was I set yeah all right yeah okay perfect is that okay yeah yeah I don't I don't want to so that's perfect that'll work all right we go all right we still got some people coming in here but let's get this thing kicked off uh my name is Pat o'ban I am a first year student here at MIT Sloan and a degenerate Gambler so I'm pretty excited I'm pretty excited to be a part of this panel um we got a great crew for you today I'm sure if you're here last year if you've seen any of the uh videos from the past couple years this usually is one of the best panel we get at the conference um so I'd like to introduce our panelists today we got Jay corn from the Las Vegas hotel in Cino we have Patrick dunan from the sports boss.com Chad milman editorinchief ESPN magazine David froh har Lane uh from the three red group the winner of the Las Vegas hotel super contest this year and uh Jeff Maha who knows every single person at this conference I've noticed in the past few hours um today we we will be uh going for about an hour and if you have any questions you can either text them to 22 I'm sorry text them to the number 22333 and use the code word of betting uh you can also tweet to at poll and still use that betting uh password before you send it in so without further Ado I'm going to kick things off and uh let let Jeff take this away sure I'm uh I'm I'm so fascinated by these guys that I'm not even sure where to start but I I'll start with Patrick who um is uh the handicapper here we kind of had an argument off uh back in the back room before we came on about whether he was a handicapper or A Tout and what the difference is between the two of them and what that even means so Patrick I'll let you address that first of all like describe to us what a handicapper is what you do and then specifically take us through um one of your plays today that we kind of talked about and how you came to that okay um yeah I think there's a difference between touts and handicappers in the sense that a handicapper is more analytics driven is more transparent in their activities whereas A Tout to me is more of a machine a marketing machine um with little transparency kind of using big words Game of the Year game of My Life game of my career instead of using you know static ratings on their plays um and being transparent so so quick question if you're a handicapper and you're a good handicapper I assume right you think you're a good handicapper I think I'm all right I'm all right why why don't you just bet your own games why would you sell your games to start with well I I do bet my own games but I don't see there's really no it doesn't impact me by selling my advice to somebody else if they can profit profit off of it so I don't see any reason why not to if I can consistently win and feel comfortable doing that philosophically so do you always bet Games first and then send your picks out yeah or vice versa either way vice versa do your picks ever move lines um no I wouldn't say so are you Jay have you are you aware of his work at all no are there are there handicappers or touts who's who's uh let's just say touts anyone that sells pcks are there any people that sell pcks who move lines not that I know of um I I I had the same question that you did Jeff and that is you know why sell your picks if you're that good why would you have to sell your picks um I know some of the top handicappers that we have in Las Vegas don't sell their pcks uh they just go along and do their business pretty much stay under the radar and they're they're so good they're very good that they there's no reason for them to sell their picks now we talked uh on Thursday night you mentioned that your job is to kind of figure out what the sharps and the analytic people are doing and stay ahead of them can you just describe kind of that process of how you figure that out by the way it kind of reeks to me because it's like what they used to do to us at the blackjack tables try to figure out what we did that's our job Jeff I but is it we're trying we're trying to figure out what you're doing we're trying to figure out how you're beating us but is that your job though is shouldn't your job be to just be on the same side of them because like take the Super Bowl for example right you guys were on the same side as the sharps and you made a ton of money off of it because all the public was on the other side in in most cases we do try to position ourselves with the the better handicappers in Las Vegas so when we know that they're on a particular game whether they beat it at or bed at our house or uh around the the world you know we're trying to identify those type of movements and those type of bets uh but these you know statistical systems they you know they're they're looking for deviations they're looking for weak spots uh market and efficiencies and it's our job to sit there and and try to identify them and we position ourselves to be on the same side as of those type of plays or correct weak spots that we might have uh in our own lines so we do a little bit of both but I can tell you that our main goal is to position ourselves in the best possible excuse me position and um usually that's with some of the top handicappers that are out there can you just give a quick synopsis of the money flow line movement in the Super Bowl since that's some one that everyone a game that everyone obviously watched and understands um well we opened we we have about four or five handicappers at the LVH uh subar book and um we had a range from anywhere from 2 and 1/2 Seattle 2 and 1/2 to Seattle minus one and we ended up posting Seattle minus 2 at that time it was one of the first lines out there in the world and the money started pouring in on Denver and it kind of snowballed as a lot of Sharps out there wanted to jump on on this movement and possibly get in early and then sell late a lot of these guys that took the Broncos at uh say pick or plus one or even minus one was really hoping that this line would go all the way up to three and they were holding out until the last possible moment and I know a couple of books were just on the verge in in Las Vegas anyway not going to three but it really didn't happen I think one book did go to three but uh it was a case where that early movement that we saw it was just a fine-tuning of the market and for the most part we were kind of we were off we we we underestimated the support that Denver was going to get uh in the earlier two playoff games the general public bet against the Broncos they bet the Chargers against the Broncos they bet the Patriots against the Broncos and all of a sudden they get to the Super Bowl everybody's on Denver so we we had to uh uh adjust accordingly uh do you think were they betting the Broncos at pick or um at minus one or plus I think you said plus one right were they betting the Broncos hoping to get to the Broncos minus three was that the idea or do you think they were actually seeing value in that particular number I think they were trying and this happens and it doesn't happen as often as it did in the past you don't see numbers running so much that you that they have these type of opportunities but this number was definitely running in some of the sharps out there we're trying to bet Denver early at plus one pick minus one hoping that they could get Seattle at plus three and have a nice little middle going into the game uh but as we all know it really didn't happen uh they the number didn't go to three so a lot of that late money that came in on Seattle had to get off their bets their earlier bets at plus 2 and a half and even at plus two as you saw some of the bigger markets uh in the world uh closed