Fortunately, there are actually a lot of things happening in Northeast Asia right now. I want to bring you some attention to the international situation. The main reason is because many people saw the news today and said they were shocked. How could this happen? This kind of thing happened here in South Korea. Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the largest opposition party, was attacked . What happened at the time was that there was a person who pretended to go to Lee Jae-myung to sign and take photos. However, he pulled out a sharp knife from his pocket and then directly attacked him. He attacked Lee Jae-myung and he fell to the ground on the spot. This man has been arrested and rushed to the hospital. Their president Yin Xiyue quickly came out to hold a press conference and said that the attack on him would not be tolerated. At the same time, he ordered that a thorough investigation must be carried out as soon as possible. However, there were unnamed members of Congress. What does it mean to ask whether there might be a so-called conspiracy ? Because he said that the attack on Lee Jae-myung might be to cover up the fact that the opposition party wants to pass the first lady and the special prosecutor law . Some people also think that Yin Xiyue is the mastermind behind this. This kind of theory has been heard all over South Korea because in the past, it was true that Lee Jae-myung had gone on a fast in order to protest against Yin Xiyue's regime and there were many things that he did not obey. At that time, Yin Xiyue also approved Lee Jae-myung was detained at the time because he was said to be under investigation for some corruption cases during his term as mayor at that time. Two people who had been in contact with each other in the past 2023 were suddenly killed , leaving everyone with a lot of room for imagination . More What's more, Lee Jae-myung actually has a very high voice of 22% in the next term . No one knows whether he may become the next president. However, such an incident happening now will have a huge impact on South Korea's political situation . As for Japan, If you have watched the news these days, you will know that they are facing a natural disaster, that is, an earthquake plus a tsunami , and maybe even a fire plus a volcanic eruption. This earthquake has caused many houses to collapse. Even at that time, it was reported through the news I also saw on the screen that suddenly a fire broke out because it was at night . The volcano on Luer Island even erupted directly and volcanic ash shot up to a height of 1.6 kilometers . I also saw a car on the road because the tsunami almost hit it. We hit the shore directly. At that time, a car was almost hit . The viaduct was also shaking due to the earthquake. Even the cars in the parking lot were shaking like washing machines. You can know how powerful the earthquake was at that time . Now some people are saying that At that time, the road ahead was cracked like tofu. He said it was like a scene in a movie. In fact , Japanese experts directly explained that there are nearly 10 faults in this earthquake zone, which may all be here . An earthquake moved simultaneously, which has broken a 139-year record. Now, because of the experience of the 311 earthquake in the past , there was a female anchor during this earthquake. She was actually broadcasting the ball game , but she asked everyone to immediately Run away and flee , and also said don't forget what happened back then, don't sit comfortably, don't walk to the shore, and evacuate immediately because after this incident , after the last 311, everyone is very experienced , and there are even people on the Internet. People say that even if a tsunami with a height of 1 meter hits you, you may die. There are even rumors on the Internet that before the earthquake , they saw a sky full of crows gathering . They even said that such a sight had never happened before. Have you ever seen it? Is it possible that this was an early warning given by nature to people at that time ? There are many, many opinions on the Internet. Looking back, what we want to know is that up to now , major events have happened in Korea and Japan. I would like to ask Commissioner Zhengyuan what do you think about the changes in Korea ? The unexpected attack on Lee Jae-myung in South Korea was a natural disaster in Japan and a man-made disaster in South Korea. The current struggle between the two political parties in South Korea has become too fierce. After Yin Xiyue became president, he took advantage of his opponent Lee Jae-myung 12 Years ago , when he was the mayor of a small city, an unclear case was brought up to investigate whether he was corrupt. So this is essentially a very strange case. He was the mayor of a small city and later became the mayor. The capital elected the mayor of the capital and then became the chairman of the opposition party. When he was elected president, he only lost 0.7% to Yin Xiyue. If Hou Youyi also defeated Lai Qingde by 0.7%, Hou Youyi would not have retaliated against me. I feel that Yin Xiyue has gone too far. That is because the two parties are arguing and arguing about the inclusion of Japanese nuclear wastewater or North Korea's nuclear weapons. It is undeniable that one of them is sometimes deliberately done by the opposition party. The fault is because Yin Xiyue's wife originally lived a relatively luxurious life , so they created a special prosecutor law specifically to investigate the president's wife. This is the first time I heard that the president's wife was investigated . I have never heard of it , so you know this from two aspects. The fight is a little bit less concerned with size. Is it so? Will there be some supporters of the other side who suddenly start committing crimes in this situation ? Of course it is not welcome, but the competition is so fierce. Sometimes it is true. It is inevitable , so politicians sometimes have to be restrained when competing. This has something to do with