By the year 2030, one person will have
to work to support one person. Will the young people's backs bend? They will break. Is there a way to survive
the population decline? Does that really work? What should we do to make it happen? I am Kim Tae-yoo, a professor of Industrial
Engineering at Seoul National University. I am a scholar studying civilization history. [Chapter 1: Low Birthrate and Aging Society:
Are we doing well now?] Over the past 17 years, we have
invested an enormous amount of 380 trillion won of tax into addressing
the low birthrate and aging society. But what were the results? Currently, the total fertility rate has dropped to 0.78. Our policies to increase the
birth rate in Korea have failed. And those who criticize have not proposed any new alternatives. Therefore, I believe it is time to reexamine what the problem is and start discussion again. [Chapter 2: The Essence of the Population Problem] So, what is the essence of the
population problem? The future image of Korea that
we want to pass down to our descendants. Will it be a country with a
population of over 100 million? No, it is not. Maintaining the current population density is also not the goal. There are currently 14 countries in the world
with a population of over 100 million. Among them, only the U.S. and
Japan are advanced countries. However, until now our policy efforts have
been solely focused on increasing the birth rate. Now, it is crucial to concurrently pursue a macroscopic and civilizational approach to the issue. In the past, in agrarian societies,
infant mortality rates were extremely high. To adapt and survive in this world we evolved to give birth to more
children than necessary. But with the Industrial Revolution improved nutrition, and the eradication of diseases, the population explosion occurred. The current global population is approximately 8 billion, If this population doubles humanity will face extinction for no reason. Therefore, in order for current humanity to adapt and respond we are reducing the birth rate. This is a civilizational mega-trend and an irreversible course. The low birth rate problem in our country is a result of
excessive competition and economic issues. Over the past 30 years, South Korea's economic growth rate has been experiencing a sustained decline. According to a study by Professor Easterlin
on the birth rate, statistically couples tend to have a higher number of children when their economic situation improves during their growth and adolescent years. On the other hand, couples who face worsening economic conditions tend not to have children. Why were the previous generations able to do so? Because they experienced a period when
the national income was $100 in their adolescence and saw it grow to the $1,000 range. They could have confidence that
their children would live in an era of a national income of $10,000. A better tomorrow than today is happiness, while a worse tomorrow is unhappiness. That is why the younger generation today is
unhappy in an era of a national income of $30,000. Now, young people no longer feel they can pass on a brighter future. The declining birth rate is a manifestation of the sense of responsibility to raise children in better situations. So, the problem lies in economic growth. The problem is excessive competition. However, the population pyramid
changes from a pyramid-shaped triangle to an inverted pyramid shape And then over time, as many people pass away it stabilizes into a box shape. However, the problem is that before it stabilizes, we will face 'the valley of death'
in an inverted pyramid state. If the number of working
young generations is small while the number of dependent
elderly generations is large this society will collapse. This is called dependency ratio. However, until 1999, three people worked to support one person. But by the year 2030, one person will have to work
to support one person. Will the young people's backs bend? No. They will break. This is our reality. Now is the time to shift
from efforts to improve the birth rate alone to improving the dependency ratio. Of course, we still need
to continue the existing pro-birth policies. However, if we allocate
only 20% of our efforts to improving the dependency ratio according to Pareto's law,
commonly known as the 20:80 rule, we can solve 80% of the low birth rate
and aging population problem. [Chapter 3: Measures to overcome
the valley of death] Now, then, is there a way to survive
beyond the valley of death in the process of population decline? Of course, there is. One is the Fourth Industrial Revolution,
and the other is the two-crop society. ChatGPT is here, and AI robots are
now deeply embedded in our daily lives. Now, the world is undergoing transformation at a high speed
due to the Fourth Industrial Revolution. But, for all of you, does this the Fourth Industrial Revolution
really resonate with you yet? The reason is that technological advancements, economic development,
and societal progress resulting from industrial revolutions initially have very low growth rates. In fact, during the era of the Third Industrial Revolution, when computers and the internet first emerged, we couldn't truly feel
the impact on economic growth. Professors Robert Solow from MIT,
who received the Nobel Prize, and Gordon from Northwestern University, talked about the productivity paradox of computers. "They have become widely accessible in the world, but productivity hasn't improved at all!"
They said such things. However, as time goes on and
the acceleration intensifies, the growth rate becomes
increasingly rapid. We have now surpassed
the era of the Third Industrial Revolution and are at the early stage of
the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Before the tangible effects become visible There is a misconception that
the Fourth Industrial Revolution cannot solve the problems. However, just because it's the
Fourth Industrial Revolution, will all problems be solved?
