Stephen Kotkin on Lost in Translation: World Order & Word Order | HISPBC Ch.1

they gave me the coveted slot follow the Secretary of State on the same subject everybody wanted that slot but I got that slot so that's really a privilege and I'm grateful forever for that uh do we have time for questions yeah exactly yeah you having a good session so far pretty cool this Hoover institution after waiting for 33 years at Princeton I finally got here myself yes no joke all right let's see what we're going to talk about with you today I'm going to try for five bullet points actually we'll do four bullet points uh because um I tend not to be as brief as necessary one will be uh the terms on which we debate the terms of debate the second will be on reality over wishful thinking I know it's hard to get to reality over wishful thinking but we're going to do our best the third is going to be about choosing your history wisely and the fourth is going to be called do not become like them okay so let's start with the first one the terms of debate if you accept the terms of debate that are imposed on you you have a hard time winning those debates one of the most important things in any analytical exercise is to try yourself to define the terms of debate not to accept what's imposed on you let's take a a couple of terms that are really widespread and let's see what kind of rubbish they are Global South Global South is a ubiquitous term how many people live in the global South geographically go ahead go ahead how many people live in the global South geographically that's right 8 50 million people 12% of the world population lives south of the Equator 12% 88% live north of the equator the global salt is a fiction one of the most important countries of the global South is that's right Australia yes South Africa most of Brazil Indonesia but the global South is not in the global South that would seem to be a big problem and then you say oh okay no problem it's not really a geographical term okay well why are you using a geographical term if it's not a geographical term it's really about solidarity in the non-aligned movement I say okay that's cool I'm good with that I know my history what type of solidarity does Iran have for example with oh let's say Australia not very much right so where's the solidarity issue the solidarity is also a fiction remember the bondon conference in 1955 I know some of you were young you weren't there well the bondon conference in 1955 the great opening Conference of the so-called non-aligned movement it failed it failed there was no non-aligned movement because they had clashing State interests they disagreed the solidarity of the global South is I call something that doesn't exist the global South and I assign myself the right to speak on their behalf and then it's 4 billion or 6 billion or whatever it'll be yes China's in the north yes India is in the north that's very inconvenient right do you think that the African countries want South Africa to represent them go ask them they have no desire to allow South Africa to represent them at Global forums that's your Global South solidarity right so just be careful about accepting terms that are invented for political purposes and then people appoint themselves the spokesperson of those terms right as if everyone in the term now thinks alike and I get to speak for them we could do the entire day I could ruin the program of our leadership by going through every single category that we use let's take another one multi-polar world H that's so fabulous who could be against the multi-polar world right no one country should be in charge it should be a multi-polar world right isn't that better okay what do the Chinese and the Russians mean when they say mult molar world do they mean that everybody gets to choose and it's a free and open non-h hierarchical sphere of influence where you can be Sovereign or do they mean that small countries don't have sovereignty especially if they're in their neighborhood and their poll is going to be controlled by them and it's going to be coercive and so when we talk about multi-polar world they have a different understanding of what a poll is from what we do so when we say multipole polar World in a positive sense and we align with that category we're doing the bidding of Russian and Chinese propaganda unwittingly we could go as I said we could keep going this is just my first point Asian values you know that one Asian values that's another Beauty oh you know you westerners trying to impose yourselves on us we have our own values Asian values and get used to it the West is not dominant anymore I say okay Asian values I'm good with Asian values you mean Japan cuz I align really well with the values and institutions in Japan do you mean South Korea do you mean Taiwan no that's not what they mean by Asian values what they mean by Asian values is once again something that's invented that's not shared across Asia all right you get the point right we don't do rubbish categories we refuse those terms of the debate for us we're going to redefine the terms they're going to be empirical and they're going to align with reality and we're going to be able to win the debate as a result of that you never say to a person when they they tell you something I disagree I have my own opinion H you know you you hold to your opinion I hold to my my opinion right this is not the English Department okay what you say is what's the evidence for that what's the evidence for that you don't like what I'm saying what's the evidence for that that's your question the more you can talk about evidence the more you can talk about evidence-based analysis the stronger you're going to be as analysts okay so the terms of the debate and getting on to evidence we won't do the Asian Century although you know what the Asian Century it's real that's the one that's real but the Asian century is happening in the United States that's right that's where the Asian century is happening because the majority of immigrants now are South Asian and East Asian and they're in our universities they run our labs they open established companies they serve in government and it's astonishing how the Asian century is working but it's working here because we have a free and open Society okay let's let that point number one go let's move on to point number two about the reality beating wishful thinking you still with me all right so the world order is pretty simple it's got two approaches one approach is one worldism we're all in this together we're all part of one world and we have the United Nations really important institution right that comes from President Roosevelt's and