Russian tactics set Putin at disadvantage as Ukraine begins 2024 training | Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones

and that's what the Russians haven't been able to do they throw their their mobilized forces in into the front line and and they just get killed the ukrainians will want to be different they have been different their soldiers have been better they're fighting for their for their country but they've got to have the skills as well otherwise you know what you end up with is is really just very small teams what the ukrainians want to be able to do is is fight in big teams the orchestra of War bring all their tools that at their disposal together against the Russians hello and welcome to front line for times radio I'm James Hansen and today we're talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine with Major General rert Jones Rupert was previously the UK's most senior commander in Iraq we always value his insights here on front lineer thank you so much for joining us today James pleasure nice to see you I wanted to start with the events of of recent days Ukraine appears now to be conducting conducting some successful drone strikes as far north as Petersburg causing a fire at a gas storage facility also the Russian defense Ministry says a drone targeted an oil terminal in St Petersburg last week how significant do you think those attacks are well they do feel significant don't they you know they are striking deep into Russia into their National infrastructure um and I think you know that there's been pressure from Western Nations on Ukraine not to if you like spread the war take the war into into into Russia and and one can understand why that that was the case but you can't expect Ukraine to fight the war with one hand time behind their back by which I mean Russia and Putin have been striking into the length and breadth of Ukraine all Targets on on the table civilian infrastructure military uh and Ukraine has been pretty cautious in terms of how it struck back into into Russia but increasingly over recent months we know they've they fired drones deeper and deeper into Russia uh and I think you know President Putin needs to know there's there's a price for this war there's a price for the Russian people there's a price for Russia itself and so striking uh National infrastructure in this way is firstly I think entirely valid Ukraine I think can point to the degree to which these gas and oil facilities are supporting the war so they are credible logistic military targets uh and I I think it you know it it sends a a strong message to to President Putin so I think I think it is significant and I suppose it's almost a mirror image of what we've been seeing the Russians doing for well over a year now which is targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure I I think that's absolutely right yeah we saw President Putin last year didn't we through the winter really turn the turn the tap on the ukrainians try and really make them pay a price through through the winter hit the infrastructure make for a very cold and miserable winter uh and as you say you know that the the in a way the ukrainians are turning their back on the Russians do we know how well Russia's air defenses are coping with these attacks yeah I mean it's it's hard to tell isn't it it doesn't appear they're doing especially well and we could argue it's quite difficult for them um because they' they've you know Russia is vast they've got a huge uh area to to defend um and so you know quite hard for them in a way Ukraine is on such a war footing now uh and they know where their vulnerable targets are they know where their critical infrastructure is and so they can concentrate their their air defenses probably more effectively than than the Russians can every time there's there's an attack the Russians will claim they they shot down X many drones uh and and I'm sure that is probably right uh but Putin won't be happy with the with the amand of attacks that are getting through I I would I would say the the Ukrainian air defense is proving more more effective as a percentage compared with the Russians and does Ukraine have the supply of drones and and we'll come on to its supply issues more broadly in due CA but specifically on drones does it have the supply of drones to sustain these attacks on Russian infrastructure well I mean drones Supply is undoubtedly a challenge we we know that but the ukrainians have demonstrated incredible uh Innovative Zeal through through the war so far uh and there's a big uh Push by Ukraine at the moment to kind of make more drone homemade drones uh and training uh more and more ukrainians to to Pilot those those drones so yes of course they want more drones coming from International Partners high-tech drones uh but I think I think there big being clear eyed about the supply of Western Arms and they're they're kind of gearing up their their homemade drone capacity seemingly very effectively let's talk about what we've been seeing on the front line in recent weeks rut and Russia has managed to capture the village of coc Maloy and it continues to advance and a diva what is your reading of the latest situation yeah I mean I think this this are two elements aren't there you know so so we saw the uh Ukrainian much vaunted spring offensive last year slowly run its course and it didn't deliver the