Strong Towns | Charles Marohn | Talks at Google

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My favorite line of the talk might be, "Our cities should not be worried about forcing people to walk a block or two, they should be worried about not being worthy of a one or two block walk".

👍︎︎ 13 👤︎︎ u/keyzter2110 📅︎︎ Dec 05 2019 🗫︎ replies

Thank god for Mahron.

I think his points, while not encompassing every single issue perfectly when it comes to urban design, make a strong case from the human scale aspect, as well as the financial aspect. And the latter is super fucking key for getting more sensible urban policy more mainstream in America. The more people realize the financial insolvency of their municipalities, the more they're likely to make personal sacrifices when it comes to density to ensure they maintain the services they desire from their municipality.

👍︎︎ 7 👤︎︎ u/[deleted] 📅︎︎ Dec 05 2019 🗫︎ replies

I just obtained his book on my kindle, very excited to read.

👍︎︎ 1 👤︎︎ u/tuna_HP 📅︎︎ Dec 06 2019 🗫︎ replies

His narrative for Detroit is the most cohesive, convincing, and terrifying one I have ever heard. 😬

👍︎︎ 1 👤︎︎ u/quasi_social 📅︎︎ Dec 08 2019 🗫︎ replies
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CHARLES MAROHN: It's very nice to be here. Thank you. Thank you for the invitation and also the warm welcome. My name's Chuck. I am an engineer and a planner from a small town in central Minnesota. I'm the president of an organization called Strong Towns. Our mission is to support a model of development that allows our cities, towns, and neighborhoods become financially strong and resilient. This is the last stop for me on what's been a 40-day kickoff event for the release of our book. It came out October 1st. I'm glad they've got copies here for you. You can get them anywhere. I want to start with an idea, a concept, that is very popular in the planning professions, that has also kind of crept out into the broader world, this idea of make no little plans. This is a quote from the great planner Daniel Burnham. We take this quote, because it says something about who we are as people, who we aspire to be, who we want to be. It's something that draws on I think our greatest sense of aspiration. Make no little plans, dream big, think of the possibilities, and then go out and reshape the world. We put this in our kids' bedrooms when they're born. We chisel this into granite, and stand and admire the thought. We use these words to inspire us to reach for greater things. And there's something beautiful about this. There's something amazing about this idea, make no little plans. Daniel Burnham, when he put together the Chicago plan, made no little plans. He had a grand vision for what this city, decimated by fire, could be reborn as. And we, in the planning profession, look at great plans like this and admire them. We admire them for their vision. We admire them for their aspiration. We admire them for how they inspire us to reach for something greater. When Daniel Burnham put together his plan, he looked around at the cities around the world and was inspired by what he saw, inspired by what the great cities had accomplished. And this idea, this embodiment, in the early 1900s, of make no little plans, not only inspired a city in Chicago, but inspired an entire nation. How do we go out and make no little plans? The interesting thing about the cities that inspired Daniel Burnham is that they were built at a time when our reach was constrained, far more than our vision. We could dream, and design, and imagine amazing cities, but we had a very limited capacity to build them, certainly to build them quickly. That changed with the advent of the automobile, with the advent of mechanized construction, with some of the modern building and construction techniques that came available in the early 1900s. And by the time we got through the Depression, by the time we got through World War II, and we actually got down to the business of making no little plans, we can look across the North American landscape and see that we certainly followed Burnham's advice. We made no little plans. And we went out and took no little actions. We went out and reshaped an entire continent around a new set of ideas, in a very short period of time. This is an amazing transformation, something unprecedented in all of human history. The idea that we could take, and in kind of one fell swoop go out and remake the way people live, the way people meet each other, the way they interact, the way they conduct commerce, the way they fall in love, that we could reshape an entire landscape around a new set of ideas, in literally the blink of an eye. We look at this pattern of development, this make grand plans and go out and execute on them style of development. What we see is that these places would grow very, very quickly. Our reach was no longer constrained. And all of a sudden, we could go out and make all kinds of things happen. This is a map of Fresno, California. We use Fresno, because we've got some really great maps of Fresno. But you'll see in this map cities around North America, because they experience very similar kind of growth patterns. This is the boundaries of Fresno in 1897. Watch what happens over time. This is the Daniel Burnham era. Now we hit the Great Depression. We get to the end of World War II. And now we kick in, where all of a sudden we're going to reshape an entire continent. And the development pattern, our capacity to build, our capacity to reshape, our capacity to grow our communities changes dramatically in a very short period of time. A city like mine-- I live in Brainerd, Minnesota-- it's a couple hours north of Minneapolis-St. Paul-- at the end of World War II was around 13,500 people. Today, my city is 13,500 people. It's 10 times the size. This is a different style of growth, a different way of building a community, a different way of creating places. What we created was a machine that allowed us to implement all of these grand visions all at once in a very short time frame. And created a lot of growth for our communities, but at a certain long-term tradeoff. This is data from Lafayette, Louisiana. At the end of World War II, Lafayette was a little over 33,000 people. Today, it's a little 120,000. That's a three and a half times rate of growth, a tremendous amount of growth in the post-war period. But when we look at a place like