his administration's vision of how the post-war order should be organized they cheated a little bit they hedged you would call it hedged I would call it cheating they use the UN Security Council to have permanent members with a veto so we're all in this together we're all Sovereign we're all part of the UN but five of us are more equal than others right okay and one of those is China because Roosevelt the genius that he was promoted China into the ranks of veto powers in 1945 beginning the tradition of America deciding that it was not going to understand China but was going to promote it into a global role so that it could do what it wanted okay now at the time it was Taiwan but then we fixed that we did that okay so the UN the one worldism we're all in this together with the little hedge of the security Council that's one version of organizing the world the other version came out of the same time period the same Administration the same people and it's called the West what is the West the West is not a geographical term here we go they're using a geographical term when it's not geographical right they're cheating us again the West is an Institutional and values understanding so for example Russia is European but not Western its institutions are not Western Japan is not European but it's Western it has western style institutions and western style values so the West is a club A an open club that others can join which is non-geographical but we use the term West which is very confusing to people we need a better term our better terms were things like the Free World the first world I'm good with those terms I'm good with whatever terms we want because it's the reality that I'm interested in and so I have this fabulous thing I have North America I have Europe and I have the first island chain in East Asia which would include Japan South Korea Taiwan all the way down to Australia that's my West so the those are the two organizing principles of the world the club based on certain types of Institutions and and the We're All in This Together the one worldism the Western thing was really powerful because having friends who are rich and smart and open like you are have this very similar political and economic and social systems having friends like that is a good thing you got some good friends go get more good friends and this system allows you to go get more good friends not everyone is a beneficiary some people are on the receiving end the system is not always fair but the system is open flexible and based on shared values and institutions and it's extremely powerful and it's led by a country that is powerful in every domain but that country can't impose its will on its friends it has to negotiate with them okay so you got the the one worldism and the west and then 1991 happens oh I forgot OPEC thank you for reminding me OPEC OPEC is the non-aligned movement that actually works OPEC is Mother Nature 300 million years ago layering in to the Earth certain geological facts which we know is oil and OPEC forming a cartel that exercises power power in a world where they are not part of the West nor are they not aligned in that Bond sense but they instead Flex their muscles because of the power of oil now it's OPEC plus because it includes Russia the Soviet Union was its own Energy System as you know okay thank you for the OPEC thing so OPEC isn't very important interesting uh other piece of the two approaches to world the order right one the United Nations the other the West so after 1991 we decide in the United States that we're going to do the United Nations version and give up the West version we're going to as Anthony Lake gave a speech you remember Anthony Lake he was the National Security advisor for Bill Clinton you remember Bill Clinton he was this sloppy guy from Arkansas that ate pizza late at night in the White House and did other things you guys don't remember that maybe you're too young again the blessings of Youth right sadly we remember that okay so here we are it's 1993 and Tony Lake who's the National Security adviser one of you will be that one day I'm sure Tony Lake National Security advisor gives a speech at John's Hopkins in DC called from containment to enlargement it's a 15-page speech everyone in this room who aspires to understanding International order the global system wants to be Secretary of State should read that speech many many times it's easily available I read it again this morning what did he say from enlarge from containment to enlargement the whole world was now going to be enlarged in the sense that the US was going to spread its system across everything not just bet on the west but everybody was going to become part of a one world system but a one world system based on Western values it was a grandiose Grand idea and it's the organizing principle of our political establishment across Republican and Democratic administrations just like containment was during the Cold War enlargement sometimes known as engagement that's what you been living that's why we're in the situation we're in today you got the speech from enlarg from containment to enlargement who wrote the speech Tony blinken wrote the speech Tony blinkin who gave a national security speech in this room not that long ago that you missed Tony blinkin the speech writer is now Secretary of State which proves once again that anything is possible right I would have never believed that but what ever this is America America the indigenous American berserk Philip Roth the indigenous American berserk we didn't just get crazy recently this is us it's just we have social media now okay so Blake uh Lake delivers a speech that blinkin wrote I could have called him Blake but that's another guy um anyway and so the speech is all about how we're going to redo the world and we end up in Iraq we end up in Afghanistan we end up in China we end up everywhere we're democratizing we're transforming we're enlarging we're engaging okay all so betting on the west what happens the Putin guy does the thing in Ukraine and it turns out it's about the West it turns out it's about the transatlanticism it turns out it's about Germany and the European Union and Canada and it turns out it's about Japan and South Korea and Taiwan and oh yeah that's what's powerful those are our friends that's how the world works that's what you bet on okay you're going to have the Africa story right after mine and so I'm not going to weigh into that territory you got an experts going to talk about Africa you'll notice right this is typical Hoover identity politics we got accomplished uh black woman gives the opening speech we got an accomplished black woman gives