No, it doesn't. It's because we lack talent in our country. So, what should we do? To achieve that, we need to transition to
a two-crop society. Now, what exactly is
a two-crop society? It's a time when one young person has
to work to support one elderly person. This is the valley of death The idea of one person supporting another means that two people are supporting two others. Among the supported individuals, there is the relatively young middle-aged group (ages 55 to 74) and the elderly group (ages 75 and above). If we convert this middle-aged group
into the economically active population, working together with the young people, we can return to a time when
three people work to support one person. At this time, many people can easily
consider extending the retirement age. However, in this rapidly changing society The average age of workers beyond their mid-40s undermines international competitiveness. Not only that, it immediately leads to youth unemployment. There is no young person
who welcomes the idea of extending the retirement age. In essence, a two-crop society is
a division of labor between generations. In developmental psychology, young people aged 20-40
have very high fluid intelligence. In contrast, individuals aged 50
and above have accumulated extensive experience and expertise over a long period, resulting in high crystallized intelligence. Jobs that utilize physical abilities and fluid intelligence involve
creativity, innovation, conceptual design, fashion, design,
spatial reasoning, and mathematical calculations. I refer to these jobs as
"one-crop" occupations. On the other hand, jobs that rely on experience,
expertise, and crystallized intelligence which include specialized services,
management, administration, and office work, relying on empathy,
inclusiveness, and patience are referred to as "two-crop". If a person works diligently in
a one-crop occupation while young, achieves remarkable success, but experiences a decline in fluid intelligence and can no longer achieve success in that field, they can transition to a two-crop occupation. In this new field,
they can once again utilize their crystallized intelligence and achieve the pinnacle of success in life. In the past, people in Korea lived well in a one-crop society where they worked from the age of 25 to 55. They used a portion of their earnings
to support their children and the remaining portion
for their retirement expenses. However, with increased life expectancy, they faced a shortage of retirement funds leading to a lack of investment resources
for the country's future. Now, by transitioning to two-crop occupations and working from the age of 55 to 75
for an additional 20 years the surplus created in society
and the increased lifelong income can contribute to the successful future of the country
in the fourth industrial revolution, while individuals can enjoy a prosperous retirement When the dependent elderly
shift to working elderly, it significantly reduces the societal burden
on the younger generation This is about helping the young generation. And working elderly can enjoy
a healthy retirement. [Chapter 4: Can the Two-crop Society Succeed?] So, can the two-crop society really succeed? Is it truly possible? There are people who ask these questions. Yes, it can. The principles I am discussing now are based on the same principles that led to the Han River Miracle in the past. At that time, most Koreans were engaged in agriculture. Agriculture is an industry where
economic growth rate is decreasing. Manufacturing, on the other hand, is an
industry with increasing economic growth rate. Therefore, young people engaged in agriculture were sent to places like Masan Export Processing Zone,
Yeosu Chemical Complex, and Saemaul factories. As a result, the Korean economy experienced
remarkable development. But did Korean agriculture fail? No, it did not. Because agriculture requires accumulated
experience and expertise, which is crystallized intelligence. And with the advancement of manufacturing all facilities and materials for farming,
including mechanization, flowed into rural areas It was after the young
people left the countryside that rice production became
self-sufficient for the first time. Why is this? It is the success achieved through the division of
crystallized intelligence and fluid intelligence. Now, what about the fourth industrial revolution? However, many young individuals in South Korea,
who are abundant in fluid intelligence, are engaged in two-crop occupation similar to past agriculture. So, if we can encourage these young individuals to transition to one-crop occupations they will diligently conduct research, make efforts to maximize value creation, and succeed in the fourth industrial revolution. Then, as young people transition out of two-crop industries, older individuals will be employed in their place. As a result, a two-crop industries will also develop. One simple example is that as our society progresses with aging, our society is in desperate need of filling
welfare-related public servant positions. However, these welfare public servants are
not a one-crop occupations, but a two-crop occupations. Women who have experienced
career interruptions due to raising children and retirees who have supported their families can excel in these welfare positions. The government should support young people to pursue careers in the field of the fourth industrial revolution and the welfare public servant positions to be filled by retirees or job discontinued women in the future can be an example of intergenerational division of labor. By improving the dependency ratio,
we can overcome the crisis and move towards the future to
become an advanced country. Now, what should the government do? The government should provide incentives for the younger generation to enter
the fourth industrial revolution and create opportunities for the elderly to
demonstrate their abilities in a two-crop occupations after
completing one-crop occupations. What should companies do? Companies should actively support
the two-crop education of their employees to ensure that they can fully utilize their abilities in the field and
transition to two-crop occupations, thereby maintaining a young ecosystem and dynamic technological
innovation capabilities of themselves too. Then, what should individuals do? Working for 30 years alone is not
enough to sustain a life for 100 years. You need to work for 50 years to
comfortably live for 100 years. While working hard at your job,
utilize your leisure time to prepare, study, and receive education
for a two-crop occupations in collaboration with the company. The time for continually
raising issues has passed. Now is the time for
action and implementation. If you don't take the initiative no one else will. Planned and produced by SNU Communication Team