Lafayette, and we say, all right, what does it take to provide water service to the people in Lafayette? At the end of World War II, it took five feet of pipe per person. Today it takes 50 feet of pipe. That's a 10 times increase. What does it take to provide fire protection for the people there? Well, at the end of World War II, it took 2.4 hydrants per 1,000 people. Today, it takes 21 times that. So while this pattern, this way of building our cities, now today allows us to grow very, very quickly. We can grow our population by three times. What we see is that we're growing our liabilities by much more, by 10 times and 20 times. We could maybe justify this to ourselves, like this might make sense if our people were also becoming wealthier, if our families were becoming better off, if our small businesses were prospering. But when we step back and we look at the people of Lafayette, very much like people around the country, what we see is that they are saving less, borrowing more, and their incomes are just not keeping up. We grow our liabilities by 10x and 20x, but our actual wealth grows by only a tiny, tiny fraction of that. This is an approach that has a diminishing set of returns, a set of returns that, while very profitable for us in the immediate decades after World War II, has started to become less, and less, and less so over time. And what we see are cities that are struggling to make ends meet, cities that have difficulty doing basic things, like maintaining parks, and maintaining roads, fixing sidewalks, and crosswalks. We see cities of all sizes struggling with these basic, basic things. There's a reason why this is. The development pattern that we have enacted, the one that is now-- kind of enables all these visions to come true in a very short period of time, grows very, very quickly, but it lacks a certain level of productivity that we see in this more limited style and approach. These are a neighborhood-- this is a neighborhood in my hometown. I'm going to show you a couple blocks right here to focus on. You'll see these blocks are the same identical size, the same identical area. They have the same amount of public infrastructure built on them. You can think of this as they cost the city, the community, the same amount to provide service and maintenance to. When we look at these blocks, that one on the left is a collection of little pop-up shacks. These would have been on the far edge of town, back in the 1920s when these were built. Today, you've got a pawn shop, a couple liquor stores, a tattoo parlor, pretty much the lowest value rent place in the community. Two blocks over used to look just like this. The city labeled it blight, got it torn down. Now we have the new Taco John's drive-through. Don't know if any of you have experienced Taco John's or not. It's the Norwegian version of Mexican food. You would appreciate the tater tots dipped in a mild Cheddar cheese, just like they do in Mexico, I've been told. We were thrilled about this switch, right? We got rid of blight. We got rid of something that was old and blighted. We got something that was shiny and new. We got something that met all the requirements of our zoning code. It met all the building standards. It's now fully sprinkled. It's got ADA compliant bathrooms. We've got plenty of parking now in this new development. It meets the sign ordinance, the floor area ratio. The environmentalists showed up at the meeting and asked us to put native plants in the stormwater area. In that little five foot gap between the curb and the street, there's some shrubbery in there that met that. The bike-walk people showed up and wanted a sidewalk, so we put a little stretch of sidewalk in there. The sidewalk ends just right off screen, but we got that stretch. Everybody was thrilled about this, right? It met every checklist that we had, including the capacity to be financed on a secondary market, insured, this was a home. Here's what nobody bothered to consider. That old, blighted, rundown block has a total value of $1.1 million. That shiny and new one-- it's the same size area, the same amount of public infrastructure, the same essential cost to the community, but at a value of only $600,000. Understand what you're looking at. That old, blighted, rundown block, that traditional development pattern, that kind of constrained way that we had built for thousands and thousands of years, in its infant phase, after almost a century of decline and neglect, still outperforms financially the stuff we build brand new today. And it's not even close. We've all been around long enough to understand what the future of that taco place is as well. 20 years from now, that taco place will be a used car lot 10 years after that, it will be boarded up. We'll be trying to get some type of tax subsidy to tear it down and rebuild it. This is a pattern we see repeated over, and over, and over again. This site is not some strange anomaly. It's part of a broader pattern, a pattern of growth and development that we have seen that creates a sharp contrast between the way we built in the pre Daniel Burnham era, the thousands of years of human history of building places incrementally over time, and this new post-Depression, post World War II pattern of development, where we go and we build our cities all at once, and we build them to a finished state. This is the city of Buffalo. What I'm going to show you now is a series of maps put together by a good friend of mine, named Joe Minicozzi. Joe runs a firm called Urban3 out of Asheville, North Carolina. And they do financial productivity modeling for cities. They've modeled hundreds of cities around the world. What I'm going to show you right now, think of a cornfield. The parts of the field that grow up the most robustly, we say that's the most productive part of the cornfield. That's where we get the most bushels per acre. Where in a city do we have the most financial productivity? Where do we get the most value per acre? And I start with Buffalo, New York, because first of all, I have a soft spot for Buffalo. I like it. It's a city that I like a lot. But it's a place that struggles deeply. If you go to Buffalo, the decline, the blight, the despair can be overwhelming at times. Buffalo has lost population every single year since the end of World War II, including last year. It's been a steady, downward decline. Yet, when we step back, and we say in a city like