With Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer all pulingl
out of supplying Russian airlines with planes and parts, all three are staring down the
barrel of a potentially empty orderbook in the country. While the length of time Russia will be under
sanctions remains unknown, history has shown what the impact of such moves could be. Let’s take a closer look at the full, longer-term
ramifications of sanctions against Russia from an aviation perspective… Lets’s take Iran as a case study. The nation has been under sanctions on and
off since 1995, preventing manufacturers from providing new planes or parts for existing
aircraft to any operators in the country. As such, Iran’s aviation industry has been
limping along with a motley collection of old and unusual aircraft – an avgeek’s
dream, but not the best for airline efficiency or operational reliability. When the sanctions were lifted in 2015, Iranian
airlines signed a flurry of orders to renew their aging fleets. By 2016, deals had been signed relating to
100 Airbus jets, 80 Boeing aircraft, and 40 ATR turboprops. Unfortunately for these customers, only 11
aircraft were delivered before 2018 - when sanctions were reapplied as the US withdrew
from the nuclear deal. Although the situation with Russia is very
different from Iran’s, there are some parallel similarities. Both Airbus and Boeing have a significant
number of orders in place with Russian airlines, and both could be forced to find alternative
customers for their planes if the sanctions last for an extended period. So what kind of exposure are we looking at
for these planemakers? To answer this, let’s look at data from
ch-aviation.com. It should be noted that this does not account
for aircraft ordered by lessors for delivery to Russian airlines, only those placed directly. Data shows that Boeing has outstanding direct
orders for 42 aircraft sitting with Russian airlines right now. These include six 777-200Fs for AirBridgeCargo,
and 36 737 MAX 8s destined for UTair, Ural Airlines, and S7 Airlines. AirBridgeCargo (ABC) is an offshoot of outsized
cargo specialist Volga-Dnepr. The main branch of the cargo airline uses
Antonov and Ilyushin aircraft for its operations, but ABC flies Boeings. The Group expressed an interest in the 777
platform back in 2018. In 2019, it firmed up an order for nine 777-200F. The first of these was delivered to ABC in
August 2020. While some parts of that order have since
been subject to sale and leaseback transactions, six aircraft remain outstanding. According to ch-aviation, these are not planned
for delivery until 2024 – 2025. It’s possible that the situation will have
eased before these delivery windows roll around but of course, it’s difficult to know at
the moment. More of a problem for Boeing are the many
737 MAXs headed to Russia. The biggest headache will be UTair, an airline
with 28 737 MAX jets on order. The carrier originally placed an order for
30 of the new narrowbodies back in 2018, six of which were due to be delivered in 2020. These were critical to its future fleet for
the airline, as it was replacing aging 737 Classics, including its 26 737-500s. To date, UTair has not taken delivery of a
single 737 MAX, largely due to the prolonged grounding. It even had to lease some 737 NG capacity
to stay on its planned expansion course while waiting for the MAXs to arrive. Data suggests that the first MAXs were due
to arrive in March 2023, delivering regularly through to December 2027, when all 28 would
be handed over. In terms of imminent deliveries, both S7 and
Ural Airlines were expecting 737 MAX arrivals pretty soon. Ural Airlines only has two on order from Boeing,
both of which were earmarked to arrive in March 2022. At least two have been spotted on flight testing
around Boeing Field in recent weeks. S7 Airlines was the first to fly the MAX in
Russia, taking delivery of its first in October 2018. It has taken delivery of another one since,
and, according to data, has six more due to arrive. While not all have had estimated delivery
dates applied, at least two were expected to be delivered before the summer. Again, these almost-completed aircraft have
been spotted around Renton in recent weeks. Airbus has a smaller but no less significant
exposure in Russia. It has a total of 22 aircraft listed by ch-aviation
as being destined for Russian airlines, a large portion of which is its flagship widebody,
the A350. Airbus’ biggest Russian customer is Aeroflot,
which has 13 A350-900s on order. It has already taken delivery of nine, the
latest of which was delivered to Moscow on February 24th. While there are no delivery dates listed for
the outstanding aircraft, AIBFamilyFlights notes MSN 471 has been undergoing flight testing
ahead of its planned delivery. On the narrowbody side, the popular A320neo
family has some outstanding Russian orders. S7 Airlines appears here again, with deals
for four planes – three A321LRs and one A320neo. No delivery date has been indicated for these. The other narrowbody customer is smartavia,
which is expecting three A320neos. These should have been delivered in the early
part of this year. One was delivered in February, joining the
three that were already in the smartavia fleet. Two are noted to have been well on the way
to delivery date, with MSN 10791 taking its first flight on March 1st, and MSN 10786 on
