SP500 IMMINENT REVERSAL Off Major Support Level

s p holds a critical level NASDAQ futures closed over fifteen thousand MDB breaks out we'll explain why Nvidia shrugs off China's sanctions Tesla starts a bottoming pattern Minerva and Neuroscience is up 70 percent today we'll explain what happened Sox was struggling with 500 we'll explain why it's no longer struggling Micron up three dollars after hours we'll explain why Bitcoin struggling with the 30 000 level and one stock with huge short interest that looks like it's getting ready to melt up we have a lot to go over let's get to it hey everybody welcome back so we'll start with the basics here we now have a support level right there 43 70 75 so we're going to want to watch that tomorrow if we come straight across here it just dropped from this control bar just want to show you this you can see how you've been battling in this area over and over again right that 4400 this is where we broke and then you can kind of see how you kept trying to get get over this next level which was the next bar that actually reversed this whole move and you're having trouble with that as well so the question becomes how are we getting out of this and what's going to lead us forward well I have a couple ideas on that but first and foremost we just kind of have to drill into this and say okay how good are these levels and then what should we be looking for going forward and if we drill into these we should be able to notice a couple things the very first thing that we will notice is that 4426 is definitely an issue call it 4425 ran up rejection rejection rejection three times four times a charm we'll find out tomorrow it's quite possible now we have economic data tomorrow GDP at 8 30 and that will definitely move the market as well as you have window dressing on Friday so we have some catalysts here that can go either way right but we look up here you have rejection now at the same time you have that rejection you have this beautiful line that just comes straight across us the whole way right now whether you draw it that way or you want to go here and say I want the peak and then I'm going to draw to this peak it doesn't really matter it seems superheated it's going to get you the same area one way or another right you can't get over can't get over what do we need to watch tomorrow right this is not rocket science we're going to want to watch that 44 26 level you're going to want to watch 40 Forks now and let's clean all this off for a moment and just notice what the RSI is doing now RSI does not determine where the stock goes it just determines magnitude of the move so if this starts turning up it's telling you that the magnitude of the move is going to accelerate okay that might lead to up it might not we don't know yet right we could it could absolutely roll but the important thing about this for me is that I have not had higher highs we have not had them and we're starting to get them so in other words you really didn't have a higher high bar you had one that was green with the clothes you reversed on that the one one day and absolute nasty fashion where you opened over it and they just lured everybody in now you got down close to the low they make you think that oh we're surely going to go down the next day and then they reverse it again so there's a lot of games going on here it's happening at what I consider some critical levels on these names so let's just drill into these so you can see them and let's just highlight the one that I think is the most important right now for us to talk about so this is a 12 SMA and I just want to point out something that we broke below it we had every intention of closing below it and we we did not so this is really important okay so this gives us a lot of leeway gives you a really clear level to watch tomorrow right if you break that 4400 you could retest back down to this level If We Hold this and we hold this level and we start going sideways well maybe that's something that we can build off of and we're going to have to see how that plays out now if you look at the NASDAQ this was as clear Thursday very similar right Gap over brings you down you're like oh maybe we'll be okay gaps you down closes at the low reverses higher high close first higher high close that we have had since back here on Thursday June 15th so we have to take that for what it is we're sitting right on the 12. I like how this is acting now we're gonna have to see what happens with it but this does make your life very easy as a technology Trader because if you break this you're just going to want to get out of the way right if you break 14 850 that level right there you're going to want to get out of the way and I'm just going to pop some of these other lines in so you can see that's going to take you right to what I have is a 22 this is a 55 this is a 200. so if you look at that right that's not something you're going to want to play with and it's definitely something I'll clean that one out so that we're we don't get confused but I would certainly pay attention to this it's definitely a level level that is of interest to me in in the community in the office Community we're pretty vocal about this and I will show you this real quick so you can watch this for yourself it's really important when you're trading that you know where your lines are in other words is it important that you know where you are with your stocks yeah is it important that you know what names you want to be in yes but it's also important you know where the indexes are and I'll just give you a really clear indication so we're treating in the room today and then all of a sudden we make another attempt right there and I just put out a little statement during this that basically just says I would not do any trades until we get over this level I would hold off on new positions if you look at your trades for the day right as soon as this happened that was pretty much it that marked the high and then we started coming back down from there by understanding where the indexes are it allows you to figure out where you're going to put your stops right so you don't want to be in a position where you're down here trying to figure out what you're going to do right you don't want to be down here you want to know that you shouldn't be adding up here you don't want to add at the high of the day right and I'll give you a great example it's not going to matter which name I go