Imagine this. It is early two thousand and twenty one. Eastern Europe is about to witness a new war. Hungary and Romania had their share of conflicts
in the past. Transylvania, today Romanian, was part of
the Hungarian Kingdom for quite a long time. They fought on opposing sides in world war
one. And even today there’s still some animosity
left. Imagine the political situation deteriorating
rapidly. Imagine the EU or NATO don’t matter. And that the two countries suddenly
announce war on each other. How would such a war unravel? Watch to find out. assumed to be the same. And no third party government interferes. Both the active army and the reserves would
be mobilized as soon as possible. Romania has access to the Black Sea and a
navy to defend its shores. Hungary is landlocked. That means Romania is spending some of its
defense budget on a navy. Which is of fair size for the budget, but
largely inconsequential to this conflict. As the navy personnel too have some combat
training, Romania would look for the naval personnel whose naval systems experience isn’t
crucial, and start converting them to some sort of army unit. Even though such units might not need months
of training, as regular civilians would need, any such unit would enter combat at a later
date. By then, the war in the air would be in full
swing. Romanian air force is a mix of old Mig-21s,
modernized by Israel, and second hand F-16s, stuck roughly at 1990s tech level. Opposing them are Hungarian operated Gripens,
their tech level being roughly a decade or two old. Exact numbers of Mig-21s are not available. A year ago roughly two dozen were in service,
but they’re being retired as Romania is procuring more and more F-16s. Currently there may be a dozen and a half
Lancers active. With perhaps a dozen of those being the fighter
variant with a decent radar. Those are still semi decent platforms for
point defense. They use Isreali sourced targeting helmets
and not-so-obsolete missiles. But those planes are still too vulnerable
to be used on their own, in offensive actions. Their limited range would also be a big issue. To be used over the entire Hungar y, they’d
have to be based fairly close to the border. The two countries aren’t huge, but there’s
still considerable distance involved. And planes might start flying right away from
their home bases, before some units are relocated. Hungarian gripens would initially start from
a fairly central location. Romanian fighters are based in two separate
bases. But it's likely the Hungarians who’d have
to scatter their planes around. Romanians have more planes, and attacking
an airbase is something even fairly low tech planes can attempt to do. Romania could count on a dozen F16s effectively,
with perhaps a few more in the medium term. As well as on a dozen Lancers, with half a
dozen more used as decoys or strike planes. If an opportunity presents itself, Romania
could even try to use trainer jets, either as decoys or for bombing some unprotected
targets. Hungarian gripens are slightly more capable
in air to air combat even than the romanian F-16s. Their local networking capability linking
several gripens could come in very handy. If they are defending, gripens would also
be able to be fairly quiet, with their own radars off, as the ground radars would be
doing most of the work. IF Romania went on an air offensive deep inside
Hungary, It is thus likely the initial air battles would result in a few romanian planes
lost for every hungarian one. If Hungary tried to send their planes on strike
missions deep into Romania, they would have to cross a lot of hostile territory, due to
Romania being larger. And would be subject to the same issue of
silent interceptions by romanian fighters vectored by the ground control. In a close battle, Lancer Cs could be still
quite lethal. So it’s not impossible Hungary would lose
just as many planes as Romania in such a scenario. Especially considering Romania actually has
a decent Surface to air missile defense. Unlike Hungary. The Patriot battery shown has been delivered
in late 2020, so its crew likely needs more time to get up to full effectiveness. Hungary on the other hand has a token SAM
force. Though, against those jet trainers or even
MiGs they still might be effective. Given the risks, though, it’s likely neither
side would really go deep, but would be content to operate near the frontline and try to ambush
the other side’s fighters. Romania is in a better position there with
its more plentiful aircraft. They could perform air strikes on Hungarian
tactical positions and thus pretty much force the Hungarians to perform interceptions. Hungary would, on the other hand, be hard
pressed to find enough planes to do both combat air patrol and air support at the same time. Romanian air force is better prepared for