at Denver minus one- one and a half when you uh David as the uh the resident expert here U David won 68% of his picks in the Las Vegas contest which is very impressive you want to briefly talk about the contest and then also I'd love to see did you did you use your model on the super B at all and look at what the pick would be yeah I mean there's um I I'll answer the uh the second question first I mean I have a model which is just a statistical model that turns out a result um but then I make tweaks to it so you know when I did this for the Super Bowl what are some of the inputs of the model um I actually restrict it only to uh to box score data which I'll acknowledge is is kind of limiting but I just kind of make it a project to like do the absolute best I can of extracting as much information as I can from that box SC data and then I have to make adjustments on my own cuz there's like what are some specific what are some specific things in the Box talk about a lot of different injuries are the like Team level statistics so basically what I'm what I'm saying is I don't have like individual player are you being KY or are you being vague um first downs rushing yards passing attempts like any anything that's in the box score points scored points allowed all that stuff um so you know that thing spit out uh Denver minus one but then I just figured with all the injury problems at Denver's uh uh defense and and everything and then just the fact that Seattle had a good pass defense against pton Manning I figured Seattle minus one and a half was the right line so like you know when Jay was saying that opened up Seattle minus two I was like okay no bet here that's the perfect number um but then I as I was quite surprised it steamed all the way to Denver minus 2 and a half Patrick when you looked at that line what did what did your numbers say yeah that's interesting because when I saw it came out Seattle was favored uh I actually sent out a tweet saying I had Denver I was talking to David about this the other night I had Denver as about a two-point favorite in the game so when it steamed up to Denver I got concerned once I saw that all that money coming on Denver but that was about the number I had on it I am a Broncos fan but it was an unbiased uh power rating when you when you uh Jay when you look at that game and that line and what happened obviously it's you get influenced by it what what are the analytics that made Seattle really someone that you guys wanted to set as a favor well just looking at some of the past performances and and again going back to some of the betting patterns we saw leading up to that game where uh people were betting against Denver and Denver was a public team the entire season and then we get to the playoffs and the public was was betting against the Broncos and it just kind of caught us a little off guard uh as those B betting patterns changed but uh um the the Super Bowl line is the one line that's really geared towards the public and and all the other lines that we make for the rest of the year is pretty much going against the sharps you know the Wise Guys the guys that are are sophisticated that have you systems programs um with the exception of the Super Bowl all the lines are geared towards the wise guy play um the the one game that's dominated by pure public money and it overruns all the sharp money uh is the Super Bowl and that's one one of the reasons why we thought that uh go let me go back to Seattle Seattle was also a public team they were really getting a lot of support throughout the entire season um the numbers the um I'd say the uh it's not we're not defined like a lot of people think we're not running all all this massive data uh you know we're not a bunch of mathematicians back there in the NFL the NFL is more of a art form for us our power ratings are pretty much in our head in fact I I think you guys would be very disappointed on how we make some of these lines it's that's it I mean for the NFL for the NFL and we usually at the LVH we usually post NFL lines about a week ahead of everybody else and it's exactly that we have some very sharp odds makers and and uh guys that have been doing it for a long time and it's pretty much a group just like this where we just kind of go around and say what do you got 2 and 1/2 1 and 1/2 2 3 let's go up with two unless someone makes a case sounds pretty scientific yeah for but it it is a feel and there's and I'm going to tell you odds making on our part is always going to have some kind of art form to it and and and I think that's where you might see some of the flaws of just statistical systems you know they don't have so that that's a good thing that I actually want to touch on so like when we look at that Super Bowl line right my theory on that line and and why it was kind of wrong or why it was misleading was a lot about the difference in competition that the two teams had faced right I mean that the the Broncos uh hadn't faced the really top defense I mean all year and this was you know the the top defenses all were were in the NFC so is due statistical where are the failings of some of the statistical models that we see I think I think it's uh doesn't account a lot of the human factors like whether it's uh travel uh emotion you know the the some of the some of the top handicappers that I talk to in but I mean that's not like the Super Bowl wasn't won or loss because of travel or emotion right well I mean Seattle Seattle big rivalry is well are the 49ers I mean that was a really big game for them and there was uh but shouldn't they have been a let down then for the Super Bowl let down for the Super Bowl well that's what I'm saying that this is this is all like doesn't make any sense to me we're talking people looking like no matter how big of a deal the conference Championship is like you're going to get up to the Super Bowl well you get two weeks but also what made the Super Bowl so difficult to handicap and to make a line for was the public perception and the perception was that the 49ers were becoming better and better as a team and that they were really a team that a lot of people were thinking was probably the Super Bowl favorite the team to represent the NFC so when the Seahawks beat them and they didn't beat them soundly they they potentially beat them or they did beat them because of what a lot of people saw as sort of a lucky play that where they had otherwise been dominated the rest of the game and possibly could have lost the game on a last second touchdown then you've got the patriots who had been playing great and then the Broncos beat the Patriots and you've got this sort of Vortex of all these teams and people pursing the way each team won the game so that's why even though the right play was to open the Seahawks as two-point favorites you had all this public money rushing in and don't forget you're in Vegas for Championship weekend and that is as big a weekend in terms of handle as anything that is leading up to the Super Bowl now and so you've got people rushing out of town who had just seen the the Broncos destroy the patriots who everyone thought was playing as well as any body could be playing because the week before larrett blunt had Run for God knows how many yards and you've got the Seahawks barely beating the 49ers and everyone thinking they barely escaped so you've got this Rush of money that comes in that's what makes the Super Bowl so difficult that's where the analytics on a game like that from a hand from a odds making perspective go out the window now it turns out everybody who was handicapping from an analytical perspective most people were on the Seahawks and so they were