object the objectives everybody had hoped and towards the back end of last year the Russians sort of seemed to go more on the offensive AB deas as you say they kept the pressure at B muton and elsewhere but in doing so they continue to suffer extraordinarily High losses but it but it does appear in recent weeks the Russians are keeping up the momentum uh the the level of attacks across the front by the Russians are on the increase in in recent weeks and that that points to the the transition if you like from late Autumn into winter where it goes from the wet muddy ground into the proper hard frozen ground muddy very hard to fight in for armored vehicles once it gets properly Frozen armored vehicles can move much more readily and so it feels so the Russians are taking advantage of those those changes and conditions but let's be clear the gains they're making are still really very small and they're paying a huge price in human losses for those gains can you see any Prospect for either side making a break through out of this stage of what appears to be very positional Warfare there's you know there's hopes that maybe Ukraine can launch a counter offensive but that seems fanciful at the moment Russia talking about launching UK offensive is that realistic well so if we take the Russians first the Russians haven't shown much um kind of operational level Acumen through the course of the war um and so whenever they have tried to mount offensives they've just been very attritional in their nature putting you know pretty poorly trained troops into the front line you know people described as a as a meat grinder not a terribly attractive expression but but probably you has has relevance um so I I can see the Russians continuing to try and do that do I think the Russians have got some clever play in their back pocket maybe they do but there's not much evidence of it and they haven't done so uh hither to as to the ukrainians as you said there's lots of talk about what are the ukrainians going to do in 2024 2023 as we've said already didn't deliver the rewards that that many had hoped and the West really only has it s to blame for that because you know we didn't give them the support they needed early enough in late 22 so they could train through 23 sorry through the early part of 20 23 so they didn't have the equipment they they needed they didn't have the fome support of the West you many have said that the the West was giving them enough support not to lose but not enough support to win we trained their troops but let's not kid us elves we we weren't giving them very much training you know they're coming to UK and elsewhere they're being put put put through a pretty basic very impressive training but it doesn't make an army of these these troops and so again some Western observers were criticizing the ukrainians for the manner in which they were fighting last year well their troops weren't especially well trained so they were doing the best they could uh in the circumstances that they they face so so I think that's the the the first thing to to reflect looking into 2024 what what will they do there's a lot of talk that they will kind of almost pause you to describes positional Warfare and they will try and consolidate through 2024 build out their forces train their troops better hope that more Western Equipment comes online and that 2025 is then another big year I suspect there's some truth in that but the ukrainians got to be very careful because they've had the initiative through most of the war so far and they won't want to give that up they want to maintain some momentum now the attacks on St Petersburg and elsewhere will be part of that that keeps Russia on the back back foot tries to keep the the initiative but I think they're going to need more than that so yes even if they do largely pause they will still I would suggest want to look for opportunities to keep knock the Russians on the back foot and you mentioned ruper the issue that the ukrainians have with training is numbers still an issue I mean obviously president zalinski has has announced the mobilization of an extra half a million troops is that going to be required this year well I mean they they certainly need more more troops you know we focus on Russian cases but we know the ukrainians have suffered very heavy heavy casualties as well haven't they um terrible casualties so of course they need need those those troops you know not least because if you're going to make Headway in one area mountain offensive you need to hold elsewhere and just holding the front line requires a huge amount of troops it's brutal on the front line they need to rotate the their troops in and out of the front line if they're a they're able to so so we know they need to to to train more TR more troops we know that that's been an issue uh for them getting the right set of people sufficiently well well trained uh and equipped and I do think it is a concern for the ukrainians being able to yes as you say mobilize those troops but equip them and critically train them train them as individuals then bring them them together into small teams and big teams and that's what the Russians haven't been able to do they throw their their mobilized forces in into the front line and and they just get killed the ukrainians will want to be different they have been different their soldiers have been better