwan dollars, then it is more than NT$7 million. A drone is very cheap. If a drone flies over, it costs about 1 to 2 million per drone . It takes 7 million to fight a drone worth more than 1 million, because the more drones there are, the more it will cause Israel to lose every time in the Iron Dome system. Each Iron Dome system is very expensive, costing 50 million U.S. dollars, which is very expensive. Now Iran is also consuming a large amount of Israel's Iron Dome system. Israel's Iron Beam system has not yet been successfully developed , so it can only rely on the Iron Dome system. Come here to do its short-range final close defense. This time, Israel's Iron Dome system exerted its power , but the wear and tear was very serious because it hit more than 330 targets and destroyed 90% in the air. But the question is if this will still happen in the future. If there is a second wave of attacks, Israel's saturation attacks will reach a certain level. In this case, Israel will not be able to continue. So it is probably the consumption of its defense industry potential and its war potential. This is also an indicator. The key point is whether it will continue. There will be a next wave of attacks , because at first the Iranian side shouted, " I must burn Tel Aviv to the ground. " But look at the latest news released by Agence France-Presse, which is the public statement of the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Bagheri. It is said that this operation is called Honest Commitment Operation. It is now retaliating against the Iranian garrison for bombing their embassy. All goals have been achieved. It seems that the goal has been achieved. No matter how many interceptions there are, the first one has been achieved. I think the real key to this matter is actually On April 1st, Israeli F35 bombers dropped 6 bombs on the Iranian Consulate in Syria, killing 14 people. Seven of them were soldiers of the Quds Force. The United States is completely double-standard and the West is completely double-standard. If you open the American consulate In this region , in Africa, in the Middle East, 7 soldiers and 7 civilians were bombed to death. How will the United States retaliate? A U.S. aircraft carrier will come over and completely blow you up. This has happened in the past . The result of this incident has been from April 1 to the present. So far, the United States has not mentioned this issue at all. In fact, the United States said two days ago that Iran would take action. We know that it will probably use drones, missiles, surface-to-surface missiles , and some cruise missiles. The total is about 300 plus missiles. Total number of humans and machines So in fact, this is a complete double standard. I think Iran has the legal right to exercise the inherent right of self-defense in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. I think it does. Because this time I saw that it launched these from Iran’s territory, which is nearly 1,500 kilometers away. Drones and missiles, he does not have his Quds Force or his militia bases in Iraq or Syria , so this is Iran targeting Israel , and what he attacks are these F35 military bases in southern Israel, American and British fighter jets It took off and intercepted part of it over Jordan , and most of it was Israel's Iron Dome defense system. It probably dropped a few missiles and hit the military base. So everyone , I think why Iran can't do this for legal defense. I was targeting your military base, and I was not there. The people in Tel Aviv who beat you because you hit me first and you didn't make any apology. Did you declare war with the Quds Brigade? Did you declare war with Iran? Quds Brigade, you said that they were doing similar military activities in the consulate. Which country does not have the United States? A lot of Israel also attacked you first, violated international law and caused the death of people. I think Iran must respond , but it stopped here, which means that 300 missiles were aimed at your bases and knew that even if they were all hit , it would be nothing more than that, but it was big. Part of it was intercepted. The United States is afraid that Biden will expand the attack on this matter, and Biden will not be elected. But as Brother Liang said just now , Natanyahu cannot control Israel at all, nor can he control the Middle East. The situation is completely decided by him alone. Iran’s attitude is very clear. As long as you don’t fight back, the matter will be over. Even if the revenge is over, let’s take a look at the various competitions between China-US relations and Europe. German Chancellor Scholz arrived in Chongqing and saw that When he got off the plane, a red carpet was laid out to welcome him. This official visit to China included three cabinet ministers, including environment, agriculture, and transportation, as well as many business leaders, including Siemens, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz. Because the total trade volume between China and Germany has reached 253 billion euros , such a high dependence on trade volume also makes Xiaoz must hope to maintain a certain relationship with China. This is the second visit to China. How do foreign media analyze the purpose of this trip? Are they said to bow to the Chinese dragon? During the interview, some people interpreted the concept of bowing to mean that the German economy is still highly dependent on China for many products and raw materials . Therefore, the economic downturn is forced to remain in the Chinese market. Of course, the eastern part of China cannot be cut off. The president of the German Chamber of Commerce thinks this is good news and said that our interests in losing this market by insisting on opening up the market are of course much greater than by imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods. There is absolutely no gain in opening up the market, so our respective interests are higher. So on the eve of Schaud's visit At that