thrilled cuz most people I spoke to were on the Seahawks and would have played the Seahawks at minus two except they got lucky and the public money moved the game towards the Broncos and so that's why the Super Bowl never ends always ends up being the most difficult game to calculate from an analytical perspective because the public has so much influence on that particular line I think the Super Bowl really stands out I mean normally if you disagree with the with the market by Four Points you're wrong is is basically what it comes down to but I I do feel like the super B is different like you can actually look at that line and say that line was wrong by four or five points and that's just um I I attributed that all the public money that comes in on the Super Bowl Patrick why do you think that your model was off on the Super Bowl or maybe it wasn't maybe maybe you don't think it was but right yeah just cuz the outcome of one game was one way it doesn't mean the model is off but you know one of the interesting things about the Super Bowl is I tend to look at overall performance but then I also look at that home and road splits and then I also break things down strength of schedule wise where I break a team into rushing passing and miscellaneous categories such as first downs time of possession things that you can't put into a t a rushing or passing category and I break strength of schedule down into those buckets to see how a team is truly performing because often times we'll hear you know the media talk about uh they have the 10th ranked defense but what's better the 10th ranked defense facing the worst schedule of offense offenses in the NFL or the 15th ranked defense facing the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so you got to be able to quantify that and also one of my big things with Russell Wilson I mean his splits are poor on the road he's a much better quarterback at home versus the road and I kind of played that into everything and I also figured the very vanilla defensive game plan that Seattle usually plays I thought Payton would be able to take advantage of that um but that when you what did you make the line in the national championship game the college national championship game what did your model come out at just so you guys know is Florida state was favored by about 8 to start and then it went all the way up to what 11 at the end yeah um roughly speaking I I actually don't I don't really have a power rating formula for college for football now because I think it's very complex with the strength of schedule uh when I was in sitting in on the college football panel yesterday um you know they were discussing different ways to calculate a strength of schedule how do you really calculate it you know how do you know if they say it's the 30C toughest schedule what is that based on team's records well who did they play it's just too tough I think to come up with but I thought me the college the national championship to me was a complete example of strength of schedule difference right you had Florida State who would had played this ridiculous schedule and beat the crap out of everyone doing it against Auburn who' played this hard you know horribly hard schedule and had surviv barely survived right and so the analytical systems everyone that I looked at said that Florida State should have been favored by 15 or 16 in that game we all kind of know what happened I mean they barely won and I wonder is are we is there opportunities because analytical systems that people use often have failings to look for opportunities like have Ken pal and Sagarin and all these things have they become to commonplace where now no information asymmetry I know Chad you and I were talking about this a little bit I was going to say who are you asking that to but any of you guys I feel like there's no information asymmetry but there's it's interesting because all these things have democratized the process of betting and they've also made it much more popular and has made it much more accessible for people to understand what's happening and feel comfortable doing it I mean there's a lot of other sort of forces in play here because the internet has be made it so much more accessible so you don't have to go to some dark alley and get kneecapped if you're going to make a bet but you're you have opportunities to bet online and you have just this Rush of information coming from online and then you get guys like kenpom and you get guys like Sagarin who are using quality analytics or even you know the guys like football Outsiders um who are basing a lot of what they're doing on data and data that is being used by professional teams to make the same decisions they make and so that that lends a lot more credibility to the decision-making I don't know that it it that there is a flood of the market that has devalued all this information I just think maybe in that particular instance the the information they were using I think the strength of schedule thing wasn't weighted High enough um and that's why everybody was coming out with Florida State you know should win this game I think you know we added in the same thing at ESPN you you said on your podcast that they were going to kill him I think I did definitely did I did that I did that based on you know the information I was getting and the information I was looking at and the stats that I look at I can be wrong when when you you obviously talk to a lot of Sharps is there one sharp I I asked you this off off word but if you could bet on only one guy's games who would it be and why somebody who doesn't go on a show maybe yeah seriously uh David froh har Lane definitely tough would have worked out well last year I'm not sure I'm the guy next maybe the guy who was on this panel last year would have been you know who's obviously brilliant on the NBA um you know there's a group uh you know that Patrick and Joo right angle Sports they do a lot of college football and a lot of college basketball and I think a lot of of the the handicappers that become most successful are the ones who are finding the niche in particular Sports so some guys they're betting only college basketball totals and when they're betting totals they're not paying attention to the big conferences they're paying attention to this to the sort of the mid- majors and smaller um and that's where the value is and that's all anybody in Vegas is trying to do is find the value what are what are some okay if we talk about these guys that are doing college basketball totals what kind of analytics are they using you know a lot of it is is efficiency ratings offensive efficiency defensive efficiency um how teams are uh three-point efficiency things like that um pace is a big deal I mean you mentioned Ken palom you know it was I was at the LVH I don't know four or five years ago and I was talking to a couple of Jay's guys and we were behind the counter and I just said you know who who are people talking about who are the who are the the guys who are coming to the counter the Wise Guys who are they betting who's betting who are they thinking about what are they following and and to a man everyone said they're following kenpom.com kenpom now is a rights for Insider at ESPN but he's a guy who was just doing a lot of what people are doing now or had been doing for baseball he was looking at metrics in an entirely different way for college basketball and it's it's fascinating because if you look at the stuff that he has and now there's other people doing this as well you know Patrick has has sort of worked up a formula that is that is also sort of dependent on advanced level stats that you see a huge