Buffalo, where is the wealth? Where's the most productive parts of the city? Can you point to that traditional development pattern? Can you point to that part of the community built before the Great Depression, before World War II? Not only is it a massive repository of wealth, but it absolutely dwarfs everything that we have built subsequent. This is something we see in cities of all sizes. Here's another place in upstate New York, same kind of pattern. We can go around the country and look at different places, of different latitudes, different sizes, different east-west parts of the continent. And no matter where we look, what we see is the same general pattern repeated over and over again. Our pre-Depression development pattern is financially very productive. Wherever we have walkable neighborhoods, they are very productive. Wherever we start to build second and third stories, we find development that is very productive. And whenever we find this post-war development pattern, this very spread out, very decentralized, very flat type of development pattern, we see something that costs a tremendous amount to provide service and maintenance, but doesn't produce nearly as much wealth. This is a little city by where I live, Crosby, Minnesota, about 1,200 people. When I first went here, they said, Chuck, we have some great stuff happening on the outskirts, on the south of town, some great stuff happening out there on the east of town, but those core neighborhoods just struggle. They're really rundown. They're really bad. We need to figure out some way to get this stuff torn down and renovated. And then we showed them where all their wealth is, in those poor neighborhoods, in the neighborhoods where all their poor people live. This is a pattern of development that we see repeated over, and over, and over again, this idea that our new kind of experimental way of building cities, of transforming things, of taking these grand visions that we had and put them into action, very quickly, all at once, to a finished state, creates a developed pattern that allows us to grow very, very quickly, but is failing to produce the amount of wealth and prosperity, particularly the enduring wealth and prosperity necessary for us to take care of all of these obligations we take on when we grow and develop in this way. This is a map of Lafayette, Louisiana. It looks similar to the prior maps that I've shown you. But this one is a little bit different. This one is not a map of financial productivity. You can think of this one more as a profit and loss map. As part of a team, along with Urban3, I went to Lafayette, Louisiana, and helped them analyze all of the expenses that the city was experiencing, all the road and street maintenance, all the parks, where their transit system went, their fire and police protection. We mapped all these up in separate maps, here's where you're spending your money. Then we looked at all of their sources of revenue. Here's where your property tax comes from, here's where your sales tax come from, here's where your utility fees come from. We mapped all those up. At the end, we mashed all these maps together into this profit and loss map. Everywhere where you see a blue property is a property that is paying more in taxes to the city than it requires in ongoing service and maintenance. Everywhere where you see red is the exact opposite. These are properties that cost more to provide ongoing service and maintenance on an annual basis than they generate in revenue. What's going on here? There's a core in the middle. You see that spike, the higher that line goes, the more the disparity is. So that very profitable part in the center is their core downtown. Just to the east of that, there's a crescent of blue that runs through there. Those are the poorest neighborhoods of the community. Here's kind of a snapshot of what those look like. If we look at these neighborhoods, if we look at the core downtown of Lafayette, even though they are working at it, they are taking steps to make it better, it still doesn't pass the eye candy test. These neighborhoods look rough. When we look at that picture in the bottom right, that's a representative sample of those poorer neighborhoods. This place looks rough. It certainly is. When we were going there and going to get an Airbnb to do this work, the city staff told us, stay away from those neighborhoods. Don't go there. That's where the burglaries happen. That's where the homicides happen, like don't go to that neighborhood. From an eye test, it looks rough. From a numbers test, financially it's doing fantastic. It's doing really, really well. It's very profitable for the community. And just so we're all on the same page, our analysis assumes that the city is out there doing the work. The city is actually out there maintaining the ditches, maintaining the streets, taking care of all the stuff they've said they would take care of. They're clearly not doing that. And so the profit margin that we show in this map is actually greater, because they're not spending the money. What's all that stuff in red? Well, we understand what that is, right? That's the mall, the big box stores, the strip malls, the franchise drive-through restaurants, the gas stations, the windy, cul-de-sac streets, the three car garage with the attached house. That's all this stuff out on the edge. That's all this stuff that looks like prosperity. But when we run the numbers, what we see is that it's dramatically, dramatically in the negative. In North American cities today, except for the ones that have experienced large amounts of gentrification, what we see is a general trend, where the poorest neighborhoods subsidize the wealthiest neighborhoods. In the city of Lafayette, you have the median family paying $1,500 a year in taxes to the city. They will pay other taxes to the school district, and the parish, and what have you, but $1,500 to the city. In order for the city to take care of everything that has been built, to provide all the services that they've said they would provide, median taxes need to go from $1,500 a year to $9,200 a year. $1 out of every $5 a family makes need to get sent back to the city just to take care of what's already been built. That can't happen. And it will never, ever happen. And so this massive backlog of maintenance that the city is already struggling with, the tens of millions of dollars of roads that they don't know