it. It is not good to bring the people into a state of excitement and even madness. Japan is very sympathetic . Let us express our condolences to them . Earthquakes are unpreventable. Japan, Ryukyu, and Taiwan are on the same first island chain, including the Philippines. There is no earthquake. This is the fate of the first island chain , plus volcanic eruptions because it is on the volcanic belt. Well, this tsunami is not wrong. I just said that the tsunami is 1 meter. Don’t underestimate the tsunami. The 1 meter tsunami is pushed up from the sea. How powerful is it? It hits people like being hit by a car. So don’t think it is water. It is very powerful. It’s a big force , so I think the Japanese anchors also responded very well. Maybe other countries , maybe we in Taiwan can learn from it . If an earthquake occurs temporarily, we should quickly call on everyone to leave the seaside through various media. Because there was a situation in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia back then. It was said that an earthquake occurred in the deep sea and all the sea water receded. Many people were very happy and said they ran to the beach to play. Unexpectedly, when the sea water came back after about 40 minutes, they could no longer escape. That time in Bali, it was The damage done to Usatojima was very, very great. Japan's lessons learned , but its disaster relief efficiency was good, which is worth learning from. Let's go ahead and let's go back to the advertisement. Let's continue to talk about the attack on the leader of the opposition party, Lee Jae-myung. What kind of impact will it have on the Korean political scene ? Please tell me, Mr. Lai . Conspiracy theories are currently booming because Yin Xiyue's current poll support is very low. 60% of those who oppose him only have 30% who support him. And then add in the period of his rule. South Korea's economic situation has deteriorated very much. Currently, its economic growth rate is more than 1% , but its inflation rate is more than 3%, so its people generally have a great sense of relative deprivation , which means that prices have risen. But your economic growth is too little, your income has decreased, and your expenditure has increased, so the people's dissatisfaction is getting bigger and bigger. In addition, its relationship with the mainland has deteriorated. We have also seen many industrial products and even products from mainland China. Semiconductor products can already replace South Korea , so South Korea has turned from a long-term surplus with mainland China into a deficit . In other words, mainland China has become a surplus country . This is an export-oriented economy for the entire South Korea. To make matters worse, the current situation is that when his poll support has been low, the congressional elections in April are coming. It is generally estimated that it will be very difficult for him to win the election , and the ruling party should not win in Congress. The possibility of being in power. In this case, he will become a lame president because he can no longer dominate the Congress. Therefore, most of these bills may be dominated by the opposition party . At this time, we see that Lee Jae-myung actually They were all campaigning for the election of their MPs and were assassinated in an action during the auxiliary election . Currently, the assassin is said to be about 60 years old. There are various rumors. One of them is that it is very likely that he was a member of the same party. Some people in the factions say they are from different parties. No matter what, their biggest conspiracy theory is that Yin Xiyue is the leader. This is a conspiracy theory that the purpose of the leader is to find different opponents of their own party. But is there anything behind them ? There is a bigger conspiracy that no one knows about, so I think Yin Xiyue's first stance is very clear , that is, he must be punished severely. But this man in his 60s has been arrested, and his background information will be investigated and he will be brought forward. Can the argument of assassination be accepted? I think there is a series of actions behind this . But if it is indeed a big conspiracy, this will have consequences as big as atomic bombs in the Korean political arena. We hope this is just pure It is a personal grudge or a deviation in personal behavior. However, seeing that democratic elections have reached this part in the end, Taiwan’s candidates still need to be careful and remind everyone that they must conduct all election-related matters rationally and legally. Activities , or in other words, before you act, I hope everyone can return to a rational level and look at these things pragmatically. We will advance advertising , etc., and ask Commissioner Shengfeng to help us summarize the historical tradition of political assassinations in South Korea for the past hundred years. Please take a look. Looking at the historical facts of assassinations from the court to the colonial era to the subsequent era of the South Korean government, this kind of assassination is nothing in South Korea. At the same time, if a political figure is killed, it is a political event as long as there is no relationship with that person . Because I am related to He may have a debt dispute, so it's different. This assassination incident of an unrelated person is probably a political incident. That's where the problem lies. The problem is that Yoon Seok-yue is now a president who is not trusted by the Korean people. They all call him the president . A president who is not trusted has many reasons for not being trusted. Let’s briefly talk about it. He sacrificed a lot of Korea’s traditional values and traditions and then moved closer to Japan and the United States. What did he want to gain? In fact, he wanted to gain the most at that time. The goal is to replace Russia in the G8 , because in this case, whether he will have this in the congressional election in April this year will be