the third speech and so they got to do identity politics and find some white guy to balance to balance in between the two accomplished black women speakers but whatever that's just the Hoover institution on our identity politics okay so yeah so the West is a really good idea and when it's open when there's opportunity when there's opportunity at home and opportunity abroad the system works that's how Freedom was enlarged until we got onto the enlargement thing which diminished Freedom okay Point number three so reality wishful thinking that was Point number two in case you missed it now we're on to point number three what did I say Point number three was going to be choose your history wisely there's two form forms of power in the world and they're very very different and one form of power is landbased Eurasian Empire and that form of power looks like this autocratic government sometimes even tyranny looks like extortion instead of trade looks like a big land Army looks like threatening its neighbors because it's un land and it's exposed and that kind of power that version of land power is the dominant version of power throughout history but then there's another kind of power which Rises late in the game early for you guys because it's before you're born but late in the game in terms of historical Tendencies and that's Maritime power which is about limited government it's about trade it's about Navy it's about enlarging the pie it's about win-win it's about Open Access Open Seas and open everything if possible right and that form of power it actually starts with the Spanish the Spanish Empire remember the Sun never sets on the British Empire that was Spain they had that first the British stole that this British stole a lot of things but they stole that so Spain it didn't work because they had the autocratic not the limited government and Along come the Dutch and the Dutch do this better and the Netherlands in the 17th century are an unbelievable story of Maritime power tiny little country underwater the the country is underwater it's below sea level in many places and yet it invents modern Commerce for the most part the British come along and they're looking at the Dutch and they say this is a good racket they have here let's get in on this and the British do an even better version the British are a little bit better than the Dutch and the British end up forming the world in which we live which is a world based upon Maritime power limited government trade and the Navy where openness and access is the story rather than close defensiveness land Army land borders British don't really have a land Army you need a land Army go partner with one of those Eurasian land Empires go to war with them and and use them as your land Army right that's how you keep cost low including um human costs okay so the United States begins as you know as a as a land power a land Empire Crossing this gigantic continent right if you've read the um himal the recent himalion book on uh the survival of the Native American Empires right indigenous empires in America it's rewrite the history of America for you it's one of the great books that I've WR I read a lot of books more than 120 books a year on average and that's the best book I've read in the last couple of years maybe in the last decade but anyway there's a story of America which we know poorly moving across the land Empire and creating a kind of land story but it then discovers that it's in in in this cool place it discovers that it's it's got an ocean on the Atlantic on one side the Pacific now on the other CU they reached all the way through and pushed the Russians out of that Russian River so that we could have Bohemian growth and and then it's got these nice people Canada which we invaded but it didn't work so we didn't do that again and then it's got Mexico where um we weren't as nice and we're still not as nice but it's really important for us because our economies are fully integrated and they're no threat to us militarily and so we got this springboard and we decide we're going to do the British thing not only we're going to do the British thing but the British are going to get out of our way sure the British voluntarily you know seeded power to the Americans like always happens voluntar seating of power as you'll see right never happens but anyway occasionally happens so the the Americans decide they're going to do the British thing and they're better than the British at doing it and they create this massive successful version of modern power based upon limited government trade and the Navy and a really big a global Navy just like the British had but undergirded by a bigger economy and so if you're an old Eurasian land and Empire you're a great civilization you're Iran or you're Russia or you're China you're like when did this happen here we are we're Millennium old we're two Millennia old we're five Millennia old if you believe Chinese propaganda who are these guys who just got started the other day in 1770 something and and now they're telling us how the world should work and they're organizing a lot of friends and alliances and they surround us and and they even borrow our army when they want to defeat one of the other armies we'll borrow that Russian army when we want to defeat the German one or yeah so huh when did that happen and that's not fair and that's not good and so you get the land Empires resisting this and they're afraid of this it's not American policy that scares them it's American existence that's an existential threat to them we could enlarge or not enlarge we could have smart policy or we could have the policy we have it doesn't matter it's our very existence that threatens their existence because our form of power is more successful in the competition than their form of power okay just like the Spain got pushed out of the way by the the Dutch and the British and then we pushed the British out of the way but then we incorporated everybody all of our previous competitors are now our friends and our allies and our partners that's a really great system if you can do that okay is the system Fair no does the system make mistakes oh yeah it makes nothing but mistakes does the system commit atrocities oh yeah I've been to Vietnam I've been to lots of places around the world okay so we're not talking about something which is ideal we're talking about reality and just something that's stronger so if you're competing against this you're going to have a hard time you got to you you got to have better trade you got to have better Navy you got to better governance because if your governance isn't as good your people might want the other side's governance