their f in for their for their country but they've got to have the skills as well otherwise you know what you end up with is is really just very small teams what the ukrainians want to be able to do is is fight in big teams the orchestra of War bring all their tools at their disposal together against the Russians and is the Russ Russian casualy raid that we've been seeing is that sustainable I mean you use the analogy of the meat grinder and clearly that's a tactic that Putin is willing to use but will there come a Tipping Point when they can no longer sustain these losses well you know history would suggest that uh the Soviet Union now Russia have an incredible ability to absorb losses you you look at what they they absorbed in the second world war it it's it's almost incomprehensible you know they are still fundamentally you know the the the same people so they have incredible resilience and and we should not view a strategy as you know wearing out Russia's supply of of manpa I think that's a really poor strategy because Russia has demonstrated can absorb losses beyond the comprehension of of Western Nations now that is not to say in this war they will necessarily do that and be able to do that but but I don't think it's a sound strategy to think that just by imposing huge amounts of Manpower losses that the Russians will lose it is possible that they will run out of the industrial base to support their recruits that's a different thing you know can they equip them can they have get all the all the all the sustainment they need for the for those troops and it is possible that Putin loses the battle at home and that and that people turn against him um but but again I I don't think I think that be a Fool's errand by the West to believe that's a strategy if it happens all to the good but but the our history would tell us that Russia has the potential to absorb the losses that are being imposed on them given what you said R about the situation on the front line if you were in general Z's shoes what would you be setting as your objectives yeah I mean I I think really hard and you know I genuinely wouldn't want to second can guess him and the reason I say that is is that you know generals uh politicians have a huge amount of information that are simply not at our disposal and and I as a commentator and just not not you know I don't have that information anymore um and these are hugely nuanced decisions about what what the intelligence is what the force dispositions are so I'm I'm kind of guessing if I'm brutally honest and any commentator who claims that they're not guessing to that s of answer is is probably kidding you but but I but I'll take you back to my macro observation I think he'll be saying to to zalinski we have to maintain momentum and yes you got to build up the M might of the nation and if that's not until 2025 then fine but I on the front line I've got to I've got to keep my morale up of the troops if the troops just sit there you know taking the attacks from the Russians that's very very sapping for for moral so I'm sure he'll be saying we we've got to continue continue to take some some uh object objectives that may well be Dan HW um you know where where you're crossing the denit pro that that seems like a a rich scene where they may be able to to exploit but exactly where he judges he wants to make make those advances it's very hard to tell but but I'm confident he's just not going to want to sit out 24 you know it's too tough for his troops to do that is there almost a sense rer that the front line currently is not really a diva or the Deno River it's it's really US Congress and that whilst we are waiting for further movement on increased military aid for Ukraine the positional Warfare on the front line clearly it's not irrelevant but in the grand scheme of things what really matters now is whether the Western Military Support will continue well I mean you know you can certainly make that case can't you and and it it doesn't it seems awful doesn't it that that's that that's the conversation you know Ukraine is fighting for its very survival um it's fighting on behalf of all of us we should not be under any illusions that you Ukraine is fighting for for the rest of Europe for NATO for our our our approach to life our standard of living is all on the line in the way Ukraine is fighting uh and while those their troops are fighting and dying there are debates arguments in in Congress and in European capitals about continuing support uh so it does it does feel like that you know president zinsky I mean I don't know what what gets him up at night um but I suspect the support of Congress is pretty high up that that list and were increased military aid to be approved what equipment specifically do you think Ukraine needs at the moment well I mean I think you I think they do need more more air defense you know that that's a that is a continuing challenge for them you know I think they're doing incredibly well with the air defense that they they've got but we know the Russians can can penetrate we know the Russians can can hit their their National infrastructure so I think air defense would be very very high uh up on on the the list I think the other thing that they need at the moment is just Munitions you know we know there's a you know that NATO Nations uh we all have a a a frankly criminal shortage of of