a big deal , because it sounds good to the Koreans. In fact, how did the Democratic Progressive Party respond to this vice presidential debate? Of course, Zhao Shaokang was referring directly to Lai Qingde. He specifically mentioned that this time he saw why many people in the media would think that this was the case , or many blue camp supporters would think that this was the case because he thought that now 80% of them are green media. They are talking for the ruling party and have not fulfilled their responsibility of supervision. How do they respond to the competition ? They just say that this is 80% like Han Kuo -yu. He got angry and brought it up again. Han Kuo-yu is here to show you that South Korea is This election Although they say that they are running around , they are actually relatively low-key. However, a recent poll with a sharp focus said that they did a survey on who they hope will be the leader of the Legislative Yuan. The first place is Yu Xikun, and then Han Guoyu. Then why is Huang Shanshan? At this time, everyone is talking about this matter , because this time it is not just about electing the president, but this time there is also the election of legislators without districting . The first place in the Kuomintang's district-free election is Han Kuo-yu. You can see on the Internet that many people will Put yourself together with Han Guoyu, and then next to Han Guoyu, you will want to think about how his number is 9. The reason is because he is not a candidate , but the KMT’s party ticket is No. 9. Then when Zhu Lilun went south to help collect votes, he In particular, Han Kuo-yu asked him to tell everyone not to look for the three words Han Kuo-yu on the ballot because you can’t find it , and don’t look for Ke Zhien because there are only names of political parties on the ballot , only the Kuomintang of China. Fortunately, in this election, Although it seems to you that he does want to keep a low profile because after all, he rarely accepts exclusive interviews with the media , he continues to be a focus of the DPP's attacks , so everyone knows that his popularity on the Internet is still the latest one in 2024. In 2016, the strongest campaigner who measured the Internet thermometer found that Hanguo Yu ranked first. Even his online popularity was lower than that of your second, third, and fourth place combined. He had more people than him. Everyone started talking about it now in this election. The Kuomintang has always been slightly ahead in the polls of various companies , but now before the closure of the border, the friendly Taiwanese polls were done, and they said that in their current estimate, the Kuomintang may have 14 seats , regardless of the district. The Democratic Progressive Party has 11 seats. The People's Party has 9 seats. He emphasized that the small parties may be completely annihilated. As for Ling Media, the closed poll conducted by Ling Media directly stated that the blue and green parties each won 12. The People's Party will have 10 seats . Although the smaller parties will get fewer votes , the problem is that they are really optimistic about the People's Party. One is 9 seats, the other is 10 seats, and all of them will exceed it. Is their original estimate of 8 seats really like this? So far, everyone has seen the closed polls . It seems that Lai Qingde has never exceeded 40% for any one of them . He originally called Teacher You Yinglong 45%. The theory is that 40% is the basic base of the Democratic Progressive Party. Now it really doesn’t even have the basic base? He thinks it may be because Tsai Ing-wen’s administration in the past few years has become his option to deduct points , and he even has a special He mentioned a place that is the only cooperation zone between Blue and White, which is in Taichung. He said that as long as you know that Cai Qichang was elected with more than 100,000 votes last time, you will know how stable he was at that time. And this One time , her opponent Cai Biru called out the golden cross. She said that although she didn't win a lot , she had already won. The people operating here are the Kuomintang, the Kuomintang and the Kuomintang. Will calling out the golden cross now, will Cai Qichang really be defeated in the end? If he is really pulled down, would it be chilling if he was pulled down by the opposition in a place where he is sure to win and as stable as Mount Tai ? In the final golden stage, the Kuomintang has released all the military orders and asked 15 county and city chiefs this morning. They all came out and stood on the street and said they were going to start a street fight. Is it possible to get more votes for myself in the final battle? Is it possible to turn over hundreds of thousands of votes in the last few days ? Everyone wants to know. I would also like to ask Commissioner Zhengyuan how to look at it, because at this final critical stage, it seems that the DPP will still pull some strings with Han Kuo-yu. Last year, I don’t know which month, I have been judging that the KMT will be successful in this year’s legislative election. After winning the election , the whole situation turned this way. There are several main reasons . The first one is that there is no possibility for the KMT legislators to form a three-power alliance in the regional legislator constituencies. There is no saying that blue, white and green must be blue and green. Due to the fact that White did not have many nominations or the candidates were not very suitable, although some people have opinions about the blue-green duel, it is actually like this. This is the first reason. The second reason is more important. It is also necessary. Let me praise Zhu Lilun again. Although I sometimes criticize him and praise Zhu Lilun, his proposal of gerrymandering is really good . It is probably the best proposal by the Kuomintang in the past 3 or 4 terms. It is probably the best proposal of gerrymandering since Ma Ying-jeou. The most important thing is not to say how