February 18th. Again, ch-aviation data does not show orders
that have not been firmed-up, nor those placed through lessors. According to reporting at IFN News, the Lufthansa
Group could be waiting in the wings to take over some of these undelivered aircraft. At a press conference earlier this month,
the group CEO Carsten Spohr confirmed that the group is in talks with aircraft manufacturers
regarding additional deliveries. Of particular interest to the Lufthansa Group
are the Airbus A350s, initially destined for Aeroflot. Alongside this, Lufthansa Cargo is reported
to be interested in additional 777 freighters, potentially signaling a desire to take on
the aircraft destined for Volga-Dnepr. Although we started this video by drawing
parallels between Russia and Iran, there’s one crucial factor that differentiates these
nations and their aviation industries. Russia makes its own planes and has done so
for years; Iran, although it regularly eyes production of commercial aircraft, has yet
to produce anything viable. As such, Russian airlines have an option on
the table that was not available for Iranian airlines, and that’s to simply fly Russian
planes. Outstanding orders are in place for hundreds
of SSJ 100s from carriers, including Rossiya, Red Wings, Azimuth, and more. Then, there are hundreds of MC-21s also on
order, including for Aeroflot, IrAero, Red Wings, and others. Also in the mix are 19 Ilyushin Il-114-300s
from Aurora. But there are a few problems with this. Let’s start with the big one – all but
one of these aircraft are not completed or ready to be delivered yet. The Il-114-300 is a resurrected version of
a three-decade-old turboprop that never sold well in the first place. Russia’s United Aircraft wanted to modernize
and revive the design, pitting it against the competitors in this space from DHC and
ATR. Originally, the idea was to move part of the
Dash 8-400s production to Russia to supply Russian airlines with the plane. However, after talks ended following the annexation
of Crimea, Russia took matters into its own hands. Last year, United Aircraft began flight testing
the first prototype of the Il-114-300. It said that it was hoping for certification
in 2022, but that’s now looking increasingly unlikely. Even if it does begin delivering before the
end of the year, the output of the serial production plant is only planned to be around
12 aircraft per year. The MC-21, again, is not certified yet. It has been undergoing a rigorous testing
process, most recently undertaking cold soak testing in Yakutsk. Things are moving forward on certification,
but it’s a slow process. Russia has previously said it would aim for
20 aircraft per year, but more recently updated this to an annual rate of 36. The second big problem is that only one of
these aircraft would go any distance towards filling the hole in the order book from the
loss of Boeing and Airbus. Both the SSJ and the Il-114 are very much
regional flyers, with only the MC-21 being capable of big trans-Russia routings. All in, 45 narrowbody jets are going to be
missing from Russian fleets. Even if everything goes precisely to plan
for United Aircraft, it will be some time before it gets production up to 36 planes
a year. That means these airlines could be waiting
many years for a Russian alternative. On the widebody side, there is no alternative,
so Aeroflot will be forced to fly what it has right now for the time being. Ultimately, however, the lost widebodies probably
won’t be needed for a while. Russia is increasingly being cut off from
the rest of the world, with nations all over the globe slamming their doors on the country’s
airlines. Although some international connections remain,
places for Russian airlines to fly long-haul are becoming fewer by the day. Russia itself has a robust domestic aviation
scene, as was witnessed during the worst of COVID. As the rest of the world stayed home and stopped
traveling, Russian airlines were flying as much, if not more, than they did pre-COVID. Indeed, by mid-2020, Aeroflot boasted a complete
recovery of domestic traffic, exceeding pre-covid levels in some markets. Although Russians love traveling internationally,
the reduction of options saw passengers heading for staycations in their droves. Russia boasts some impressive homegrown resorts,
including Sochi and Anapa on the Black Sea. Nevertheless, the elephant in the room for
all Russian airlines is the lack of ongoing support from their plane manufacturers. Although around one-third of Russia’s commercial
fleet is homegrown, most are small airplanes, not designed to go long distances. The two-thirds that Airbus, Embraer, and Boeing
provide remains critical to all of Russia’s airlines. Once these planes hit their next service interval,
or experience an unexpected maintenance issue, airlines are in trouble. While there may be a small stockpile of spare
parts right now, that reserve won’t last long. When this stockpile is exhausted, Russian
airlines will have to turn to cannibalization of their fleets in order to keep at least
some airplanes flying. It’s tough times for Russian aviation, but
far tougher for those who are suffering at the hands of Putin’s war machine. For everyone involved, a swift resolution
is the best possible outcome right now. What do you think about the situation in Russia
and the future for the country’s airlines? Let us know
in the comments.