difference between what the public is thinking about teams and what guys who are paying attention to these uh the games at a much more advanced level are thinking about and that's what Wise Guys do too I talked to a wise guy a couple weeks ago this is before Syracuse went on their their mini streak right now that they're on their losing streak and he didn't even have uh Syracuse as a number one seat and I'm like Syracuse has been playing great what's going on he goes you know if I look at my numbers they're just not that good you know I see there are days where I see Iowa being as a higher seed than Syracuse and that's based on you know pacing and efficiency and things like that where he just wasn't loving Syracuse and it's you know soon after that Syracuse started dumping games Jay who do you who do you we talked about who Chad Chad wants to bet David's games all the times who who are you who do you fear the most as a as a that walks into your sports book well I don't want to give out names well just describe them and describe what they do and their methods yeah well I'm sure these people won even know their names anyways yeah there there's some names out there that everybody knows but uh um you know these guys these systems these programs um one of the Hot Topics these days has been the number of possessions you know a lot of people looking at that and I I think the the difficult part for any of these systems statistical systems is uh trying to quantify value I mean it's it how you know how do you measure this and I hear a short sample I hear small sample a lot you know and and people trying to use these type of systems um to benefit and get you know recognized deviations however it might be but uh how how good or how long are these things going to last and that's what I hear on the other side of the counter and even though it's becoming more and more popular and there are some uh you're bearish on analytics for sports betting yeah the the uh um we our side of the counter Jeff we really don't do that much I mean we're doing a little bit more and more each year you know we're we're trying to look at we look at Ken pal like you said that 4 or five years ago we looked at that you know whether it's uh other uh websites or systems uh ratings that we use we don't we don't actually calculate those ourselves we just we actually go to many different types of websites and use that information if we need to uh if we are you know I I heard last year you guys talking about you know player profiling we we we look at people that are beating us and we're trying to figure out what they're doing and uh whether we have to you know look we look at their track record look at their types of bets uh the time that they bet these things and we look at some of the information that's out there on these websites where it's Ken pal maty uh whatever it might be uh I mean we use ESPN we we go yeah we we we look over all this type of information to try to figure out what kind of angle that they might be coming at us with so do you um do you think that um if if you're sort of bearish on analytics then where do you think the value or I'll ask this whole this whole crew where do where does the value come from in the future for for sports betting I mean I I think the value is is uh approaching the whole process completely differently I think um the analytics are getting better and better the edges available are just smaller and smaller there will always be Edge you'll always be able to figure out how to bet with positive expected value but I think the edges you're chasing are just going to keep going down and it's going to be to the point where it's not worth it you know at the same time you just you just have to stop looking at it is like I'm going to find Value in an NFL line you start looking at new stuff like daily fantasy sports I think the biggest opportunity in the world right now is is in Europe where they have these betting exchanges where you're just going to be you know churning out volume constantly it's kind of like you know high frequency trading where you're going to be betting the game like both ways like 20 times and just trying to make a tiny bit on each transaction Uh there's Big Money there but uh it's I think it's going away and because just because people are getting smarter I agree I think I think the value in betting isn't in finding the uh that unknowable stat it's in the offerings it's what is the next thing in-game wagering you know first five innings of betting on baseball what are those things where the market hasn't quite caught up to what the professionals are doing yet is where professionals are finding the most Advantage because I've spoken to so many professional gamblers who they're doing as much playing ingame as they are doing pregame because are they able to get large amount of money down on in game in first five some guys are I mean it depends on what you you know how many bets you're laying but the the way these things are sliced you've got all this data you are thinking about and you've got all this research you've done as a professional Gambler over the course of a week or over the course of a season and the way NFL lines specifically come out it's so difficult because they're moving so quickly and they're they become pretty sharp you know pretty quickly and so your opportunity to really beat the market is when the game is happening because you've got a better sense of how these teams play you are going through the box scores on a week to week basis you are understanding the pace and rhythm of a game and so when you are betting in the game you're basing it on the data that you have available but also sort of this um this innate knowledge that you have from having watched these games over the course of several weeks is why a lot of guys don't really start betting significantly until they're three or four weeks into an NFL season I think a big part too is uh for those looking to bet Sports and maybe looking for opportunities would be rule changes in style of play that where these you someone comes up and and has this data that you know that might find deviations in the market and I think that whenever there are rule changes in in any sport so give me an example of a realle change that influenced things well at first uh when the the the season when the college basketball rule change about checking you know and we thought that the scoring was going to go up it did actually at the beginning of the year for for a while uh but then the market uh slowly caught up to that and I believe I I mentioned to you just about a month ago I think we were looking at 54% of college basketball games have actually gone under the under the total but uh maybe you were able to capture that at the beginning of the year as most of those totals were going over and there was more scoring but then it it panned out it ran its course and you're going to have to look at the next opportunity but that's just a small example of many different uh rule changes that U people can take advantage of if they have the right data Patrick do you have you looked at any of that type of stuff like last year or two years ago when the NBA had their their lock or their lock out and and scoring was way down like how do you take in account things like that or can you give me an example of of a place where you've been able to exploit that we're kind of just going back to the question that you just previously asked first I think there are numerous areas you can find Value and it's not necessarily mathematically based but it's been a common theme I've heard about in other conferences here um is the psychological emotional level that