many votes you can win. At least you won’t get scolded. This time it really has this effect. The third one is to talk about the Kuomintang this time. The nomination of regional legislators is really ideal . Just dare to re-employ young people. Don’t be too impatient. A few old gentlemen and old ladies came out and said that I am older and I have priority. This time, they are gone. Zhu Lilun was the boldest and comprehensively mentioned a bunch of young people . This is given to the Kuomintang and others. A very good impression is that the Kuomintang is not the LKK. You also have many young men and young women , so this pairing will have a big impact in the election . Each of these young Kuomintang members is very hard-working . Many people feel that Even if I may not be elected, I will fight hard , so when I saw the hard work, I felt very touched. So I think these three factors will really make the KMT do a very good job this time , so no matter what the polls say , Consider using polls to determine who the so-called legislative president is. I think it is a ridiculous statement because the voters of the Legislative Yuan are legislators and not voters. This is a very simple matter. Therefore, Hanguo Yu has a higher chance of being elected as the Legislative Yuan this time than anyone else... Because I have calculated it several times. The Kuomintang is close to the majority of the seats , so if it’s me, Gao Jin Sumei, I often joke, work harder , the Kuomintang needs your help. If they get two seats, maybe it will be just over half. If it is not enough, I think this is based on Han Guoyu and Ke Wenzhe. The relationship will also form an alliance with the People's Party. Under these conditions, Hanguo-yu has a higher chance of being elected as the Legislative Yuan than anyone else. So there is no doubt about this. As for the number of seats , I think the Democratic Progressive Party is not divided. Being able to get 12 seats is already a ceiling. Even if the ceiling is that the Kuomintang can get 13 seats, of course we can see how many seats the People’s Party will get and cut them by votes . Because the non-districting algorithm is just adding the last digit, adding, subtracting, and subtracting. Sometimes it’s very difficult to tell. Therefore , the Kuomintang has 12 seats for non-regional legislators, which is the starting price. The DPP has 12 seats, which is the ceiling . This has been determined. However, the People's Party has 8 seats, 9 seats, and 10 seats. It is a bit uncertain. Its base is 8 seats and the upper limit is 10. Xi, let’s look at the last one. As for the so-called strongest candidate, I’m not convinced. How can Zheng Wencan be better than Xie Longjie? There’s something wrong with this poll. It’s inconsistent with experience. It ’s impossible. Just take a look. Why do you care so much? The volume of voice on the Internet The volume of voice on the Internet... But we also want to ask Commissioner Shengfeng what do you think? The reason is because when Zhu Lilun went to Kaohsiung to help with the election, he directly said that Han Guoyu told me that he must tell me His name will not be on everyone’s party tickets , so please don’t look for Han Kuo-yu anymore. Look at the column of the Chinese Kuomintang. This Han Kuo-yu is also being picked up by Zhu Lilun to urge party votes. What do you think of Han Kuo-yu? Of course he has his appeal. But in this election, I see that he is very self-controlled , very self-controlled, and very hard-working. The so-called full-hearted effort means that if you don’t work hard, how can you convince others to vote for you in the future? The candidate is Hou Youyi. I think either he or Zhao Shaokang should be quite moderate. OK. This second one, I want to continue what Commissioner Tsai said. We can look at the Kuomintang’s performance this time. I boldly say this about the election of the Communist Party of China . I really boldly dare to say this. If the Kuomintang adds non-party membership, it is very likely to pass the majority . This is definitely not a joke. This is not a joke, because in many areas we go to see it district by district. If you can make a prediction based on the information you can see , it is because the DPP has several basic pain points this time. In the first one, they changed 7 temporary generals. What they can win is an unexpected temporary general change. It is normal to lose , and the person who is replaced is not necessarily better than the person who is replaced, right? These are the 7, which have at least made a lot of situations clear . There is also one who will definitely lose, called He Bowen, right? Master, right? They were all cancelled , and he himself is very smart. He knew that he had a problem , so he didn't register for a master's degree when he registered for academic qualifications. However, he did say that he was cancelled , so he could still stand for election. Do you think that one will pass? No, so it won't work like this. When you add it up, the probability is basically over half. It is really high , but you don’t have to add non-party membership alone... As for the non-zoning part , it should probably just increase or decrease with these numbers, which is 14 seats and 11 seats. There won’t be too many surprises when the numbers 9 seats rise or fall . It’s hard to determine one or two because of the relationship between the decimal point and the decimal point. It’s hard to see. Finally, what I want to talk about is this election. The most interesting thing among them is Cai Biru and this Cai Qichang in the first constituency of Taichung. I want to create an interest in that constituency . If you go to the countryside to do some fieldwork, it will be very interesting. It will be good if we change people and do something like this in this election. It's troublesome, yes , it's not you who is good or not. It's actually very fun. It's fun to vote for Cai Biru. Have you ever heard people say this when you went to do fieldwork ? It's interesting