how to maintain, all this pipe that they have in the ground that they don't have the budget to fix, all the parks, and the buildings, and everything that they've said they would do, at some point in the future is going to become an acute crisis. And they're going to have to decide what road we let fall apart, what road we take care of, what pipe we repair and replace, with pipe we let fall apart, what neighborhood we continue to service, and what neighborhood we walk away from. Does this sound like a city we've all kind of thought about, at least a little bit? Of course, it does. It sounds like Detroit. As I travel around the country and I talk to cities about, and communities of people about their future, about the struggles that they have, about what we can do to make things better, we always tend to wind up discussing Detroit to one degree or another. Pretty much everybody has an explanation for what has happened in Detroit. If you're on one side of the political spectrum, you have a complete explanation. It's internally coherent. If you're on the other side of the political spectrum, you have a complete explanation for what happened in Detroit. It's politically coherent. Neither of these narratives overlap. And none of the other narratives about Detroit really overlap with each other, except in one key point. And it's the one key point that we seem to have almost universal agreement on. And that is this, my city is not Detroit. What happened in Detroit is different than what's happening in my city or any other city. Detroit is some kind of freakish anomaly. What happened there will not happen here. Here's the strong town's narrative of Detroit. In the early 1900s, before Henry Ford, before the automobile, Detroit was one of the richest cities, not just in North America, but in the entire world. This was a place of such grandeur and opulence, that you can go there today and see the magnificent buildings that still exist. You could take something like the Detroit Opera House and drop it into any cosmopolitan capital in Europe, and it would be right at home. This is an amazingly wealthy city. As the city was becoming the Motor City, as they began to experiment with the automobile, they were the first city to try this idea where people would live on the outskirts of town, drive in in the morning for work. At the end of the day, drive back out. They were the first city to run highways and cut up their neighborhoods in order to make that happen. They were the first ones to, at scale, rip out their transit system to start to tear down buildings and create parking, in order to facilitate this change. And when we hit the Great Depression and cities across North America started to go into bankruptcy, and have massive, massive fiscal distress, there was one city, and kind of a community of satellite cities around it, that comparatively did fairly well, that being, of course, Detroit. And by the time we got to the end of World War II, it was very clear to local leaders around the country what they needed to do if they wanted to experience growth and prosperity in this post-war country. They needed to copy the development pattern pioneered by our greatest city, that being Detroit. And that's what we did. We all copied Detroit. Detroit's not some crazy anomaly. It's not some strange, weird place. The people there are not any different than you and me. Detroit's just early. They're just a couple of decades ahead of everybody else. When you take a wealthy city and you spread it out over a huge area, denuding the tax base, while driving up the cost of providing service, you get the bankruptcy of Detroit. Like all bankruptcies, it happens gradually, then all at once. It's important to understand the fundamentals of what Detroit did, because it's is going to help us reconcile this whole Daniel Burnham insight of make no little plans with the idea of how we actually go about implementing and creating those plans. What Detroit did is they took a system that was fundamentally complex and changed it into one that was merely complicated. Let's talk about the difference between those. Complex adaptive systems-- we can think of things like rainforests. We understand that a rainforest is a collection of many different flora and fauna. They all act independently of each other. They all are able to receive feedback from their environment to adapt and change. We understand that the properties of a rainforest are emergent. You can't go out and plant a rainforest. You can't go out and create a rainforest. It's something that is the byproduct of an evolutionary emergent process. We can say the same exact thing about human habitat, the places that we built for thousands and thousands of years around the world. Very much like we understand that a bee and a beehive are co-evolved to exist together, they're co-evolved to meet the needs of each other, human habitat, the cities that we built, are the byproduct of thousands and thousands of years of trial and error experimentation. We tried things. The things that worked, we kept, we copied, we passed on. The things that didn't work, those ideas went away. Sometimes people died. Civilizations vanished. Those ideas weren't transmitted on. And so after thousands of years of this, you grow to have a system that is highly adaptable, very flexible, resilient, and strong. Complex adaptive systems differ from systems that are merely complex in fundamental ways. Primarily among them is the fragility. A Rube Goldberg machine is very complicated. We understand that it takes some really smart people to put one of these things together. But we also understand that if you go in and cut one of these strings or move one of these blocks, the machine doesn't evolve and adapt into something else, it just stops working. If we look at an automobile engine, and automobile engine takes some very intelligent people to put together. it's a very complicated machine. And in order run an automobile engine, it takes some very thoughtful, intelligent people. This is very complicated. But we understand that if we stress an automobile engine, if we push it past its limits, it doesn't evolve and become a toaster or a wash machine. It just breaks as an engine. The fundamental difference between systems that are complex and systems that are merely complicated is their fragility, their capacity to adapt and evolve to new conditions. When we look at the natural