>> WHEN RUSSIA CARRIED OUT A MISSILE STRIKE LAST WEEK, THE DAMAGE WAS PRETTY FRIGHTENING. SEVERAL FLOOR OF AN APARTMENT BUILDING WERE DESTROYED AND AT LEAST FIVE PEOPLE WERE JILLED AND SEVERAL MORE INJURED BUT AMONGST THE WRECKAGE, QUITE A FRIGHTENING FIND. DEBRIS THAT A TEAM OF UKRAINIAN FORENSIC EXPERTS BELIEVE BELONGS TO A RUSSIAN ZIRCON MISSILE. >> RUSSIA HAS INTRODUCED A NEW MISSILE SYSTEM THAT COULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFEND AGAINST. >> IF RUSSIA DID FIRE A ZIRCON MISSILE AT UKRAINE, I'LL JUST SAY RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT FOR SURE. THE EVIDENCE IS DISPUTED, WHICH I'LL EXPLAIN IN A BIT, BUT IF RUSSIA DID FIRE A ZIRCON MISSILE INTO UKRAINE, THAT WOULD BE A FIRST BECAUSE THE ZIRCON IS FROM A FAMILY OF MISSILE THAT ARE CONSIDERED VIRTUALLY UNINTERCEPTABLE, IMPOSSIBLE TO SHOOT DOWN. THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO TRAVEL AT MANY TIMES THE SPEED OF SOUND. THEY FLY RELATIVELY LOW, MAKING THEM HARDER TO SEE UNTIL IT'S TOO LATE AND WITH WHAT CAN WITH A PRETTY UNPREDICTABLE FLIGHT PATH. SO WHAT DO WE KNOW? BEFORE I SAY ANYTHING ABOUT WHAT THIS MISSILE IS CAPABLE OF, JUST KEEP IN MIND, IT'S NOT LIKE YOU CAN JUST FIND A MANUAL SOMEWHERE AND READ THE SPEC. WE'VE HAD TO PIECE TOGETHER WHAT RUSSIA'S DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS IT CAN DO AND THE WEIGH THAT AGAINST WHAT OTHER GOVERNMENTS AND EXPERTS AND ANALYSTS BELIEVE IT CAN DO. SO LET'S JUST START WITH THIS. HYPERSONIC MISSILES GO INSANITY FAST. >> MOST COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL JET AIRCRAFT TRAVEL SLOWER THAN MINUTES. AGAIN, IN THEORY WITH THE FOOTPRINT OF THE INTERCEPTOR AND THE DISTANCE IT CAN REACH TO IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND TO SHOOT DOWN THE VERY FAST MISSILES IF YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE AN INTERCEPTOR LOCATED IN EXACTLY THE RIGHT PLACE, BUT A LOT DEPENDS ON THE SPEED IN PRACTICE AS OPPOSED TO WHAT IS ACTUALLY CLAIMED. BUT SPEED ALSO GIVES HYPERSONIC MISSILE A DIFFERENT KIND OF ADVANTAGE. IF YOU HAVE EVER SEEN A ROCKET RE-ENTRY IN A MOVIE -- YOU KNOW THAT SOMETHING MOVING AT VERY HIGH SPEED HEATS UP THE AIR AROUND IT, BUT TRAVELS AT HYPERSONIC SPEED MAKES THE AIR SO HOT IT IS NOT EVEN REALLY AIR ANYMORE. LEAST NOT IN THE WAY WE'RE USED TO THINK ABOUT IT. >> AFTER SOLID, LIQUID AND GAS, PLASMA IS THE FOURTH STATE OF MATTER MADE UP OF PARTICLES THAT HAVE BEEN IONIZED. IT TURNS INTO A COMPLETELY SEPARATE STATE OF MATTER CALLED PLASMA WHICH IS BASICALLY LIKE A SOUP OF ATOMS THAT GET SO EXCITED THEY'RE KNOCKING ELECTRONS OFF OF EACH OTHER. THE BEST ANALOGY FOR THIS THAT I HAVE SEEN IS IF YOU IMAGINE AIR, LIKE A BUNCH OF WATER BALLOONS FLOATING AROUND, PLASMA IS WHEN THE WATER BALLOONS BREAK. AND WITH ALL OF THAT ELECTRON MAYHEM, YOU GET ELECTRICAL INTERFERENCE THAT MAKES IT REALLY HARD FOR RADAR TO DO ITS THING. >> BECAUSE THE AIR AROUND IT INTO AN ELECTRICAL CONDUCTOR, WHICH MEANS, OF COURSE, THAT IT IS UNDETECTABLE TO RADAR. >> ACCORDING TO THE U.S.-BASED MISSILE DEFENCE ADVOCACY ALIGNED ALLIANCE, DURING FLIGHT, IT IS COVERED BY A PLASMA CLOUD THAT ABSORBS ANY WAVES OF RADIO FREQUENCIES AND MAKES THE MISSILE INVISIBLE TO RADAR. THIS ALLOWS THE MISSILE TO REMAIN UNDETECTED ON ITS WAY TO THE TARGET. >> THIS CLASS OF HYPERSONIC MISSILE ISN'T JUST ABOUT SPEED. THIS IS RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY VIDEO. IT IS ALSO ABOUT FLIGHT PATH AND BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT BLAZES THROUGH THE SKY, IT MAY BE ABLE TO CONFOUND MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEMS IN TWO OTHER KEY WAYS. SO THIS GRAPHIC FROM THE CONVERSATION DOES A REALLY GOOD JOB SHOWING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HIGH-FLYING