Sam Seiden: Odds Enhancers To Increase Your Odds

good to see everybody thanks for coming so we last a number of webinars I think I've held here hosts held here at FX Street we've gone over the live markets and set up some trading opportunities and things like that we've applied our course supply and demand strategy looking you know where to see where banks and institutions are buying and selling so you can - today we're going to kind of supercharge all that and spend some time going over what we call it online training academy the odds enhancers we'll go over a few of these and then I'm chubby plenty of time at the end to go go over the live market and start to apply what you're learning here today's webinar it's sponsored by you trade FX so thanks to you trade FX they are sponsoring today's webinar and let's begin so first off if you don't have my email address there it is I was responding to some epic Street emails this morning I was noticing some people are sending in some really good charts they're really starting to get it which is a great thing to see so nice job there so the odds enhancers what these do are this is a checklist so first off there's a number of these and I I don't even know if they'll be able to go over half of them today but there's there's a bunch of these and and with these two they help out with two things you know when it comes to the whole supply-demand strategy and identifying level supply and demand levels the two most important things are structure and location first of all where is price in the larger time frame supply and demand curve that's location that tells us if we should be a buyer or seller second is structure the structure of the level itself and that's important that tells us you know are there is there a lot of institution demand here or bank supply or what-have-you who's buying and selling how much are they buying and selling that's what the odds and answers help us help us answer okay and you'll kind of see how this goes so remember when looking at price charts and I've said this before the price charts that we look at today in any price chart you can imagine any price chart you can you can access anywhere in the world on any website at the end of the day they show you different versions of the same thing they show you trades that have happened or filled orders because I've said before remember if you're new to this that's what the chart price charts show us is actually the opposite of what we what we need to find if we're going to be a successful short term trader or longer term investor right the charts show it's actually the opposite of what we need to see the chart show us filled orders all the trades that have happened but if you think about it the only thing responsible for prices moving in a market or prices turning in a market are unfilled orders where are the stacks of you know major unfilled buy and sell orders make sense okay so the whole supply demand theory and strategy you know focuses on that where are those orders and where should you be buying and selling the odds and the answers you know help us do that and if and the outside answers are really in the simplest form a checklist okay a checklist and one more little store and then we'll dive in so the you know I was in Dallas Texas not long ago and there's always a bunch of a pilots a lot of American airline pilots in Dallas Texas and they they show up to the events and a lot of these guys tend to do pretty well so I was talking on one time and I said you know what isn't about you guys you tend to pick this up really quick and do pretty well for the most part they said all you know that's what flying is it's a checklist we just follow a checklist that's our life you know our life is a checklist and that's all trading us I said on it you know you're right so that's the world they live in that's the mind so they live and you give them a checklist they can do it and that's what this is keep it nice and simple to a checklist that's really how my brain works to not focusing on okay you know is your you know is the European economy going to be good or bad and and what's Payne looking like and can greet Greece repay their debt and what's really going on and China and all the stuff you know if if the you know the experts and in the and the people that won't live the Central Bank leaders around the world can't figure that out why should we even spend a minute figuring out number one number two it has no bearing on where we should be buying and selling in a market right even if you knew let me ask you this let's say you knew what the Fed was going to do and say it's a great point Mike that's an excellent point I might have to steal that one from me if you don't mind yeah but pilots don't panic and turbulence either that's right they know there's going to be some bumps in the air at the end of the day the plane which is the strategy is built for that not a big deal right so oh one last thing let's say that you and I'm talking to you specifically individually we're the only person in the world that knew exactly what the Fed was going to do and say at the next the next you know FOMC meeting let's say that you knew two weeks ahead of time exactly what they were going to do and say does that guarantee that does that guarantee that you're going to make money on that does that guarantee it no imagine if you knew what was going to come out before it came out right think about that it doesn't guarantee anything okay anyway so I think you get the point so let's focus on these odds enhancers let's dive in and I'll get through as much of this as I can and and you'll see where we're going some are the first two I'm going to go pretty quickly through because these I give you all the time and then going looking at the live charts number one and just so you know if you've never taken a course online Trading Academy you're also getting a little preview of what