air to ground missions and has procured more targeting equipment and guided weapons. War in the air would, of course, be just a
backdrop for the larger conflict being fought below. Romania and Hungary share a border roughly
300 kilometers long. And the border area is pretty suitable for
large vehicle formations. Eastern half of Hungary is pretty much flat
farmland. As is the few dozen kilometer wide area from
the border to Bihor mountains. Going further into Romania would be quite
hard , due to the Carpathian mountain ranges. But who’d really go into whose territory? Hungarian army would initially be positioned
in these bases here. Romanin army units would start from these
bases here. Most of those bases house a brigade worth
of combat units. Which clearly shows Romania has a lot more
units. Hungarian ground army is usually credited
with some 10 to 11 thousand personnel. But its whole military also has over 11 thousand
joint command personnel, as it organizes its armed forces differently than the Romanians. Most of those joint command personnel are
there to support the ground army. Romania has a ground army force of some 36
thousand. And a more specialized joint command force
of 16 thousand. Given that they support both navy and air
force, a smaller percentage of those would really be supporting the Romanian army. Overall, when joint command units and those
Romanian retrained navy units are added, Romania would still have more than twice the troops. And would likely put them to good use. Opening as wide a front as possible. There aren’t any real obstacles on the border. No big rivers or even chains of urban centers. Just huge, flat swaths of farmland. Some, smaller rivers are, of course always
present, but initially the brigades closest to the borders could push forward unimpeded. In addition to those close by units, it’s
the rapid reaction special forces, deployed by air assets, that would also be used. Hungary has a regiment worth of forces trained
for such incursions. Romania has a whole brigade, roughly 3 times
more troops. But also, Romania has more aircraft with which
to actually deploy those troops. Assuming two thirds of each side’s fleet
is used, Romania might deploy some 600 lightly equipped troops in one go, while Hungary would
likely be limited to under 250. Those figures do not include troops delivered
by transport planes. Hungary has no such planes of its own, while
Romania has quite a fleet, and a battalion worth of paradrop trained troops. With two thirds of the planes, the whole 400
troops strong battalion could be deployed. Interestingly, there are three C-17 heavy
transport planes permanently stationed in Hungary. But those are shared planes, operated by multinational
crews. Even if somehow commandeered by Hungary, their
strategic transport design wouldn’t lead to immediate usefulness in this conflict. Hungary would also have more trouble actually
trying to deploy any force behind the initial frontline, due to Romanian air defenses. In addition to more planes and more SAMs,
Romania also operates mobile radar controlled anti aircraft artillery. Which could prove fatal to helicopters if
they happen to fly close to it. Shoulder launched missiles are also a big
threat to helicopters, and that’s an area where Hungary’s more modern Mistral missiles
are ahead of Romanian’s Strela variants. Attack helicopters could also be threatened
quite a bit by such missiles. Hungary has proper attack helicopters, soviet
Hinds, while Romania has repurposed some of its Puma transport helicopters to also serve
as attack helicopters. Hungarian Hinds have recently been overhauled
and returned to service. Still, Romanian Pumas actually have better
sensor and weapons capability. Hungary is equipping part of their small helicopter
fleet with some weapons capability. As a side note, Hungary has 20 H one four
five helicopters on order, with half of them to receive the weapons package. Its soviet Mi-8 helos are to be replaced by
a fleet of more modern and larger Puma variant helicopters. Overall, both sides are in the midst of sweeping
modernization efforts. Here’s the list of yet unmentioned systems
that are yet to be delivered. But let us get back to the frontline. Given the proximity to it, Romanian city of
Oradea might be threatened by that one hungarian frontline brigade. Especially the half of it west of the river
Crisul. In the south, Romanians might try to reach
the Hungarian city of Szeged. But as it is a bit far away and mostly behind
the river Tisza, which is quite wide, it might prove to be too big of a bite for a single
brigade. So taking the bridgehead over river Maros