to okay they're all all these Highs are going to be around the same area it's not really going to matter what name that we refer to you're going to see these highs they're all going to be around that level it doesn't matter the industry it's completely irrelevant right all these Highs are all around the same level that 11 o'clock Mark so that's definitely something that we want to pay attention to and it's something that we want to take a look at so where am I going with this you got to look at the indexes all day long okay whether you look at the NASDAQ or you look at the s p they're going to move in Tandem and you have to watch them because if you don't watch them you're at a big disadvantage and you could just be stepping on a land mine and not even know it so I constantly watch those and then when they bounce what I like to do is then I go and look for the leaders and see what's bouncing with it a cvna was one that I traded today did not make a lot on it I do think this has potential for for tomorrow and I would put this on my list it could have cared less what the market did today could have absolutely cared less what the market did now you have GDP tomorrow 8 30. if GDP strong maybe this gets legs but that is a really nice close I mean you're you're closing at new highs right so versus where you've been you haven't had a close like this in a very long period of time you'd have to go back to September 22 to get anything like this so This has real potential to just be a leader and to keep pushing and that's how I would view it okay I I would look at this and I'd be very happy with it if I was in this I had a great day today with it and I do think that you might want to watch this tomorrow and see how it plays out maybe they're expecting something to happen with GDP that's going to lead to the course I don't know but it was the car manufacturers as well it was kmx the whole group got a bid today for some reason so I'm not entirely sure of the reason but there it is now Nvidia completely blew up that news like they could cared less about it I guess a better way of saying it is blown off that note that news so the purpose of this was more sanctions more restrictions on China look if you're sold out of a chip it doesn't matter who you put restrictions on okay they're already at capacity what are they going to do it's kind of silly that it sold down on it but we took advantage of it traded it a couple times today and I added to a longer term position now does this hold it's the third time I'm at this level it is the third time I'm sitting right there do it that way you will if I drill into this a little bit and start putting these levels in there you can see the 12 here how we touched it unable to get over that right and let's throw in the 22 and you can see how we're wedged in here this makes my life very easy because if I close under that 22 I don't want to be in this meanwhile I'm willing to stay in it as I fight to get over that 12. I like this a lot here I think there's it's a really interesting spot if you can hold here and I think you have a shot at it I think that we saw a weakness at the end of today because of Micron right not a lot of people are going to want to hold Micron into earnings or hold semis into earnings if they're just completely getting beaten around you know a lot of people just really getting crushed here with the pullbacks a lot of people are not used to the fact that there's no fed right people always complain about the FED but I don't think they truly understand how much the FED had their back for about the past 12 years so there's no fed anymore that's intervening in the markets even though they said they weren't when they're buying bonds you're intervening in the market so if you take a look at how this is acting you're actually trading up on the news if we drill into earnings and take a look here at how they're doing and they raised a little bit on the revenue side but they beat on the earning side so that's really kind of what we're looking for we're recording this before the conference call just FYI so we're in this range we're unable to break that 22 we look like we're going to get back above the 12. I think we look okay we'll see how this plays out this is driving the socks over 500. and again it's all the same soup right we're pulling back and then we're clearing these levels some of these stocks are getting back over key levels and sectors are getting back over key levels some are not and we have to watch that you know the one thing that I kept saying today and I always watch my verbiage were struggling we're struggling to get through this we're struggling for uh Nvidia to once a gap filled right like this was a really very simple trade this morning it was just silly the way that it dropped but oh we can show it on this chart actually be cleaner but if you look at this the way that they dropped this today was just absolutely silly on this news but you know you just have a cat in a Hot Tin Roof right now as far as Traders and you can kind of take a look at this and see what's going on let me just pull that up and you can see what I mean here so you see that little move off the open straight down then we rallied this is a pretty simple trade and then all you did was just go to the Gap fill and by go to the Gap fill all we did was just here I'll show you always want to Mark these off exactly where you were the previous day right you always want to go to those closes and see how you act when you get up there because that's where the people could sell before the news had right and there they are getting out right kind of near that high of that 11 o'clock we just talked about so overall I think you're okay here but we're gonna have to see how this plays out tomorrow you're starting to see a little bit of a pattern but show you this and we're going to kind of see if this holds water but it's kind of in here but not a 100 percent right you're starting to see this right here okay so from this little part up here this way quick would be price rejection you're kind of wedging in here that's not ideal that's not really what I want to say I'd like to see more of a base and then breaking out but what this does do is it gives me another inflection point in here to watch so I'm constantly looking for different inflection points that I can go off of and this is definitely one of them that I'd be paying attention to especially right in here I really