the course is like this is a couples some slides right out of the course these things are all pretty pretty big lesson so number one how did price leave the level now without in the answers we come up with a nice probability score okay I guess a pilot based on their entire checklist would project which probably clues the flight plan and information from planes in front of them on high whatever here's choppy or not you know once that whole checklist and plan is done they could probably pretty accurately for the most part predict whether it's going to be a smooth flight or a bumpy flight I fly a lot and most of the time they're they're pretty accurate um you know sometimes you know some bumpy air comes up that wasn't expected over the most part they're pretty accurate when they tell the flight attendants to sit down in the middle of a flight it gets really bumpy so number one how did prices leave the level okay notice on the right real quickly you can have a gradual move away from the level or in the middle you can have a stronger move away from the level either with big red candles or big green candles or number three all the way over on the left you can have a gap away from the level out of those three choices which one represents the strongest supply and demand imbalance because that's what we're looking for an imbalance we don't want you know F prices always turning markets at price levels or supply and demand is most out of balance right so the gap represents that that's why it gets a score of two out of two and again the lesson here is like I just said the stronger the move away from an area the more out of balance supply and demand is at the area okay yeah all news is going to do is speed up what was going to happen anyway and that's enhancer number two and again we're going to apply this to the live charts of a few minutes odds and answer number two how much time to probably spend at the level so again for those that are new to this this one's important because this one is exactly opposite of what the trading books say the trading books all say the same thing they say if you're looking for key support resistance levels right those key words support resistance in trading books remember when I mentioned when I see the word supply and demand I'm not referring to the word support resistance so when the books tell us though to look for key support resistance levels they say look for areas on the chart where there was lots of trading act many candles on the screen above average volume and so on right but if you think the logic try I think you're going to find the opposite is true for example at price levels in any market where supply and demand is most out of balance are you going to spend you know are there going to be lots of trades at that level many transactions yeah I'll stock yeah very few remember if you have a price level where you have you know a thousand buyers on one side and you know a thousand on the buy side and 900 on the sell side price is going to spend quite a bit of time there but as soon as the 900th lot is filled you've got 100 on the buy side left no sellers price is going to go up it has to okay but think of another scenario where you have not until a thousand on the buy side and fifty on the sell side how long is price going to stay at that price level not very long right because once the fiftieth the lot is is traded now you've got 950 on the buy side 0 on the sell side price is going to shoot higher pretty quick it's a bigger imbalance so if we all agree with that logic then what does a picture going to look like on a price charges and many candlesticks and a lot of time or very few it's very few the opposite of what the trading books say so be careful with that right so you want to keep the timeframes pretty much relative if you see a I'm reading the chat there Edward and plaid so if you see a chart where you have you know it's just looking at the 30-minute euro all right Lina's 30-minute chart of the euro we've got a supply level right here I know my charts are off I have to turn them back on but they just want I just turn them off right before the session started to make sure the sound was clear but here's a supply level above current price notice very little trading at the level strong drop away from the area and notice the candles like one two three four maybe five or six candles in there at most right very few candles in there okay but if I go to a you know if I go to a 60-minute chart you're going to see half the amount of candles in there there it is but if I go to a you know five in a char you're going to see tons of candles in there right see that but I would say you know if when you find the when you find the level in for example this timeframe here's a 60 minute chart okay I just keep it relative and that that will work out fine in other words if prices come up to this level and turn lower yeah you're probably going to have little five minute demand levels on the way up but I but they're not going to you know but but ultimately price is going to go down through those five minute demand levels before going up through the 60 minute supply level does that make sense if there's a new supply level formed or new demand a 60 minute demand level form close to this 60 minutes supply level on the way up yeah then we're not going to take it Mike I wouldn't worry about that too much because every time I change this time frame which will become candles candles will become wicks you know you can make yourself crazy with that but the one thing you don't want to see like I don't want to see a lot of like I don't want to in this level I'm showing you here I don't want to see a big spike higher with a candle okay I don't want to see that I want to make sure the price could not could not go higher all right let's go back to the lesson otherwise we'll never get get through it right I wouldn't say boy key there is there is a