teams are going to play with so it matters what sport we're talking um because in a football season there's only 16 games in professional so you kind of know that everyone's going to bring it for the most part each game but where you can really find edges are in college basketball NBA where there's longer seasons and it's a little easier to tell you know who needs the game more or I also look at the probability so if a team wins like 10 in a row and especially if some of them were you know close games down to the last second recently then I like to you know fade that team so I've been fading Florida a lot of late they just keep barely scraping by in these low-scoring games very close and they haven't been covering a lot lately uh Virginia which we talked about in the green room today today my biggest play is on Syracuse because Virginia has won about 11 games in a row um they're statistically defensively they play well but offensively they struggle um so I think those are the areas you have to try to find an edge whether it's probability the likelihood of something happening and the emotional level that a team is going to play with like we saw NC State against North Carolina earlier this week NC State needed that game to stay in the bubble conversation North Carolina had won like 10 in a row perfect spot to take the wolf pack they almost won but they covered you know it's I completely agree with him there's sort of that we just did the analytics issue that's out now and a lot of the theme of the analytics issue was the study of dark matter in analytics right how do you measure chemistry how do you measure momentum how do you measure these things that are now the intangibles since there has been such a huge statistical revolution in sports what is the next phase of that and certainly from a broader study perspective those intangibles I think are what people are going to try to put their finger on at Le you know from A Team level but also from a gambling level the difference is that from a gambling level it's something that they've been talking about since the point spread was invented you know is what what how much does this team need this game what is the emotional Factor they've been inherently making that a part of their power rating uh since you know since the beginning of betting on sze I I still think there is some analytical information that's not probably fully integrated into the Bing Market I think if somebody could do uh you know a really thorough job of uh processing like pitch FX data and and detecting when a pitcher is uh getting better worse or learning a new pitch like that could be an edge um so there I I still think there's some to be done on the analytical side but uh again the edges are going to be smaller and smaller when you guys think about something like injuries um how do you guys how does how do injuries are the the um the concern that I have in this conversation is that we're talking about all these things right that are obviously factors in the success of a team but are really hard to quantify so they don't sound very analytical to me I mean Patrick your explanation about Florida and whatnot I understand it but it it also doesn't it doesn't give me a warm sense of calm that you know what you're doing when you know what what what is the what is the sort of like how do you actually create anal around something like that well that that's the tough part I I was discussing this with Chad and I walk over it's it's tough to kind of find a way to put a numerical value on things like an emotional level or the probability that something's going to happen it's hard to find a numerical way to adjust your power ratings and the spread um to evaluate that but to your point on injuries uh I think injuries are one of the most overrated things that handic cappers or odds makers ad just for uh around especially when you look at the but doesn't that mean then there's an opportunity absolutely yeah I disagree with him more on that by the way so ask me about it after why don't you guys talk to each other you don't need to look at me so we we can look at you know a couple examples here uh we can look at Miami the heat right LeBron James has missed I don't know if it's like seven or eight games over the last however many years they's seven in one in those games um you look at that information Miss Spurs Heat game from a couple years ago where papovich sent everybody back Spurs win in Miami this is not a very big sample size you're talking here but I've done I've done a re I've actually researched this where I was discussing with one of the students earlier um where I went back and I looked in the NBA at Allstar players and I looked at when they wind up missing one or two games and the winning percentage ATS where the team who that means against the spread yes against the spread uh for the think anyone in this group doesn't understand that ATS it's like the smartest degenerates in the history of mankind look like degenerates to me but in the NBA when you're missing an All-Star player for just one or two games the rest of the players are able to elevate their game in that small sample size to actually cover and the number was like 65% I went back like 10 years but most of the betting public will go the other way oh LeBron James isn't playing there'll be a a huge adjustment and so then do you just do you just do you blindly bet on teams pretty much that are missing an All-Star you honestly could blindly bet on teams that are missing an All-Star in the NBA and you would be profitable you could blindly bet it just follow it out there just see more cuz now it's out there only in the first two games too it's only like to me this is one of the this is this is one of those opportunity spots right because I do think that the examination of the value of injuries I'm thinking more about the NFL than I am about the NBA but are you are you going to tout your milman rankings right now I wasn't going to but than bring go ahead and talk about so for the past couple years we've done we've done this thing uh on on the blog that I do um called the milman rankings because I'm a very humble guy and but it's based on a metric we created called point spread value above replacement and what it does is it measures the value of a player against the point spread compared to what the spread would be if his replacement was playing and it's got a bunch of complicated stats in there because you know like what are they we're very very smart what are the complicated it's really they're not complicated stats but what we're doing is we're going back and judging how well players how teams performed without those players what the stats of those players who replaced them were and then just sort of doing formulaic complications that how how can you do that with like a guy like Tom Brady right he's is missed he's well then you're you're it's sort of a judgment call you're basic so there's not a lot of analytics that go in it's kind of very subjective here the curtain on this thing okay I don't know if this is what Chad's doing but you could like look over historically of like you know all kinds of quarterbacks and see how much does a drop off from various levels of quarterback how much does that hurt the team and then you ask yourself okay where does Tom Brady fall on this spectrum of quarterbacks got to go there the point of the the point is that you get a specific number on this and if you are aware that there is an injury happening you are a if you're aware that the injury has happened you can take advantage of that before the market adjusts and get a very good sense of what the value is in the point spread if bookmakers