Silver Price Update - August 22, 2019 + Silver Breakout

ladies and gentlemen Christopher Aaron here it is August 22nd 2019 welcome back I'm here in the I gold studios it is a pleasure to be back it has been several weeks since the last video there been a number of things going on for me but I'm glad to be here and I'm glad you are here as well and why am i excited about this video it's because when we look at the silver market specifically we are seeing an important trend break in the silver market now you know me you know that I'm not one that is prone to hyperbole after all we do see in this industry individuals claiming that gold and silver are about to skyrocket every week and they've been saying the same thing for the last 10 years and so doesn't that get a little bit old after a while when we see that actually not happening but that's not what I'm saying I'm saying that we see an important trend break and I want to show you the ramifications for that because I do suspect that it means higher prices coming ahead although I am not 100% convinced that this is the start of a new bull market let's take a look now the focus of this channel if you are new is a form of technical analysis and we do this technical analysis by focusing on price and price alone so what am I talking about this you know price and price alone we analyze price and if you actually boil it down and think about what is most important to you as an investor whether it's gold or silver or the mining stocks or whether it's anything else the value of the dollar stock market what else matters more than the actual price and what is going to happen to the price so this form of analysis attempts to admit that I mean yes the coins can be buta full and yes there are important factors about personal sovereignty and about having some security outside of the banking system I completely agree but if the price was not going to move in our direction and if it was going to move lower let's say for many years I'd say 99% of people wouldn't care about those fundamentals so we study price because we admit that we cannot know all of the fundamentals as human beings it is impossible what can we know is what are the trends in the actual price of the commodity and when do those trends change and so when we look at silver from 2001 through the present let's call this this is almost a 20-year chart now 2001 through the present and will bring up this handy key because if you're new to this please pause this video right now and study this key what everything means here and you will understand this system it can look like a lot compared to certain forms of analysis it can also look quite simple compared to certain forms of analysis what I have found is that the simplest forms of technical analysis focusing on price tend to be much more powerful than all those derivative forms moving averages and MACD and various momentum indicators we focus on price foremost here now the most important thing that is happening to pay attention to in the silver market is this long term magenta trend okay so focus your eyes here on the magenta and go all the way back to 2003 when silver was five dollars an ounce and notice a silver started to begin to move higher you know five 525 550 and then notice this acceleration it look like silver is really getting ready to move up to $8.00 an ounce but it fell right back and notice how it found support just about 20 cents above this trend that it began a year prior and so we had a market that gyrated within twenty to fifty cents above a new trend line and it looks like in 2005 and especially in 2008 when silver got to $20 an ounce it looks like this market was really ready to take off for the moon but what happened the crash of 2008 silver fell by 60% in the crash of 2008 by the way I'm going to interject a a thought here for you if you're one of these people who thinks or wants the stock market to crash so that silver can skyrocket I will tell you silver has an extremely poor track record of how well it does during stock market crashes the last major one of course being right here 2008 silver fell just as much as the Dow so be careful what you wish for sometimes when does silver do best after the stock market stops crashing and then silver tends to receive the inflationary benefit after that but notice how during that crash of 2008 when silver fell by 60% it bottomed right at this same trend line right here I mean isn't that incredible you know going all the way back five years now after the run to $50 an ounce and the 75 percent drawdown into 2015 where did silver bottom once again on this exact same trendline if you're trying to tell me that this is random you know that all these major collapses and surges and collapses could be traced back to this one trend line I've got some absolutely pristine oceanfront property that I think you should take a look at it's located in the beautiful state of Nebraska so we bottomed here in 2015 surging notice how the flash crash in 2017 touched this line broke below it by about 24 hours now a critical thing happened here in 2018 the market finally broke the long-term trend line it was a 15 year trend for good broke down notice negated on the retest right here but something very interesting is happening exactly now as we speak I think you should pay attention to this if you are investing in silver or you're thinking about investing in silver because they think the technical action that we're seeing right now is setting the stage for a significant move I will say significant at this point now some of you may be saying when you're looking at some of the trend lines here this is just a side note oh well you you forgot to draw in the trend line from the absolute peak you've made that point before Chris you forgot to draw that well here it is for you I just left it off because I didn't want to confuse the chart and so you can see that trend line you can see secondary trend lines you can see the trend line from the 2016 peak I just left those off because I'm trying to focus on the most