best time frame I would say that the time frame you want to use is you know are you looking to do short-term trading or or stick to the longer-term stuff answer that and then I'll give you the time frames I think would be best for that okay both yeah so what I have I have two separate workspaces set up for that and for the for the long-term stuff I'm just looking at weeklies and dailies and in a 60-minute I'm sorry weekly daily in 180 minute that's it and I'll just scroll through and look at those markets and I'm primarily looking at the daily and weekly when I find an opportunity meaning I see price coming to a fresh level and there's nothing on the other side in the opposing direction then I'll go down to that's when I'll use the 180 minute chart and and just see if I can refine that little level a little bit in other words figure out where the most of the trading took place now you can use a 240 minute chart or 180 it doesn't really matter I suppose you can go down to a 60 if you want I don't okay for the short-term trading you know I would say daily 60 and a little five-minute chart is plenty that way you know where you're adding the big picture from the daily okay you can I don't you can do your curves flagman curve on the 60 and then just take your levels off the five you'll know exactly by the time you get to the five doing that you'll know whether you should be looking for buy setups or sell setups all right so back to this for a moment again look at the scores so the less time prey spends on the level the more out of balance supply and demand is at the level that gets a highest score of two here's a trade that took in the training room made a little bit of money on this is a short-term trade again here Boyk you can see on a 5-minute chart so this was obviously pretty high on the auto screen sorry let me do that here okay good so again less time at the level is better that gets a higher score and then here's an example of a little dated but there's the Euro again notice in the level itself not much time spent there price falls away from the level not that not the greatest decline in price but it is steady you don't have you know price falls a little bit big drop things out a little bit big drop look at how prices come back to the level remember the other part of this is when prices come back here this is where we sold short for a little day trade who are we selling to we were selling to a buyer who's making those two mistakes don't forget that's not even in the odds of the answers but that's part of core strategy right someone who's buying after such a big rally and price into a price level where the charts telling us supply exceeds demand fact is telling us supply greatly exceeds demand very little time spent at the level next one how far I want to spend some time on this one because this one's important and I'll show you another couple other examples after this how far did price move away to the level before from the level before we're turning back to the level so let's start all the way on the right side of the screen the the poor example right so price can move away so so for measuring that the size of this red candle let's say that's one point and price falls one point away and B and then returns to the level that would suggest that your initial risk reward without looking at anything else is just one to one for the middle one notice here let's look on the buy side price moves from you know let's again see the size of the candle is one point if price moves up two points before return back to the level then we would say your initial target is two to one and of course this example over here the best-case scenario and you could get back you get much better this of course would be three to one so the farther price moves away from the level before turning back to the level larger the profit margin potential and the probability of the trade being successful okay now let me um see there's a nice example but I want to show you I'll show you another one give me just a moment and I'll grab a another one for you hang on just a second you should be able to hear and you should be able to see okay all right perfect so I want to take that as an answer a little bit further because it really does two things two key things that we need here is Pro Online Trading Academy members you know what this is is pro pix so service comes out every day but so what I'll do a lot of times is I'll take our pro pics now go down to pro pics that I like and I'll put out the smaller timeframes and find you know smaller levels inside bigger levels it allows me to put a bigger position size on and still have the same amount of money at risk not risk more money and go for even smaller targets which is great so this Pro pick in the was a short the Japanese yen made about six hundred thirty eight dollars right here I took the same trade over here made about sixteen hundred dollars and I want to go over how we did that so I just took the level off a 30-minute sharding Pro picks down to a ten minute chart right here but watch the the Keeney odds enhancer that made this work there were a number of things at play here first of all let's go over the odds enhancers in the order that we covered them today so far off in Hampshire number one look at the strong drop away from this level here okay if I see that how would we score that out would you give that a 1 2 or 0 and the area I'm pointing to here how would you score that out yeah I probably give it a definitely a one but but probably a two for sure right the only thing better than that would be a gap okay how about odds in the answer number two how much time to price spend at the level here that a lot of time or just a little time or it better yet what score would you give that yeah that time at the level right there I would give it two for sure yeah okay now the next time enhancer is what we want to kind of slow down to spend