time, analysts from a German think tank believed that the proportion of companies in Germany that still relied on the mainland for industry and trade volume had dropped to less than 40%. Therefore, the reduction of risks in the mainland has achieved significant results. Of course, there are different opinions and views in the country . What about the United States ? When Lun went to the IMF annual meeting, he still emphasized China's overcapacity and kept talking about it. China just produces too much , which affects other markets and threatens your low-price competition. You want to rush to dump the goods , but right? Is it true that there is overcapacity ? Is it true that the Chinese electric vehicles piled up in European ports and become parking lots ? Of course, European industry leaders say that in fact , the overcapacity of mainland electric vehicles is one of the main reasons for this problem. Some Chinese brand cars have even stayed there for 18 months, treating the parking lot as a warehouse. But in fact, industry insiders say that you have to look at it from another angle. The main reason why the port has become an imported car warehouse is the slowdown in sales and logistics bottlenecks. It is also a problem that some companies have ordered transport ships but are unable to schedule subsequent transport shipments . Even Tesla has ordered a lot of trucks so that the cars cannot be transported. Is this one of the main reasons for the jam? Mainland China Ministry of Commerce Minister Wang Wentao responded that China's electric vehicle companies did not obtain competitive advantages through subsidies . The overcapacity accusations by the United States and Europe are baseless. So in the trade war between the United States and China, does the U.S. dollar still have an advantage? Let me tell you one thing from the Russia-Ukraine war . The U.S. dollar The world of monopoly has changed. Of course, it is not the only time when currency exchange has the final say. Let’s calculate the international export market in 2013. Mainland China has ranked first in the world in trade export volume for 7 consecutive years. Looking at China’s international export market by numbers The share of imports is 14.2% , which is 10.6%. Compared with 2022, it is at the same level. It has maintained its status as the largest country in goods trade for 7 years. The Washington Post said that we should be careful because the impact of China 2.0 version is coming, and we must sit tight because Cheap Chinese goods are no stranger to the global market , but overcapacity may further exploit the interests of workers in American companies and lead to over-concentration of the supply chain. Therefore, this kind of anti-China resistance will avoid being robbed of jobs and business by China. This atmosphere also allows Biden to continue to list 319 more Chinese companies on the entity blacklist. Yesterday, we specially discussed that this has surpassed Trump ’s record . Therefore, in such a de-China or global If the supply chain is to be cut off , global joint de-dollarization will be a trend. This trend is serious. Of course, it is the most serious analysis. Will it cause the collapse of the US government? Of course, it is difficult to completely remove the US dollar. It is not easy. However, this analysis believes that because Biden mistakenly regards the U.S. dollar as a weapon , it will accidentally cause global de-dollarization, a trend that is uncontrollable and irreversible . However, if U.S. debt begins to be unsaleable, it may even happen that 30% of U.S. debt cannot be sold. The U.S. dollar is no longer the only international currency and is becoming more and more diversified. Of course, it will take some time to replace it , but the impact on the United States will definitely be great. Let’s take a look at what German Liang Ge thinks when Xiaozi goes to China. I think the representative meaning of the visit is that Xiaozi uses market methods to negotiate. Unlike the American one, which is just a random concept. In fact, the definition of overcapacity is that you have invested too much in production factors and the output far exceeds the market demand. The supply is too much, so what about us? Let’s look at Europe. The current proportion of electric vehicles in Europe is 15%. The total market share of gasoline vehicles is 36.3 %. Gasoline vehicles account for 24.3%. In mainland China, pure electric vehicles account for 15%. And these 15% are not all sold in China. So the European electric vehicle market is still far from overcapacity, so I don’t know what Yellen’s concept is. Frankly speaking, Yellen’s introduction of this concept this time has completely destroyed her authority in economics. People will just treat you as Politicians like Biden have no logic at all , so when you compare Germany, Germany uses the logic of market negotiations, that is, I hope to reduce dependence and reduce risks , so he also requires China to open more markets to German companies. In addition, In fact, German companies are already ahead of the curve. They ask China for a joint venture . They cannot say that you earn all the electric cars and you have to share some of the profits with me. Of course, they can also ask for Chinese electric cars to set up factories in Germany to increase the number of German workers. It is reasonable to hire this person , so I think Xiaozi’s visit this time is a slap in the face to the United States. Moreover, Xiaozi also deliberately made a move before visiting China , that is, he logged into Douyin. Don’t you think it is very intentional, right? To put it bluntly, he really doesn’t agree with what the United States is doing. Why else would you log into TikTok? And Macron also logs into TikTok. So I think now gradually I think mainland China is trying to win over Europe. In fact, we know that Wang Yi visited France and Spain when he visited Europe. In fact, he also said that when he met with the Spanish Prime Minister in Spain, he