prescient lines that were looking at at this exact moment okay so let's bring it right back here the important point that we're talking about is the recovery of this 15-year trend line and the simultaneous breaking of this blue notice the blue primary trend this blue downtrend here basically happening within two weeks of each other these lines were very close to one another we've broken both of those trends now the closest technically speaking the closest trend break that we've seen to this one going back for the last several years was right here right in the beginning of 2016 when we broke this terminal wedge and you can go back to the archives of this channel by the way February of 2016 and you'll see we were talking about that at exactly that point and it doesn't mean that silver skyrocketed immediately but we certainly had a pretty nice move that was setting up for the next five months here and remember some of these silver miners rose by two hundred three hundred percent even in the last four or five months of this move so here we are again at a very similar Junction having recovered this long-term trend which is incredibly significant now let us zoom this in to just the last three years or so and we'll see what's happening with a more more fine-tooth comb okay so there was that long term trend line we were talking about the the magenta trend right here notice so remember this was coming all the way back from 2003 bottoms bottom broke down rejected and here we are we've broken through the primary downtrend which began all the way at the 2017 peak and this trend from 2003 has been recovered which is very very constructive for this market as someone who approaches this from a technical basis and you know me guys I was not acting constructive on silver over the last year why am i acting constructive on it now is because we've finally seen this downtrend break okay now I can hear some people saying and we'll zoom it back out in a minute but I can hear some people saying well you missed the bottom and it's like yeah I may have missed the absolute bottom but think about this in a perspective for a moment okay we had silver bottom at 1450 here and now we're at 1705 I started buying after I saw this downtrend line break here in the low 16 so if I missed a dollar and a half and let's say this move is going to go to 21 or 25 or can we imagine it even goes to 50 I don't mind missing the first dollar and a half the way that you think about that if you're a technical based investor or trader the way that you think about the fact that you had to pay a slightly higher price in the bottom is that this was a business expense nothing more and nothing less what was it a business expense of it was a business expense of assurance of the assurance that this downtrend was not going to continue and for example silver was going to round lower down to 12 or 11 ten because that very well could have happened if sellers had showed up here and we had rounded over through the later part of this year it would have been very wise and so one of the things that one admits from a technical basis is that you can't know the full future no one knows the future what can we know we can see when significant trends are broken and the confluences of significant trends are broken and then we can make decisions based on that so here we are back above the long term rising trend what are some first targets for silver and I will say first target only here's how we're going to do this we have a confluence of resistance that silver should be approaching now over the next several weeks perhaps one to two months and that is going to be shown to you by the following levels notice the amplitude of the consolidation here below this breakdown point and the amplitude back up to this the rejection point okay this was a two dollar and thirty-six cent amplitude we add that on to the breakout point here and we get a target up here just above $18.50 so this is a consolidation amplitude bro added on to the breakout point so that gives us one target notice how that target corresponds almost precisely with these resistance levels going back to 2017 and 2016 just in this 18 upper 1840s to 1860s region notice that so these peaks right here corresponding to an independently derived target up here aha there is one more level that corresponds with it notice remember I talked about these Fibonacci retracements notice this one right here the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline so this entire decline if we recover that 61.8% corresponds right here just below 1850 so we have three at least three independently derived targets that give us a confluence in this 1852 1860 region and so this becomes an official target in my book this is what I am looking at as a technical based analyst would I invest a hundred percent of my money on this expectation alone of course not you never want to do that with a hundred percent over your capital no matter how no matter how assured you are or how much you think that an outcome is going to happen but we are talking about probabilities and this becomes an official expectation this target right here in the 1850 region looks very good for a first target only so wouldn't it be interesting if here we are at 1705 wouldn't it be interesting if this market were to consolidate perhaps retest this broken trendline and then start to rise again especially off of this new short-term trend line that began at the recent bottom in May and that this market rounds its way back up to 1850 or 1860 within the next couple of months this is what I expect so I think there will be some nice moves from the trading standpoint I think there will be some nice gains coming in the silver mining sector just to let you know based on this move alone now let's zoom it back out that only gets us right up to here and the big picture of things what happens after that well again I can't predict the future but I can give you some probabilities and I would say I suspect that the behavior around 1850 will be very telling for us if silver