world, we can see this in stark relief. We understand that if a rainforest receives a little bit too much rain in one area, or a little bit too much sun, the rainforest doesn't collapse. It doesn't cease working. Different flora and fauna will adapt and take over. A slightly different pattern will emerge. But do the same thing to a cornfield. Give it a little bit too much sun or a little too much rain, it doesn't evolve and become soybeans. It just becomes bad corn. It just fails at what it's designed to do. This is the difference between habitat that is complex and adaptable, that is created incrementally over time, versus habitat that is built all at once to a finished state. When we look at human habitat over time, what we see is a complex pattern that is able to adapt to times that are good, times that are bad, times that are fast growth, times that are stagnant, times where we have a lot of surplus, times where we have want. When we look at our current development pattern, what we have is a monoculture, a style of development that is designed to be built all at once, to a finished state, to be done. We are the first civilization in all of human history to have the hubris to believe that what we build is a complete product. Only God has ever built something and said it is done. And all of a sudden, we come along and believe that we can build things that will never more change. This is not how human habitat is assembled. Human habitat, for all of human history, has been assembled incrementally over time. This is my hometown back in 1870. This is a very first iteration of my place. And the interesting thing to note about this little collection of pop-up shacks is that every city that was ever built in all of human history began in exactly this way-- some poor people, some pop-up shacks, some hopes, and some dreams. We built thousands of these places and a lot of them failed. What happens when a place like this fails? Not much, right? A few people salvage what they can. They move on to the next place. But we built thousands of places like this. And a lot of them were successful. And they were successful. They would grow in a very simple way. They would grow incrementally up, incrementally out, and become incrementally more intense. The little building blocks-- you can think of a culture growing in a Petri dish. More and more people moved to this place. The underlying land values would increase, creating this natural redevelopment pressure. So after 30 years of growing incrementally, this little street here would become this street. And after another 40 years of continuing to grow incrementally up, incrementally out, and become incrementally more intense, these little two and three story wood structures would evolve and adapt to become buildings of brick and granite. This is the way humans have constructed over time their habitat for thousands and thousands of years. This incremental, one step, and then the next step, and then the next step, this complex adaptive system, this ability to respond to both opportunities and stresses within the system to optimize many competing different things over time. After World War II, we began this new experimental approach, this idea that we could go out and make big plans and then execute on them, building things all at once to a finished state. And when we look at streets like this today, here's what this exact same street now looks like. It's a wasteland of parking and half occupied buildings. And understand that the community has invested in that little stretch of street that you're looking at there a half million in the public infrastructure. Where is the wealth that will sustain that, generation, after generation, after generation? It's just not there, it's not there. I believe in this idea of make no little plans. I think that we have to be an aspirational people. I think that we have to have grand visions of what the future can be. And I think we should dream big. But I think we have to temper today. Because we have the capacity to blow ourselves up. We have the capacity to utterly transform in grotesque and unrecognizable ways, before we've even been able to process the reaction to what we've done, the places that we live. So we have to temper our vision. We have to restrain our reach, to join the idea of make no little plans with a simple reminder to make no large leaps. We have to discipline ourselves to actually work incrementally as we're going about, to allow the humility of our vision, the humility of our actions to creep in and provide the feedback that we need, so that we can adapt our approach to actually achieve those grand visions. There's some things that our cities desperately need to do today to make this shift. We need to, first of all, take obsessive care of what we've already built. We have created, after World War II, a kinetic growth machine, the objective of which was to replicate a development pattern over, and over, and over, and over. We've long outstretched the capacity of that to do good to us. And it is now doing a lot of harm. We actually need to retool that machine, to focus on getting more value out of the things we've already built. A focus on maintenance, a focus on the very like unflattering, un-ribbon cutting, un-grand opening kind of just basic bread and butter stuff at the local level will unleash a wealth of opportunity for us, if we can discipline ourselves to do this. We have to make better use of the stuff we have already built. This is a little block in Peoria, Illinois. And I love this one, because you can find these places here in New York City. You can find them in eastern coast cities. As you go further west, they become lesser and lesser. You think of like very poor people trying to make good use of the things they built. Check out that little Gary Morris lawyer's office there in the middle. Here's what that building looks like. This is someone trying to squeeze a tiny bit of value out of like seven feet between two buildings. Here's the amazing thing. When we look at the financial productivity of the place, the Walmart in Peoria has a financial productivity of $598,000 an acre. The little Gary Morris law office, like six times that. It's a financial powerhouse. Why? Because it's making really good use of space. We can do this everywhere. We can go back and make really good use of space. We need to make our places worthy of care. I've become good friends with a