oh boy right I mean listen we'll trade with you but keep those ideas out of here right we got to censor the public sphere we got to control we got to survive as an autocracy because we have history we're a civilization we're Millennia old and you're an upstar so that's the world we live in that's it that's the modern world and it should be better it should be fairer it should be more open than it is there should be more opportunity rather than less opportunity the Asian century is happening in the United States what about the African Century that should also happen in the United States but even more importantly inside Europe they're desperate for all the talent that's being born and coming on on board in Africa okay Point number four and we'll close this out remember Point number four do not become like them do not become like them you think you know you got to compete against these autocracies and they have censorship they have control they got industrial policy they got all sorts of stuff these tools that you you don't normally use do not become like them that's George Kennan of all the stuff George Kennan wrote the most important thing he wrote in that Infamous article that no one reads anymore about uh that launch containment about the the way we should oppose the Soviet Union's power in the world don't be like them do not become like them do not act like them was his most important advice so people say oh you know we're not in a cold war and we don't want to be in a cold war with China that would be terrible a cold war is not a misunderstanding it's a fundamental Clash of interests and values that's the first thing they say well but China is so different from from the Soviet Union it's crazy to think we're going to do a cold war with China when it's so different from I say yeah exactly so the pipian war the Seven Years War the 30 Years War World War I World War II the Congo War the Korean War the Vietnam War they were all the same right they're all identical they got identical weapons they got identical systems identical countries that's why we call them all regular Wars hot Wars but the cold war because there are some differences between trying to oh no no no no that's it can't use the Cold War again sure Hot War everything's a war but cold war no no that would be that'd be wrong that'd be incorrect I say okay that's an interesting proposition you put in front of me and then I say well okay you don't like Cold War what are your Alternatives what are you going to do instead what are the alternatives to Cold War CU we live in the real world it may seem we don't live in the real world here at Stanford it may feel like we don't live in the real world here at Stanford what are the alternatives to Cold War well hot War hot war is the most important alternative to Cold War you like hot War I don't like hot War 55 million people died in World War II which was a multiple of world war I's deaths what's World War III going to look like a multiple of 55 million I don't want to go anywhere near that so if cold war is an alternative to Hot War sign me up what are the other Alternatives capitulation capitulation is always an alternative right most of our political class capitulation is their way of life capitulation is no good for me I got to live on the planet with China I got to share the planet with China but on what terms am I going to share the planet with China what are the terms of sharing don't tell me you got to share the planet I know the ocean is wet I know that already but what are the terms of sharing the planet so I don't want capitulation I don't want hot War what else do I have run through the list of things I got pigmon I got pigmon you know what pigmon is do they still teach ID's metamorphosis in school when they got the statue and it's it's Stone it's hard it's a sculpture and it comes to life and and the person marries the statue and then George Bernard Shaw did a version of this in 1913 you may know that one where Eliza ditt this Eliza ditt woman is kind of from the streets and bad accent is unrefined and so this guy says you know we're going to transform her into a lady we're going to engage China and transform Eliza dittle from a street person with a cockney accent into some refined yes we're going to do that again and again and again so pigmon that's the other option so those are your options Hot War capitulation pigmon when you're in a competition of great Powers if they don't capitulate because you defeat them in war let's call that Germany and Japan if they don't knuckle under and capitulate and decide that it's okay they're going to be occupied by you and be transformed then Cold War looks like by far the best option on the table but in competing with them competition is okay we're not afraid of competition we're not afraid of geopolitical rivalry rivalry between great Powers that's just life that's just history that's not earth shattering we'll have a competition with China okay we've done that many times before many other states have done that many times before all right in conclusion just don't become like them in competing with them because the more you become like them the less free you are the less open you are the more you're closing things down and censoring things and forbidding things and stopping trade and the more you're being like them the weaker you're making yourself but they're afraid of you because of those strengths that you have those attributes that you have so when when they have a confucious Institute at Stanford and they're using it for surveillance on Chinese students and they're using it for maybe other things you say oh we got to close this thing down say what this is America we don't close it down you open a free confucious Institute across the street and you say we love confucious we're pro-china and you want to come Communist party members also Welcome to our confucious Institute across the street stre that's how you win these things do not become like them okay thank you for your [Applause] [Music] attention

Channel: Hoover Institution

Views: 130,705

Keywords: Hoover Institution, Condoleezza Rice, HR McMaster, Jim Mattis, Victor Davis Hanson, Steve Kotkin, Foreign Policy, International Relations, World Order, United Nations, Geopolitics, Multipolar World, Global South, China, United States, Western Institutions, Western Values, Diplomacy, Foreign Trade, Containment, USSR, Stalin, Mao, Leadership, World Trade Organization, Russia, Ukraine, Identity Politics, Open vs. Closed Societies, Tony Lake Speech, Putin, Xi Jinping, AI, Asian Century

Id: oevcTSV0tO8

Length: 33min 49sec (2029 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 09 2024