Munitions that taxpayers have taken politicians have taken huge liberties with uh o over recent years and we militaries have known this and we've highlighted it and politicians they have to make tough judgments but those judgments are coming home to roost you know you've got to have the stockpiles for Wars and Western stop pars were way too low uh and they are trying to build them up but the can't build them up F fast enough and because our stock Pils are so low we can't give those M Munitions to the to ukrainians at the rate they need them so so I'm I'm artillery ammunition would be right up the list uh as as well you know along with the things we've discussed already we've talked about we've talked about drones they need AR more armored vehicles still waiting for the f-16s to to come online you know the shopping list the shopping list is is long uh if the Ukraine are going to are going to go from as I said earlier from preventing the Russians from defeating them into a position where they can they can rid uh Ukraine of Russians and is there more that the West could be doing aside from increased military aid to help Ukraine I mean only last week I was speaking to the Ukrainian MP Kira Rik who's the leader of the holos party and she was making the point that Russian weapons that have been captured by Ukrainian soldiers on the front line are still being found to have Western details in them and she says well well why can't we we look again at sanctions why is that still happening are there other things that we could be doing aside from increased military aid that would actually support Ukraine on the front line yeah I mean I think that's a really really good Advantage a good good example you know the global supply chain is so complex um and it's it kind of seems criminal doesn't it that there are as you say you know if you look at the full inventory of Russian Weaponry you know and the architect cure that is supporting the war there are Western fingerprints all over it um whether it's you know computer companies software companies uh Hardware so I I think I think there's a whole lot more that could be done you know sanctions have done so so much but could they do more certainly I mean I absolutely recognize that historically sanctions are very difficult to impose and there tend tend to be ways around them but it does feel pretty bizarre doesn't it that there are bits of the of the western economy that is are still you know benefiting from from the war selling into Russia uh and and assisting their their war effort just finally ruper to what extent do you think events over recent weeks and months in the Middle East have undermined Ukraine's war effort in the sense that it's taken Western attention off the need to supply Ukraine yeah I mean I think I think to some degree um you know Western politicians all politicians have a finite capacity there's only so many hours in their in their day there's only so much mental capacity they've got and and their their civil servants their architectures their their their government machineries are have finite capacity um and you can't escape the fact that you know when there's a there's another huge strategic challenge facing uh the Western the Western Nations the United States in particular trying to to assist uh the the situation in the Middle East trying to help Israel uh deal with with Hamas that that of course D I just look at secretary blinken he's back and forth back and forth back and forth you know while he's doing that he can't also be fully committed in in his mental capacity onto onto Ukraine it's just it's it's a it's a fact isn't it um and you know the the the the West the United States in particular have been sending uh Weaponry to support uh Israel's fight to what degree some of that that Weaponry would have been headed to Ukraine is is a moot point but but again there is a there is a finite capacity the Western Munitions uh capacity is finite and it can only be sent in in you know in in so many directions at once if you like so so look you know it's an unfortunate byproduct of the of what's happening in in in the Middle East um but I think president zinsky is been very cleare eyed about that and you know I don't think he's he's not kind of pointing fingers or complaining about it that that's that's the nature of the Glo the global environment at the moment Major General ruper Jones we always appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on Frontline James a pleasure to talking to you as always thank you for watching this episode of Frontline for times radio for more on the war in Ukraine subscribe to the times radio YouTube channel listen to times radio on your Digital radio or you can read the Times online with your digital subscription or in print thank you and goodbye

Channel: Times Radio

Views: 173,397

Keywords: TimesRadio, russia ukraine war, ukraine, russia ukraine, russia, russia ukraine news, ukraine war, ukraine russia, russia vs ukraine, russia vs ukraine war update, ukraine russia news, ukraine news, war in ukraine, ukraine vs russia, ukraine russia war, russia ukraine war news, ukraine war map, russia war ukraine, news russia ukraine, russia ukraine crisis, russia attacks ukraine, russia ukraine conflict, russia invading ukraine, russia ukraine war update, ukraine map

Id: D8J-b2J3sK0

Length: 22min 43sec (1363 seconds)

Published: Mon Jan 22 2024