because no one thinks you will go to Cai Biru. No one thinks you will. The Kuomintang almost thought that you wouldn’t be admitted because it was a green district, but in the end, she kept playing because all the KMT legislative candidates also went to her constituency to gain popularity , and then she also went to the candidate district with many KMT candidates because of this They all represent Blue and White. He cannot say that I support Ke Wenzhe , but if I bring this Cai Biru together, how about we sweep the streets together? What is the equivalent of Ke Wenzhe's doppelganger? Then these people also go to Cai Biru's constituency. There are many in Cai Biru's constituency. When the legislators go down, you say that you are a voter. Do you think this is fun? Now the Kuomintang is also sending out heavy troops. It is also fun. And then the mayor and so on. Everyone feels that there is an anti-Cai Qichang force that is also very strong. There are democratic leaders within and outside the party. The Kuomintang within the party also has a group of people who want to pull him down. So when these groups come down, it is not that Cai Biru will definitely win. It has now formed a situation where it is interesting to fight and make voters feel that it is interesting to participate in this election. When the current incumbent It 's probably dangerous. I can give you my observations and understanding as a reference. In the past, there was a place where everyone thought it was possible to overturn, but it turned out to be the time when South Korea elected the mayor. At that time, everyone thought that How could the Democratic Progressive Party's Kaohsiung Chen Qimai reverse the election ? Is that right? Did the same effect occur that year ? But looking back, we also want to ask Mr. Lai , what do you think of the reason? Because in this election, Of course, many people say that Han Kuo-yu has a very loud voice , but you can also see it in some aspects. For example, he rarely accepts exclusive interviews with the media. For example, he always goes to the legislative committee and is very strict about the rules. I think this time he is different from Han Kuo-yu last time. There is a difference in electing the mayor of Kaohsiung City. When the mayor of Kaohsiung City was elected, Beipiao was actually a friendly Taiwan. They succeeded in the news media , and the people of Kaohsiung felt that the Democratic Progressive Party had been in power for a long time . It became more and more declining , and then it became more and more declining, so the children of Kaohsiung had to go elsewhere to seek development. At this time, we saw that Han Guoyu, who was originally one of us, was very smart to get on this train and then hit hard . The people of Kaohsiung felt that they wanted to change things. Of course, we saw it turned over for the first time unprecedentedly. At that time, there was such an atmosphere and such a feeling that it formed a wave that swept the whole of Taiwan. The whole trend passed quickly. Currently, we cannot feel this trend. We cannot feel this trend in the election of legislators . Even our opponents in dark green constituencies cannot feel this trend. I don’t have a strong feeling about the trend of turning it over , but I think because the DPP ’s eight years of governance have been very bad and under very bad circumstances, it is obvious that Tsai Ing-wen can no longer serve as an election supporter , so Tsai Ing-wen can no longer serve as an election supporter. Ing-wen himself does not dare to go down because I believe that many of their legislators do not want Tsai Ing-wen to come to his office. This situation is the same as when Ma Ying-jeou was about to step down for the second time, when it caused anger and resentment. Of course, I am sorry for Ma Ying-jeou. You are indeed When the internal affairs are causing outrage, many legislators do not want you to come to the platform because it is not a good thing for them to come to the platform . So you will see that the current president Tsai Ing-wen did not dare to go down, and Ma Ying-jeou did not dare to go down at that time , because this is a A situation of the atmosphere , but I think based on the current situation, if we look at the volume of voices on the Internet, I think this Lu Xiuyan is worth looking at. Among the current mayors , whether they are the mayors of various counties in the blue camp or the green camp , they are helping other friendly parties. He was the only one of his own comrades or friendly parties who spoke so loudly when campaigning for elections. In other words, if you look at other county and city leaders, Jiang Wanan lost tens of thousands of votes to Lu Xiuyan , so you can see that Jiang Wanan is already considered this She has a very good image among young talents , but it is obvious that because she is the first term , Jiang Wanan should be re-elected. However , Lu Xiuyan is paving the way for her future political situation after her last term . I think she may It is another dark horse for the future of the Kuomintang. This is not necessarily true. I think I personally want to look at the last three parties. If it is less than half, I think the trend is the most likely. Of course, Brother Zhengyuan and Brother Shengfeng both believe that the Kuomintang will take a lot. A lot, and the non-party members may be added together to get more than half. I am not that optimistic. My personal estimate is not that optimistic, so I think the possibility of the three parties not being more than half is relatively high. In this case, the People's Party will be in the most advantageous position . That is to say Whoever benefits him the most will have a high chance of cooperating with the Kuomintang. The Kuomintang will not necessarily cooperate with the Kuomintang. All matters at home and abroad will be explained to you in words you can understand. Let me first introduce the guests for this hour. It’s Mr. Lai Yueqian, an expert in international