want to pay attention to how we act here and that's one of the core reasons that when you start looking at these it really makes a big difference right so I don't want to be breaking that level that's definitely something that I want to hold that 22 and if I start to break it I might become a little concerned there but what you want to note is you want to know what stayed up on the day what didn't stay up on the day and so you can see very clearly here snow tried all day to stay up I felt like we were going to rotate into software and then they swept the legs out of software but I'm not crazy when you don't finish 50 up on the bar right I'm just not crazy about that means you had sellers all in here meaning these people that were in here they decided to get out I I really don't want to see that now this makes a lot of sense because you just had that doji yesterday you had a massive sell the day before so you have some reasons why some people are going to want to get out of this but that said I would want to try to stay with this now you saw some of these other names breaking out today this firm tiger came out and put a 500 Target price on MDB I don't know anything about them I've been waiting waiting for this to break and then it broke and moved within you know a moment but I have the same kind of thing going on here that I'm I'm just not you know I'm just not crazy about these kinds of moves where I'm right there and I can't stay 50 up on those bars that's very bothersome to me and it means that you had in that range you had more sellers than buyers even though you're up I don't want to see that now that could be GDP tomorrow that could be end of the quarter a lot of traders that were I was talking to are just or just basically like you know what I'm going to give it a couple days here we should just talk about the cues sitting at 22 as well they need to hold in here we tried to break out today we did make the higher high which is nice and we'll see what comes tomorrow GDP will drive the opening very very clearly you are watching Tesla try to push two and I would strongly suggest you whether you use a 20 or a 22 I would strongly suggest you watch how they are acting the biggest takeaway that I could tell you for me and looking at all of this is let me show it to you this way it'll just be cleaner I keep watching these levels and we keep rejecting these levels and all these different names and all these different sectors and I don't want to keep doing that right eventually that means that there's too much supply for the demand that we currently have and that will lead to a possibly lower pricing and I think that could happen here but for us what we have to do is just focus on you know the core issues now you always are going to have these outliers today this was a very easy trade this was nerv something we bought in the alpha Chasers Community down here right like literally right off the open I'll just walk you through it very quickly it essentially was a pipe private investment public company and what that means is that someone gets a private equity share in that form right for in the company now what's nice about these pipes if you're an investor and you can get into them is the fact that they give you warrants warrants are the equivalent of a private option okay it's a call option so this was done and let's go back and take a look at this on the hourly so if you look at a secondary how many times have you seen a secondary which essentially is what a pipe is close at six and then they're doing the secondary at ten dollars well that's where they price this pipe that's not usually where you price a pipe you price a pipe somewhere down here like five bucks four and a half dollars plus a kicker of the warrants right because they need to raise money and they can't raise money any other way therefore they are starved for the money well this decided to come out four dollars higher and they were over subscribed so all of a sudden what happens is everyone that thought that they had a you know all the Time in the World to buy this just realize that there's so much demand out there that they're selling this at ten dollars well now they're selling it at ten dollars so for us just being Traders it was really very simple to look at this and go okay well we know that this has got to go higher because if you couldn't get it at ten dollars and now you realize that you're not going to get the stock you're not going to get the warrants you're going to go out there and buy so we bought it off the open it gave us a couple like fake outs but you never had a follow through on the fake out here off that opening price you never really had that break follow through right I always kind of look for something there especially those smaller guys they usually play with you and then they just ripped it and the rest is history then he went on CNBC and here we are now the thing about these names that usually happens is they want to hedge the pipe right so they want to hedge the private Equity piece which is the tent when you're at 10 bucks and the reason they want to hedge it is because they have a free trade with the warrants so if you hedge out the stock if you take a look at like where 10 is roughly right here they hedge out the stock by shorting stock against the private investment and then they just have the warrants for free and then they just sit with the warrants and they see how the trade goes and they trade around it and go from there so I don't know how much more this has I would just say that from this range understand that they did a secondary that was so oversubscribed that they priced it about four dollars higher than where this closed okay and this is the outcome and what happened today so this was a fairly simple trade that's it

Channel: Arete Trading

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Keywords: stock market technical analysis, stock market analysis, sp500 crash, sp500 technical analysis today, sp500 technical analysis, stock market for beginners, market technical analysis, technical analysis, stock market correction, stock market crash 2020, stock market 2020, 2020 crash, economic recession, recession 2020, stock market recession, 2020 crash market, 2020 crash prediction, sp500 forecast, bull trap, bear market, 2020 recession, Arete trading, Sp500, SP500, S&P500

Id: 5nv5jcOOCCQ

Length: 17min 31sec (1051 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 28 2023