guy named Steve Mazen. And as an engineer, as a planner, some of his ideas seemed really crazy to me. I'm going to give you one of them. He said, if we want places to be loved, and cared for, and taken care of, we have to make them lovable. They don't teach you that in engineering school, but it's absolutely true. We've come up with this idea that we can create things that are maintenance free. Maintenance free simply means it will never be maintained. If you build places that are easy to maintain, they're not going to be very lovable, and no one's going to spend the time or the energy to maintain them. We actually have to go back into our places now and make them worthy of our affection. We have to start responding to how people actually use the city. I'm here in Manhattan today, and it's fascinating to me, because in everything that you do here, you're actually leading the country in this. And I know sometimes it's frustrating to live here. Go out of this place and recognize that cities are completely ignoring the actual human experience of living in a place. We've created at Strong Towns a four step approach to make these kind of high returning investments. It's actually very, very simple. The first step, go out and humbly observe where people struggle. Go out with humility and walk with people, experience the city as they experience it, and observe where they're having a difficult time using the city as it's been built. Step number two, ask yourself a question. What is the next smallest thing that we can do right now to address that struggle? Not what is the grand solution, what's the thing that we can get the big grant for. It's what is the thing that we can do with duct tape, and paint, and cones, and straw bales, to make this struggle a little bit easier? Step number three, do that thing. Do it right now. Don't form a committee. Don't study it for six months. Don't bring in a consultant. This is a tiny little thing. Just go out and do it. Step number four, repeat that process, again, and again, and again. Our cities have oriented themselves up the government food chain. We positioned ourselves at the bottom of these capital flows. And we orient city hall, and we orient our community conversations around what's the big project we can get from Washington, DC? What's the thing that our state capital can deliver? What can we get from the municipal bond market? How can we get a big developer to come to town? We need to invert that mindset. And we need to focus with all intention and humility on the struggles that people have in our communities. If we do that, not only will we be prompted to make the lowest cost, highest returning investments that we can possibly make, but we will be improving the lives of our friends and neighbors as we do it. We need to stop subsidizing parking. I mean, for crying out loud, what are we doing? Why, when you build a residential building in New York, do you have to demonstrate that you have adequate parking? It's an insanity that I don't understand, here, of all places. But you can go around the country, and in places where it is mostly parking, the thing that they still obsess about is not having enough places to park. Our cities should not be worried about forcing people to walk a block or two. They should be worried about not being worthy of a one or two block walk. We need to make places that are so wonderful, and so beautiful, and so magnificent that they attract people to walk far more than that. We need to stop subsidizing parking, whether it's minimum parking requirements, or whether it's us taking our taxpayer money out and actually paying for it. I wanted to put this in here too, because I know in New York, and in some of our fast growing cities, we're having this housing crisis. It's important to note, and I'll just say this, there's two different housing crises going on in this country. The one here is one driven by a set of variables that are causing housing prices to go very high compared to what wages are. In other parts of the country, we have very low housing prices, but we don't have jobs. And so those houses are also unaffordable, but for a very different set of reasons and conditions. We sometimes treat them the same. And when we talk about housing crises, the media tends to originate from the areas where they're having the first kind of housing crisis, not the second kind. So the second kind is kind of elusive to us. A big part of the disconnect we have is when people hear that you can get a home in a city two hours from here for $40,000. And you have people who make that in a month. It's very difficult for people to process and understand, how do you have an affordable housing crisis? I want to step back amidst both of these things and have us recognize a couple of very simple truths about housing in this country, truths that should be evident to us in the post 2008 housing panic and re-inflation of the bubble. Who benefits from high housing prices? There's a long list of people who benefit from high housing prices, including governments at all levels, people who currently own houses, banks, insurance companies, everybody involved in the building and construction industries. Pension funds benefit from high housing prices. Do you remember the abject panic we had in 2008 when housing did this? Who doesn't benefit from high housing prices? It's a much smaller list, and it's a much smaller list of people who can be very easily not listened to and marginalized. When we look at our conversation about housing, it's very interesting, because we tend to want to deal with these symptoms of the housing problem. We're comfortable with things like rent controls, and a little bit of inclusionary housing over here, but we're really freaked out about allowing this complex, adaptive system to respond to the stresses and the pressures that we're feeling. At Strong Towns, this is a deep, deep conversation we're having. But I want to leave you with our one adage and our one insight. And that is this, no neighborhood should experience radical change. But no neighborhood should be exempt from change. When we see neighborhoods locked under glass, frozen in amber, the idea that it's built to a finished state and it should never evolve, what we see are neighborhoods that are, at their core essence, dysfunctional. But when we see neighborhoods that are razed completely, and transformed utterly overnight, displacing