more time yet how far did price move away from the level before returning to the level what score would you give that in this case now that one should in this case should be automatic there's no subjectivity at all I can blow this example up I'll make it bigger there you go so what score would you give that how much time how hard a price move away from the level before returning back to the level yeah exactly Dave that automatically gets it to because if again if the size of the width of this level the height of this level is say one point this is at least three yeah it's at least three to one Chuck exactly makes sense okay spend a little more than three to one but I want to I want it again you know I'm very big on logic you know my I'm very paranoid in all my years and let me tell you I've been in the trading education world for a long time and it's because I had just so much time on my hands as a trader and back in my 20s and four so four years in the beginning you know I started writing articles and stuff people say want to write a book once you write a book watch write a book and get like a request every day and I would say you know what I there's a little part of this and I think I have figured out but I can't really explain it yet so I want to make sure I have it right in other words I never want to put anything out there that I'm not you know really really really sure about and I would see other people put book write books about things and I could you know they didn't they didn't know that much about but but it was important to get a book out and you know you're gonna be careful with that those books can come back to bite you if they're not accurate well if it's the same thing here I'm not you know I never want to say anything that doesn't make 100 you know percent logical sense right it's got to make logical sense you've got to completely understand it we need to poke holes in it and if there's it's gotta it's got to be right it's got to be real so let's walk through this odds enhancer from the logic side for anything else when when price is falling here okay when price crawls from here to here what do I know to be true right it's not everything but there are a few things pieces of information we have first of all when prices fall from right here to right here I know that supply exceeds demand right here all right I know it's a supply exceeds demand right here number one number two when price Falls - right here I know that all the demand or buy orders that were left here and there were unfilled buy orders we know that for a fact because prices rallied away from this level right especially in strong fashion but I know that when price comes down to here I know that there can't be any more unfilled buy orders here just not possible right there were unfilled buy orders here that's why when price came down to here it kind of just chopped around sideways for a little bit and then dip down to the lowest low before returning back to the level so when price is down here I can be very confident that there's no more unfilled buy orders here maybe some new demand will come in over here that's the only thing I have to watch for but I'm not worried about any of this stuff to the left that is whatever sent factually gone makes sense in other words you can't have someone with a willing buyer sitting here when price is trading right down here at this point it's just not possible you'd be filled instantly so therefore when price comes back to the level here okay I'm very confident that it's going to move from this from this bottom black line to this lowest low on the initial move away from the level fairly quickly right makes sense now below that I'd have to look to the left and see what's there okay certainly not every trade is going to do this after you sell short but I can get a lot of information off that odds enhancer number three that's what your key odds and hits it helps open up that initial profit zone and it tells me that you know the opposing side to my trade is just not there or it or it tells me it is there and I shouldn't take the trade meaning if I sell short we sold short right here that I took this action my trade I sold short right here okay to a buyer who think about it was buying after a rally in price into a price level where there was a big supply demand imbalance we know that because of the first three odds enhancers alright in other words lots of banks with unfilled sell orders here and one of the most important things is the chart told me there wasn't any significant demand until this pivot low right here at one twenty five twenty does that make sense all right furthermore my last point to this and then we'll move on if you count the number of candles in the initial move away from a level whether it's a long or a short and let's let's look here and I don't know I'm just going to eyeball this and say there's I don't know 10 12 candles in here however many candles are in here on the initial move away from the level you can expect to do the next move in half the candles are less that because there's just nothing to stop it from falling alright alright let's move on to the next odds and the answer all right here hold on a second let me just go back to that screen okay one second now you should be coming up any second now there is that one okay there we go all right so um instead of looking at this one because we just went over that let's go to the next one this one's very important as well oh boy don't I don't disregard fundamentals I'm just they're not going to you know I'd like to know when things are coming out because then I can expect a lot of you know a lot of fills in other words another way to say that can expect a price to come to our predetermined levels right in other words there's the only way price is going to get to your key demand levels is if you have you know often if you you know you need some bad news to get price