politics. Host, hello everyone. Hello friends, Cai Zhengyuan, a doctor of law from Tsinghua University in Beijing. Hello everyone. Hello everyone , and former legislator Li Shengfeng, host. Hello everyone . The one I want to show you first is yesterday’s Vice President. At the debate, Zhao Shaokang signed it directly in front of everyone , saying that I resigned as chairman and director of China Broadcasting Corporation. What did Lai Jingban say now ? Because who was he betting on? He was betting on Lai Qing, De Lai Jingban. Just tell me directly that your resignation is fake because you haven't given up your equity yet. It 's just lip service . Let's take a look at Dai Weishan's statement. She said that basically this is the same as Hou Youyi not announcing their own family assets. It 's just lip service. It's not you. Then Lai Qingde was sorry. We made explanations many times. The neighbors helped us and said that this was not a ghost house. He also said that Zhao Shaokang ’s current situation was basically intimidating the unknown heroes who contributed to Taiwan’s economy in the past to highlight themselves. The elite think well. In fact, yesterday Zhao Shaokang asked, was he really asking about the neighbors next to him, or was he asking about Lai Qingde’s house? Because yesterday he pointed out that if a security guard’s salary was 50,000 yuan, Calculating, the security budget over the past few years should have been 70 million. The National Security Bureau said it was not that much. Our sentries and other things are all old and we just moved them over and used them. Only the one with a monthly rent of 8,000 actually paid for it. People are starting to ask , so everyone does meritorious deeds without any money, without salary? Will this matter have any impact on the final election? What I want to show you now is a closed poll 10 days before the election. It can no longer be announced later. Today, each company has released a poll on the catwalk. Now the latest one is 33%, 30%, 22%. Lai Xiaopei maintains the lead with Hou Kangpei, 3% difference. The other part is ET. Basically, everyone's curves are very similar , and the difference is about 3 points. The United Daily News poll is quite different. Because there has been a golden cross between the two parties in the past. 31% has no result. Hou Kang dropped 4% and Lai Xiao went up slightly by 1%. What is more special is Ling Media . Although the ranking is still the same , here First of all, they specifically pointed out Lai Xiao's support , saying that if the turnout rate in Taiwan is 70%, they have estimated the votes, but they think that in the southern part of the country, the current vote rate in Kaohsiung, Tainan, seems to be There is no way to exceed 50%. This is much different from the 60% or above in Tsai Ing-wen's era. So , is there any way for Lai Qingde to do a good job or even a good job in the matter of South-South votes and North-North subsidy ? They think it may be a big change now , especially in the past. At that time, Tsai Ing-wen was the most stubborn young people in the election . Now all the young people from 20 to 49 years old are on the downward path. Because of this, Teacher You Yinglong has now begun to estimate votes. Teacher You Yinglong, how does he calculate the vote estimates? He assumed that the turnout rate was about 68%, not 70% , but about 68%. He calculated the number of votes cast by each person, and that's what he said this time. In fact, if you show him the distribution, it is clear that it is possible . The second place is closer, and the third place is probably lower , but still has a certain degree of support. So if he calculates the number of votes with a turnout rate of 68%, he will be surprised to find that Ke Yingpei’s number of votes is Maybe the number 2.92 million votes seems familiar . The good reason is that in 2000 , when everyone first heard about abandoning bail in the presidential election, it was at that time that even Xiao Pei received 2.92 million votes. Therefore, now, Teacher You Yinglong believes that this is the case. Once there was a mysterious number called 39.3%. He thought that there might not be a majority winner , but if someone could get 39.3%, which is the vote rate that Bian Lupei got back then, he might be able to win. Okay , but let's start. After talking about it, it seems that it is different between now and the past because in the past, even Xiao and Song Zhang belonged to Lanying. Now you have to put Ke Ying and Hou Kang together. He feels that it is different from the past to say that the two are not from the same school. But there is another explanation. This is what teacher Wu Zijia said. He said that if Ke Wenzhe can reach 22% or even 23% , he may pull down Lai Qingde. To put it another way, does this mean that in fact ? Now that Ke Ying is paired with Ke Wenzhe, what he can get is more green votes, which may not have much to do with the blue votes . If he gets enough green votes, it may be clamped down. Lai Qingde , with Lai Qingde’s 39.3%, can he really not get 40% of the DPP’s base? After all, he himself said that he will rush to 45%. Now is the last day to talk about polls. Hurry up and listen to the expert analysis and ask for advice on this Zhengyuan How do the committee members look at the reason? Of course, Zhao Shaokang was the one to blame at yesterday's debate. Lai Qingde, when are you going to dismantle me? I have signed my resignation first , but when Lai Jingping said he was resigning, he was just resigning and the equity is still in your hands. Regarding what Lai Qingde said on the debate topic, in fact, Lai Qingde’s biggest mistake was to say that the Republic of China is a disaster. Of course he talked about it for a long time. I will briefly explain it. His original intention is the Constitution of the Republic of China. In fact, regardless of the Republic of China or the Constitution of the Republic of China, it is a disaster. This is very It is a serious mistake. No matter how he