Russia v.s. The Future

being landlocked is most often a disadvantage because it blocks access to resources in trade you really need to know how to play your hand when you're landlocked because no one wants that here are some tips if you're landlocked tip 1 make a fuss to your neighbors and negotiate access through rivers or straits controlled by another country Europe has a buffer of Blackrock States who have access to the ocean in this way the elbow Rhine and Danube allowed the Czechs the Swiss and the Serbs access to the wider world with few worries Belgium even has its own access to the Atlantic Ocean but prefers to use Dutch waters to access their best ports and they have little to worry about because for the last 200 years Europeans have stopped fighting and slowly come to the realization that sharing is caring tip to get yourself a panhandle Slovenia Bosnia and until 2006 Serbia Montenegro the end of Yugoslavia left us with a load of these to choose room since Croatia hogs the whole adriatic coast or you could get a colonial power to do it for you tip 3 just fight to get it from a tiny Slavic Duchy on the fringes of the Mongol Empire to the continental power Russia is a huge advocate of fighting from Moscow they found the Arctic sea now they were no longer landlocked but are cankles Russia's Arctic port is somewhat out of the way and is frozen over for half of the earth so people only established red legs by accident it was clear that they could do better so they started fighting and advanced until they hit water and then when they did they just turn around again until they hit a different water arctic Volga Caspian Baltic black after Peter the Great imported the blueprints for a modern navy from Western Europe Russia defeated various castles and Carnot's then Sweden and the Ottoman Empire fought on river and ocean to secure those better ports in warmer and more convenient locations the most precious of which is the Black Sea or tip zero you could just settle there's one country that's all unlocked it's virtually in a world of its own one of only two EE RAM blocked countries in this world rebecca stan is more than your average stem there is no route to the seven seas for as Becca Stan 400 years ago Peter the grip reckoned there was a rivet into Central Asia so he could conquer the region but he was wrong in this region all rivers lead to the desert buzz Pakistan is never going to be a world leader neither is it even a very rich country but it's very secure in its mediocrity to be a global power you need a global Navy this is the best way to steer mobile and mint the ability to rock over anyone's doorstep at the mildest of inconveniences few countries have this opportunity never mind the ability instead as Pakistan has almost everything it needs right on its doorstep but problems lie in that location when the russian empire annexed swears of Eurasia they sliced up empires for the next century the powers in the Russian capital redrew those borders to suit themselves for Lenin and Stalin this meant playing around with ethnicities tying them into all sorts of ships nations crystallized around these divisions and when the 1990s came around independence was all in vogue the resulting breakup left us Pakistan in a peculiar situation today the country roughly comprises the area between two major rivers west of a series of mountain ridges upon which their neighbors encircle the valuable Fergana Valley it's the most densely populated area of Central Asia and it's also the main transit route for road rail and energy those becca stan was given the lion's share of it along with some envious and unstable neighbors across the borders many countries throughout history have used Borderlands as a way of buffering themselves against hostile neighbors lords who took charge of these lands and successfully defended them got special titles like Marky and Margrave named after the bored lambs named marches the same happened in Russia where the titles were the less romantic Governor General and the borderlands were cries and still to this day there is one cry that Russia is keeping a keen interest in Ukraine Ukraine is similar to Poland in that they're both naturally attractive to invading forces but unlike Poland there isn't a German Empire at the other end of Ukraine there's only glorious mountains and glorious sea the only other redeeming feature of Ukraine's location is that one peninsula with warm water ports ocean access wealthy energy deposits and unfortunately for Ukraine a few million Russians which were the perfect crowbar for the person with the access to the justify war button the ingredients were already there Russia just put them all together in 2014 Russia was at its smallest size in centuries there was a reason why Russia expanded so far all those years ago its core isn't well protected so it needs as much distance as possible between the capital and enemy territory and to anchor those borders against geographic features like mountains and ocean at the fall of the Soviet Union Moscow was 1500 kilometers from NATO but by 2004 was within breathing distance probably a good move for NATO but Russia is provoked into action if it wants to secure its surroundings after the fall of the Soviet Union Russia was left with 25% less land half the population and longer borders making defence difficult and expensive and Russian tactics with fighting neighbors had to