down to your key demand levels right if you remember we're that's not a good want to bring up but I was just thinking about one of the biggest news events last year for example that the tsunami in Japan horrible awful event but if you remember every day we have big levels hit and they were you know huge trades it was probably the most profitable yen week I can ever remember and again it's horrible thinking you're making money while that disaster is going on but unfortunately that's how that's how the game works I mean that's how the markets work is prices are going to get out to those extreme key levels really good or really bad news you know yeah traitor I have a traumatic count and I also manage manage of fund and it's interesting because the the the fund returns are very very consistent and it's not that the others aren't um but doing doing the let me put this way you get the average person two to five percent a month you know with a very very low risk you know trading very few transactions very lowest trading the average person's gonna be thrilled with that but you tell the average day trader you know trying to make 2 to 5% a month that doesn't sound exciting you know what I mean it's just funny how that all works but much easier to get that anyway well we'll talk about that another time I actually wanted to do a session on all that short term trading and and longer term trading you know what's the what's the simple plan to actually achieve those profits not just what's the buy set up a what's the sell set up but what of what are the numbers look like behind it let's take a look yeah we're not really combined I'm really combine the two that's why you never hear me talking about it but not a big deal let's let's take a look at this one and you can always shoot me an email let's take a look s price return to the level this is a key odds enhancer very very key we want to I always say you know we want to get in on the first pullback in price to a level and that's true there's one caveat to that though well first of all let me back up remember that you should be able to see that new screen now we're looking at hobs enhancer number four think about what these levels are that we're looking at they are you know stacks have unfilled buy and sell orders from the hopefully the biggest banks and institutions in the world that's the goal so if a level is too strong if there's too much demand or supply in that level what's going to happen is let's say it's a demand level there's a lot of unfilled buy orders price is going to keep shooting up for that level right it's gonna it's going to take off in that level so with each successive pullback or decline into that level what's happening to the amount of demand is it increasing or decreasing it's decreasing right okay because some of those buy orders are being filled so with that it's logical to say it makes logical sense to say well we should only get in on the first pull back because that's the that's when the level is strongest and I would say that that's true however there are many occasions for example if you're in the mastermind community and OTA a couple weeks ago we have the low and the yen like four days in a row I'm sorry not the yen and the Nasdaq like four days in a row it was all into the same level we kept trading off the same level and it came back down like three or four times and you might say well looking at this chart it that violates this well the caveat is when price comes back to the level and just touches the level and takes off for example like like this one here in the middle the demand zone see how it just touches the level of moves higher we would take the second pullback right I wouldn't score it out as high as you know this is a called a fresh level over here on the Left where it says uh best equals to notice those are levels that were created price have not been back to those levels yet meaning they're fresh and that gets the highest probability score over to the right once you have one retraced that we take one point off that but again if you know if price just touched the level on the first retracement it doesn't mean it's a bad level okay I would say if you want to be if you want to be safe once price trades a quarter a 25% I would say into the level stop taking it in other words don't take the next retraced because that's telling you there's just not a lot of demand or supply left okay makes sense all right that is odd enhancer number four and lastly would be the any of the correlations yeah looking at the chat here ah let's see yeah level on top of level we've talked about that one before okay we talked about that one before and that's certainly not the answer I know I don't have that list to go over today but we've talked about that one before that's certainly a key odds enhancer okay definitely definitely helps increase the odds Andrei contracts traded totally depends on the size of the level okay in other words it really depends on you know the size and level that determines the position size because we never want to risk more than like for the big accounts that I'm talking about you know never really want to risk more than 2% of the accounts on those that's just those I mean if it was you know there's different situations but on those four I'm just giving example there's more than 2% so paying on the size of the level meeting the size from entry to stop going to adjust position size to make sure that we're not risking more than the next risk okay let's go out to the live markets now all right so here we're looking at the euro we've got a couple levels on the hourly chart there above current price and okay get if we scored these out and we show they didn't go over all the odds and answers here today we've got kind of three levels on top of each other here you could probably take but but here's there's one thing I want to show you okay here's one thing I want to show you