explains it, it is difficult to explain. What kind of impact it will have on the middle voters is the target to be observed in the past few days. I think the blue camp should seize the initiative in this discussion. As for the others, I think whether Laipiliao or they want to criticize China Broadcasting Corporation or Hou Youyi's house, it has probably been fully reflected and absorbed in the polls . Because the issue is not difficult to understand , it is easy to agree or disagree. But regarding the Republic of China, it is a Disaster is a very frightening topic for many people. I have lived my whole life in the Republic of China. It turns out that the Republic of China was a disaster. Many people cannot accept this , so this place has a certain impact on the movement of median voters. But now various polls show that What kind of phenomenon is shown? It is like a blind man touching an elephant . Everyone seems to have a part of the truth. Everyone seems to have different differences. It is difficult to evaluate , which leads to various inferences. You Yinglong made the inference and Wu Zijia made the inference. But in fact, it is the election. In terms of people's focus, we can draw three conclusions . The first conclusion is that Lai Qingde is still leading in almost all polls. The second conclusion is that Hou Youyi is rushing to catch up. The gap is getting smaller and smaller. Now there is still a week left, and the gap will be To what extent is it small ? This may be a big point. The third point is to agree. Even if Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi tied in the end , what determines the outcome is the voting rate of their respective supporters. If we talk about each camp, If he can push the turnout rate of his supporters to the extreme, his chance of winning will be higher than others, because after watching previous local elections, the turnout rate is often the key to victory or defeat. I thought that someone would definitely win, but the result was unlucky. His supporters thought he was sure to win, but he didn't come out to vote. What was the result? He lost inexplicably. This kind of case is very common in Taiwan's electoral history , although it is less common in presidential elections. But this possibility is that when the stalemate between the two armies is extremely extreme and the victory or defeat is just a little bit , the turnout rate of the competition is that the whole family, regardless of age , will be dragged out to vote if they are lying in the hospital bed . If you have this spirit, I think Hou Youyi's victory The probability of selection is still very high. It just depends on the past few days . But of course, what I am worried about is whether the inertia of the blue camp will be higher when the weather is bad. I think Brother Shengfeng will agree with me , but this is the election of the blue camp. I compare it to when Ma Ying-jeou was elected mayor of Taipei for the first time. Everyone thought that he would definitely win in the end because he was very popular , but they were afraid that if they didn’t vote if they thought he would win, they would lose. So at that time There was an advertisement. The TV advertisement suddenly went dark when everyone was having dinner the night before. Then it said that Chen Shui-bian was elected . Many people were shocked. Wouldn’t they just vote tomorrow? Why was Chen Shui-bian elected? It was announced at 7 o’clock during the meal. The second result of Chen Shui-bian’s election is black on a white background . If you don’t vote tomorrow, many Ma Ying-jeou supporters will be so scared that they won’t sleep all night the next morning. The whole family will just play mahjong and queue up at dawn. This has never happened before. I have seen the phenomenon in front of the polling station . Voting starts at 7 o'clock at most. At 5 o'clock, there are already people standing at the door. He was scared to death . He said that I couldn't sleep last night, so I had to wait in line. So Hou Ying wanted to create this effect. What is this effect? To create , it depends on the trader's ability. If such a goal can be achieved, I think the winning or losing will be very small, very small , very small. Then there are some changes in the rest , such as 30 to 39 years old , what will drop or rise because of that sample It's very small because you have more than 1,000 samples per sample and then cut it into such a small section. It's very small and the accuracy is not high , so it can only be used as an inference. Well, then we would like to ask Commissioner Shengfeng. The main reason is because now In this poll conducted by Ling Media, Ling Media must know that in the last election, he accurately predicted the vote ratio of the mayor of Kaohsiung, Tainan, which was blue and green , so everyone will be very concerned about what he does this time. This number is because what he did this time is that Lai Qingde is now in Tainan at 42.67%. It is hard to imagine because this may be lower than Huang Weizhe last time. It is even lower than Huang Weizhe in Tainan. His natal area was always 6 Can you imagine 70% ? Kaohsiung said 45.99%, neither side can exceed 50%. That would make it difficult for everyone to estimate and understand who is more accurate. Now if it is said to be such a number, then it is possible. What kind of result will it be ? And what are the current reasons for such a result? How do you analyze this? I agree 100% with what Zhengyuan just mentioned. I think if we participate in elections or this operation for a long time , it is probably Observing the current phenomenon, I should all agree with him. Instead of sticking to the results of which poll, it is better to look at the development trend. This trend is simply that the DPP has reached a ceiling. Do you think there will be a ceiling now ? No. Yes, the Hou part is still moving forward and has not reached the ceiling. Third, Ke Laosan, this will probably not change. I think this trend is only about whether