have adjusted it too much have they not adjusted it enough and I think that's often why you know I talked to so many professional gamblers who are watching preseason games deep into the fourth quarter because they want to know how good is the second or third string guard for the ners in case the first string guard gets injured because that's a lot of the places where you're going to find Value is if that guy is out and bookmakers don't necessarily adjust because you know the first ring guard for the San Francisco 49ers isn't playing well let me give you an example too um and a footnote my comment I definitely agree that if quarterbacks get hurt especially the elite ones clearly an adjustment needs to be made um but I'll give you an example think that an over adjustment is made cuz that's that's the premise the premise is not is not that this team is better without this player the point is that the bookmaker over adjust for that person being out and therefore there's an opportunity I would say there's an under adjustment for the elite quarterbacks in the NFL I don't think like when Rogers was out I think they were adjusting at about a touchdown eight points I don't think that's enough I think it has to be higher well when Rogers went out they initially adjusted at a touchdown but it closed at about 10 points yeah what was your ranking on Rogers he was at 10 oh but just you like how I set you up there huh as a matter of fact Jay um do you what do you what's your take on the injury stuff and how you guys look to adjust things for injuries we're always concerned about injuries because of the the timing of the injuries and when information might be out there I know that uh there's been a lot of talk about some of the best handicappers out there have people at these games actually and and find out that this guy is either going to play or not going to play you know maybe he's warming up and yeah he's going to play but he's looking he's looking like he's about 80% so we look for those type of patterns uh before uh you know maybe warm-ups or you know late uh let's say late betting before a game tips or or starts um those type of bets usually seem pretty strong because when we have a guy that's questionable that it's like our biggest nightmare is you know we we prefer he's either going to play or he's out when when we see the word questionable it it's always a reason for concern and then especially if we see some bigger plays come in right before uh the start of the game either way obviously if they're playing for a team that had a guy that was questionable most likely it looks like he's going to go I remember the the big uh headache no pun intended was the uh Steve Francis migraines like 15 years ago when he was I think he was playing for he was either the magic or the Rockets but it was like three straight months he had these migraines that kept coming and going and you know the line kept moving like three points each way and there was I guess value to be had in just figuring out what the heck was going on with this one guy that's what gamblers Remember by the way remember that time Steve Francis had those migraines St Franc I just remember on the online forums a lot of bookmakers just venting and swearing like this guy decide Jay do you do you agree with Patrick in that uh you overreact to injuries and there's an opportunity there sometimes we overreact sometimes we don't react at all uh you know we get paid for being close you know I mean it's that's our job we have that luxury of just being close uh when when we have guys out there and you guys have already shown this there's there's difference of opinions out there there's uh statistical systems that find Value at minus 3 and a half and there's others that find Value at plus three and A2 and that's the beauty of being on the bookmaker side as as time has progressed for you um in your career do you find that now you are closer to even on game or are you more leveraged in games even as like even action versus uneven action has there been any Trend in that because I theoretically if if what you guys are saying and the edge is disappearing then action should become more even right is that true well they may like to have a side I mean they may like to um you know shade it less more and more towards the sharp side but maybe not completely matching it and I don't know what Jay's opinion is on this but I've spoken to plenty of bookmakers who are comfortable basically beding on a side they're not always looking for two-way action is there any has there been any trend is the question is it is there any or is it the same as it's always been it's the same as it's always been but uh you know we these are small samples here you know we're not concerned about a game we're really not concerned about a week you know if we start losing you know for a month or something like that then then there's there's reason to have some concern and we probably have to dig a Little Deeper of what's going on there whether it's you know college basketball college basketball totals first half numbers whatever it might be you know we're always going to analyze and look at those types of betting patterns that we're losing on and who we're losing to and uh make adjustments from that point so let's go quickly uh down the line I want to talk about specific statistics that you think are either that probably the most underrated statistics so if there's one statistic in one sport that is really underrated that you would use to handicap a game what would it be for me I don't think there's anything simple out there I think it's the complex stuff like looking into the plus minus numbers not just using them blindly but seeing how you can use them in a predictive way looking at for basketball or hockey um but not just literally using them like using them to try to you know are you talking about individual people's plus minuses to understand their impact understand their impact on a game uh for pitchers pitch FX I think it's I don't think the simple stuff's out there really anymore what do you think uh I mean this isn't like the key to the kingdom but yards per play in the NFL I think is a much trer indicator of performance and value than total yards it's it's a much better predictor but I think it's in there I mean I don't think I you think that's in the line already yeah yeah how about you Patrick yeah for me for my like the statistical testing I do it's no question net yards per pass attempt in the NFL no nothing you can explain that one I I I found that I find thatting so go ahead and explain why you think that is well it has the highest correlation with W winning games scoring points allowing points um there's very few times over the course of a season um where a team will lose the yards per pass attempt and lose the game very few Jay do you have a a stat a favorite stat that you think is I I like I mentioned earlier I think uh the number of possessions is is really hot right now and and and that's for betting totals yes yeah we've always struggled with totals ever since I've been in the business and it it certainly is a battle I I think uh the in the college ranks with so many different styles and and type of play and and and Tempo and and coaching uh changes Styles there's there's so much information out there that the bookmakers have a hard time a very difficult time keeping up with that so uh I think there's if I was if I was to be on the other side of the counter and and I'm bookmaker not a handicapper but if I was a handicapper I'd probably be looking at totals because I think there's opportunities there what do you guys think is the most overrated stat don't say points