SATTA BAZAR and Stock Markets

hi hi this is PR Sund welcome to this special episode where I'm going to talk about s Bazar the first now the Talk of the Town is Parliament election usually most of the people they talk about the election outcome who will win NDA will win or India will win no that happens but we mostly from stock market we just don't care about it but now even in stock market everybody is talking about Parliament election why simple you look at the markets as of yesterday as of yesterday us markets continuously moving higher for eight straight trading sessions eight trading sessions continuous moving higher in us Europe Germany France UK they all closed at 52 week high on Friday but what happened to our market for nine straight days you know the B was down our five or six straight trading sessions Nifty was down the bank Nifty is down by about 2,500 points that's roughly about 5% and many front line stocks have fallen about 5 to 10% midcaps and small caps have fallen probably even more so everybody is wondering why the market is falling in the month of March Market fell because of SE directive on midcap and small cap mutual funds April month markets fell because of macious tax issue but may month why it is falling and nobody has the answer so now everyone is assuming that you know markets are falling because of parliament election why the market should fall because of parliament election as I always say no stock market does not bother who rule the country if BJP rules also Market will go higher and Congress rules also the markets will go higher but the problem will come only when there is a possibility of a hung Parliament so that is the issue now now when people are uncertain about the parliament election outcome of course definitely Parliament election outcome is totally uh uncertain there is no doubt about it you know I'm just giving an example it will be little bit easier to predict a state election say for example if Tamil Nadu it's a state full of Tamil speaking people you know so you talk to few people you know you get the feeling okay that feeling you can extrapolate because you know how a Tamil speaking guy thinking in Chennai there is every possibility the same way the Tamil speaking guy in kbur or you know tii or mad is also likely to think the same way but that cannot be true for a national election how a Tamil speaking guy in Tamil Nadu how Punjabi speaking guy in Punjab how uh Hindi speaking guy in utar Pradesh how Bengali speaking guy in West Bengal will be thinking alike no that's not possible so Parliament election results is more difficult to predict than the state elections because you know it's a different uh group different language right different states so now in order to predict the election results people are looking at sat basa so sat basa no betting sat Bazar means you know Hindi SATA means betting so it's a betting Bazar betting is actually illegal in India but despite that you know it goes on and Cricket betting happens uh elction betting happens though it is illegal there is a small town called pel in P Rajasthan so that is the place where a lot of betting happens and as per some analyst so in the past so you know the betting it was very very accurate then most of the opinion polls and exit polls conducted by a large media houses so this is what the history says so therefore now everybody is focusing on this f s first let me explain to you how the S Bazar works I'll just give an example of a cricket then I will come back to uh elections Parliament elections let us say two countries are playing Cricket let us say India and Pakistan playing Cricket there will be some people who feel that you know India will win and some people will feel that Pakistan will win so they will do them betting so they'll be one person called booki you know so he will be taking the beds so all the people who go they say India will win they will pay money all the people will go and they will say Pakistan will win they'll pay him the money so he will take a very small commission so assume that for the time being for the sake of argument the no commission right so then what he will do he will see how much money has come saying that India will win let us say 10 lakh Rupees has come by saying that India will win 5 lakh rupees has come by saying Pakistan will win so totally collected 15 lakh 10 lakh India win 5 lakh Pakistan win so he's collecting 15 lakhs suppose India wins he will return the entire 15 lakh to those people so the betting amount came is 10 lakh now he will be returning 15 lakh so that means if you bet that India will win if you bet one rupe you will receive 1 rup 50 P if you bet 10 rupes you will re only 15 rupees on the other if suppose Pakistan wins collected only 5 lakh from people Pakistan wi now the entire 15 lakh will be returned so that means if somebody who bet that Pakistan will win if you bet one rupee if Pakistan wins he will get three rupees so the more people who bet that India will win so the risk reward ratio will change right so if suppose India will win People BET 10 lakh Pakistan will win also People BET 10 lakh that means it's exactly 1 is to one so if India wins you know these people will get for every one rupe paid they will get two rupees Pakistan also they'll get one so if that one is to one if you bet one rupe if you're getting 2 rupe one is to one that that means the probability of that event is 50% but in the first example India win 10 lakh Pakistan win 5 lakh so that means the probability of India winning is very high that's why you know even India wins you know you are not going to get more money for one rupe you paid you will get only 1 rupe 50 P Okay then if Pakistan wins they'll get three rupees 1 is to three but that means the probability of you know Pakistan winning is less so when the less likely event happens you get more reward more likely event happens you get the less reward okay now let us come back to this Parliament election