Stöferle: Tremendous Value in Gold, Uranium Just Getting Started

[Music] all right let's do this in english all right welcome everybody sf live on site we're in beaver creek we're at the precious metal summit and i'm joined by a good friend roni sturfella and lonnie it's good to see you again it's been almost two years since we last saw each other yeah i think in november it would have been two years i told i met a friend before and i said it feels so good just shaking hands now it feels like as it as if it was illegal yeah it's something so big so nice so no it's really good it's my first real conference in ages that's yeah it's great it's like we're social animals right like we are like and it comes out of this it just feels good yeah it's good for the soul yeah because in the in our industry most of it is people of course you have the assets but connecting and everybody experienced this this zoom fatigue and you know that's yeah as i've said it's it's great to be back and i hope that in one year from now um this whole covert thing is mostly over because i have to tell you coming over from europe that was that was quite quite demanding with all the paperwork involved it felt like organizing a big expedition to the antarctica or whatever yeah now you're a person of national interest to the us that's why you're allowed here i saw you your tweet the other day biden signed it personally yeah yeah no it's it's mind-blowing actually like that's not possible at least canada opened their borders recently so that's possible but it's good it's like it's very quiet i've seen like way quieter i was here two years ago i think that was the busiest i've ever seen it and this is the complete opposite yeah it was really good too as well because i already had some really good conversations i'm sure you have the same um you're here as a keynote speaker as well what are you presenting on um well the title of my keynote is um the monetary tipping point so i'll talk about inflation and what changed and why basically the the inflationary drivers are now stronger than the deflationary drivers um that's gonna be the key and then i'll talk about commodities about gold about mining stocks so yeah yeah okay mining stocks obviously we have to sf live we are focused heavily on it let's start there um what's your sweet spot like you run a fund the incremental fund as well there there's a gold aspect gold mining aspect to it what what are you looking at and what kind of meetings are you taking here in beaver creek well actually we run five funds so we've got uh you know a couple of funds that combine gold uh physical gold with uh with bitcoin we've got a strategy that combines mining stocks uh with cryptocurrencies other cryptocurrencies besides bitcoin uh and silver for example uh then we've got a um basically an absolute return product so we've got lots of different funds but in the funds that that i'm managing where we're investing in mining equities um i think now at the moment you don't have to go down into the you know into the junior space to find tremendous upside um i had like a couple of meetings already and and i will have at this conference and then we'll go to roughly 70 or 80 meetings and so far my impression is really good there's deep value in this industry now so you know companies producing record amounts of free cash flow they're increasing the dividends they're paying buying back shares um they've got the cost structure under control we've we're seeing pristine balance sheets so it's i think that that the general setup is fantastic and if you comp compare it to the last cycle um now the huy that the gold box index is trading at 250 uh in the last cycle when gold was trading at the same level like roughly 1800 uh the huy is at was it i think 550. so so i think at some point the market will realize that there's tremendous value in this sector but i don't know how long it's going to take at the moment it's clearly frustrating oh very yeah very much so but the barrick dividend yield of 4.8 percent nothing this quarter which is insane yeah p e ratio is of 2.5 like i think it was us chatting about it yesterday as well almost school they all have like extremely low p e ratios they're insane you can't compare it and uh how are you loading up so how are you playing you like you can't buy everybody do you have original focus like obviously gold focus but like what are you looking for what's your kicker it's basically um i would say the investment process is based on our incremental inflation signal so this basically tells us um where we see inflation going forward and it's it has been basically um after the whole covet crisis in in spring it flipped pretty quickly to a very very strong inflationary uh signal so we went into offense and as you know offense wins games but defense wins championships so for us it's important to really protect the downside uh and that's what the the inflation signal perfectly did so now we're playing offense um the inflation signal is now only at 50 again so we're slightly more defensive we've got a higher allocation in the in the large caps um we've got um some some royalties and streamers um we've got some developer uh names so so i think you know it's it's like the buffett saying um feeling like a a little kid in a candy store yeah there's lots of great opportunities out there i think now is the time