or yards yards per play just kidding man um no I um I don't know I mean it's it's most of the most of the uh I don't know I'd say something like like uh like RBI or whatever but I think most people are past that um at this point or pitcher one loss records but you know I don't I don't think those are really Incorporated in into the lines um yeah I I I don't know it's uh I guess I just I just uh have the standard standard line I think most of the saber metric stuff the further deeper you go into that is more predictive and the the traditional stuff is less predictive you guys have any like I mean the overrated stats are you know when I think about it right it's like in football I mean obviously like we talk about turnovers and things like that creating opportunity um you know win loss win loss record in baseball is is really overrated right because I think you probably say across Sports win loss records are are pretty overrated I mean a lot of times when I was you know betting baseball I was almost just even unaware of of what teams win loss records were because it just doesn't impact the probability winning uh going player by player and having a projection for each player like what's his probability of double single Etc and just you know playing the simulation and getting the probability that way uh okay let's talk about uh refs do refs what kind of uh Patrick you obviously get paid to do this what kind of what kind of do you have any like umpires refs anything like that does that figure into your model no I don't really worry about that because I figure over the course of a season everything's going to really even out for the most part so while it might hurt one night it's going to help another night and it's going to all uh you know come out even but I will say if you're a totals player I don't play any totals only sides I think referees can be a pretty good indicators Chad from the sharps that you talked to what what kind of stuff are they doing with RS not much you know I mean if we're talking about NFL not much at all I mean no let's talk about I mean the two places that I think that it's umpires in baseball is huge under I mean that was that was a real Trend and uh in basketball Tendencies around fouls and possessions can can have a huge impact it's I think it's more relevant in the I think you need some new Sharps to talk it could be it's true maybe they wer never that sharp to begin with I I think that's true I think that's true with umpires um it may not may be less true cuz people are like we have pitch effects it's we're able to evaluate the umpires but when I was betting baseball like when when people found out herbach was behind the plate like the the line goes way down you just wanted to bet that blindly if it if it wasn't baked in yet Jay are you guys knowledgeable of the umpires we are uh but uh I I think the Market's already caught up to that and adjusted to that I think that was something that uh some people were taking advantage of years ago but uh um most of the bookmakers out there that set these lines have caught up to that and have that information handy when they're posting especially Baseball lines actually I'll take back some my answer I bet there is one thing that's an inefficiency in the market right now um usually if you look at The Cutting Edge of saber metric research it takes a couple years for it to get baked into the lines and a lot of this stuff about catcher framing I think saber Maxs is just recently starting to appreciate that I bet that'll be in the market completely in maybe two or three years but there might be a little opportunity right now um betting like the under on on a catcher who's good at Framing and and getting strike calls um why are you why have you never thought about being a professional sports Gambler or have you I did and then um uh you know I I decided to be a Trader instead and I had really mixed feelings about that and I had a lot of regret and then all of a sudden it became a lot tougher legally to do the gambling so I was like okay there goes my regret I'm just you know it's okay I can move on now so okay uh let's see um in terms of um like major major advances in sports or changes in sports we talked a little bit about like what what what are some other things Chad that you see in the future where value might might come and and what are the opportunities there H we'll get back to you well I was going to say does it have to be a particular sport or any sport any sport you know I think a lot about the NFL um and to me the NFL seems like the worst place it's the worst place to bet but it's what everyone bets and so that's why would that be the place where There's an opportunity well can I finish might be where public I don't know I mean I think there's constantly opportunities in offensive Innovation because they are constantly changing the rules to benefit the offense and so the person who is able to identify what what that rule what the impact of that rule change is and how that's impacting all the other stats across the board offensively and then how those aren't yet baked into the point spread is the person who's going to have the first mover advantage in those things right that's that's where like the statistical testing and kind of understanding your data and the evolution of the game the game has changed you know back 20 years ago it was critical to run the ball effectively and stop the run but with all the Run changes now if you run statistical testing on the NFL data it clearly shows passing is much more important than running the ball Jay when you uh when a sharp is winning at a high rate how uh big do his bets need to be for the casinos to start tracking him and figure out his system like what what are the size bets where you start thinking about someone well it does vary um but uh most of the sharps out there are going to bit your limits whatever they might be and whether they're 1,000 2,000 5,000 10,000 you know some of our our house players are going to get a lot more than that but uh how much would you let David BET next year if he came in I like David and I would let him bet what do you think David 20 30 50 sounds good yeah keep up 68% then I might be lower to five you know maybe two but uh no that I mean we we get new players that come in all the time hosts will bring in players and we have no idea what this guy's going to do and it's one of the more difficult uh things that we have to deal with is uh uh player profiling uh from from the very start when we have no record no history on this guy and we're trying to figure out what type of player he is normally after he makes about two or three wages we we know what type of player he's I'm guessing you'd be more scared of a guy who comes in not necessarily wins five games in a row but has five games in a row where his play is like correlated to the line move if like if the guy's like beating the line move each time then like that's an indication he's pretty sharp even if he goes two and three on those games or something and that's why when we have two or three plays from a particular uh player or a new guy um you know that's something that we're going to look at you know is that did his line did the lines or the games that he bet did the lines move in his favor you know he laid two and it closed at four and that's a big red flag for us uh but uh you know we you know for us um limits do vary uh but uh you know guys that can come in and bet 10 or 20 a game you know after two or three plays we might raise those limits to 50 or something like that but uh if if the guy plays games that the line moves in his favor like David said there's there's a good chance that