change as well one of the last things the USSR tried to do was invade in control Afghanistan on the fringes in Central Asia the u.s. couldn't risk direct war with the Soviets so their ideal solution was a proxy war a proxy guerilla war meaning they could fight dirty the Soviets retreated from Afghanistan and imploded in private in the Caucasus Russia keeps close tabs Chechnya in particular has always been a thorn in the bear's paw so Russia is well-trained in fighting eternal Wars on the fringes of its empire on both sides of the border aiding and fighting separatist struggles are its speciality all of this is how Russia keeps control of its Borderlands the meddling of Soviet leaders in the borders of Uzbekistan might not be as a blatant as the straight lines of Africa in the Middle East but it still leads to problems the am after all was to prevent effective opposition to Moscow supremacy but Russia's knots in the Fergana Valley have given us Becca Stan access to those very same tools that Russia uses against its neighbors the parts of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that reached the valley are cut off by mountains from their coal and capital and they're full of ozb X Kyrgyzstan has been through two revolutions in a decade stoked partly by ethnic tensions this is where Tashkent finds influence I wonder where as Becca Stein learned that technique against its neighbors but Pakistan also maintains some of the longest border walls in the world that minimizes the number of border crossings to maintain and control since just like Russia has smaller territory and longer borders and fragile neighbours does tend to lead to spill over with then it has one single border crossing the ironically named Afghanistan Uzbekistan friendship bridge the least friendly looking bridge in the world which was formerly the route into Afghanistan for Soviet forces built for that purpose the neighbors retaliation against the spec is done could be to challenge its reliance on the two rivers which originated in their mountains but sadly for them was Bacchus that has much more leverage an eligible military population bigger than the entire populations of its neighbors and control of transport food and energy of both countries these neighbors simply don't put it as a threat but what about further afield the region is surrounded by nuclear powers China India Pakistan Russia and Iran all surround Central Asia but those Pakistan borders none of them Tashkent has 1,000 kilometres of buffer so like a stalker with intimacy issues whose Becca Stan wants to keep its neighbors close but not too close it needs to keep the right blend of distance and influence to keep control of its few vital interests in the neighboring countries but if Russia comes downtown defending an oppressed minority does Pakistan will have problems it's the only neighbor with whom as Becca Stan maintains an even vaguely cordial relationship Kazakh citizens of a higher GDP per capita and higher living standards but that comes at a cost of having to kowtow to the Kremlin if Russia is to meddle in the affairs of Central Asia Kazakhstan is the launch pad in more ways than one with a quarter of the population being ethnically Russian and moving the capital 600 miles north towards its large and ever it's clear that carving is much room for themselves in a small space under Russia's thumb is their goal and to not become the second Ukraine so as long as Kazakhstan remains friendly there's no need to annex until then Kazakhstan plays along as one of Russia's closest allies in a series of vague post-soviet organizations Russia looks at climate change in a slightly more favorable way than most of the places in the world it'll open with new trade routes and it will make a lot more London and North arable and inhabitable no longer would Russia simply be discovered by accident but for Rebecca Stan mismanagement has already led to the evaporation of the ROC meaning those rivers drain into the land before reaching a body of water the Karakum desert advances and the rivers retreat every year compound that with the melting of the glaciers that are the source of his rivers and you have as ureas ticking clock when there's not enough water to go around any lens you use to view it it's not good and when there's a security problem coming from the south whether it's terrorism or the drug trade or even something smaller threatening them Russia will go south who knows what will happen in that instance miss Becca stone has to try hard to keep that lid down until then they're strong and often batshit leadership's will attempts to survive in tumultuous neighborhoods playing the sim cagey begins they learned together to hold on to power and do what they have to do to stay there this video was inspired by the accidental superpower a book by Peter Zion not only is a good read Britta so full of delicious maps if you're into that kind of thing for more information search Zion on geopolitics or follow the links on screen and in the description thanks for watching [Music] you

Channel: brain4breakfast

Views: 3,037,828

Rating: 4.8218436 out of 5

Keywords: Russia, Uzbekistan, USSR, History, Fergana, Rivers, Climate Change, geography

Id: dAjk7Xs4IEQ

Length: 9min 48sec (588 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 14 2017

Reddit Comments

[u/BlackPresident]

"For the last 200 years, Europeans have stopped fighting"