and the town of Mako with it, might be preferred instead. But as days and weeks pass, during which both
sides would assemble their armies, Hungary would have little choice but to play defensively. Faced with twice as many romanian troops. Which are pretty decently equipped. Armored vehicle formations would have a field
day on such a flat frontline. And when it comes to tanks, Romania is far
ahead. Hungary has T-72s, and have started receiving
first of the 12 strong batch of ex German army Leopard 2s. The T-72s are fairly basic, roughly several
decades old tech level. Romanian tanks are more interesting, in the
sense that their TR-85 is an indigenous design. Initially inspired by the T-55 layout, then
enlarged, it eventually evolved in its later variant into something quite...Romanian. Given the sheer numbers, Romanian armor formations
would likely be able to dictate any direct tank battles. Hungary would, of course, try to lure the
tanks into areas teeming with ATGMs as well, then use their small tank force on a very
tiny piece of front, to maintain local numerical advantage. Romanians would avoid headlessly rushing alongside
the whole front. More likely, they’d pick a point or two
on the border to focus most of their firepower and numbers on. Infantry fighting vehicles would help a little,
but neither side uses them in great numbers. Armored personnel carriers are much more common,
though. But pretty much all are of Cold War era descent. With the possible exception of romanian upgrade
of their IFV, giving it fairly decent optics and Spike anti tank missile capability. As more and more troops populate the front
and Romanian numerical advantage becomes obvious, Hungarians would likely retreat from their
early winnings, picking the few fights they’re likely to win, like defending Szeged in the
south. But losing quite a bit of territory elsewhere. It’s not just the soldier numbers, though,
that’d favor Romania. As with armored vehicles, Romania simply has
more heavy firepower. And that continues to be evident with artillery
as well. Waiting for German made Panzerhaubitze 2000,
Hungary is without a proper, mobile artillery platform. The masses of towed guns would be brought
back from the reserve, but training crews for those would take time. Romanian guns are just as old, but they’re
at least being used and crews are trained on them. Especially with counting the multiple rocket
launchers, Romania just has many more artillery assets. Anti tank guided missiles are a mainstay of
all modern armies, but there too Hungarians are behind technologically. Today's stocks have dwindled to tiny figures. Romania’s recent shopping spree, on the
other hand, includes fairly new Israeli systems. As the whole populations rise to arms, the
disparity in mobilized populace would become evident. Romania would be mobilizing double the numbers. And adding them to low readiness units, likely
on par with various paramilitary units. Army reservists might be most useful of the
group, especially those that have served in the army in the last decade or so. Luckily for Hungary, such poorly trained and
very poorly equipped units would be quite inefficient in offensive operations. Probably needing even more than 3 to 1 ratios
in numbers to successfully take enemy territory. Morale might also be changing over time, especially
if Romanians, due to the nature of offensive operations, like taking urban areas, suffer
greater casualties. Nevertheless, the movement of the frontline
would be inevitable, if slow. Romania would simply be too much for Hungary
to handle. Besides twice the population, its economy
is weaker, especially in purchasing power parity terms. And Romania has been spending a lot more in
the last decade or so. Especially the last five years. There’s various other details not mentioned,
like the fact Romania has decent sized aerial drones while Hungary does not. Given the very low number of Hungarian combat
planes and SAM systems, Hungarian air force would eventually find themselves whittled
down to just several aircraft, while Romanians would still enjoy a few dozen left. So the whole swaths of their country would
be subjected to Romanian air strikes and perhaps more crucially air recon, without the ability
to counter them. That’d be the final nail in the coffin,
giving the Romanian troops on the ground ability to push even further. And some cities would end up surrounded. And possibly forced to surrender. It’s only the big losses in manpower, bigger
than Hungarian ones, as well as the obstacle that is the Tisza river, that might force
Romania to decide they’re happy enough with their conquests. And the war might eventually stop, with the
frontline still well away from Budapest. Nevertheless, the final outcome would still
be very much unfavorable for Hungary.