you can break through the ceiling in the remaining 12 days. The difference is only here. Second This election has one of the biggest features : the competition is fierce , but the election situation is very cold , don’t you think? The competition is really fierce , but it is very cold, especially the supporters of the Democratic Progressive Party . They are so cold as I have never seen before . The candidate's supporters are the most enthusiastic. Of course, that one really doesn't require transportation of people, so it can fill up the venue. The other two parties still rely on transportation. This is a big difference , but because you don't have a grassroots. Strength comes from the fact that the boom can be relatively proportional in the end . This is problematic, so we can probably understand this part . It is so cold that it is hard for you to imagine coming to the blue camp again. Is there any abandonment effect that you are looking forward to ? If you expect it too much, it will only melt slowly like an iceberg , and there will be no collapse. If you think like that , you will make the mistake of misjudgment. Third, we must also admit that Ke Wenzhe has Several strategies are quite good. He withstood this. In fact, it was beneficial to Hou. Ke Wenzhe announced that he would not choose or I support Hou. Then I will tell you that the variable is completely out of your control . Why? Please pay attention to Ke Wenzhe until now. Haven't you ever spoken about opposing Taiwan independence? Haven't you seen the second one? He also nominated people for Taiwan independence. The third one he has publicly spoken about is " one in one, one in one". He didn't mention the last one. He only attacked The new trend has not attacked the Democratic Progressive Party. Have you paid attention to the results of combining these four? What is he trying to stabilize ? It is the light green votes that allow him to have so many light green people today. I want to use him and hope that he will teach the DPP a lesson or do something like this. But relatively these actions will make the people in the light blue start to make some moves. In this election, there is no best of both worlds. This is what we want. We can roughly see that we will lose that , and then finally we have to look at the Democratic Progressive Party. The Democratic Progressive Party actually in 2012 When Tsai Ing-wen first came out to challenge Ma Ying-jeou, she was not very powerful . But even then the enthusiasm of the DPP was much higher than the current enthusiasm of the Democratic Progressive Party, which looks like it is preparing to be elected. Don't you think it 's strange? In 2012, it was difficult to win. Everyone was still full of enthusiasm. Now, from the beginning, they thought it would be easy. However, everyone is cold. Why is it because the demands of the DPP are no longer ivories ? In addition to smearing red, what else can he do? Do you have any tricks? The second is that he himself has too much persuasion and cannot arouse the enthusiasm of his supporters. Just like that scoundrel, what he said today ? And when Zhao Shaokang did this behavior, look at their response to me . Oh my God , I almost fainted. He said that your equity does not count and you have not donated it. What nonsense are you talking about ? But when a person who thinks he will be elected is still telling nonsense, he will probably see it soon. Damn it, you can imagine those situations , but if you think his reaction is OK or not, let me ask Mr. Lai, what do you think? We see that these young people who are supporters of Ke P are indeed very enthusiastic and actively participate in Ke P. P has basically participated in these rally meetings held in every place he visited. According to this inference, the higher the enthusiasm, the higher the turnout rate. Then relatively speaking, whether it is the green camp or the blue camp, The enthusiasm of the camp is very low, relatively speaking, they are indifferent and feel a little alienated . If the turnout rate of both sides declines on that day, the situation may be completely reversed . So sometimes we often The so-called breakthrough is what happens in these things . The enthusiasm is very high and the turnout is very high . Then another person thinks that there should be no problem. As a result, the turnout is low , but the situation has changed . If according to the estimation of Zero Media, that is to say, the people If the votes of Lai Qingde or Xiao Meiqin who joined the party in Tainan and Kaohsiung are not enough to replace Taipei, this situation will actually appear. Central Taiwan is very important. That is, we often talk about returning to the most traditional time to decisively fight for Central Taiwan . That is to say I think the voters of these counties and cities in central China should seriously consider whether their decision-making will affect the future of Taiwan. Your vote will indeed have a great impact on the future of Taiwan. The last one I think is that Lai Qingde is trying every means to avoid the situation of not demolishing his house . It is obvious that Zhao Shaokang insisted on not putting it in yesterday's debate . Don't forget that Zhao Shaokang is only a candidate now. He is not an elected person, he is not a current vice president, he is just a candidate. Then he was accused by the Democratic Progressive Party of having both politics and media, so he resigned from the media and the chairman of the media. No one would ask for it . I think the general public in this society also No one will ask him to give up his equity. There is no such thing. As long as he resigns as chairman, he already feels that it is a bit too much. He is just a candidate . And you, Lai Qingde, are the current vice president. The current vice president is illegal. I feel that these people who are willing to criticize and still refuse to criticize and defend him shamelessly to this day are untenable and are damaging to their own image in society.