what's the difference between these two levels and I'll give you a hint the bottom level I would never take the top level I probably would why would we not take that bottom level what's the problem with it on the 60-minute euro profit margins one thing so remember we want to make sure that this initial move is at least three times this so this is a call this ten points it's like almost eleven to call it ten points right so this is this is three to one okay this is three to one decent spot on the curve take a look right here I always want to take a little x-ray snapshot here's the level here's the problem that's the level on a small timeframe so this is the x-ray okay it doesn't look like you know think of an x-ray that the doctor takes if I'm looking at this bottom supply level doesn't look like there's anything broken here we're looking at I don't know an elbow this little thing is anything broken but there's something wrong there's pain we go down and look at the x-ray and there's where we see it okay look at this there's it's facing sideways price drops out of there and then comes back in this ice I can tell you people that are starting off at this novices I don't want call people novices because it's like a negative it's a negative connotation to it just people that are new to this this is something that gets them probably is much therefore more than anything else they don't look for this alright so so because price fell out of this area rally back and then went down I it's not fresh enough for me could it work it could work but if you have the skill set to identify a true fresh level why would you want to take anything else so I'm going to undo that and now I'm going to stick with this upper level now my lines are not going to stay there either I'm going to push this line right up to here because that's where the actual drop happened from right here okay right there so now if we score this out strong drop in price away from an area very little time spend at the area the only thing that will make this better is if this were rally base drop like up here this is not this is drop base drop a little bit lower odds because those are always going to be found in the middle of moves but you know it is what it is it's uh it's okay and again strong drop away from the area very little time spent at the area notice how far our price moved away from the area before potentially returning back to the area yeah Dave yeah absolutely again I spent you know I started out my career in the Florida Chicago Mercantile Exchange handling institutional order flow so all that matters I mean you can throw fundamentals and everything else out the window and I started out in the Forex floor upstairs at the CME and it was all Forex you know the whole forex quadrant up there years ago all that mattered to anybody on the floor was how much willing you know demand and supply was at each price level that's all anybody cared about believe me if you if you ask someone if you told let me let me put it this way let's say you and I mean you were on a trading floor and you and I give you two choices I see look you have to pick one or the other I you can the I can I'll give you you can it there's two services that you can you can have one of them but you can't have both service a your service aid you pick which service you want you can't have both you have to pick one service a you're going to know every economic report exactly what the number is ten minutes before it comes out and you'll be the only person on the trading floor you'll be able to feel that person in the world that knows it or service be okay you're going to know exactly how much you know how many willing buyers and sellers how much willing demand and supply the actual orders you able to see all the orders from all the banks and institutions okay you're gonna be able to see how much is on the buy side that how much of it is on the sell side at every price level which one are you going to take service B your service a you can't pick both of course you're going to take be your course you can take be John still taking both even though he can't all right a lot of people went to prison for that John they got a little greedy at the Merck but that's okay all right of course you're going to take B B guarantees profits you can't lose if you have B right a yeah what does they really get you okay anyway all right so um I think you get the point there I forgot why even was telling that story but all right um right so oh yeah yeah yeah thanks Dave so again when you come from that mindset that's that's how I was trained that's how my brain works with this stuff so it's so important as we were saying to know that a level is fresh that is key key key information make sure it's a fresh level and when I say fresh it doesn't necessarily have to be the first pull back but make sure prices have not gone too deep into the level all right again if they've gone more than 25% into the level there's probably better levels out there I would just go find something fresh okay all right so there's my email address again as sidon at training academy calm hopefully you today's little lesson on odds and answers was helpful usually we spend time just in the live markets today I thought we'd take a step back and you know go bring things a little forward with odds of the answers we can now start including that language in our trading sessions which will start doing I can say as an answer number 1 2 3 or 4 you'll know what I'm talking about and if you're still if you're new to the sessions you're a little lost just go back and review the recordings there's plenty of them on the FX street website and thanks for your time hope it was helpful we'll see you all we'll see you next time thanks again

Channel: FXStreet

Views: 156,809

Rating: 4.9027066 out of 5

Keywords: Forex

Id: _7DeDnpTnjI

Length: 41min 28sec (2488 seconds)

Published: Tue Jan 12 2016