we would limit him to our our normal limits for NFL would be $110,000 how much are you letting Floyd Mayweather BET right now Floyd uh he doesn't want to bet at our place yeah we you know limits are are basically uh set by upper management and and how much they can stomach and uh you know it certainly been well publicized that he bet six figures years and most books won't take that you know most most books don't want to gamble with with those type of Wagers and even though we think he's probably going to hit about 50% you know most most uh casinos don't want to stomach uh you know a $300,000 decision on a on any game so uh most places won't give Mayweather those type of limits what uh advice do you guys have for a financial statistical background person to get into the World of Sports setting um throw yourself into something where you're going to get a lot of feedback quickly so if you're trying to model a sport um quit worrying you know don't worry about like accumulating hundreds of games to figure out whether you're good enough uh figure out whether your plays are correlating with the future line movements and if if they are you know you're doing something right and then you know you're on the right track and just keep throwing yourself into situations where you're going to get that feedback constantly Chad or Patrick you guys got any thoughts I would say don't do it why oh because I just think it's a it's a it's a harder way to make a living because there's fewer places you can actually make a living doing it you know but doesn't that change if if it becomes legal well yeah or if you move to Europe can move to Europe from the US uh yeah but who knows if it's going to become legal well what do you think is it going to become legal I think it's completely unknowable I I think anyone who says that way to take a stand well I you know what it's just like how who know knows what the Supreme Court is going to if if they're going to take a case you know what I mean it's just not uh anyone who can who says they can handicap whether or not the Supreme Court is going to take on a sports betting case uh is lying because there's no way to know it now you could say all right let's think about this because I was just having this conversation with a bunch of guys earlier the Supreme Court likes to wait into high-profile decisions so yeah they probably so this is a case they would be interested in the lawyers that have been hired by both sides of the case are former solicitor generals to the United States they might not have taken these cases if they didn't think they were going to get to the Supreme Court the people who hired them might not have hired them if they didn't think these cases were going to get to the Supreme Court so all of a sudden you're narrowing the odds so you know I think someone told me earlier today that the odds of a case getting before The Supreme Court are 100 to1 so if you incorporate those three factors now youve Shrunk the odds considerably but it's still you know n people who I don't know any of them so I have no idea what their mindset is I'm basing it all on sort of the publicly available data what I like him to sure but if it if it became if it became legal in the US to bet in any state how do you what do you think would change in terms of the ability for people to beat the lines would anything change oh that's interesting you know what you I mean you guys are welcome to weigh in on there's so much there's so much money in the market already it's not like people aren't betting and so it's funny to hear it's different like when you go to Europe or something you can walk into a bar and make a bet right there's a different accessibility you don't think that people would change I it's a completely different accessibility but I do think you know it's funny when you hear arguments about why there shouldn't be sports betting is because it will it it will be something that has potentially more nefarious ends and well list not the AR the debate about whether it should be legal I think everyone in this room probably say it should be legal there's a larger point and that you think there but it discounts the fact that people are already betting obscene amounts of money billions of dollars and so does that money that is in the market you know does it increase 10% or is it all those people are now just doing it legally that I so well Jay or Patrick do you guys have an opinion on this whether the question is essentially if gambling becomes legal in the US will the lines like kind of fundamentally changed and will there be any difference in in that well I I think one of the biggest problems to bet sports for a living is getting money down and if you had more Avenues to do that I think it would lead to opportunity for for more people to have success betting Sports um I think you guys are crazy if you don't think it would change like CU I think it depends on the nature of what becomes legal like if it's like completely unrestricted and you have these exchanges like in Europe you're going to have people competing to basically be the bookie you know spreads are going to really narrow um and the Market's going to become very efficient but there's still going to be money to be made trading if it's like a different situation where it's like regulated and there's specific bookmakers that are allowed to deal the games it actually might not change that much so it depends on what's legal you know my theory that I'm thinking about is just the way that you guys are talking about the Super Bowl and how the Super Bowl's so different right because there's all these random people betting on it and so now you had this opportunity in the Super Bowl where you guys could be highly leveraged but feel comfortable because you had sort of this right position does that happen when gambling becomes legal in the US and all of a sudden now you you have more Schmo gambling you have more schmoes but I the sharps would just do whatever they could to to figure out ways and and set up networks to just get more money down on the games and and so I agree it you're saying there wasn't there wouldn't be a very fundamental change in the amount and the I think there would be a small shift I think it would become maybe a little bit easier cuz you're getting more public money but I don't think it's going to be a huge deal because the sharps would be there's people who would love to I'm sure Billy Walters would love to bet more than he currently does on a game and if it's legal across the country like he'll probably figure out a way to do that Jay can Billy Walters bet more on a game than he's already betting sure if I mean there if it opens up sure if there's you know different operators out there he's going to be able to get more money down and like I said that's one of the biggest problems for some of these guys uh that have great systems uh one of the biggest problems is getting enough money down to make a living and if you were to open it up across the the country which I'm all for by the way um you know it's going to be easier for them I think to get more money down what would your guess be on how much Billy Walters puts down on a game the most that he ever gets down I have no idea I I I'm sure it varies but he you know he's bet he bets everywhere so it's really I he's such a an interesting character you know he's he's as long as he's been betting in the uh industry we don't really know that much about him and uh except that he's very good and uh he certainly can get a lot of money down but uh to put a number on that I have no clue okay well I think that's all the time we have thank you guys thank you panelists for