the people that are there, and disrespecting what is current mode of operation, we also see something that is deeply dysfunctional. Those are generally the only two choices on the menu today. We need a third choice. And that third choice has to be an incremental evolution of our neighborhoods. The complex, adaptive feedback that would allow single family homes to, with very little friction, become duplexes. Allow duplexes, with very little friction, to become four units. Allow some of the three and four story buildings, outside of our building here right now, to become 8 and 12 story buildings, without the huge amount of stress and friction that we have put into this system. We have to allow our housing market to have the complex, adaptive feedback that has made it strong in the first place. The reaction that I most commonly get, particularly from fast growing cities, is, Chuck, we can't work incrementally. We can't make no small leaps. We have to work in large leaps. Chuck, the world's on fire. There's a climate emergency. There's a housing emergency. There's public health emergencies. If we don't think big, if we don't act big, we will never accomplish anything. I don't agree with that. Because I look at places like this, and I understand that they started like this, and they went like this, and then there came this, and then ultimately became this place here. Every great place that we built that inspired Daniel Burnham made no little plans, but also took no large leaps. They were all built incrementally, one step at a time. Not with one great man laying out of vision and mobilizing people to do it, but with many, many, many common visions, joined together, interacting with each other in complex ways, to ultimately, over time, build places that were healthy, were adaptable, were productive, and were strong. That's what we should be working towards. Thank you so much for coming out and being here. [APPLAUSE] I really appreciate the invitation and the courtesy that you've extended to me. If anybody has something they would like to chat about, I know that they have asked that you go to a microphone, so you can be heard. And I would more than welcome taking a few minutes here to discuss. So please-- AUDIENCE: Hi, thank you for coming. That was a really cool talk. I might be biased because I live here in New York, but one thing I kept thinking about while you were talking was density, and how like a lot of the dysfunctional patterns you were discussing seem to me to correlate with low density. A, do you agree with that interpretation, or is that overly simplistic? And B, do you think it's possible to reverse this de-densification trend that we've had in this country? CHARLES MAROHN: The short answer is, A, yes, I think it's an oversimplification. Not because I think you're wrong, but I think you've got the correlation causation backward. A lot of times planners will look at density as an answer, and they'll go out and build things that are dense. You and I can travel around, and I can show you all kinds of things that are very dense, that don't have financial productivity, that they're not productive. And so what we like to talk about is density is well correlated with success, but it's not the cause. It's more of an outcome of success. So if you're going to key on something to drive success, it really is a ratio of private investment to public investment. You've got to have enough private investment to sustain your public investment. You can have a farm, and a farm can be a very productive way to build, but you can't have a farm with a million dollars of street, and sewer, and water, and stuff in front of it. It's going to be a farm with a well, and a septic tank, and a little gravel road. That's very productive. That works just fine. You wouldn't put a well out in front of this building. That would be absurd. You've got plenty of wealth here in Manhattan to sustain subways, and great transit, and streets and all that. So I think density is correlated. Can we reverse it? I think that the answer is maybe I'm beyond can we, in just recognizing the fact that it is happening whether we want it to or not. We can look at a place like Detroit, and what we see in Detroit is that you have a downtown now that is kind of becoming a boom town of more affluent people. You've got sometimes literal and sometimes figuratively gated communities, way out on the edge. But then in this middle area, you've got this kind of despair, where neighborhoods are being abandoned. Houses are literally like going away, burning down or falling down. But then you've got these neighborhoods starting to coalesce, where people are coming together, spontaneously working together to create neighborhoods and communities very much in what we would see in a traditional sense. If we look at it as a whole, the density is very low. If you start to look at these pockets that are aggregating, they're actually becoming dense again. They're becoming places again. And I think that that is one likely outcome that we will see as we struggle with this. Because we cannot maintain every cul-de-sac we built, every frontage road we built, every mall, every strip mall. A lot of this stuff is going to go away. And what will result is a pattern that is more productive. AUDIENCE: Thanks. CHARLES MAROHN: Thank you so much. Please-- AUDIENCE: Hi thanks a lot for that really interesting talk. I'm curious if-- I think you mentioned earlier in your talk, that it was something like, other than cities that have gone through gentrification process. CHARLES MAROHN: Yeah. AUDIENCE: I was wondering if any in one of those maps of capital going in or going out, how someplace like New York looks nowadays. CHARLES MAROHN: We've never modeled New York. The data is not-- it's not been available in the way that some other places have. New York would be off the map. I mean we've seen places like this. I think it's important to understand the point on gentrification. Because some of those cities are highly gentrified that we showed and some aren't. But you see the same pattern, whether it's blighted. You see the same pattern, whether it's occupied by wealthy people or poor people. The most productive land is geographic based, not income based. But let me say this, and I'm going to say this, it's going to sound a little coarse. Be generous with me in your interpretation. If we go back in time and we look at cities, cities used