results earlier there was a report you know so the people were betting in favor of BJP you know the things were more favor able to BJP earlier they were betting uh BJP Coalition getting about 400 seats now about 10 days before the data I'm saying the last few days data I could not get so 10 days before data says that you know uh BJP winning 300 seats it's not BJP I think it's a BJP Coalition 300 seats so that's a betting happening that betting is 1 is to one which means that if you say BJP will get 300 seats if you pay one rupee if BJP gets 300 seats he will get 2 rupes back same thing opposite if you say BJP will not win 300 seats if you bet one rupee if BJP really not winning 300 points 300 MPS you will get back 2 rupees so the risk reward is 1 is to one so when the risk reward is 1 is to one so that means that okay the probability of that happening is 50/50 that is where the stock market is wor it stock market will not worry if it is 8020 or 2080 all right because you know if 8020 means 100% sure BJP will win if 2080 100% sure BJP will lose that means the Congress will win so but now the stock market is worried because it is coming around 50/50 so 50/50 means is total uncertainty there is a possibility of a h Parliament but however you know so there are uh many many things that you have to take into consideration people just for fun they say there are three types of Lies small lies big lies and then start States when you get a data you know so there are you know the data can be you know misleading sometimes okay number one I tell you number one election results is based on 100 CR people voting in the election but this set how many people do you think will be involved in the set Bazar maybe 1 lakh maybe 2 lakh maybe 10 lakh or maybe even one CR still you know it is less than 1% of the actual ERS so then how this one lakh people thinking how the 100 CR people will be thinking it can be different just now I said how a person thinking in Tamil Nadu how a person thinking in Punjab and West Bengal and utar Pradesh they may be different so that is one thing second thing in Parliament election number of whats matters right so you know if there's a 10 lakh v p if somebody's getting more than 5 lakh V he will be winning but in sat B it's not like that I'm just giving an example right here I said The Total Money received Total Money received is different from total number of people betting if suppose everybody is betting one rupee uh then the story is different if uh 10 lakh rupes come means 10 lakh people are saying India will win 5 lakh people you know saying Pakistan will win that 5 lak rupees but there is every possibility you know 5 lakh people may be betting one rupee by saying Pakistan will win but there may be only one person who is betting the 10 lakh Rupees saying that India will win if you see the amount amount is bigger for India 15 lakh rupees sorry 10 lakh Rupees pistan only 5 lakh rupes the amount is big but amount is Big it does not mean that the number of people is Big there's a possibility that this may be 5 lakh people this may be only 1 person so maybe some Ultra rich people maybe can do some kind of a betting with lacks of rupees or crores of rupees but that cannot be taken as a representation from so many people so setup as you know functions based on the money not based on the number of people whereas in the actual polling actual election is a number of people matters not the amount of money so there is a second possible operation and the third thing of course you know any speculation can go wrong any exit pole can go wrong any opinion poll can go wrong so the pel also can go wrong right so uh to submit okay definitely uh the BJP fortunes are you know uh going down but again one more very very important issue here the betting of 1 is to one is based on 300 seats okay but if it is based on 270 seats then you know the risk is very high but this betting is based on 300 seats say for example okay I bet that BJP will not get 300 seats if tomorrow BJP gets 280 seats still I win but still it will be the BJP which will be forming the government because BJP needs only 272 seats it does not need 300 seats to form a government so there is a possibility that the people who are bitting against the BJP will win but still the BJP will form the government that's because right now the S Bazar is not trading based on 272 seats it is trading at based on 300 seats so that is totally two different things so uh just like everybody's worried about the parliament election result so I also started watching the SAT Bazar but unfortunately when I go to Google and type most of the Articles they are coming in Hindi only uh I can uh understand Hindi when somebody speaking but I cannot read Hindi so that's a drawback so uh simply speaking uh the uncertainty is surely rising in stock market otherwise you know when entire Global markets doing very well why we have to keep on falling so definitely it is time to be very very cautious number one if you're an ultra conservative investor okay keep the position zero until the parliament election and then number two if you're a already having some portfolio do the portfolio hedging properly in fact about one or two weeks before I came out with a video saying that you know you buy a put option sell a 25,000 call option to finance that those people who have done they are totally safe from this kind of a fall right so do the proper heding and of course right if you are as good as a gamblers are betting in the F uh seter so you can also take positions based on that uh you so it's better to be safe than sorry so that's my view I hope you enjoyed watching this video thank you for watching

Channel: P R Sundar

Views: 64,482

Keywords: p r sundar, pr sundar, pre market, pre market report, pre-market report, market preview, preview market, indian market, indian stock market, stock market preview

Id: eEqMZuShSXs

Length: 17min 8sec (1028 seconds)

Published: Sat May 11 2024