blows through 1850 like there's no resistance there at all maybe it only pauses there for a couple of weeks consolidates and keeps moving higher the next set of targets comes in right here 21:25 plus or minus a few cents and of course this corresponds exactly with the 2016 peak this will be significant resistance because there were a lot of people who bought silver in here who will be looking to sell their silver when we get back here within the next three to six months if silver can take out 21/25 so notice we do lot of if-then statements this is how I approach the markets I like if-then statements I don't like to have to give you know a pie-in-the-sky target for 15 years down the road I like to take the markets in chunks it just feels better to me if we can break $21.25 there is an extremely strong confluence of resistance right here black black and gray representing this peak the broken support going all the way back from 2011 you can see the multiple attempts here and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of this entire decline that 38.2 all of these levels coming in here right between 25 and 26 50 or so the 38.2 slightly higher just above 27 but let's call it 25 to 26 to use some round numbers this would be my highest expectation for silver on the present surge that we are seeing and it certainly will not happen in a straight line there will be some Corrections along the way this would be my highest expectation and I would say that based on what I'm seeing in the market now here's where I'm going to disagree with probably a lot of the other silver analysts who you will see out there is that I believe based on the signals that we are observing now in several cross asset comparisons the gold to silver ratio and we study the behavior of the mining complex when we study the behavior of the US dollar in the stock market it looks to me like if silver gets up to one of these targets this will represent an important multi-year peak and that one would be wise to take profits or a protective action depending on their situation perhaps within the next six to 12 to 18 months depending on how quickly the silver market moves so notice I am skeptical that this is the of a sustainable market but it does look very constructive for an intermediate term surge higher over the next 6 to 18 months I suggest you get ready to capture that move it could be quite dramatic it could happen relatively quickly you know silver can move a few dollars in just a few weeks and it's something like that that I think is setting up here so let's get ready for that I want to remind you if you're new to this channel make sure you hit that red subscribe button somewhere down there on the channel so you'll receive all the latest videos I do want to let you know we have bought some silver miners here in our portfolio over just the last few weeks if you would like to learn exactly which silver miners we are buying and all the research that goes into those decisions as well as to see Premium Members Only videos just like this there is a premium service called precious metals intelligence which comes out once a week and all that information is provided for you right there exactly the trades and the investments that we are making and I will just tell you that this weekend coming up is our special special monthly video update it is the same format that you see right now but much more in-depth we will also be covering gold we will be covering the gold miners the silver miners we will be covering the bond market in the US dollar and we will be looking at gold in foreign currencies such as the British Pound the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar so all that is coming this weekend you can find more about that on the home page finally I just want to let you know that if you're an individual and you're new to the precious metals and you just feel a little bit overwhelmed there's a lot of information out there and you just want to speak to someone that's someone being me I do consultations with individuals I approach this from an independent standpoint I don't take any fees from any of the companies any of the mining companies or any of the ETF's that we profile I simply look out for the best interest of individual subscribers such as yourself so I work with beginners all the way to advanced trainers who are looking to diversify large portfolios within the precious metals sector you can find more about that on the consultations tab on the home page as well so once again look at this move and silver setting up we were talking about this remember back to that July 11th video on the channel it was the last time that we talked about silver we were talking about some of the historical comparisons and it looks like from a technical basis now on the intermediate-term charts we can see evidence that silver is getting ready for some kind of a move like that the near-simultaneous break of that long term rising trend the recovery of that as well as the break of the primary two and a half year downtrend that blue line that's a fairly significant signal you don't see a two and a half-year downtrend broken every other week like I said the last time we had something like that was the beginning of 2016 and remember that surge that developed you know silver moved almost $7 higher in the first six months of 2016 so something like that could be setting up right now will it be the beginning of a new bull market hmm we will look at that in a new video coming soon thank you for tuning in

Channel: iGold Advisor

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Keywords: fed, federal reserve, powell, gold, silver, price, price crash, forecast, update, prediction, coins, bullion, trading, day trading, etf, leverage, yellen, trump, euro, ecb, stock market, stocks, crash, dollar, currencies, commodities, commodity, love, war, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, ethereum, crypto, drones, oil, natural gas, platinum, palladium

Id: VugMvGgqH6I

Length: 21min 37sec (1297 seconds)

Published: Thu Aug 22 2019