to be wealthy people surrounded by poor people. That's what a city was. Think of a castle. You were inside the castle walls, and you were connected, and if you were outside, you were kind of left to fend for yourself. In the United States, after World War II, we decided that cities would become poor people surrounded by wealthy people. I think that was horrible public policy for many, many reasons. But we put trillions of dollars into making that happen. As those support systems start to go away, what we see is that American cities are starting to, again, become wealthy people surrounded by poor people. That is the most despotic outcome that can possibly happen. Because if you look at cities of the '50s and '60s, and this decline we had, people trapped in those places struggled. And this was not a kind thing to do. Yet they struggled within neighborhoods that were coherent, places where you could get groceries, and get a job, and get on a bus, and get somewhere. Today we are trapping people in suburbs that A, are falling apart, B, don't have that kind of basic life infrastructure, and C, just have a really high, high burn rate, financially and energy wise, in order to live there, which the poorest people in our communities don't have. So the pattern is going to look the same, whether the community is poor or wealthy. The height will be different. Like a like a New York is going to have a big, huge spike, because it's a very wealthy place. A little town in North Carolina is going to have the same general layout to their model, but it will be at much, much lower rates, because it's a poorer place. I think that the challenge we have is not, in a sense, making the outskirts wealthier , because that would be a really crazy development pattern, but finding a place in those communities that are going through that gentrification pressure, to switch from an all at once development pattern, which has dislocation with it, to an incremental development pattern that brings people with and shares that wealth and a broader distribution. Does that make sense? AUDIENCE: Yeah, it would be interesting to hear ideas for those policies. CHARLES MAROHN: I'll give you one that I think is a really good model. And I'm embarrassed to go around sometimes because I'm from Minnesota, where we don't like to talk about ourselves. But I'll toot our horn a little bit. I think Minneapolis has what, today, is like the best policy for urban development in terms of how they're dealing with single family homes. If you have a single family home in Minneapolis, and the ordinance will be finalized in December, there is no friction for you to turn it into a triplex. Imagine tripling the capacity of housing stock in the neighborhoods of Minneapolis. It's a huge boom. And I think we'll be great for people who prior would have been just gentrified out. Please. AUDIENCE: Hi, so thanks again for your talk. I feel like I learned a lot. But I came into the talk with having thought a lot about the influence of cars on society. And in the first half your talk, when you were talking a lot about how there is this major shift around the time of the Great Depression, and then after World War II, to me, that seemed like it was very, well not coincidental, but it could seem coincidental or very causal, that when cars became affordable and cheap, and then the government started subsidizing the infrastructure for the cars, that's when this like build all at once mentality became popular, and the densification went way down. And so I'm wondering how much you agree with this and maybe how you would approach it from a policy perspective, how much the regulation of cars and of car infrastructure would make a difference. CHARLES MAROHN: Again, I get where you're at. I think a little bit with the density question, it's a cause-effect kind of thing. The idea is that cars have caused this development pattern. And the reality is we can go to other parts of the globe, where they have cars, and they don't have this development pattern. So it's not clear to me that cars caused it. What we did with cars is we used the automobile to accelerate this growth strategy we had. But even in your beautiful city here, until very, very recently, you decided that the best thing that you could do would be to turn over the public realm to fast moving automobiles. And you still struggle to kind of walk back from that. It didn't change the overall density or layout. It just made it a little more miserable and treacherous to live in. The fact that you've started to switch it now has made the place more delightful, and more inviting, and more welcoming for the humans who live here, but it didn't really affect the development densities, in a sense. I think that we-- let me just summarize. I don't think the automobile is our problem. And I don't have any problems with the automobile. I do think that we have created this very strange paradigm, where, in most of America, the automobile is used for trips of two blocks. You all of the sudden have created a thing where you cannot walk to a place or cannot get somewhere without driving. We've essentially gone from automobile as liberation to the automobile as like mandated prosthetic in 90% of the built habitat we've created in the US. You won't find that any other place in the world, even where they have high automobile usage rates. So we have some deep dysfunction, but I think it's more of an urban design than it is actually driving the underlying problem. The underlying problem is one of finance, more than the actual automobile. The fact of how we finance , things how we build them all at once to a finished state has become the huge problem that we're struggling with. Are we done? OK, I apologize for not being able to get to everything else. Again, thank you. I really, really appreciate the opportunity to be here. MODERATOR: Give a big round of applause to Charles Marohn. [APPLAUSE]
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Channel: Talks at Google
Views: 35,662
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Keywords: talks at google, ted talks, inspirational talks, educational talks, strong towns, charles marohn, financial stability, community prosperity, thriving communities, neighborhoods
Id: Em7nqDqQ8oM
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Length: 54min 31sec (3271 seconds)
Published: Wed Nov 27 2019
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