publicly said that the Spanish Prime Minister I was wrong, and he said that as long as China and Europe can If we are united , we will not be able to fight a new Cold War . In fact, this sentence has profound meaning and is very smart. So I think mainland China knows the China-EU Investment Agreement because the EU is very complicated and cannot be passed because some countries in it are pro-American, so mainland China is now a One breakthrough is that some of the benefits of opening up that I originally promised in the China-EU Investment Agreement may be targeted at France and Germany. I think he may do this. In this way, China and Germany must win over China and France , and then do what should be done according to market logic. A business negotiation and then comparing it to the unreasonableness of the United States is probably like this: Let’s take a break and be back soon. The German Chancellor led a delegation of officials and businesses to visit mainland China. This is considered to have a great significance for Europe’s attitude towards the confrontation between China and the United States. General Change , the German Chancellor, brought Siemens and BMW Mercedes to mainland China , hoping that mainland China would buy more German things, because Germany’s products for mainland China would be imported into super market. If he imported 58.4 billion euros into super market every year, There are so many euros. Euros are 58.4 billion euros. Today, 1 euro is equal to 1.07 U.S. dollars, which is 59 billion U.S. dollars. You have a trade deficit like this. What do you want to do with these manufacturers ? I hope mainland China will place more orders to buy these Siemens Siemens There are many products such as e-commerce, artificial intelligence , and some of the work machines we are talking about. They are all Siemens . Siemens electronic equipment. The products are very diversified and there are many. They want to buy German products because they want to reduce German prices. The trade deficit with mainland China is like this. In fact, it is the same as the situation in the United States . This time Yellen went to mainland China, the same thing happened . She hoped that mainland China would buy more American products. But the problem is that American products are expensive and not necessarily easy to use. Everyone is right. As for mainland China, the United States and Germany continue to maintain a trade deficit with mainland China . Let’s see how to balance it . Now Yellen is talking about the threat of overcapacity in China. I say this is a reason. The most important thing is that the labor cost in mainland China is low. The labor cost is low , so naturally the product price will be low. The product price will be low, and people will buy things from mainland China. If this happens, the market in mainland China will become larger, and everyone will have a trade deficit with mainland China. Then China will Mainland China has been enjoying a trade surplus. In this way, China earns a lot of foreign exchange and has become like this. So Yellen said, how can there be overcapacity? It is because the prices are cheap and high-quality products are cheap. Those middle class people who cannot afford high-end products are buying these. These products we are talking about are mid-range and mid-range products, which happen to be products from mainland China. Therefore, products from mainland China have this advantage because the current national income in mainland China is 13,000 U.S. dollars, while in the rest of the United States, it has reached 70,000 U.S. dollars. dollars Of course, its labor costs are high, which is a structural problem, and there is no way to complete it in one or two seconds . Also, when we talk about the issue of U.S. debt , I think it is not that simple to de-dollarize it in the short term, because everyone still wants to buy U.S. dollars, and Britain is still buying it. U.S. debt. Japan is also buying U.S. debt . They are all buying U.S. debt , so U.S. debt is still a strong currency. No one dares to jump out and talk to the United States. You have so many national debts and you have sold so many U.S. debts. The hegemony of the U.S. dollar should step down. No country dares to say this because everyone has eaten too much U.S. debt , but diversified trading is becoming more and more common. Unless diversified trading becomes common, it is a fact... Of course, it will slowly replace it and there will be this trend. But there is no way to completely replace the US dollar in a moment or two . Of course, de-dollarization will not be that fast , but there are more substitutes in other trading markets. This is the possible threat. Take a break and come back soon . The European port screen is full of Chinese electric cars. When people stop here and talk about overcapacity, of course China is vigorously fighting back. Professor, what do you think? In 2022, a New York Times headline said that China is burning too much coal and is harming global climate change. In 2024, its headline said just recently. Yellen warned China not to release too much clean energy. In 2014, Harvard Business Review said why China cannot innovate. In 2021, it said that China’s innovation advantage surpasses that of the United States. In 2024, he said that the United States and Europe should cooperate to prevent China’s innovation. Everyone, let’s look at cars now. Exports of domestically produced cars are those made locally. 75% of German domestically produced cars are exported in Germany. This does not include Japan’s 50% and South Korea’s 70% made in other countries around the world. China’s exports in mainland China only account for the domestically produced cars. 15% of the car's price is too low
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Channel: 新聞大白話
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Length: 59min 45sec (3585 seconds)
Published: Sun Apr 14 2024
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