BALLISTIC MISSILE AND A LOW-FLYING HYPERSONIC MISSILE. YOU SEE THIS BIG, WIDE ARC THROUGH SPACE. A ROCKET LIKE THAT CAN ALSO TRAVEL AT HYPERSONIC SPEEDS, BUT IT IS A VERY LONG, VERY PREDICTABLE PATH. EASIER DO SHOOT DOWN. THE TYPE OF HYPERSONIC MISSILE IS SUPPOSED TO STAY LOW, WHICH IN THEORY COULD INTRODUCE A NEW PROBLEM FOR DEFENDERS. IMAGINE THE PLANET EARTH. THE GEOMETRY OF BEING ON A SPHERE LIMITS WHAT SOMETHING LIKE GROUND RADAR WOULD BE ABLE TO DETECT WHEN IT LOOKS UP INTO THE SKY BECAUSE YOU CAN'T REALLY SEE AROUND THE CURVATURE OF THE PLANET, RIGHT? SO BY THE TIME THE HYPERSONIC MISSILE FINALLY ARRIVES IN YOUR FIELD OF VIEW, IT'S TRAVELING SO FAST THAT IT MIGHT BE TOO LATE. >> IN THE CASE, IT WILL BE FLYING AT 10, 20 KILOMETRES, MAYBE HIGHER. RADAR IS NOT GOING TO PICK IT UP VERY FAR IN ADVANCE. AND THAT'S CERTAINLY GOING TO COMPLICATE CAN THE TASK OF INTERCEPTION. WE COULD TALK ABOUT HOW THE MISSILING CAN MAKE IT HARDER TO PREDICT WHERE THEY WILL LAND, BUT WE HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL BECAUSE AS I SAID BEFORE, WE ARE DEALING WITH AN UNKNOWN. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THE RUSSIANS ARE CONTEMPLATING TOP STORYING. IT IS A MODERN, SOMEWHAT SECRETIVE GLOBAL ARMS RACE. RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN, NORTH KOREA, FRANCE, INDIA, AUSTRALIA, JAPAN, ALL RESEARCH PROGRAMS LOOKING INTO HYPERSONIC MISSILE TECHNOLOGY ACCORDING TO THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE IN THE UNITED STATES. THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE HAS SPENT MORE THAN $8 BILLION SINCE 2019 ON PROGRAMS TO DEVELOP HYPERSONIC MISSILES. AND SPECIFICALLY, RUSSIA HAS MADE PRETTY GRAND CLAIMS ABOUT HOW ITS HYPERSONIC ARSENAL WILL CHANGE WARFARE AS WE KNOW IT. ABOUT FIVE YEARS AGO PUTIN ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD RUSSIA HAD TWO OPERATIONAL HYPERSONIC WEAPONS. TWO DIFFERENT TECHNOLOGIES BUT BOTH VERY FAST. >> A METEORITE TO THE TARGET IT BOASTED. >> A FEW YEARS LATER, IT HAD COMPLETED TESTING OF THE ZIRCON AND ONE OF THE WARSHIPS WOULD, FOR THE FIRST TIME, ACCORDING TO RUSSIAN STATE NEWS, BE ARMED WITH THEM, PART OF A NEW GENERATION OF UNRIVALLED WEAPONS SYSTEMS. ABOUT SEVEN MONTHS LATER A TEST FLIGHT AT NEARLY MAX RANGE. IT WAS JUST PRACTICE, BUT IT APPARENTLY WORKED. STILL, LAUNCHING AT UKRAINIAN TARGETS. THAT IS NEW. IF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENED. AND BUCKLE UP, THIS IS WHERE THE STORY GETS A LITTLE BUMPY. >> DID RUSSIA REALLY FIRE A ZIRCON MISSILE, WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE. THE TELEGRAM POST SHOWED VIDEO OF THE DEBRIS COLLECTED LAST WEEK. THE POST MENTIONS HOW THE FRAGMENTS HAVE THE MARKINGS AND YOU CAN LITERALLY SEE 3M22 LASER ETCHED THEY SAY IN SOME CASES INTO THE METAL PIECES. THIS IS A TEST FIRING BY RUSSIA TO SEE HOW THIS PERFORMS. >> BUT NOT EVERYONE IS CONVINCED. ONE REPRESENTATIVE SAID THE SO-CALLED LASER ETCHING LOOKED MORE LIKE NAIL SCRATCHES IN A PIECE OF RUBBLE. HARDLY DEFINITIVE. BUT IF THIS WAS A ZIRCON HYPERSONIC MISSILE, THERE ARE TWO WAYS OF LOOKING AT IT. EXAGGERATING ITS CLAIMS OF WHAT THE ZIR CON CAN DO. AND THERE THE CLAIMS HAVE TURNED OUT TO BE BASELESS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE CLAIMS ARE CREW, IT WOULD BE A DANGEROUS DEVELOPMENT FOR UKRAINE. IT ALREADY STRUGGLES TO SHOOT DOWN THE MORE CONVENTIONAL MISSILES AND HAS ASKED FOR MORE ASSISTANCE ON AIR DEFENCE. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THAT WITH THE MISSILING, DRONES, ONLY 44 WERE INTERCEPTED. IF RUSSIA DOES HAVE A BATTLE TESTED MISSILE, THAT'S ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO SHOOT DOWN, THREE QUESTIONS. HOW MANY DOES IT HAVE? HOW MANY CAN IT MAKE? AND WHAT WI EFFECTIVELY DEFEND AGAINST THEM?