to do your homework um to start investing um to to recalibrate and and just confirm um that the views that you have that's that's why i'm here for i'm meeting most of the the companies that we are already invested in i'm having lots of ideas at the moment so i'm i'm meeting new companies so for me it's exciting it's really exciting yeah let's zoom out a little bit you said to confirm your views and invest based on your views what are your views more on the gold side now you mentioned inflationary cycle of course like where do you see things headed and let's put the current trading environment or the gold price environment a bit into perspective we've seen a bit of a run-up in gold but then again yesterday yesterday meaning tuesday was taking right um gold sold off big time again a big time 30 right but it i can't make rhyme a reason of it maybe you can help me understand what is going on right now and put some custom context around it well it's hard to understand gold at the moment um it's it's as hard as understanding women you know and i've got i've got a wife and three daughters so sometimes i think i i don't understand how you're acting and how you behave um but that's that makes it interesting and with gold i think it's if we take a step back you know gold was up 25 last year i think gold basically discounted very very quickly and it gold understood and it sniffed out that we'll we'll see enormous fiscal stimulus enormous um monetary stimulus that will see basically all taboos are being broken and that inflation momentum will start rising again so i think gold um discounted it pretty quickly and we always said it's first gold then silver starts moving and then it's the broad commodity complex and at the very end of the commodity space um it is the agricultural commodities so so i think that game plan worked out pretty well now 25 in one year is not that bad year to date 2021 gold is down four percent in us dollar terms in euro terms it's down i think two percent so it's actually not that bad um kai i have to tell you i i over over coffee uh here at the conference and i would say people here are i don't like the term goldbach but i think people here really like gold yeah and they like hearing very high price targets but i just over over coffee with some people in this industry i said well i can see gold easily moving to new all-time highs in the next couple of months and everybody shook his head and said no no way so if people in this industry that really have a conviction are already that that pessimistic that's a strong sign yeah that's a very very strong sign from my point of view and at the moment really nobody cares about gold nobody cares and you know for me you know i often ask i've asked myself the question when will i get nervous about about gold and i think the the cleanest answer is as soon as real rates turn positive so if we say if we see real rates at three or four percent positive positive yeah then it's time to say goodbye or at least lower your allocation well in the eurozone we're at negative four percent or something right it's like in that range just no it's basically impossible it's impossible to to see positive real rates so so i think this is basically the foundation for this bull market and that makes me pretty relaxed and and then there's some some factors that i gonna talk about in my in my keynote it's it's for example stuff like you know huge uh physical deliveries at comics uh stuff like you know central bank buying we we saw thailand we saw hungary we saw brazil uh recently buying uh uh uh big amounts and then there's uh palantir i mean that's probably their clients are mostly government agencies and and and and i think it's one of the best connected and informed companies they announced that they're buying 50 million in physical gold um to hedge against black swans so i don't know what they see coming so so i think it's it's not not everything is negative but um to answer your question sometimes i really don't understand gold yeah welcome to the club yeah it is very puzzling but palantir is actually a good fact like i've seen a couple tweets about it but it didn't really make the rounds like yeah like you mentioned i'm glad you're bringing it up but i've seen it on twitter a few posts linked in a couple but not it wasn't that that moment you waited for like breaking the seal on something that could have been a trigger for maybe a bit more momentum it wasn't that i think you know what are the biggest opportunity calls for gold it's obviously the equity market and it's the crypto market um and i think that you know as as soon as as this you know this this party contin as long as this party continues in equity markets um i think gold will will will have a hard time and and also clearly crypto i mean we're really open to crypto but it's it's just stealing attention and it's of course you know that the the chart looks much better and you know um it's for for a journalist it's just it's just you know to to to create clicks it's just more convenient it's just smarter to write about bitcoin than about gold that nobody really cares about at the moment yeah and we're fighting the performance of the main markets as well like gdix i i think i compared it the other day gdx is down 30 the s p's up 30 year to date yeah like there's no way like as a generalist it's a no-brainer to invest in the main markets why would you go into the risk sector like gdx even which has the bigger companies in our sector in it well to some degree i think it was summer 2019 i thought okay this is it now the generalists are coming in that was the point in time when uh when berkshire headaway announced that they're buying very gold and i thought well okay this is really gonna move the needle this is gonna make a big change uh for the industry but then they sold it pretty quickly so it was just a trade for buffett um so so i don't really see generalists coming in most of the funds they don't have any inflows so it's tough that's tough even the mining funds some of them have outflows right now and they're fighting that's why i think the summer has been so weak in the in the mining stocks as well have you heard any of those rumors like officially nobody ever puts a press release out saying we have to liquidate 30 million dollars of junior mining stocks but no it's definitely happening here and and then you've got in in fall you've got taxless lease taxes season coming in so um it's it's tough but but really if you step if you take a step back for gold trading at 1800 everybody is is super negative um i think sentiment wise but also uh when it comes to the commitment of traders report i think that improved dramatically and i i think from a macro point of view um i just don't see real rates rising significantly um so so perhaps it's it's really one of them few contrarian plays at the moment yeah even uranium is running now yeah so that's not contrarian anymore no and i you know we're running one uranium fund and and we almost closed it down thank god we we didn't so it's doing extremely well um but i think kevin muir the the writer of uh macro tourist which is one of my very favorite newsletters he wrote about the series of rolling bubbles um and i think that's that's what's happening it's like um i think we're seeing those those large moves yeah for a very very short time we saw it with with lumber for example we saw it with uranium we saw it with with some base metals now we're seeing it with with coal for example so it that that's a really interesting development i don't i don't know if it's because there's much more retail money uh involved at the moment perhaps but yeah yeah let's stay on uranium for a second you mentioned rolling bubble sounds like a bubble is already over but uranium's risen like 33 yeah like in the last three months yeah right we're at over 40 dollars a pound right now i've checked this morning but last time was over 40 dollars so um how would you play that sector there's very few quality names like on the mining side like how do you position yourself do you just buy the sprott etf that that's buying everything up right now no i have to say um i'm not the fund manager that's that's uh christian sharer but but he's mostly buying you know the quality names and there's not so many you can think of five so you don't have to go uh down to the to the junior space in the uranium um market i think there is some some really interesting companies out there but from uh from a supply demand view it's it's a it's a very simple story uranium and and honestly we haven't we haven't had a hard time you know talking about that because um people that don't have any clue about energy markets they think well uranium you're investing in uranium so so um you you like fukushima and chernobyl and and you support nuclear bombs or what no not really yeah um have a look at the facts yeah so so so for us that's that's that's a huge success and and i'm very happy uh for for christian um but i think of course that the sprott etf made a made a big change a big change short term perhaps it's a bit overbought yeah definitely um but i think you know still at 40 40 bucks many of the companies don't really make any money yeah so so they need something around 50 55 to really sustainably make money so i think it's it's it's a great great spot but it's a it's a niche that's a niche topic it's a small market yeah like sprout is buying up the physical market so it depends on who you believe but it seems like the supply side is pretty much empty right now so that's because they here at the kazakhstan tom promised it properly is also buying physical buying up the market from from the spot market so which is quite interesting ronnie thank you so much for joining us thank you it was great catching up with you in person likewise it's good to see you again and you'll be joining us in november in frankfurt yes so yes keep our fingers crossed yes this will still happen and uh can't wait to catch up with you there you're our opening keynote on day one so appreciate that thank you very much guys it's been a pleasure thank you thanks [Music]

Channel: Soar Financial

Views: 1,288

Rating: 4.8518519 out of 5

Keywords: gold price, gold stocks, gold miners, deep value stocks, value investing, value stocks 2021, uranium, uranium price, uranium stocks, sprott uranium, uranium etf, investing in uranium, precious metals, precious metals summit, ronald stöferle, ronald stoeferle, ronald peter stoeferle, sf live, soar financial, kai hoffmann, investing in gold, gold mining stocks, incrementum, in gold we trust, us inflation, inflationary pressure, gold cot report, gold price forecast

Id: 7tVAjwGPb2Q

Length: 16min 17sec (977 seconds)

Published: Mon Sep 13 2021